Model Update this Morning, Cats Slip

[Aike]

Not shocking after a great win, so-so performance. Cats slide to 10th overall.

To be fair, it wasn’t so much about us slipping as it was about some other teams (Auburn, Tennessee, UCONN) jumping us.

Here’s every team currently modeling as a 2 or better. This would roughly equate to expected to make the Sweet 16. Traditionally, the champion comes from this group.

1. Zona
2. Houston (Stifling defense)
3. Purdue
4. Iowa St ( Coming back to earth)
5. Bama (SOS driving this)
6. BYU
7. Auburn
8. Tennessee
9. UCONN
10. Kentucky
11. Kansas

Checking in at 1.985…

12. Michigan St.

Right on the fringes…

13. Duke
14. Marquette
15. TCU

Another tier down…

16. FAU
17. Virginia
18. Colorado
19. UNC
20. Iowa

 

[runt#69]

The most interesting thing about watching how your models progress over time is not how the blue bloods do, but how the "outlier" teams ( outlier to me, meaning Iowa states, Alabamas, etc.) do over time, and where and how they fare as the season progresses.

I like reading your updates more than following Ken Pom, .NET or the polls, personally.

After all these years, Rafters' is still THE PLACE to come for all the college hoop discussion, wild and crazy as it is here, for me.

Thank you again for the update.

 

[Aike]

The most interesting thing about watching how your models progress over time is not how the blue bloods do, but how the "outlier" teams ( outlier to me, meaning Iowa states, Alabamas, etc.) do over time, and where and how they fare as the season progresses.

I like reading your updates more than following Ken Pom, .NET or the polls, personally.

After all these years, Rafters' is still THE PLACE to come for all the college hoop discussion, wild and crazy as it is here, for me.

Thank you again for the update.

Appreciate it!

 

[Mike-D]

Tennessee got way more credit for beating a team that basically hasn't played anyone at home, than we did in a sold out road environment against a tested team.

Somehow Ole Miss is ranked in the top 15 of the RPI, but were 11 point underdogs at UT. These numbers don't add up. And then factor in that we were 3.5 dogs, and still won.

 

[CUJO_1970]

Not shocking after a great win, so-so performance. Cats slide to 10th overall.

With all due respect - C'mon man, this stuff gets so damn tedious. Big win on the road at Florida = "Cats slide." Can't wait to see how far we fall after beating Missouri.

Keep us posted!

 

[Aike]

With all due respect - C'mon man, this stuff gets so damn tedious. Big win on the road at Florida = "Cats slide." Can't wait to see how far we fall after beating Missouri.

Keep us posted!

Then I suggest you exit

 

[Aike]

Tennessee got way more credit for beating a team that basically hasn't played anyone at home, than we did in a sold out road environment against a tested team.

Somehow Ole Miss is ranked in the top 15 of the RPI, but were 11 point underdogs at UT. These numbers don't add up. And then factor in that we were 3.5 dogs, and still won.

Tennessee played a lot better than we did yesterday. And we shouldn’t have been an underdog at all, by my math.

Edit to add: they won their rebounding battle 47-24, and had a 25/10 assist/turnover day.

 

[Mike-D]

Tennessee played a lot better than we did yesterday. And we shouldn’t have been an underdog at all, by my math.

Edit to add: they won their rebounding battle 47-24, and had a 25/10 assist/turnover day.

I suspect we would have played a lot better at home. We are just bad in true road games with young teams. Also, that was Ole Miss' first Quad 1 game yesterday.

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

How in the world is FAU hanging on???

 

[Aike]

I suspect we would have played a lot better at home. We are just bad in true road games with young teams. Also, that was Ole Miss' first Quad 1 game yesterday.

We’ll get plenty more chances. We played great at home vs. Miami, then abysmally vs. UNCW.

If we play up to our potential, our score will rise. Truth will out.

 

[Aike]

How in the world is FAU hanging on???

Good start. Win over Arizona carrying weight.

I would say we should continue to consider them a dangerous team. They just aren’t a great team.

 

[Dncmaxwell]

The most interesting thing about watching how your models progress over time is not how the blue bloods do, but how the "outlier" teams ( outlier to me, meaning Iowa states, Alabamas, etc.) do over time, and where and how they fare as the season progresses.

I like reading your updates more than following Ken Pom, .NET or the polls, personally.

After all these years, Rafters' is still THE PLACE to come for all the college hoop discussion, wild and crazy as it is here, for me.

Thank you again for the update.

Agree. Posts like this are the best of Cats Illustrated!!!

 

[storm1507]

Wow, we don't play any of Tenn, Bama, or Auburn until Feb. How would your model handle us if we play bad against Tenn for example but win?

 

[Aike]

Wow, we don't play any of Tenn, Bama, or Auburn until Feb. How would your model handle us if we play bad against Tenn for example but win?

It really depends more on how we play. Both teams would get a SOS bump, so that would raise our ratings. Then if both teams played poorly, they could both drop overall, potentially. There are a myriad of potential outcomes.

Edit to add: what you really want to see is that when you play better teams like Tennessee, you continue to perform the same way (shoot the ball well, high assists, low turnovers, etc.).

Conversely, you would like to see Tennessee perform worse than usual.

This probably seems like a very elementary explanation. And it is. But it kind of is that simple.

The teams who are able to impose their will and continue to play their game as level of competition increases, those are the teams who will contend in March.

 

[Oldbluefart]

Aike; I always read your updated figures. I appreciate you taking the time to do this.
No matter what one tries to do, there is always someone finding fault in it.

My question for you is this; I do not fell UK played that bad of a game against Florida. The only thing negative was we were not hitting our shots. Some of that was due to the defense but more so of just missing them.
But UK found a way to win.
How do you account for a situation like this?
Then there is BYU. Are they that good or they being pumped up by playing lesser teams?
They did lose yesterday.

UK also played without one of its players in their first real road game.
Do you account for this in any way?

In the end, UK won a road game with their B game against a good team on the road who played their A game.
Thanks again for taking the time to do this.

 

[Aike]

Aike; I always read your updated figures. I appreciate you taking the time to do this.
No matter what one tries to do, there is always someone finding fault in it.

My question for you is this; I do not fell UK played that bad of a game against Florida. The only thing negative was we were not hitting our shots. Some of that was due to the defense but more so of just missing them.
But UK found a way to win.
How do you account for a situation like this?
Then there is BYU. Are they that good or they being pumped up by playing lesser teams?
They did lose yesterday.

UK also played without one of its players in their first real road game.
Do you account for this in any way?

In the end, UK won a road game with their B game against a good team on the road who played their A game.
Thanks again for taking the time to do this.

You are going to get dinged a bit for missing shots, but there will be 30+ games and over 2000 possessions worth of data by the time the tournament starts. It all evens out and you kind of are what you are by that point.

BYU is similar to Iowa St in that they’ve played well vs. weak teams. They will both be well tested over the next 8 weeks.

I don’t account for players missing. Most teams have players in and out of lineups all year, and have to learn to adjust. That’s an important part of being a contender. That said, I would pay attention to the health of the team in March if I were trying to pick the champion.

 

[bigbluelou]

The most interesting thing about watching how your models progress over time is not how the blue bloods do, but how the "outlier" teams ( outlier to me, meaning Iowa states, Alabamas, etc.) do over time, and where and how they fare as the season progresses.

I like reading your updates more than following Ken Pom, .NET or the polls, personally.

After all these years, Rafters' is still THE PLACE to come for all the college hoop discussion, wild and crazy as it is here, for me.

Thank you again for the update.

Thumbs up for saying "fare" instead of "fair" lol.

 

[Ripcord65]

Thumbs up for saying "fare" instead of "fair" lol.

Great post, Lou. Nothing like some positive reinforcement on this board ... particularly in the realm about which you posted ! ! !
Go 'Cats ! ! !

 

[bluefaithful]

Stay around 10th until mid February,get Adou healthy, Edwards developed and improve our Bigs then start to pounce.

Go Cats

 

[IowaMuse]

BYU seems wildly overrated. I understand Pope is a UK guy but they looked and played horribly last night at home against Cincy. That win over SDSU seems to be carrying them. No real significant wins outside that. UK would demolish this BYU team.

 

[Aike]

BYU seems wildly overrated. I understand Pope is a UK guy but they looked and played horribly last night at home against Cincy. That win over SDSU seems to be carrying them. No real significant wins outside that. UK would demolish this BYU team.

Strong metrics overall, but I’d expect them to keep sliding as their schedule toughens up.

 

[TheDude73]

Then I suggest you exit

You need to be more open to criticism, man.

 

[Aike]

You need to be more open to criticism, man.

Mind your own business. If someone finds this “tedious,” then I’d suggest this isn’t for them. Feel free to follow them out the door.

 

[H00SIER-Cat]

UNC Wilmington, UNC Wilmington, UNC Wilmington, just doesn't roll off the tongue like Evansville, Evansville, Evansville.

 

[TheDude73]

You are going to get dinged a bit for missing shots, but there will be 30+ games and over 2000 possessions worth of data by the time the tournament starts. It all evens out and you kind of are what you are by that point.

BYU is similar to Iowa St in that they’ve played well vs. weak teams. They will both be well tested over the next 8 weeks.

I don’t account for players missing. Most teams have players in and out of lineups all year, and have to learn to adjust. That’s an important part of being a contender. That said, I would pay attention to the health of the team in March if I were trying to pick the champion.

Dinged for missing shots, but rewarded for offensive rebounds? Teams that have a lot of offensive rebounds do so because they miss a lot of shots. Which carries more weight, or do they negate each other if a team like say UF misses a ton of shots but has 45 offensive rebounds??

 

[TheDude73]

Mind your own business. If someone finds this “tedious,” then I’d suggest this isn’t for them. Feel free to follow them out the door.

Ok dude. Have it your way.

You used to be open to folks questioning your model. Now you're very defensive with the immature "if you don't like it, leave" response.

(and I'm not leaving any time soon)...

 

[Aike]

Dinged for missing shots, but rewarded for offensive rebounds? Teams that have a lot of offensive rebounds do so because they miss a lot of shots. Which carries more weight, or do they negate each other if a team like say UF misses a ton of shots but has 45 offensive rebounds??

I’m guessing, now hear me out, that you would do better by missing a shot and grabbing the rebound than missing the shot and not grabbing the rebound.

 

[Aike]

Ok dude. Have it your way.

You used to be open to folks questioning your model. Now you're very defensive with the immature "if you don't like it, leave" response.

(and I'm not leaving any time soon)...

Been sick of the nonsense for years. Questioning something and calling it tedious…hardly the same thing.

Leave, stay. Whatever.

 

[TheDude73]

I’m guessing, now hear me out, that you would do better by missing a shot and grabbing the rebound than missing the shot and not grabbing the rebound.

So off boards negates poor shooting, even if they don't get the putback.

 

[TheDude73]

Been sick of the nonsense for years. Questioning something and calling it tedious…hardly the same thing.

Leave, stay. Whatever.

I think the person that said that should have added to their context - they more than likely think that these "models" are getting out of hand, regularly don't make sense, and are becoming overused to rate teams in the field. Sometimes a good mix of an anecdotal eye test and a little modeling/analytics is the best way to go.

 

[Aike]

So off boards negates poor shooting, even if they don't get the putback.

I don’t specifically measure offensive rebounds. The better you rebound compared to your opponent, the better you’ll rate. Better you shoot, better you’ll rate.

If you want to boil it down to one possession, missing a shot and getting the rebound is better than missing the shot and not getting the rebound.

Extending the possession has value - increased opportunities for you vs. decreased opportunities for your opponents will typically be a positive across multiple possessions.

Even though you got no points on that particular trip, it’s an example of playing “the right way,” which tends to have positive benefits spread across multiple possessions.

A qualitative assessment might be that consistently beating your opponent for rebounds has a tendency to wear at them and make them more vulnerable in other ways.

Maybe they can’t send someone out on a fast break the way they would like to, for instance.

Best result for a miss would be rebound and a putback.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Good job, Aike.

Keep up the good work.

 

[CUJO_1970]

Then I suggest you exit

I suggest you come up with a better model.

 

[Aike]

I suggest you come up with a better model.

Quite an original thought. You must be some kind of genius.

 

[kyboy1998]

I always get a kick of “my model”. Seriously though I appreciate it and trust your math better that the Net and was once the RPI.

You do a good job.

 

[Fox2monk]

Good start. Win over Arizona carrying weight.

I would say we should continue to consider them a dangerous team. They just aren’t a great team.

I wouldn’t want to play them as a low seed.

 

[Aike]

I wouldn’t want to play them as a low seed.

Definitely not. They won’t be scared of anyone and Final Four experience isn’t something you can just teach.

 

[Untouchables22]

In my humble opinion there is currently a clear Tier 1 of: Purdue, Arizona, Houston, and UCONN. (I know Houston’s schedule has been weak and UCONN’s best player is out and may remain out for the next 3 weeks). UK is still very much a work in progress in Tier 2 with: KU, UNC, Marquette and Tennessee. We have the most talented roster and highest ceiling in the country. But the perimeter defense and 3 point shooting contesting MUST improve or we will remain susceptible to being upset by any team who gets hot from 3 or has elite penetrating guards.

 

[KyWildcatDon]

Aike, I always appreciate your posts with your model. From an uneducated point of view don't always understand them completely, but that's on me. My question is do you compare how you fare against the other rankings each year heading into the tournament? Has your model been more predictive and accurate of how teams actually fared?

 

[THE_HOOK]

Ok dude. Have it your way.

You used to be open to folks questioning your model. Now you're very defensive with the immature "if you don't like it, leave" response.

(and I'm not leaving any time soon)...

Clicked on this by accident. Not sure why anyone cares about a MODEL. Play the damn games and try to win them all. AP and Coaches polls are the only thing that matters. I won't be back. But keep on keeping on.