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Stock Advice Thread

I'm 25% long, 25% short, 25% gold and 25% cash

There isn't a real reason to see any significant gains over the next several months so I'm not playing the "buy the dip" game. If a recession is looming, expect these up and down cycles to continue, but the current seems to me to be much more on the downside for the near term.
 
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Deeeefense said:
I'm 25% long, 25% short, 25% gold and 25% cash

There isn't a real reason to see any significant gains over the next several months so I'm not playing the "buy the dip" game. If a recession is looming, expect these up and down cycles to continue, but the current seems to me to be much more on the downside for the near term.
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Up, down , all around……my 100% dividend portfolio just keeps paying.
 
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Deeeefense said:
I'm 25% long, 25% short, 25% gold and 25% cash

There isn't a real reason to see any significant gains over the next several months so I'm not playing the "buy the dip" game. If a recession is looming, expect these up and down cycles to continue, but the current seems to me to be much more on the downside for the near term.
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Shorting any particular sector? I have a few ETFs on my list.
 
UKWoodford said:
Up, down , all around……my 100% dividend portfolio just keeps paying.
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Quality dividend paying stocks always hold their value much better than the broad market in down cycles, because so long as the divey stays the same, the lower the price of the stock, the higher the percentage of divey to the stock price which makes it more valuable.
 
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Deeeefense said:
Quality dividend paying stocks always hold their value much better than the broad market in down cycles, because so long as the divey stays the same, the lower the price of the stock, the higher the percentage of divey to the stock price which makes it more valuable.
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I just don’t see how you lose by buying dividend Kings or Dividend aristocrats when they are on sale and holding them. My prized possession right now is the XOM I bought at 42/share during covid.
 
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I recently discovered you can set up an Excel spreadsheet to be a stock price tracker. I have three retirement accounts, two 401/403s from work and a personal Roth IRA.

The 401/403s have a limited set of mostly mutual funds you can choose from, so I created a sheet for each 401 and have it tracking all the mutual funds so I can check out "detailed" performance of them all on one page.

The Roth IRA I opened on my own, I just googled top mutual funds, grab all the stock symbols from the first 20 results, and now I can track them more easily to determine when i should change my investments.

Although I'm not really reallocating my assets any at this point since everything keeps going down a ton, though it looks like I had a good day today. Luckily it looks like I ahd done a pretty good job of picking the top performing assets over a 5-year period so hopefully when things start going back up that will continue to be the trend.

Here's an example from the sheet for the 403 account. All the numbers update automatically when I open the sheet or press one button to manually update the data. The yellow ones are the ones I am invested in. There are other columns of data you can add but I don't really give a shit about those.

MFJR-SCR-20220624-tknp.png
 
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In addition to performance, asset allocation, expense ratio, turnover, loads and other fees are also considerations when investing in mutual funds.
 
jameslee32 said:
In addition to performance, asset allocation, expense ratio, turnover, loads and other fees are also considerations when investing in mutual funds.
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Way back in the day I never could seem to allocate them favorably, the bad would lower the good, then market conditions would sometimes change things faster than I could move…eventually went more to individual stocks.
 
lz said:
Way back in the day I never could seem to allocate them favorably, the bad would lower the good, then market conditions would sometimes change things faster than I could move…eventually went more to individual stocks.
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High frequency trading had an negative effect as well so they changed the rules. But I recall the Magellan Fund doing very very well for me in my 401k in the 80's and 90's before I was laid off from my first job.
 
jameslee32 said:
High frequency trading had an negative effect as well so they changed the rules. But I recall the Magellan Fund doing very very well for me in my 401k in the 80's and 90's before I was laid off from my first job.
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Tremendous fund back in the day, Oakmark another.
 
You have $120,000 to invest. $20,000 into I-series bonds, what do you do with the other $100K? You’re 48-55 years old, putting close to max in 401Ks but no Roth

- S&P 500 ETF
- collection of good dividend paying stocks
- real estate (local rental)
- resort AirBnB

??

Can you get diversification, income, growth, and controlled risk :)
 
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Warren Buffett would probably say put it in an S&P 500 fund and forget about it. Nice that you have options. I have a relative in her 50s who loves European travel, so she bought a beautiful gated, small place with her London BF on a Spanish beach resort area an hour or so north of Barcelona for $105,000. She says the food over there is very reasonably priced and excellent, a nice big pool, shops and restaurants are handy, she’s in position to travel over Europe, can lease her place when in the US. Whatever floats your boat.
 
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lz said:
Warren Buffett would probably say put it in an S&P 500 fund and forget about it. Nice that you have options. I have a relative in her 50s who loves European travel, so she bought a beautiful gated, small place with her London BF on a Spanish beach resort area an hour or so north of Barcelona for $105,000. She says the food over there is very reasonably priced and excellent, a nice big pool, shops and restaurants are handy, she’s in position to travel over Europe, can lease her place when in the US. Whatever floats your boat.
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Kritikal, my wife and I used to be big travelers, getting long in the tooth, but are going to Spain in late September, the food and driving trips around the country interest us. Ireland was a great trip, SW part and rented an affordable driver. Italy was also fun, more expensive than Ireland, things not as smooth without a driver. Anyway, if in your situation, danged if I wouldn’t consider what I said above. If you’re on Facebook, I can send their pictures, etc, on a recent trip. Mr Market nicer today, but I may do some etf shorting, I just don’t like the trend.
 
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I just bought 50 TMV, toe in the water, not much of a shorter.
 


Michael Burry is a lesser known hedge fund manager that is gaining popularity because he has predicted the last 2 huge down turns and made a ton of money off the first one.
 
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Watch oil, nat gas and coal stocks tomorrow morning and another week or two at least, I’m already in heavy, all got hit hard today despite a Supreme Court ruling that should have caused the opposite effect. Window dressing the end of 3rd Qtr reports or fear of a recession taking everything down?
 
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Hmmm, oil and gas up some, coal down some, no trend but some of the current admin sounded VERY upset late yesterday about the Supreme Court ruling.
 
Another grin and bear it day in the stock market-oil, coal and ag getting crushed again, believe a world over supply hurting energy, but how long will that last with high temps followed by winter? Get you a coal fueled car cheap while you can!
 
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Out of my 4 coal stocks, 3 getting crushed, but ARLP up a little for some reason. I’m on HOLD today, no use buying or selling, believe we capitulate in some sectors this summer, hopefully not down to bankruptcy!
 
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Nice PM relief rally! In the past couple months, sold some VGENX, AGG, STWD, DD, RBLX, IIPR on rallys. Other than dollar cost averaging, buying more BX, ABBV, JEPI, VALE, HON on dips. Started new SYY, SRE positions.
 
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jameslee32 said:
Nice PM relief rally! In the past couple months, sold some VGENX, AGG, STWD, DD, RBLX, IIPR on rallys. Other than dollar cost averaging, buying more BX, ABBV, JEPI, VALE, HON on dips. Started new SYY, SRE positions.
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Got SYY recently, food related has to work, huh? Over the years have held IIPR, VALE, ABBV, RBLX, HON, some good ones if patient.
 
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Got a question on Stock Options.

Company my wife works for is essentially offering about 5,000 options, on a monthly vesting cycle, for roughly 0.30 cents each. It's a tech startup company and they do make a good, niche product. We both think it's worth it to pay the $1750 for the stock and just see if it ever amounts to anything.. God forbid the stock ever opens at $5 or something.

But my question is:

If a company is offering stock, especially as an alternative to salary, they should be planning to go public at some point, right? I feel like this would be a shitty practice otherwise and employees wouldn't go for it. And how likely is it that staff at a company go in on these stock options only to never even have the opportunity to "sell it" as the company never goes public? I'm just curious how this plays out once she owns the stock.

My wife doesn't know much about stocks and investing at all, and I'm not great at it either. She asked if this was worth it to buy, and while I think it's definitely worth the risk, it got me thinking.
 
LineSkiCat14 said:
Got a question on Stock Options.

Company my wife works for is essentially offering about 5,000 options, on a monthly vesting cycle, for roughly 0.30 cents each. It's a tech startup company and they do make a good, niche product. We both think it's worth it to pay the $1750 for the stock and just see if it ever amounts to anything.. God forbid the stock ever opens at $5 or something.

But my question is:

If a company is offering stock, especially as an alternative to salary, they should be planning to go public at some point, right? I feel like this would be a shitty practice otherwise and employees wouldn't go for it. And how likely is it that staff at a company go in on these stock options only to never even have the opportunity to "sell it" as the company never goes public? I'm just curious how this plays out once she owns the stock.

My wife doesn't know much about stocks and investing at all, and I'm not great at it either. She asked if this was worth it to buy, and while I think it's definitely worth the risk, it got me thinking.
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The only experience I have is through a brother in law. About 30+ years ago he left a major bank in Lousville to got to work for a banking niche company in Paducah. The company was privately held. The profit sharing portion of his compensation was stock in the company. He did very well without the company ever going public. The founders are multimillionaires.
 
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If the company had no plans to go public and was just doing this as a way to not pay higher salary, that would be shitty, no?

I'm not even sure if companies would do this or not. Im just asking, it appears that if a company offers stock options, instead of pay, there must be some sort of pay off, or something they can entice the workers? Is there any other reason to offer stock options?
 
LineSkiCat14 said:
Got a question on Stock Options.

Company my wife works for is essentially offering about 5,000 options, on a monthly vesting cycle, for roughly 0.30 cents each. It's a tech startup company and they do make a good, niche product. We both think it's worth it to pay the $1750 for the stock and just see if it ever amounts to anything.. God forbid the stock ever opens at $5 or something.

But my question is:

If a company is offering stock, especially as an alternative to salary, they should be planning to go public at some point, right? I feel like this would be a shitty practice otherwise and employees wouldn't go for it. And how likely is it that staff at a company go in on these stock options only to never even have the opportunity to "sell it" as the company never goes public? I'm just curious how this plays out once she owns the stock.

My wife doesn't know much about stocks and investing at all, and I'm not great at it either. She asked if this was worth it to buy, and while I think it's definitely worth the risk, it got me thinking.
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Not sure where you got the $1750. Assuming you don't want to fork over (5000 x .30 =) $1500, does she have a cashless option? This would only be possible it seems if the stock is worth more than .30 cents. The reason I ask is because of dilution. If you buy 5000, who's to say they need more money down the road and offer employees more options? Theoretically, this would reduce the price of your purchased options. Make sure to see a finance lawyer is probably my best advice.
 
LineSkiCat14 said:
If the company had no plans to go public and was just doing this as a way to not pay higher salary, that would be shitty, no?

I'm not even sure if companies would do this or not. Im just asking, it appears that if a company offers stock options, instead of pay, there must be some sort of pay off, or something they can entice the workers? Is there any other reason to offer stock options?
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Maybe these shares are restricted.
 
jameslee32 said:
Not sure where you got the $1750. Assuming you don't want to fork over (5000 x .30 =) $1500, does she have a cashless option? This would only be possible it seems if the stock is worth more than .30 cents. The reason I ask is because of dillution. If you buy 5000, who's to say they need more money down the road and offer employees more options? Theorectically, this would reduce the price of your purchased options. Make sure to see a finance lawyer is probably my best advice.
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I forget where I got $1750.. I actually think it was like 31 cents or some kind of odd dollar amount. But yeah in that range. Still getting more information.

I think were both willing. We figure it's a worth while risk. But I do need to see more info. My last company never did stock options but instead awarded them out.
 
LineSkiCat14 said:
I forget where I got $1750.. I actually think it was like 31 cents or some kind of odd dollar amount. But yeah in that range. Still getting more information.

I think were both willing. We figure it's a worth while risk. But I do need to see more info. My last company never did stock options but instead awarded them out.
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The devil's in the details of course. A lawyer can help with that. On your end, determine if she's willing to stay longer term thereby eliminating any vesting period issues of quitting or getting fired before being fully vested.
 
jameslee32 said:
The devil's in the details of course. A lawyer can help with that. On your end, determine if she's willing to stay longer term thereby eliminating any vesting period issues of quitting or getting fired before being fully vested.
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Vesting seems good. 2 years and monthly. She's already in for nearly a year and has like 45% vested. So in actuality, she was already enrolled in this for a while, but she never paid much attention to it (even though I reminded her often).. and we looked at it for the first time in a while today. I explained again how something like this *could* be very profitable for the employees and I think she finally understood the benefit lol.

Seems like, she has ~45% in her name and she can purchase them at any time. But again, I'm going to look more tomorrow.
 
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