Some random thoughts about Kentucky basketball

[bthaunert]

Tough one yesterday, but something as UK fans we deal with. Just some random thoughts (some I have posted in other threads):

1. The Elite Eight continues to kill us. As well as we do in Sweet Sixteen games (88% winning percentage), we struggle in Elite Eight games (45% winning percentage). Compared to the other blue bloods in the Elite Eight (Duke - 80% winning percentage / UNC - 71% winning percentage / Kansas - 64% winning percentage / UCLA - 82% winning percentage), we struggle for some reason. Not sure why that is. We make a lot more, which is great, but the Regional Finals just kills us. Some can be associated with who we match-up against in the Elite Eight, but not all.

2. If Bam, Monk and Fox go pro, as expected, Cal will have had 19 players get first or second team All-SEC players under him at UK. Only 1 has come back the following year....Terrence Jones, who helped lead us to the National Championship. He did alright for himself by staying. We need our next Terrence Jones.

3. I have no problem when guys leave early for the NBA. It's the time we live in and it's part of the process. But, for some reason, there is this perception by our big time recruits, that if you stay longer than 2 years at UK, you're a bust. That perception has to stop. We are the only program losing such players on a regular basis. Guys like Daniel Orton, Doron Lamb, Archie Goodwin, Andrew Harrison, Dakari Johnson and Aaron Harrison shouldn't be leaving after their 1st or 2nd year, but there is this culture/perception that we cannot get rid of. I'm not sure that will change while Cal is here, but it frustrates the heck out of me.

Again, tough one to swallow, but as always....Go Big Blue!

 

[kats23]

A lot of the recent Elite 8 failure has been bad luck in my opinion.
'03-Bogans injures his ankle in the Sweet 16 game
'05-A rebound in overtime takes us to the FF
'10-4 for 32 3 point shooting downs us to WVU

 

[gossie21]

2. If Bam, Monk and Fox go pro, as expected, Cal will have had 19 players get first or second team All-SEC players under him at UK. Only 1 has come back the following year....Terrence Jones, who helped lead us to the National Championship. He did alright for himself by staying. We need our next Terrence Jones.

Terrence helped UK win a title, but didn't improve his draft stock. Actually it probably dropped a couple of spots, and it cost him a year of earning potential. I wish our players would come back for the love of the university or whatever, but their career is playing basketball, and athleticism is a perishable skill.

3. I have no problem when guys leave early for the NBA. It's the time we live in and it's part of the process. But, for some reason, there is this perception by our big time recruits, that if you stay longer than 2 years at UK, you're a bust. That perception has to stop. We are the only program losing such players on a regular basis. Guys like Daniel Orton, Doron Lamb, Archie Goodwin, Andrew Harrison, Dakari Johnson and Aaron Harrison shouldn't be leaving after their 1st or 2nd year, but there is this culture/perception that we cannot get rid of. I'm not sure that will change while Cal is here, but it frustrates the heck out of me.

Again, tough one to swallow, but as always....Go Big Blue!

The problem with this position is that those players (Orton, Lamb, Goodwin, Harrisons, Johnson) only came to UK because they saw it as their quickest route to the NBA. For better or worse kids want to play for UK because it gets them to the NBA. Some of those kids made a smart choice by leaving when they did, their stock wasn't going to get any higher (Orton, Lamb, Harrisons). I'm surprised you didn't include Teague. Quite frankly Teague and Johnson were the only two that I think made terrible decisions by leaving early.

 

[UKFAN4L]

Catch 22. How do you not want the best Freshman class every year? How do you find the perfect blend of 1 and dones with 4 year guys?

 

[kydmb99]

I blame Tubby for our Elite 8 failure rate

 

[BigBlueCatNation]

Tough one yesterday, but something as UK fans we deal with. Just some random thoughts (some I have posted in other threads):

1. The Elite Eight continues to kill us. As well as we do in Sweet Sixteen games (88% winning percentage), we struggle in Elite Eight games (45% winning percentage). Compared to the other blue bloods in the Elite Eight (Duke - 80% winning percentage / UNC - 71% winning percentage / Kansas - 64% winning percentage / UCLA - 82% winning percentage), we struggle for some reason. Not sure why that is. We make a lot more, which is great, but the Regional Finals just kills us. Some can be associated with who we match-up against in the Elite Eight, but not all.

2. If Bam, Monk and Fox go pro, as expected, Cal will have had 19 players get first or second team All-SEC players under him at UK. Only 1 has come back the following year....Terrence Jones, who helped lead us to the National Championship. He did alright for himself by staying. We need our next Terrence Jones.

3. I have no problem when guys leave early for the NBA. It's the time we live in and it's part of the process. But, for some reason, there is this perception by our big time recruits, that if you stay longer than 2 years at UK, you're a bust. That perception has to stop. We are the only program losing such players on a regular basis. Guys like Daniel Orton, Doron Lamb, Archie Goodwin, Andrew Harrison, Dakari Johnson and Aaron Harrison shouldn't be leaving after their 1st or 2nd year, but there is this culture/perception that we cannot get rid of. I'm not sure that will change while Cal is here, but it frustrates the heck out of me.

Again, tough one to swallow, but as always....Go Big Blue!

All 3 great points. My favorite is number 3. This is going to have to change if we want to win another Championship

 

[bthaunert]

Catch 22. How do you not want the best Freshman class every year? How do you find the perfect blend of 1 and dones with 4 year guys?

I want the best possible recruiting class every year. But, I also want a guy to think it's ok to stay more than 2 years. Briscoe is the perfect example right now. If he plays anywhere else and has the same season, no way he is thinking about leaving after his Soph year, but since he plays here and the expectation is that our top 10 recruits leave after their first or second year, he is probably gone. That aspect of it makes no sense to me.

 

[bthaunert]

I blame Tubby for our Elite 8 failure rate

Elite Eight records:

Cal - 4-2
Tubby - 1-3
Pitino - 3-2
Sutton - 0-1
Hall - 3-3
Rupp - 6-9

Crazy to think only Cal and Pitino have winning records in the Elite Eight

 

[Zakk Wyldcat]

It is the game I hate most.

Off the top of my head: bad luck('03, '86, '70)for various reasons and last-second shots - '92, '68, '17 all going against us. Flip just half of those and it's somewhat better.

 

[bthaunert]

Terrence helped UK win a title, but didn't improve his draft stock. Actually it probably dropped a couple of spots, and it cost him a year of earning potential. I wish our players would come back for the love of the university or whatever, but their career is playing basketball, and athleticism is a perishable skill.


The problem with this position is that those players (Orton, Lamb, Goodwin, Harrisons, Johnson) only came to UK because they saw it as their quickest route to the NBA. For better or worse kids want to play for UK because it gets them to the NBA. Some of those kids made a smart choice by leaving when they did, their stock wasn't going to get any higher (Orton, Lamb, Harrisons). I'm surprised you didn't include Teague. Quite frankly Teague and Johnson were the only two that I think made terrible decisions by leaving early.

As for point 1, he made a decision to sacrifice being drafted to come back and try and be a part of something special. He has a special place in UK history for that. Again, I don't have a problem with guys leaving early, but I also don't questions a guy for coming back when the trend was to leave and help lead us to a title. He gets major props for that.

I understand that a lot of kids come to UK because it's their quickest route to the NBA. What has to change imo is this notion that if you stay more than 2 years, then you're a failure. I love that we help guys live out their dreams and make big money. I hate that guys feel like they have to leave regardless if they are ready or not.

 

[gossie21]

As for point 1, he made a decision to sacrifice being drafted to come back and try and be a part of something special. He has a special place in UK history for that. Again, I don't have a problem with guys leaving early, but I also don't questions a guy for coming back when the trend was to leave and help lead us to a title. He gets major props for that.

I understand that a lot of kids come to UK because it's their quickest route to the NBA. What has to change imo is this notion that if you stay more than 2 years, then you're a failure. I love that we help guys live out their dreams and make big money. I hate that guys feel like they have to leave regardless if they are ready or not.

I totally agree. I've never been in a position to pass up on a $million contract, my guess is everyone on here would take the money if it was their decision. But some of these kids don't have a realistic shot at the big money, like Briscoe this year.

I wish there was a way for a 19/20 year old kid to make better decisions based on realistic information (but by their very nature they are 19/20 year old kids thinking they are about hit the lottery). It would have been great to have Dakari back as a junior last year. And it likely would have led to an increased roll for him and a better shot at making an NBA roster. Unfortunately, he was itching to leave even after his first year so it wasn't likely to happen.

 

[bookerfan66]

It seems like when players stay fans bash them to death.Briscoe seems to be hated by some here and the twins were blamed for everything.

 

[poppycat]

Catch 22. How do you not want the best Freshman class every year?.................................................................................................................................... How do you find the perfect blend of 1 and dones with 4 year guys?

Recruit with that in mind......maybe
Good year for that. If we strike out on Mo Bam and Knox, go for
the best of the rest......likely 3-4 yr players'

 

[Roe07]

It is the game I hate most.

Off the top of my head: bad luck('03, '86, '70)for various reasons and last-second shots - '92, '68, '17 all going against us. Flip just half of those and it's somewhat better.

I agree! In my opinion losing in the Elite 8 is the most crushing because you're right on the cusp of the Final 4. I truly believe that had we won last night we would've won the whole thing.

 

[anon_013cn8yrfncx2]

Stop recruiting guys whose families are in dire straits financially unless they are can't miss OAD. It's not Cal's job to get kids to the NBA just because they need money.

Or stop recruiting as many 5-stars as you can. Recruit 1 center, 1 forward and 1 guard every year who are the best you can get. Get top 30-50 guys to fill out the class. Repeat every year.

 

[Hoskins91]

As for point 1, he made a decision to sacrifice being drafted to come back and try and be a part of something special. He has a special place in UK history for that. Again, I don't have a problem with guys leaving early, but I also don't questions a guy for coming back when the trend was to leave and help lead us to a title. He gets major props for that.

I understand that a lot of kids come to UK because it's their quickest route to the NBA. What has to change imo is this notion that if you stay more than 2 years, then you're a failure. I love that we help guys live out their dreams and make big money. I hate that guys feel like they have to leave regardless if they are ready or not.

I don't think it's that they view themselves as a failure. Most of the guys we are getting, their priority is to play in the NBA. Briscoe for example, doesn't really have anything to gain on that front by coming back. A lot of the guys you listed are just looking at it from the angle of how it helps them professionally. Most of those guys didn't believe staying longer helped further their professional careers, and to be honest they were probably right.

 

[MegaBlue05]

It seems like when players stay fans bash them to death.Briscoe seems to be hated by some here and the twins were blamed for everything.

And the worst part is the ones who bash the kids who stay are the ones who bitch about never having veteran players.

 

[MegaBlue05]

Stop recruiting guys whose families are in dire straits financially unless they are can't miss OAD. It's not Cal's job to get kids to the NBA just because they need money.

Or stop recruiting as many 5-stars as you can. Recruit 1 center, 1 forward and 1 guard every year who are the best you can get. Get top 30-50 guys to fill out the class. Repeat every year.

That last part sounds good, but as we've seen with guys like Poole and Matthews, are these top 30-50 guys willing to ride the bench for two years with hopes of maybe being able to contribute as juniors IF they don't get recruited over every year?

Love it or hate it, Cal's OAD reputation has the program in a Catch 22.

 

[Eddie Gran can coach]

It takes a perfect storm of 3 OAD elite freshman and 3 elite (not just good) sophomores or above to win a national championship. Ideally, you could recruit (3) 5 stars and (3) very, very high-4 stars every year, and have a strong soph class (2nd round NBA calibre) annually, but that's unrealistic to pull off cause there's gonna be overachievers and underachievers in every class.

 

[Deli owl]

It seems like when players stay fans bash them to death.Briscoe seems to be hated by some here and the twins were blamed for everything.

That's because he performs poorly for a guard.

 

[UKGrad93]

I agree! In my opinion losing in the Elite 8 is the most crushing because you're right on the cusp of the Final 4. I truly believe that had we won last night we would've won the whole thing.

Losing before the elite 8, you probably didn't have a realistic shot at a title. Make the elite 8, you are one win away from a final 4, and just a little luck, a title.

The other thing that hurts is a lot of ours seem to be really close games.

 

[kybassfan]

That last part sounds good, but as we've seen with guys like Poole and Matthews, are these top 30-50 guys willing to ride the bench for two years with hopes of maybe being able to contribute as juniors IF they don't get recruited over every year?

Love it or hate it, Cal's OAD reputation has the program in a Catch 22.

And just how viable do you think that plan is?

You are proposing that Cal recruit a number of 30 - 50 guys and NOT recruit over them. First, what recruit would believe that wouldn't happen. Second, fans would go ballistic if Cal passed on top rated recruits just to avoid recruiting over those guys in the 30 - 50 range. Third, fans would roast him for tourney flame outs while those guys "grew up" and over those recruits he could have gotten. I could go on, but clearly this proposal is nonsense.

Bottom line is you do what Kentucky has been doing for decades. You take the best fits you can get. You take'em every year. We don't have coach that pursues ONLY OADs. We have a coach that gets the pick of the litter(s) every single year. The great majority of those have choices after the first year that they choose to exercise.

This leaves the program with three choices. 1. Far Calipari because he recruits too good. (LOL!!!!, I just had to bring it up). 2. Change the rules to take away the option to leave after the first year. (Fat Chance.) 3. Continue on the path we're on which has yielded results which have no parallel in our history. (This is really the only viable alternative.)

Of course, the people making the decisions are far wiser than the guys whining about OAD and screeching about Calipari and his system. Option 3 will persist until such time as Cal leaves or retires. Guess some of you guys are going to have to suffer through our success.

Look at it this way, while in misery, one day Cal will leave. Then you'll have a lot more to cry about as we likely return to a championship every 20 years and a final 4 or 8 every 4 - 6 years or so.

 

[TheDude73]

The only real reason Terrence Jones returned was because of the looming NBA lockout. Had that not been in place, I'm convinced he'd have gone, too.

It's a fine line Cal has to walk with recruiting - do you sacrifice one or two highly-ranked 5-star players still on the fence by going hard after a few 4-stars so you get guaranteed returning players for 3-4 years? You know most 4-star players wouldn't wait a day to say yes if Kentucky offered a scholarship, which locks up space for the 5-stars he's after - most of which all wait until the very last day to announce. If Cal has a few 4-stars there already, it could jeopardize getting the prized recruits.

I certainly don't envy his job, and it's quite amazing that he does what he does each year with essentially a complete roster turnover.

 

[MegaBlue05]

And just how viable do you think that plan is?

You are proposing that Cal recruit a number of 30 - 50 guys and NOT recruit over them. First, what recruit would believe that wouldn't happen. Second, fans would go ballistic if Cal passed on top rated recruits just to avoid recruiting over those guys in the 30 - 50 range. Third, fans would roast him for tourney flame outs while those guys "grew up" and over those recruits he could have gotten. I could go on, but clearly this proposal is nonsense.

Bottom line is you do what Kentucky has been doing for decades. You take the best fits you can get. You take'em every year. We don't have coach that pursues ONLY OADs. We have a coach that gets the pick of the litter(s) every single year. The great majority of those have choices after the first year that they choose to exercise.

This leaves the program with three choices. 1. Far Calipari because he recruits too good. (LOL!!!!, I just had to bring it up). 2. Change the rules to take away the option to leave after the first year. (Fat Chance.) 3. Continue on the path we're on which has yielded results which have no parallel in our history. (This is really the only viable alternative.)

Of course, the people making the decisions are far wiser than the guys whining about OAD and screeching about Calipari and his system. Option 3 will persist until such time as Cal leaves or retires. Guess some of you guys are going to have to suffer through our success.

Look at it this way, while in misery, one day Cal will leave. Then you'll have a lot more to cry about as we likely return to a championship every 20 years and a final 4 or 8 every 4 - 6 years or so.

I was pointing out the guy I quoted's plan wasn't viable.

I'm going to assume your post was directed at that poster rather than myself.

Bottom line is if we want experience Cal's gonna have to recruit guys in the 100-150 range and hope they're good with being backups for four years, maybe a starter by their junior year IF they develop.

I'm fine with OAD. It's gotten us better results than "coach up 3-4 stars and hope they're not too bad as upperclassmen" that OTS and BCG gave us.

 

[bthaunert]

I don't think it's that they view themselves as a failure. Most of the guys we are getting, their priority is to play in the NBA. Briscoe for example, doesn't really have anything to gain on that front by coming back. A lot of the guys you listed are just looking at it from the angle of how it helps them professionally. Most of those guys didn't believe staying longer helped further their professional careers, and to be honest they were probably right.

This is where I disagree. Briscoe has zero future in the NBA as of right now. But for some reason, he will look at entering the draft as his best option, instead of returning. How does leaving early, as opposed to staying help their professional careers? That is what I have never understood. The idea that since I will gain nothing from coming back, although I am clearly not good enough for the NBA, I will still leave 2 years early. As I said earlier, I am all for guys leaving early when they can get drafted. I would support Briscoe's decision and hope he succeeds if he chooses to enter the draft, but I 100% believe that if had this year at some other University, he'd be staying for a 4th year. We have created a culture of leaving early regardless because that is what you do here. That is the issue I have.

 

[UKGrad93]

This is where I disagree. Briscoe has zero future in the NBA as of right now. But for some reason, he will look at entering the draft as his best option, instead of returning. How does leaving early, as opposed to staying help their professional careers? That is what I have never understood. The idea that since I will gain nothing from coming back, although I am clearly not good enough for the NBA, I will still leave 2 years early. As I said earlier, I am all for guys leaving early when they can get drafted. I would support Briscoe's decision and hope he succeeds if he chooses to enter the draft, but I 100% believe that if had this year at some other University, he'd be staying for a 4th year. We have created a culture of leaving early regardless because that is what you do here. That is the issue I have.

I'll bite on this. You come here for one year, because the NBA requires you to go somewhere for one year. If you are good you, you get drafted and have millions (we all understand this).

After one year, you find out you have some things to work on, so maybe you spend two years here. Your chance of getting drafted probably moves up a little or maybe none at all. You have peaked and the NBA knows this. Or as a 19 yo kid, you assume that this is what they think.
So now, 2 years in college, life isn't going how you planned, but there's the D-league or Euro ball. Either of those pay about as well (in most cases better) than a 4 yr degree to start out. So it becomes a question of long term outlooks by a 19-20 yo. They just want to play basketball and they can do it and get paid just as well as the guy that has a 4 yr degree selling Xerox machines. In fact, they can get a head start on making that money, while the 4 yr college guy has to go to class and wait.

Off the top of my head, the Harrison twins and Orton were 2 yr guys. I don't think they changed their draft positions much by coming back. They do have 1 less year to earn money though.

It's all a lesson in delayed gratification.

Like you say, we are perceived as One & Done U. That is why they come here. I don't think we are attracting kids that say I want a degree, and maybe if I work hard, this basketball thing will work out.

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

Tough one yesterday, but something as UK fans we deal with. Just some random thoughts (some I have posted in other threads):

1. The Elite Eight continues to kill us. As well as we do in Sweet Sixteen games (88% winning percentage), we struggle in Elite Eight games (45% winning percentage). Compared to the other blue bloods in the Elite Eight (Duke - 80% winning percentage / UNC - 71% winning percentage / Kansas - 64% winning percentage / UCLA - 82% winning percentage), we struggle for some reason. Not sure why that is. We make a lot more, which is great, but the Regional Finals just kills us. Some can be associated with who we match-up against in the Elite Eight, but not all.

2. If Bam, Monk and Fox go pro, as expected, Cal will have had 19 players get first or second team All-SEC players under him at UK. Only 1 has come back the following year....Terrence Jones, who helped lead us to the National Championship. He did alright for himself by staying. We need our next Terrence Jones.

3. I have no problem when guys leave early for the NBA. It's the time we live in and it's part of the process. But, for some reason, there is this perception by our big time recruits, that if you stay longer than 2 years at UK, you're a bust. That perception has to stop. We are the only program losing such players on a regular basis. Guys like Daniel Orton, Doron Lamb, Archie Goodwin, Andrew Harrison, Dakari Johnson and Aaron Harrison shouldn't be leaving after their 1st or 2nd year, but there is this culture/perception that we cannot get rid of. I'm not sure that will change while Cal is here, but it frustrates the heck out of me.

Again, tough one to swallow, but as always....Go Big Blue!

Good post. Hard to argue with any of it.

 

[kybassfan]

I was pointing out the guy I quoted's plan wasn't viable.

I'm going to assume your post was directed at that poster rather than myself.

Bottom line is if we want experience Cal's gonna have to recruit guys in the 100-150 range and hope they're good with being backups for four years, maybe a starter by their junior year IF they develop.

I'm fine with OAD. It's gotten us better results than "coach up 3-4 stars and hope they're not too bad as upperclassmen" that OTS and BCG gave us.

Yes, my bad on the quote. We agree.