That is a concern, injury. But how much of one, what % of pre-season projected 1st round picks have significant injury that season? Is it 5%, 3%, 1%, less? And of that small %, how many of those don’t fully recover? I think we are talking about probably less than a 0.5% risk. I’d be just as worried about him getting trucked by Zion in a preseason game, ending his rookie year and most definitely setting him back on that 2nd contract. That is also very unlikely, but possible.
So i think it then comes down to factors other than monetary ones, which can be debated both ways. Like how important is an education to Reed? How ready is he emotionally and maturity wise to be an adult living on his own, in a very different environment, and new responsibilities, than he’s ever known? How much has he enjoyed “the college experience” (or not) and want to have that 1 more year? How much does he feel responsible for ending generational poverty for his family (not applicable for Reed or DJ)? How bad does he want one more year at his dream school, for a chance to maybe do something historic?