To point out how badly people are jumping the gun Cohen pleading guilty doesn't mean the campaign violation is criminal. This hasn't been to trial. It could easily end up being a civil matter.
For it to be criminal they would first have to prove that it's a violation by proving the payment was solely made for campaign activity and that there wasn't a secondary reason. That's what the law requires. Any evidence of a legit secondary reason for the payment negates the violation. For example something like wanting to keep a mistress silent so your wife doesn't find out.
Then on top of that they would have to prove that it was knowingly and willfully violated. Even if they prove the first without proving the second of knowing and willful then it's not criminal and is a simple civil matter. If it's a civil matter below is what you should expect..
https://www.publicintegrity.org/201...egal-contribution-fec-ruling-could-take-years
Based on what President Donald Trump hears on television about the Federal Election Commission, the nation’s cable news consumer-in-chief must be panicked.
TV talkers squawk about how the independent government agency is poised to pounce. Their contention: A $130,000 hush-money payment in October 2016 from Trump lawyer Michael Cohen to porn actress and alleged Trump paramour Stormy Daniels could constitute an illegal in-kind campaign contribution to Trump’s presidential campaign — one that exceeds federal limits ($2,700 per election) and wasn’t properly disclosed.
Trump, however, has little cause to fear the FEC anytime soon, even if the agency, created by Congress in response to Watergate, is empowered to enforce federal campaign finance laws.
Here’s why:
Complicated FEC investigations often take years
Don’t be shocked if the FEC doesn’t rule on the complaint until after the 2020 presidential election, when it’s conceivable Trump is no longer president.
At FEC, thorny issues often equal ideological gridlock
There’s little expectation among more than a dozen campaign finance lawyers and former commissioners interviewed this week by the
Center for Public Integrity that the FEC will ever agree that Trump, or his campaign, violated a campaign finance law in connection with the Daniels payment.
“It’s hard to see why any candidate who is familiar with the last decade’s worth of FEC inaction would be concerned about FEC enforcement,” said Adav Noti, chief of staff for nonpartisan campaign reform group Campaign Legal Center who until last year served as the FEC’s associate general counsel for policy.
Trump all but immune to FEC penalties
The FEC is a law enforcement agency, but a
civil law enforcement agency. It doles out penalties in the form of fines and, secondarily, public shame.
Trump is a billionaire who could pay any FEC fine — almost all fall within the four- to five-figure range — with what for him amounts to pocket change.
And a notable
apology from October 2016 notwithstanding, Trump doesn’t shame easily.
Say the FEC did fine Trump.
There’s the very real possibility he’d simply ignore it.
The
Center for Public Integrity in October found more than 160 examples of political candidates and committees never paying fines the FEC levied on them.
In almost all cases, the federal government did little to collect the fines or otherwise pursue the matters.