If you are a fan who measures success and failure by National Championships, John Calipari has already failed beyond all of his predecessors in UK's history except the last 14 years of Rupp's career (and, I think, Rupp earned it with 4 NCAA championships, a meaningful NIT, Helm's NC for his undefeated 1953/54 team, but even so, although I wasn't old enough to remember, I bet it was a long, loud rumble calling for his dismissal leading up to his final retirement!).
UK, the program, may go stretches without a Chamionship and survive, but Coaches don't!
No coach at UK, except Rupp at his career end, has kept his job after 9 consecutive seasons without a Championship..... until now - until John Calipari.
He has already outlived all of his modern predecessor's failures.
Tubby Smith was fired after 9 seasons without a National Crown. Coach Hall was "retired" after 7 non championship seasons. Eddie Sutton, ran out of town after 4 years and sanctions. Pitino only went 4 (eligible) seasons without a Championship before he won it all. Gillispie lasted 2 years before dismissal.
Calipari has not been able to get UK farther than an Elite Eight since 2015.
It has been 6 seasons since a Final Four, and, if Calipari fails to win it all next season, it will have been 10 seasons for him without a Championship - well, Cal ain't Rupp and he doesn't have 4 NC Trophies to stand behind!
(Really, it has already been 7 seasons without a FF and 10 seasons since a winning a Title - counting the covid year team -which is reasonable - they were not going to a FF, much less win a championship).
UK fans have more patience than they are given credit for, but it does eventually run out. They don't realistically expect a Championship every other year, but they do expect to be competing for it and winning more tournament games than the other blue bloods during any given 5 year period.
Ky WAS the winningest program in history for a reason: fan expectations.
You don't win a Championship if you can't make it past an Elite Eight for 7 years running....... That is not any Blue Blood fan's definition of competing.
If John Calipari doesn't reach a Final Four next season, history suggests he may be coaching his last team at UK.
I want Calipari to adjust, improve, validate his HOF legitimacy, and carry UK to a National Championship and many Final Fours for years to come. He "was" the right coach at the right time. After 18 years of being spoiled with deep benches and veteran led teams, not everyone loved the way he was winning, but there is no denying that he "was" winning, so he was given some grace and a certain amount of tolerance.
Now, he needs to be find a way to be the evolved coach for the future that the majority of BBN can get behind again. Otherwise, he needs to get out of the way and let someone else take the wheel.
Last Season, Oscar Tshiebwe fought like a warrior, every second of every game - for his family.
This year, I am concerned that John Calipari will be coaching every second - for his job!
If you are a somewhat reasonable fan, the are other ways to measure success.... and failures. But even by any and all other metrics, Calipari is also running out of success to to stand on, and tempting the patience of the BBN.
This isn't a bash Cal post. It is simply some history. We can disagree on how to interpret it, but we can't argue with the facts. The following is part of a more detailed write up I did for my personal More Horsepower 4 Kentucky Basketball FB page. If you want more numbers than you can digest, keep on reading!
Just a little of the History of UK coach's success and failure:
History of missing the tournament:
No coach since 1948 has missed the NCAA tournament 2 seasons in a row.
Calipari has now missed the tournament 2 seasons in a row and kept his job! (3 seasons if you count the covid year) (and, obviously excluding the 89-91 probation years).
History of winning games:
No coach since 1927 has won less than 12 games in one season.
In 2020/2021, Calipari only won 9 games.
History of losing games:
No coach in the known history of UK has lost more than 14 games in one season.
In 2020/2021, Calipari lost 16 games..... and, he lost 13 games in 2012/2013......and he has kept his job.
History of Sweet Sixteens:
High expectations: If UK falls short of the sweet 16 next season, it will be the only time since 1939 to go 3 seasons in a row without reaching at least a sweet 16 (4 if you count covid).
History of Elite Eights:
Since 1939, only 4 times has a UK coach fallen short of reaching an Elite Eight more than 2 seasons in a row. As of now, Calipari has missed the E8 2 seasons in a row.
History of Final Fours:
Since Rupp's retirement, only Tubby Smith has failed to make a Final Four more than 5 seasons in a row.
Calipari has now missed the Final Four 6 seasons in a row (7 counting the Covid year- you can decide if the covid team was capable of making a FF with the end of the year collapse and the Hagans debacle refusing to play (and temporarily leaving the team)).
High expectations: If Calipari doesn't make it to the Final Four next season, it will be 7 seasons without making a FF (8 counting the Covid year) - that is in rare UK coaching history since the NCAA Tournament began. (Rupp had a stretch of 7 seasons without a FF, and Tubby's stretch was 9 seasons)
History of Final Fours and keeping your job:
No UK coach has failed to make the Final Four 8 seasons in a row without being retired or fired within 1 year.
History of making it to the Title game:
It has been 7 seasons since Calipari has played in a championship game (8 if you count the Hagan's led covid year team- reasonable?).
Expectations: If Calipari falls short of the National Championship game next season (and that is a very tall order for any coach!), Coach Calipari and Tubby Smith will be the only coaches since 1941 to go more than 7 seasons in a row without playing in the National Championship game (Again, he has already surpassed that mark if you count the covid team). Tubby Smith was fired after missing the NC game 9 seasons in a row.
P.S. never let anyone call you an entitled fan - there is no such thing as an entitled fan; it is an oxymoron. Fans are the customer with all of the money that pays for the program that they support. When fans close their pocketbooks and stop following their team, programs fail.
There are only entitled coaches, admins, and sometimes, players. They work for our money. Your taxes do not pay for this program. Everytime you watch a game - you paid them through their TV contracts; everytime you buy apparel, every time you buy a ticket at Rupp and a hot dog - you pay them; everytime you buy a shoe- you pay them; if you are a booster or you buy a product that the coaches or players endorse through NIL - they get paid.
YOU are the boss. You wouldn't go back to a restaurant where an owner talked down to you or called you entitled just because you wanted good food, while throwing your money in their cash drawer. And you wouldn't go back to an amusement park with sub par rides.
You own a part of your team, your coach, your program.
