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Addressing the "8 titles in 100 years fallacy" some of you keep using.

Fictional seeds do not count as seeds. Cal wants to throw away last season, that's not happening either. This is a statistical point he's making, and you playing games with fictional stats won't make your case, Mister Financial Planner.

The more you talk on this forum, the more I feel sorry for your clients. Your ethics are morally questionable.
You are the last one on here to question ethics. The guy was demonstrating that 2020 was a legitimate basketball team. Since there was no tournament that year there was no actual seed so projection is the only available data.

Go back to U6 or whatever low life team you support. You are most assuredly a KY hater of the worse sort.
 
Seed projection isn't the same as selection. Are you completely devoid of any semblance of awareness of this thing called "rules?"

And now you literally mock your own clients, implying that they are suckers.

You're a real piece of work.
And you say I make things up? I'm all for thoughtful discussion, but that is never your goal here.
 
They say it every year after we flame out of the NCAA Tournament.

"We only have won 8 titles in 100 years."

This is fallacy, and it's an audacious fallacy at that because it is not correct historically.

The NCAA tournament began in 1939. Between 1939 and 1998, UK won 7 national titles. That's 7 titles in 59 years, or one every 8.4 years. Between 1948 and 1998, UK's title to year ration was one title for every 7.1 years. If you remove the probation/forfeit years, it's actually one title every 6.7 years.

Between 1939 and 2012, UK won 8 titles, or one title every 9.1 years (8.6 years if you remove probation years or the 1954 season).

So even at our worst, we're winning a national title every 9.1 years before 2013 ( or 8.8 years if you remove the probation/forfeited seasons).

We're coming up on that actual historical average right now, in fact. One title for every 9.1 years, and it's been ten years since our last title. Based on historical precedent, it's time for a title.

Factor in the reality that UK was on probation for two years during the Pitino Era, and refused to participate in the 1954 NCAA Tournament - a season where they were undefeated. Remove those three years from factoring into the title ratio, and between 1939 and 2012, UK averaged a title once every 8.8 years.

Historically, UK is averaging:

1. An Elite Eight every 2.1 years (or an Elite Eight every other year). Historically, finishing with an Elite Eight is expected every other year.

2. A Final Four every 4.7 years.
3. A National Title Game appearance every 6.6 years.

4. A National Title every 9.9 years (1939-2021 *counting the Covid year, the two probation years, and the forfeited tournament year).

***Also, some of our fans are quick to point out the "gaps" between titles, but they rarely point out what resulted from those gaps, which was this: multiple head coaching changes happened *because* of the gaps.

The gap between 1978 and 1996 saw *three* different head coaches (one was fired and one was pressured out).

The gap between 1998 and 2012 also saw *three* different head coaches (one was fired and one was pressured out).


These coaching changes came because the gaps were not acceptable by Kentucky's historical standards and norms.

All this is to say, we need to get our actual history correct when we're making arguments. The "8 titles in 100 years" is a weak fallacy.

Our historical standard of excellence is better than that.
Are you factoring in the Covid year since you are being factually correct? I don’t see it anywhere. Shouldn’t be included in the numbers of how long it’s been since a title, since nobody could win it
 
They say it every year after we flame out of the NCAA Tournament.

"We only have won 8 titles in 100 years."

This is fallacy, and it's an audacious fallacy at that because it is not correct historically.

The NCAA tournament began in 1939. Between 1939 and 1998, UK won 7 national titles. That's 7 titles in 59 years, or one every 8.4 years. Between 1948 and 1998, UK's title to year ration was one title for every 7.1 years. If you remove the probation/forfeit years, it's actually one title every 6.7 years.

Between 1939 and 2012, UK won 8 titles, or one title every 9.1 years (8.6 years if you remove probation years or the 1954 season).

So even at our worst, we're winning a national title every 9.1 years before 2013 ( or 8.8 years if you remove the probation/forfeited seasons).

We're coming up on that actual historical average right now, in fact. One title for every 9.1 years, and it's been ten years since our last title. Based on historical precedent, it's time for a title.

Factor in the reality that UK was on probation for two years during the Pitino Era, and refused to participate in the 1954 NCAA Tournament - a season where they were undefeated. Remove those three years from factoring into the title ratio, and between 1939 and 2012, UK averaged a title once every 8.8 years.

Historically, UK is averaging:

1. An Elite Eight every 2.1 years (or an Elite Eight every other year). Historically, finishing with an Elite Eight is expected every other year.

2. A Final Four every 4.7 years.
3. A National Title Game appearance every 6.6 years.

4. A National Title every 9.9 years (1939-2021 *counting the Covid year, the two probation years, and the forfeited tournament year).

***Also, some of our fans are quick to point out the "gaps" between titles, but they rarely point out what resulted from those gaps, which was this: multiple head coaching changes happened *because* of the gaps.

The gap between 1978 and 1996 saw *three* different head coaches (one was fired and one was pressured out).

The gap between 1998 and 2012 also saw *three* different head coaches (one was fired and one was pressured out).


These coaching changes came because the gaps were not acceptable by Kentucky's historical standards and norms.

All this is to say, we need to get our actual history correct when we're making arguments. The "8 titles in 100 years" is a weak fallacy.

Our historical standard of excellence is better than that.
Gold standard. That's what he was given charge over. Turned it into something else.
 
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So basis is we get a title every nine years. Cal has 1 in 12 seasons. He has this year and 5 more to win another an he is on the correct pace.

Even with the every 7 years from 48-98, he has this one and two more to win to keep that pace.

Sum it all up, winning National titles is not easy
 
10 loss tubby had that 1st title, good for him. Never made it back to ff, though u can argue he got screwed big time against msu, and uab. Sutton never sniffed, bcg, lol. Uk had some a serious drought from 98 til 2011 for a ff, now we are another drought.
And like someone else posted, we made THREE coaching changes during that drought.

Wonder how long we will wait this time????
 
So basis is we get a title every nine years. Cal has 1 in 12 seasons. He has this year and 5 more to win another an he is on the correct pace.

Even with the every 7 years from 48-98, he has this one and two more to win to keep that pace.

Sum it all up, winning National titles is not easy
Mike Krzyzewski has 5 in 40 years and he is supposedly the GOAT. And the last two of those were absolute gifts in 2010 and 2015 because he didn’t have to play UK.
 
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So basis is we get a title every nine years. Cal has 1 in 12 seasons. He has this year and 5 more to win another an he is on the correct pace.

Even with the every 7 years from 48-98, he has this one and two more to win to keep that pace.

Sum it all up, winning National titles is not easy
That's some fuzzy math right there. We are talking about UK, the program, winning a NC every 9 years on average.

It has been 10 years since our last NC if we don't win it this year.

I am less concerned about our NC drought, because it is extremely difficult to win one now with all the parity, politics, and officials' biases against Cal.

I am more concerned about the downward trend of our program under Cal. His OAD successes is a thing of the past, and the Transfer Portal is a band aid.

We need this program rebuilt from top to bottom in my opinion before we end up ON the bottom like IU, UNC, and some other blue blood programs of the past.
 
That's some fuzzy math right there. We are talking about UK, the program, winning a NC every 9 years on average.

It has been 10 years since our last NC if we don't win it this year.

I am less concerned about our NC drought, because it is extremely difficult to win one now with all the parity, politics, and officials' biases against Cal.

I am more concerned about the downward trend of our program under Cal. His OAD successes is a thing of the past, and the Transfer Portal is a band aid.

We need this program rebuilt from top to bottom in my opinion before we end up ON the bottom like IU, UNC, and some other blue blood programs of the past.
How is it fuzzy math? Cal can't control what a prior coach did.

Cal's had 10 years between winning and we had a year that was canceled so he's right on par and everyone is acting like this is some incredible drought. If he wins this year he met the -average- which means we'd have some longer droughts and some shorter spans too. We had a 20 year drought and an 18 year drought, and we're not anywhere near approaching those. If Cal win's another within the next 5 years he's still doing fantastic. That'd be 2 championships in 18 seasons which is right, what do you know, on average.
 
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That's some fuzzy math right there. We are talking about UK, the program, winning a NC every 9 years on average.

It has been 10 years since our last NC if we don't win it this year.

I am less concerned about our NC drought, because it is extremely difficult to win one now with all the parity, politics, and officials' biases against Cal.

I am more concerned about the downward trend of our program under Cal. His OAD successes is a thing of the past, and the Transfer Portal is a band aid.

We need this program rebuilt from top to bottom in my opinion before we end up ON the bottom like IU, UNC, and some other blue blood programs of the past.
Math isn't fuzzy, it's number and they don't lie. I just cherry picked certain dates like everyone else in the thread. The thread is leaning to the Bash Cal side of the board so I just used his years here to show he is still on pace.

Also, I'm sorry but I don't see a need to rebuild a program that is the #6 team in the country right now. I'm not ignoring last year, but this one year turn around proves last year was the deviation from the norm
 
How is it fuzzy math? Cal can't control what a prior coach did.

Cal's had 10 years between winning and we had a year that was canceled so he's right on par and everyone is acting like this is some incredible drought. If he wins this year he met the -average- which means we'd have some longer droughts and some shorter spans too. We had a 20 year drought and an 18 year drought, and we're not anywhere near approaching those. If Cal win's another within the next 5 years he's still doing fantastic. That'd be 2 championships in 18 seasons which is right, what do you know, on average.
Op was talking about UK average years between NC, not individual coaches.

It is THE PROGRAM that is overdue, Cal is in charge of that program right now. If what he is saying applies to Cal, then we didn't give BCG and Eddie Sutton a fair shot at coaching long enough to win a NC.

Never mind.
 
Op was talking about UK average years between NC, not individual coaches.

It is THE PROGRAM that is overdue, Cal is in charge of that program right now. If what he is saying applies to Cal, then we didn't give BCG and Eddie Sutton a fair shot at coaching long enough to win a NC.

Never mind.
Overdue -on average- I just pointed out two much longer droughts. I don't think you grasp statistics well.
 
Math isn't fuzzy, it's number and they don't lie. I just cherry picked certain dates like everyone else in the thread. The thread is leaning to the Bash Cal side of the board so I just used his years here to show he is still on pace.

Also, I'm sorry but I don't see a need to rebuild a program that is the #6 team in the country right now. I'm not ignoring last year, but this one year turn around proves last year was the deviation from the norm
Cherry picking stats to me is what I call fuzzy math, which ever "side" is doing it.
As far as the team needing a total rebuild,
possibly 75% of this team will not be back next year.

What then? Transfer Portal? OAD? Where do we go from here? Hopefully Cal can pull another rabbit out of his hat like he did for this year's team.
 
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Mike Krzyzewski has 5 in 40 years and he is supposedly the GOAT. And the last two of those were absolute gifts in 2010 and 2015 because he didn’t have to play UK.
I agree with being gifted the last two. But Duke didn't have much prestige before him (two runner ups in their history and that's it). He's been to 12 Final Fours, won 5 championships, and was runner-up three times. So of 12 trips, K has played on Monday night eight times. Pretty incredible.

His run from 1986-1994 is ridiculous.

1986- Runner-up
1988- Final Four
1989- Final Four
1990- Runner-up
1991- Champions
1992- Champions
1994- Runner-up

I hate the guy because he's an egomaniac and is protected by the NCAA but that's an incredible resume. He is Duke whereas before Cal, we had four different coaches who won national championships.

After Roy Williams retired, there's only two active coaches with more than one title, Coach K and Jay Wright (Pitino is technically off the list). K is retiring this year. That's an insane stat.
 
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75% gone? Tyty is going to the draft, Mintz and Grady are seniors. That's the only ones for sure gone.

We will have: Oscar, Wheeler, brooks, Toppin, Hopkins, Collins, Allen, and Ware back. 8 of 11 players or 72.7% returning

We can't guess at who's leaving when there aren't any hard facts or pro options they are
 
75% gone? Tyty is going to the draft, Mintz and Grady are seniors. That's the only ones for sure gone.

We will have: Oscar, Wheeler, brooks, Toppin, Hopkins, Collins, Allen, and Ware back. 8 of 11 players or 72.7% returning

We can't guess at who's leaving when there aren't any hard facts or pro options they are
Allen and Hopkins are returning? You sure about that? Also, Oscar? Really? You SURE?
 
75% gone? Tyty is going to the draft, Mintz and Grady are seniors. That's the only ones for sure gone.

We will have: Oscar, Wheeler, brooks, Toppin, Hopkins, Collins, Allen, and Ware back. 8 of 11 players or 72.7% returning

We can't guess at who's leaving when there aren't any hard facts or pro options they are
You must have missed that little word "possibly". Carry on.
 
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If you examine it closely we tend to have short glory runs and deep droughts. We won half our titles from 1948 to 1958. Then, a 20 year drought with only 3 final fours in that span (66, 75, 78). After winning number 5 in 1978, we went 18 years without another and only two Final Fours (84, 93). We had another burst of short-lived glory from 96-98 and then a 13 year drought. From 2011-2015 we went to four FFs and won a championship.

Post integration, we’ve won 4 titles in roughly 42 seasons. We are due for another soon. I hope we get it.
 
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Allen and Hopkins are returning? You sure about that? Also, Oscar? Really? You SURE?


Until I hear otherwise yes. There is more evidence for them to return than leave. Oscar is not a draft ick and there is a big NIL offer for him here next year.

Allen and Hopkins are leaving based off what? The fact you wish for doom and gloom on Kentucky at every possible moment.
 
Now there are complete fabrications. Neither Joe B nor Tubby were pressured out. Joe B retired under his own power. Tubby went in search of something he could not get at KY. In fact, Uk was completely unprepared for his departure resulting in the BCG knee jerk. Sutton and for the most part BCG were fired due to contract (I use that term loosely in BCG's case) violations resulting from infractions or on the job behavior. I question your ability to tell the truth. Literally everything you have written is not factual or some cherrypicked misrepresentation.

And you did not address the gaps. You waved your hands and inferred utter BS about the coaches. So, yeah, you are spewing crap. Don't worry. We expect it from you.
This is absolutely false. Joe B and Tubby were both definitely on the hot seat. At least half the fan base wanted both of them gone. That’s being “pressured out”.
 
This is absolutely false. Joe B and Tubby were both definitely on the hot seat. At least half the fan base wanted both of them gone. That’s being “pressured out”.
Mitch tells a much different story. On one hand there is a bratty fanbase. On the other hand there is the actual administration that makes the calls. Guess which one matters.
 
If you think the fanbase doesn’t have an impact, you’re wrong.
Not the impact Foks on here fantasize about. From the little I hear, Raftards is considered the crazies. I think Cal has made his opinion known on the subject. Complete and utter disregard and contempt.
 
John ''Almost'' Calipari
Just for some perspective.

Only 15 coaches ever have won more than 1 championship.

There have been 83 tournaments. (Maybe 82 with Covid cancellation.)

Only 6 coaches have won more than 2 championships.

67 coaches have made the final four more than once. So that’s a bunch of coaches you could call almost. There have been ~160 final four games played.

Just because this is UK and you all feel entitled to win doesn’t mean there is some magic hire we can make that is gonna win at the rate you guys want/expect. It’s exceedingly rare for anyone to achieve what you all expect.

Cal has us in the running most years, I don’t think anyone else would have won more during his tenure. I’d wager if we didn’t snag him in 09 we might be looking more like Indiana than anyone would like.
 
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How do you account for 9-16 and not even getting an invite if you’re doing that? A seeding average that is
Yes simple, no one can doubt that last year was an absolutely horrendous year. However most people that know the cane fill UK should’ve had a onesie and 17 and they were headed toward one seed and 20 and I realize the fact is it didn’t happen. But to act like we weren’t close to onesies for the past few years not true
 
I’d wager if we didn’t snag him in 09 we might be looking more like Indiana than anyone would like.
The truth no one on this board wants to hear. The modern game is just different. Schools and prestige don't move the needle with recruits anymore. Any program is one bad hire away from irrelevancy.
 
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Until I hear otherwise yes. There is more evidence for them to return than leave. Oscar is not a draft ick and there is a big NIL offer for him here next year.

Allen and Hopkins are leaving based off what? The fact you wish for doom and gloom on Kentucky at every possible moment.
I never said they were leaving, Einstein. You are the master of assuming statements not in evidence.

By the way, I noticed that you left out Sharpe. Any reason for that? According to YOUR OWN LOGIC, you should have put his name on the list. Oops.
 
Yes simple, no one can doubt that last year was an absolutely horrendous year. However most people that know the cane fill UK should’ve had a onesie and 17 and they were headed toward one seed and 20 and I realize the fact is it didn’t happen. But to act like we weren’t close to onesies for the past few years not true
Okay, we were absolutely not headed toward a 1 seed in 2020. We had a fine year and were likely headed for a 2 seed, maybe a 3 but we 100% we’re not going to get a 1 seed in 2020. I’d say so if we were, no need to lie about it.
 
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Fictional seeds do not count as seeds. Cal wants to throw away last season, that's not happening either. This is a statistical point he's making, and you playing games with fictional stats won't make your case, Mister Financial Planner.

The more you talk on this forum, the more I feel sorry for your clients. Your ethics are morally questionable.
@FinancialPlannerZac @kybassfan

LowCountry, Zac/Bass were correct in their assertion. Just because there wasn't an actual seed doesn't mean you cannot predict what the seed would've been.

For example, Gonzaga was ranked #2 in the final AP poll of the 2019-2020 season. Saying they would've been a 1 seed is correct based on all available data.

Kentucky was ranking #8 in the final AP poll of the 2019-2020 season so saying they would've been a 2 seed is also correct based on available data. Even the worst-case scenario would have UK as a 3 seed during the 2019-2020 season.

People are complaining how we haven't had a 1 seed in the past 7 years are also missing the fact that our seed average post-2015 is the same as 2009-2015. It's 3, that's our seed average. While we haven't had any 1 seeds, we've had more 2 seeds.
 
@FinancialPlannerZac @kybassfan

LowCountry, Zac/Bass were correct in their assertion. Just because there wasn't an actual seed doesn't mean you cannot predict what the seed would've been.

For example, Gonzaga was ranked #2 in the final AP poll of the 2019-2020 season. Saying they would've been a 1 seed is correct based on all available data.

Kentucky was ranking #8 in the final AP poll of the 2019-2020 season so saying they would've been a 2 seed is also correct based on available data. Even the worst-case scenario would have UK as a 3 seed during the 2019-2020 season.

People are complaining how we haven't had a 1 seed in the past 7 years are also missing the fact that our seed average post-2015 is the same as 2009-2015. It's 3, that's our seed average. While we haven't had any 1 seeds, we've had more 2 seeds.
You can call it a complaint if you’d like, I’m going to call it a fact. It’s the longest we’ve ever gone without a one seed. You can extrapolate whatever opinion out of that statistical fact that you would like. That seed average also doesn’t account for having the literal worst year in Kentucky basketball history in the post 2015 span. That has to be accounted for somehow, it can’t just be thrown out. You're essentially "rating" the 2013 season and the 2021 season the same which isn't accurate at all. The "seed average" would be worse if we were good enough to get a 9 seed than it is since we were 9-16. That's a pretty drastic flaw. You have to account for 9-16 somehow.
 
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this thread is wild man. Cal fans in here trying to deface their supposed favorite teams history in support of a Coach. Insane.
By trying to contradict the point that the program has established precedent and thereby expectations to maintain precedent, they severely attempt to lower those expectations and devalue an established tradition that predates many of their own existences.

Some of them are just contrarians who seek to go against any perspective that flourishes outside of the bubbling caldron of soupy nihilism that they sip from nightly.
 
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