Great post. You said it better than I did.
Going a step further (and out on a limb here) - it's possible him going elsewhere is already baked in and Cal knows that. Cal had almost no choice but to offer, there was really no way around it so he did his part. As has been suggested, if Reed was from any other state it's not likely Cal would have offered. And it just seems possible that if the family is thinking short-term, long-term and best fit, which you know they are, the sensible choice would be somewhere else like UVA. Having said that it's very possible he still picks UK anyway, for the more obvious reasons. Either way it may have been a much more difficult choice than many would like to think.