Model Update 3/19/24

[Aike]

I’m going to list out the full season model, as well as the model for the last 5 weeks of the season.

Before anyone tells me, yes, I’m aware that teams might be high in the model but not make the tournament.

I’ll try to run the full bracket by tomorrow to get overall odds, but this is a start for anyone interested. Feel free to ask questions about specific teams.

Full Season Model

1. UCONN 3.35
2. Auburn 2.89
3. Houston 2.860
4. Arizona 2.859
5. Tennessee 2.5513
6. Iowa St 2.5505
7. Purdue 2.38
8. Marquette 2.06
9. Alabama 2.05
10. Kansas 2.04
11. Kentucky 1.88
12. BYU 1.78
13. Michigan St 1.74
14. Duke 1.70
15. UNC 1.68
16. Gonzaga 1.60
17. Texas 1.55
18. TCU 1.50
19. Colorado 1.49
20. Creighton 1.48
21. St Mary’s 1.44
22. Mississippi St 1.43
23. Baylor 1.41
24. Virginia 1.37
25. St John’s 1.34
26. FAU 1.30
27. Wisconsin 1.29
28. Iowa 1.28
29. Texas Tech 1.21
30. Florida 1.20
31. New Mexico 1.16
32. Northwestern 1.11
128. Oakland 0.1745

Last 5 Weeks Model

1. UCONN 4.67
2. Auburn 3.72
3. St. John’s 3.22 (no wonder RP is so mad)
4. Houston 3.20
5. USC 3.09 (crazy)
6. Tennessee 2.63
7. Iowa St 2.56
8. Gonzaga 2.53
9. Ohio St. 2.52
10. Arizona 2.49
11. Kentucky 2.29
12. Creighton 2.27
13. Purdue 2.20
14. Duke 2.17
15. St Mary’s 2.09
16. UNC 1.87
17. Texas 1.83
18. Marquette 1.78
19. Baylor 1.65
20. Nebraska 1.58
21. Wisconsin 1.56
22. Mississippi St 1.52
23. Villanova 1.51
24. Pittsburgh 1.44
25. Texas Tech 1.40
26. TCU 1.392
27. Florida 1.390
28. Colorado 1.333
29. S Dakota St 1.327 (+103 comp to full year)
30. Cincinnati 1.3012
31. Michigan St 1.3011
32. San Diego St 1.297
116. Oakland 0.28

 

[mbc82584]

Thanks for the update, I always enjoy these.

Am I right it looks like elite 8 for cats based on bracket?

 

[The Snoke]

I’m going to list out the full season model, as well as the model for the last 5 weeks of the season.

Before anyone tells me, yes, I’m aware that teams might be high in the model but not make the tournament.

I’ll try to run the full bracket by tomorrow to get overall odds, but this is a start for anyone interested. Feel free to ask questions about specific teams.

Full Season Model

1. UCONN 3.35
2. Auburn 2.89
3. Houston 2.860
4. Arizona 2.859
5. Tennessee 2.5513
6. Iowa St 2.5505
7. Purdue 2.38
8. Marquette 2.06
9. Alabama 2.05
10. Kansas 2.04
11. Kentucky 1.88
12. BYU 1.78
13. Michigan St 1.74
14. Duke 1.70
15. UNC 1.68
16. Gonzaga 1.60
17. Texas 1.55
18. TCU 1.50
19. Colorado 1.49
20. Creighton 1.48
21. St Mary’s 1.44
22. Mississippi St 1.43
23. Baylor 1.41
24. Virginia 1.37
25. St John’s 1.34
26. FAU 1.30
27. Wisconsin 1.29
28. Iowa 1.28
29. Texas Tech 1.21
30. Florida 1.20
31. New Mexico 1.16
32. Northwestern 1.11
128. Oakland 0.1745

Last 5 Weeks Model

1. UCONN 4.67
2. Auburn 3.72
3. St. John’s 3.22 (no wonder RP is so mad)
4. Houston 3.20
5. USC 3.09 (crazy)
6. Tennessee 2.63
7. Iowa St 2.56
8. Gonzaga 2.53
9. Ohio St. 2.52
10. Arizona 2.49
11. Kentucky 2.29
12. Creighton 2.27
13. Purdue 2.20
14. Duke 2.17
15. St Mary’s 2.09
16. UNC 1.87
17. Texas 1.83
18. Marquette 1.78
19. Baylor 1.65
20. Nebraska 1.58
21. Wisconsin 1.56
22. Mississippi St 1.52
23. Villanova 1.51
24. Pittsburgh 1.44
25. Texas Tech 1.40
26. TCU 1.392
27. Florida 1.390
28. Colorado 1.333
29. S Dakota St 1.327 (+103 comp to full year)
30. Cincinnati 1.3012
31. Michigan St 1.3011
32. San Diego St 1.297
116. Oakland 0.28

Well done Aike and thank you.

 

[The Snoke]

Thanks for the update, I always enjoy these.

Am I right it looks like elite 8 for cats based on bracket?

I hope you’re right, maybe better but I’m in the dumps right now. 1st round exit hurt… past few years doesn’t make me feel better.

 

[UKortho]

I’ll probably regret this, but I think UK gets to the elite 8. The reason? I have zero faith in them and I don’t get too mad when they lose- due to the moronic moves by our coach. I have just lost interest. A final eight would get me going enough to get pissed if they lose.

 

[Aike]

Thanks for the update, I always enjoy these.

Am I right it looks like elite 8 for cats based on bracket?

Should be pretty close between us and Marquette. They were slightly better through the season, while we were a bit better over the last month.

 

[The Snoke]

I’ll probably regret this, but I think UK gets to the elite 8. The reason? I have zero faith in them and I don’t get too mad when they lose- due to the moronic moves by our coach. I have just lost interest. A final eight would get me going enough to get pissed if they lose.

I am there now. I really hope they get there because I want to celebrate it. Faith is in the team they represent, after that it becomes comes hope. There is a difference.

 

[WeWant9]

I’ve been going back and forth on this Miss St vs Mich St game and a possible Miss St vs Unc game. Am I crazy here? Could Miss St make a surprise run to the S16? I know if I pick it, they get drummed by Izzo lol

 

[catlogic15]

Thanks. No matter how you look at it, UConn looks dominate.

 

[Aike]

Thanks. No matter how you look at it, UConn looks dominate.

Absolutely

 

[Aike]

I’ve been going back and forth on this Miss St vs Mich St game and a possible Miss St vs Unc game. Am I crazy here? Could Miss St make a surprise run to the S16? I know if I pick it, they get drummed by Izzo lol

Wouldn’t shock me. I think in some ways UNC is “better” than the model shows. But there are things about the way they play that leave them susceptible to upset.

And Michigan St. honestly isn’t that great, but Izzo still knows how to advance in the early rounds.

 

[Fox2monk]

I’m going to list out the full season model, as well as the model for the last 5 weeks of the season.

Before anyone tells me, yes, I’m aware that teams might be high in the model but not make the tournament.

I’ll try to run the full bracket by tomorrow to get overall odds, but this is a start for anyone interested. Feel free to ask questions about specific teams.

Full Season Model

1. UCONN 3.35
2. Auburn 2.89
3. Houston 2.860
4. Arizona 2.859
5. Tennessee 2.5513
6. Iowa St 2.5505
7. Purdue 2.38
8. Marquette 2.06
9. Alabama 2.05
10. Kansas 2.04
11. Kentucky 1.88
12. BYU 1.78
13. Michigan St 1.74
14. Duke 1.70
15. UNC 1.68
16. Gonzaga 1.60
17. Texas 1.55
18. TCU 1.50
19. Colorado 1.49
20. Creighton 1.48
21. St Mary’s 1.44
22. Mississippi St 1.43
23. Baylor 1.41
24. Virginia 1.37
25. St John’s 1.34
26. FAU 1.30
27. Wisconsin 1.29
28. Iowa 1.28
29. Texas Tech 1.21
30. Florida 1.20
31. New Mexico 1.16
32. Northwestern 1.11
128. Oakland 0.1745

Last 5 Weeks Model

1. UCONN 4.67
2. Auburn 3.72
3. St. John’s 3.22 (no wonder RP is so mad)
4. Houston 3.20
5. USC 3.09 (crazy)
6. Tennessee 2.63
7. Iowa St 2.56
8. Gonzaga 2.53
9. Ohio St. 2.52
10. Arizona 2.49
11. Kentucky 2.29
12. Creighton 2.27
13. Purdue 2.20
14. Duke 2.17
15. St Mary’s 2.09
16. UNC 1.87
17. Texas 1.83
18. Marquette 1.78
19. Baylor 1.65
20. Nebraska 1.58
21. Wisconsin 1.56
22. Mississippi St 1.52
23. Villanova 1.51
24. Pittsburgh 1.44
25. Texas Tech 1.40
26. TCU 1.392
27. Florida 1.390
28. Colorado 1.333
29. S Dakota St 1.327 (+103 comp to full year)
30. Cincinnati 1.3012
31. Michigan St 1.3011
32. San Diego St 1.297
116. Oakland 0.28

Good lord UCONN is on fire. We couldn’t crack 3.0 all year even playing our best. Shows why sticking with man to man is dumb as hell to me at least.

 

[Montana81]

26 of auburns 27 wins are by double figures. That is a wild stat. They have a similar profile to uconn last season. They got underseeded relative to how good they actually are because of poor scheduling.

If they get past uconn they could definitely win the whole thing.

Honestly i’m not sure any team has a better win all season than our win at Auburn.

Our wins at tennessee and auburn show this teams game to game ceiling is about as high as anyone’s. They just haven’t able to be consistent for even 3 or 4 games all year. And sadly there’s not much reason to think that’s just going to miraculously change now.

 

[Aike]

26 of auburns 27 wins are by double figures. That is a wild stat. They have a similar profile to uconn last season. They got underseeded relative to how good they actually are because of poor scheduling.

If they get past uconn they could definitely win the whole thing.

Honestly i’m not sure any team has a better win all season than our win at Auburn.

Our wins at tennessee and auburn show this teams game to game ceiling is about as high as anyone’s. They just haven’t able to be consistent for even 3 or 4 games all year. And sadly there’s not much reason to think that’s just going to miraculously change now.

I still don’t trust Auburn’s backcourt. They will steamroll you if you aren’t ready for what they’re bringing, but like you said, we showed what can be done to them.

 

[ukwazoo]

I’m going to list out the full season model, as well as the model for the last 5 weeks of the season.

Before anyone tells me, yes, I’m aware that teams might be high in the model but not make the tournament.

I’ll try to run the full bracket by tomorrow to get overall odds, but this is a start for anyone interested. Feel free to ask questions about specific teams.

Full Season Model

1. UCONN 3.35
2. Auburn 2.89
3. Houston 2.860
4. Arizona 2.859
5. Tennessee 2.5513
6. Iowa St 2.5505
7. Purdue 2.38
8. Marquette 2.06
9. Alabama 2.05
10. Kansas 2.04
11. Kentucky 1.88
12. BYU 1.78
13. Michigan St 1.74
14. Duke 1.70
15. UNC 1.68
16. Gonzaga 1.60
17. Texas 1.55
18. TCU 1.50
19. Colorado 1.49
20. Creighton 1.48
21. St Mary’s 1.44
22. Mississippi St 1.43
23. Baylor 1.41
24. Virginia 1.37
25. St John’s 1.34
26. FAU 1.30
27. Wisconsin 1.29
28. Iowa 1.28
29. Texas Tech 1.21
30. Florida 1.20
31. New Mexico 1.16
32. Northwestern 1.11
128. Oakland 0.1745

Last 5 Weeks Model

1. UCONN 4.67
2. Auburn 3.72
3. St. John’s 3.22 (no wonder RP is so mad)
4. Houston 3.20
5. USC 3.09 (crazy)
6. Tennessee 2.63
7. Iowa St 2.56
8. Gonzaga 2.53
9. Ohio St. 2.52
10. Arizona 2.49
11. Kentucky 2.29
12. Creighton 2.27
13. Purdue 2.20
14. Duke 2.17
15. St Mary’s 2.09
16. UNC 1.87
17. Texas 1.83
18. Marquette 1.78
19. Baylor 1.65
20. Nebraska 1.58
21. Wisconsin 1.56
22. Mississippi St 1.52
23. Villanova 1.51
24. Pittsburgh 1.44
25. Texas Tech 1.40
26. TCU 1.392
27. Florida 1.390
28. Colorado 1.333
29. S Dakota St 1.327 (+103 comp to full year)
30. Cincinnati 1.3012
31. Michigan St 1.3011
32. San Diego St 1.297
116. Oakland 0.28

You filling out your bracket along these lines too, Aike?

 

[CatPatrick13]

I’ll probably regret this, but I think UK gets to the elite 8. The reason? I have zero faith in them and I don’t get too mad when they lose- due to the moronic moves by our coach. I have just lost interest. A final eight would get me going enough to get pissed if they lose.

I get what you’re saying. It’s a defense mechanism. I’m back on the bandwagon baby. Not even prepped for a loss until the final four.

 

[KYCAT78]

I’ve been going back and forth on this Miss St vs Mich St game and a possible Miss St vs Unc game. Am I crazy here? Could Miss St make a surprise run to the S16? I know if I pick it, they get drummed by Izzo lol

Miss State can beat UNC because of their physicalalty up front. Bacon hates contact. They at least have a punchers chance.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Hey FYI, you have St. Johns in there and they didn't make the tournament...

 

[Aike]

Hey FYI, you have St. Johns in there and they didn't make the tournament...

Thanks

 

[Aike]

You filling out your bracket along these lines too, Aike?

Yeah, basically. I’ll still try to take injuries into account. I mostly consider the full season model, but I definitely don’t ignore the trending teams, especially in a close matchup. I’ve filled out brackets before where I just blended the two models 50/50, and they’ve done pretty well.

 

[Montana81]

I still don’t trust Auburn’s backcourt. They will steamroll you if you aren’t ready for what they’re bringing, but like you said, we showed what can be done to them.

I’m in the same boat. they’ve been one of the best teams most of the season. But that backcourt…it’s solid but not spectacular. Their all role players. Not a single guard on that team is what id call a star or a guy that’s capable of just taking over. And most title teams have a guy like that.

After that their biggest hurdle is the fact they got a 4 seed in Uconn’s region. Ooof.

 

[Fox2monk]

I get what you’re saying. It’s a defense mechanism. I’m back on the bandwagon baby. Not even prepped for a loss until the final four.

I’m on the wagon but I don’t trust us to be consistent enough to do it, we absolutely should get an Elite 8. I just don’t know if we bring it consistently enough.

 

[phyrekat]

I’ve been going back and forth on this Miss St vs Mich St game and a possible Miss St vs Unc game. Am I crazy here? Could Miss St make a surprise run to the S16? I know if I pick it, they get drummed by Izzo lol

Pretty much plan on the majority of these "can't call em all" SEC foul factory teams to flame out in the 1st two rounds. I'm looking at you, USC, Miss St, TA&M, Tennessee.

 

[PhattyJ4UK]

Thanks. No matter how you look at it, UConn looks dominate.

What do their looks dominate? The runway? Beauty contest?