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Incredible rally after raising rates again today by the fed. Bad news is becoming good news for the time being.

Ok so explain how this happened lol.

Because once I saw Wal-marts earings the other day, the talks of the other big players not having good showings AND the 75 point rate hike.. I figured for sure stocks would be down. Yet the rally like almost 3% ? In what, one of their best days in 2-3 months? 🥴🤪
 
Ok so explain how this happened lol.

Because once I saw Wal-marts earings the other day, the talks of the other big players not having good showings AND the 75 point rate hike.. I figured for sure stocks would be down. Yet the rally like almost 3% ? In what, one of their best days in 2-3 months? 🥴🤪
Simply put, the bad news is already baked in to the market so things that aren't as terrible as estimated get bought on a day/week when some of the biggest companies in the world report earnings.
 
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Who is not true for, specifically?
One example and probably the best ever was WD Gann who used mathematics and a knowledge of market cycles. He traded the markets from the early 1900's until 1955, when he passed. He wrote several books wherein he described his methods, but his books were intentionally written cryptically and thus difficult for others to easily reproduce his results. Gann, during his life, publicly predicted, in a NY financial publication, the future price of the Dow Industrial Avg on three different occasions. His predictions were for the future price of the Dow one year in advance and on all three occasions, his predictions were accurate within one dollar on the day specified. So, markets can be timed with great precision, as the markets are not random. The one disadvantage for Gann was that he didn't have the advantage of computers and is why he hand-charted the Dow daily and used those charts as the basis of his work. Some of his writings are online in PDF files for download if you can find them.
 
One example and probably the best ever was WD Gann who used mathematics and a knowledge of market cycles. He traded the markets from the early 1900's until 1955, when he passed. He wrote several books wherein he described his methods, but his books were intentionally written cryptically and thus difficult for others to easily reproduce his results. Gann, during his life, publicly predicted, in a NY financial publication, the future price of the Dow Industrial Avg on three different occasions. His predictions were for the future price of the Dow one year in advance and on all three occasions, his predictions were accurate within one dollar on the day specified. So, markets can be timed with great precision, as the markets are not random. The one disadvantage for Gann was that he didn't have the advantage of computers and is why he hand-charted the Dow daily and used those charts as the basis of his work. Some of his writings are online in PDF files for download if you can find them.
Cursory Wiki review

“"I interviewed W.D. Gann's son, an analyst for a Boston bank. He told me that his famous father could not support his family by trading but earned his living by writing and selling instructional courses. When W.D. Gann died in the 1950s, his estate, including his house, was valued at slightly over $100,000." Larry Williams, in the book The Right Stock at the Right Time,[17]also stated he met W.D Gann's son. Larry Williams stated that John Gann said "He asked why if his dad was as good as everyone said, the son was still smiling and dialing calling up customers to trade". Larry Williams in the same book says "I also met F.B Thatcher who had been Gann's promoter and advance man who said that Gann was just a good promoter, not necessarily a good stock trader".”

 
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Cursory Wiki review

“"I interviewed W.D. Gann's son, an analyst for a Boston bank. He told me that his famous father could not support his family by trading but earned his living by writing and selling instructional courses. When W.D. Gann died in the 1950s, his estate, including his house, was valued at slightly over $100,000." Larry Williams, in the book The Right Stock at the Right Time,[17]also stated he met W.D Gann's son. Larry Williams stated that John Gann said "He asked why if his dad was as good as everyone said, the son was still smiling and dialing calling up customers to trade". Larry Williams in the same book says "I also met F.B Thatcher who had been Gann's promoter and advance man who said that Gann was just a good promoter, not necessarily a good stock trader".”

It was well known that Gann and his son didn't get along because his son wanted his father to spoon feed him his methods. Gann wouldn't do it because he wanted his son to earn it, as he obviously did. I've read that Gann was worth in excess of 50 million at the time of his death ($500M in today's dollars). Choose who you want to believe. In the past 20 years or so, using Ganns understanding that markets are "cycle driven" and some salient information gleaned from the author John Murphy regarding technical indicators, I have developed my own system to time the markets. It's not necessarily easy and my own success has been long in coming but I can tell you from my own personal experience, again using Gann's understanding of market cycles, the use of recalibrated technical indicators applied across time, that the markets can indeed be timed. I also believe there are likely many others that successfully time the markets because if I've done it, others have as well. I can tell you that they can be timed with precision for extremely high profit. The most difficult part is doing it "in the moment" ... the "hard right edge", that is where the skill and ability lie but you must have the "system" to see the cycle. The trick is having the tools and understanding in using them. You can't purchase the tools ... software in a box off the shelf ... you have to build them. As John Murphy told me, there are two choices ... find someone else's "system" and make it your own ... or ... build your own from scratch, which is what I've done. So, when you say that markets cannot be timed, I'm simply telling you that's not true. I understand why you believe it but it's simply not the case. Look at my post on Oct 5, 2021 regarding IONQ. Those comments were based solely on market cycle alignment.
 
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It was well known that Gann and his son didn't get along because his son wanted his father to spoon feed him his methods. Gann wouldn't do it because he wanted his son to earn it, as he obviously did. I've read that Gann was worth in excess of 500 million at the time of his death. Choose who you want to believe. In the past 20 years or so, using Ganns understanding that markets are "cycle driven" and some salient information gleaned from the author John Murphy regarding technical indicators, have developed my own system to time the markets. It's not necessarily easy and my own success has been long in coming but I can tell you from my own personal experience, again using Gann's understanding of market cycles, the use of recalibrated technical indicators applied across time, that the markets can indeed be timed. I also believe there are likely many others that successfully time the markets because if I've done it, others have as well. I can tell you that they can be timed with precision for extremely high profit. The most difficult part is doing it "in the moment" ... the "hard right edge", that is where the skill and ability lie but you must have the "system" to see the cycle. The trick is having the tools and understanding in using them. You can't purchase the tools ... software in a box off the shelf ... you have to build them. As John Murphy told me, there are two choices ... find someone else's "system" and make it your own ... or ... build your own from scratch, which is what I've done. So, when you say that markets cannot be timed, I'm simply telling you that's not true. I understand why you believe it but it's simply not the case. Look at my post on Oct 5, 2021 regarding IONQ. Those comments were based solely on market cycle alignment.
If markets can be timed consistently and accurately you would have unlimited wealth, no?
 
If markets can be timed consistently and accurately you would have unlimited wealth, no?
No ... not necessarily. You would have access to a level of wealth many don't, but I understand what you're asking. Timing the market isn't necessarily easy nor should it be ... it takes a lot of work and a personality to master the challenges of performing efficiently, so the person "behind the wheel" matters and is not for everyone. The shortest of timeframes are the most difficult with the smallest trade profits but the markets can be traded in any timeframe to suit your lifestyle. The shorter the timeframe the more difficult it is to effectively trade it and requires your constant daily attention. The easier read is in the longer timeframes for single stocks and the longer-term option positions are where you really build wealth over time. You can't master the longer-term charts until you've mastered the short-term charts. This is by no means "get rich quick" because it's not. I only responded to your post earlier because I wish someone would have planted that seed in my thick head years earlier. It wasn't until after reading some of Gann's books and studied with a group out of Australia, who taught Gann's methods, did I start trying to figure it out on my own, with the encouragement of John Murphy. My system isn't built on algorithms but requires live reading of raw, unfiltered financial data. It's much easier to read the longer-term intervals than scalping the short intervals but working in the shortest intervals is where the learning takes place in the shortest amount of time. There are no teachers for this, other than Gann's cryptic books, and my experience with the charts themselves. The historical chart (dead candles) has been my best and most reliable teacher ... because there are no lies and ignorance there. I've made MANY mistakes but that's the only way to learn. But, back to your question ... there's plenty of money to be made but the real goal is the quality of your chart read and ability to navigate the trade entry and exit efficiently. My apologies for the long-winded post.
 
Today's action helped by Joe Manchin's flip on the Inflation Reduction Act.
It was zooming before that, too, not sure what that company has that other solar stocks don’t. I also wonder about the followup news of leftover solar panels polluting the environment from an article a week or two ago. Anyway, I’ve made close to $6,000 off 100 sh in less than 2 days and have preferred oil and gas stocks in 2022.
 
Today's action helped by Joe Manchin's flip on the Inflation Reduction Act.
James, you enjoying this stunning good month while we can? I will have my finger on the sell button as we near September. Have you been accumulating value?
 
James, you enjoying this stunning good month while we can? I will have my finger on the sell button as we near September. Have you been accumulating value?
Not sure DLTR is value at 24x but I inched in this week. Sadly I wasn't able to add to any positions before the big pop. Been more in the mode of waiting for the market to come to me so it's been a quiet month.

Today is a great day to sell. More days should come. Only thing I regret selling so far is RBLX. Still have a small position though.
 
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It was zooming before that, too, not sure what that company has that other solar stocks don’t. I also wonder about the followup news of leftover solar panels polluting the environment from an article a week or two ago. Anyway, I’ve made close to $6,000 off 100 sh in less than 2 days and have preferred oil and gas stocks in 2022.
Congrats! I've done well with energy too. I know ENPH isn't the only one but they have a home battery solution for Europeans dependent on Russian gas. Just imagine the home HVAC market there this year as well. CARR has not moved though.

Well, on second glance it's started back up to the upper right the past couple weeks.
 
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Anyone know why Pelosi snatched up a bunch of NVDA? (Allegedly)
Looking at the chart on NVDA and its recent downside move, she may be buying NVDA to cover short positions to close bearish trades. If that's true she would have made some nice profit assuming she caught most of the move.
 
AMZN missed badly on earnings announcement but stock up $14-$15 today with overnight gap. Thoughts?
FWIW, Cramer’s comments:

Amazon (AMZN) fires 100,000 people. Turns out Amazon is the go-to option for consumers reacting to the closed shelves at brick-and-mortar stores. High-margin areas like advertising and Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud business are just juggernauts. Will health care be next frontier for subscribers? Company catches actual price target raises from analysts. Shares up more than 12% in the premarket.
 
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FWIW, Cramer’s comments:

Amazon (AMZN) fires 100,000 people. Turns out Amazon is the go-to option for consumers reacting to the closed shelves at brick-and-mortar stores. High-margin areas like advertising and Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud business are just juggernauts. Will health care be next frontier for subscribers? Company catches actual price target raises from analysts. Shares up more than 12% in the premarket.

So many watch earnings/share with great interest but many times the stock price seems to be totally detached from that reality. I find it interesting because it's certainly not all about EPS, at least relative to the announcement event. The more interesting, for me, is how the pundits try to spin it, at least in that moment. But ... that's what they get paid to do.
 
So many watch earnings/share with great interest but many times the stock price seems to be totally detached from that reality. I find it interesting because it's certainly not all about EPS, at least relative to the announcement event. The more interesting, for me, is how the pundits try to spin it, at least in that moment. But ... that's what they get paid to do.
True, things like debt and gross margins often aren’t mentioned by some analysts in their excitement over eps. AMZN is pretty far from its high, I bought a few shares today for a trade because it’s probably too big to have an amazing return long term.
 
Sold UNM at 36.07. 44% gain with dividends reinvested. Looking at INTC.
Great trade!

I thought INTC was finally ready to benefit with a new CEO, limited supply and new investments in the US. Not the case at all. AMD is still gaining share. I'm not in because I have others in the space but a nice yield pays you to wait. Otoh, KLAC has been a horse up 100+ points in a month.
 
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Reckon September will be the bad month it usually is? Might be time to take some profit on cyclicals.
 
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Purchased 100 INTC at $35.51. Second time owning Intel. Purchased 100 PARA (Viacom/CBS) at $23.97. Both are quality issues and part of IRA. I already own PARA in a taxable account. Paid too much.

Stay tuned.

Good luck everyone.
You are the thread King of picking the low hanging fruit! I wish you lots of luck but I might have split 50/50 with AMD or something like AMAT that hasn't popped as much as KLAC or LRCX. I totally understand your dividend strategy though and I have plenty in my IRA's. I reinvest every last one of them.
 
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Reckon September will be the bad month it usually is? Might be time to take some profit on cyclicals.
Yes but although it's my favorite month personally, I'm thinking cyclicals other than energy and banks. I'm still below benchmark on oil names so I doubt I sell a share of PXD with that variable dividend. Plus I lightened up PXD and my energy fund by 25% already. Other sectors are definitely on the table to sell.
 
Yes but although it's my favorite month personally, I'm thinking cyclicals other than energy and banks. I'm still below benchmark on oil names so I doubt I sell a share of PXD with that variable dividend. Plus I lightened up PXD and my energy fund by 25% already. Other sectors are definitely on the table to sell.
I’ve been heavy into energy with oil and gas, one solar, one coal and a power infrastructure stock:
Our updated top 6 two year returns of current holdings per Yahoo as of today, FWIW:
Me
1) ARLP
2) OVV
3) ENPH
4) OXY
5) NUE
6) PWR

My wife
1) MTDR
2) DVN
3) ENPH
4) MP
5) ARCB
6) MYRG
 
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I’ve been heavy into energy with oil and gas, one solar, one coal and a power infrastructure stock:
Our updated top 6 two year returns of current holdings per Yahoo as of today, FWIW:
Me
1) ARLP
2) OVV
3) ENPH
4) OXY
5) NUE
6) PWR

My wife
1) MTDR
2) DVN
3) ENPH
4) MP
5) ARCB
6) MYRG
You got some good stocks there. After a rough stretch there from 2014-2020, Joe Craft has had quite the rebound the last couple of years with ARLP.

I wish I had bought NUE back in early 2020 coming out of the pandemic ... but I missed that dip, I still own it at a good level, just not what it should have been. They basically own their business cradle to grave and can control price … it’s starting to look like a monopoly.

And, ENPH, here again, would have loved to loaded up on that in 2018/2019 (or earlier) when it was obvious that solar was booming and we would all be gazillionaires, literally, buying that in single digits when it is 300 now, wow, but … I still own some, and it just keeps going up … enjoying the ride while it lasts. Heck, it dipped to 175 less then a month ago …

Thing is, all three of those stocks, I knew exactly what was happening and when. because I work closely with all of these sectors and was still late too pull the trigger … arrgghh.
 
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MO bought anytime under 45/share is a no-brainer IMO, but I get it that many won't buy Marlboro "for morals reasons". (even though sugar/obesity probably kills more people)

Getting ready to raise the dividend later this month for the 53rd straight year, It should go to $ 3.76/share from the current $ 3.60 per share.

With dividends reinvested, It's the best performing stock in the HISTORY of the stock market.

MO money.
 
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PLUG and BE were studs this week up 20%. I own an ETF (ICLN) with ENPH and PLUG as top 10 positions.

We now have a broad based rally that can move higher for a while longer until the fed cools it off. Taking some profits is also not a bad strategy in these moments.
 
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I’ve been heavy into energy with oil and gas, one solar, one coal and a power infrastructure stock:
Our updated top 6 two year returns of current holdings per Yahoo as of today, FWIW:
Me
1) ARLP
2) OVV
3) ENPH
4) OXY
5) NUE
6) PWR

My wife
1) MTDR
2) DVN
3) ENPH
4) MP
5) ARCB
6) MYRG
I have some exposure as mentioned and own some MP outright. That deal with GM was very nice to see.
 
You got some good stocks there. After a rough stretch there from 2014-2020, Joe Craft has had quite the rebound the last couple of years with ARLP.

I wish I had bought NUE back in early 2020 coming out of the pandemic ... but I missed that dip, I still own it at a good level, just not what it should have been. They basically own their business cradle to grave and can control price … it’s starting to look like a monopoly.

And, ENPH, here again, would have loved to loaded up on that in 2018/2019 (or earlier) when it was obvious that solar was booming and we would all be gazillionaires, literally, buying that in single digits when it is 300 now, wow, but … I still own some, and it just keeps going up … enjoying the ride while it lasts. Heck, it dipped to 175 less then a month ago …

Thing is, all three of those stocks, I knew exactly what was happening and when. because I work closely with all of these sectors and was still late too pull the trigger … arrgghh.
Me, too, finally bit the bullet and bought these in July, really have zoomed upward. Arguing with myself about high PE stocks over the years has cost me lots of money, value investor until I feel stupid watching others get rich!
 
You are the thread King of picking the low hanging fruit! I wish you lots of luck but I might have split 50/50 with AMD or something like AMAT that hasn't popped as much as KLAC or LRCX. I totally understand your dividend strategy though and I have plenty in my IRA's. I reinvest every last one of them.
Back around 1997 or so, I built PCs for side-hustle profit. Got burned really bad on some AMD chips and accompanying motherboards. I swore on Intel ever since. Kinda crazy since AMD operated fabs here in Austin years ago. Many of former co-workers at NXP were AMD employees before fab closures. AMD chips are highly rated these days.

AMAT: worked 3 months as a contractor for Applied Materials in the clean room assembling chip-making equipment just after retiring from the Army. Top-notch organization. Have not pulled the trigger yet.
 
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Back around 1997 or so, I built PCs for side-hustle profit. Got burned really bad on some AMD chips and accompanying motherboards. I swore on Intel ever since. Kinda crazy since AMD operated fabs here in Austin years ago. Many of former co-workers at NXP were AMD employees before fab closures. AMD chips are highly rated these days.

AMAT: worked 3 months as a contractor for Applied Materials in the clean room assembling chip-making equipment just after retiring from the Army. Top-notch organization. Have not pulled the trigger yet.
Green light us on when you start buying tech stocks since I greatly respect your cautious investing approach! I hold 30 sh NVDA and only a few shares of ASML and GOOGL in the tech sector currently. Do you still work in the tech sector, Austin, at NXP?
 
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Not sure DLTR is value at 24x but I inched in this week. Sadly I wasn't able to add to any positions before the big pop. Been more in the mode of waiting for the market to come to me so it's been a quiet month.

Today is a great day to sell. More days should come. Only thing I regret selling so far is RBLX. Still have a small position though.
September may well be a “Come to Us” month to calmly make some buys before things get a bit crazy around Nov elections and Fed watching.
 
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