Model Update - 2/25/24

[Aike]

Nice move for the Cats, up 2 spots with a +0.21 score movement, which is great this deep into the season.

Here’s the latest update:

1. Arizona 2.94
2. Houston 2.91
3. UCONN 2.88
4. Tennessee 2.74
5. Auburn 2.73
6. Iowa St 2.43
7. Purdue 2.36
8. Kansas 2.33
9. Alabama 2.29
10. Marquette 2.14
11. Kentucky 1.90705
12. Michigan St 1.90704
13. BYU 1.79
14. TCU 1.64
15. UNC 1.63
16. Duke 1.61
17. Creighton 1.57
18. Colorado 1.55
19. Virginia 1.434
20. Mississippi St 1.427
21. St Mary’s 1.41
22. Baylor 1.401
23. Gonzaga 1.400
24. FAU 1.37
25. Texas 1.36


Rest of SEC
33. Florida
42. Mississippi
63. LSU
76. South Carolina
86. ATM
94. Missouri
97. Arkansas
106. Georgia
194. Vandy


I’ve got Mississippi St -1 on Tuesday. Another tough one.

 

[$Z71$]

What is the highest we have finshed in your model since 2019? I feel like this is as high as I remember.

 

[Aike]

What is the highest we have finshed in your model since 2019? I feel like this is as high as I remember.

Off the top of my head, we were 5th in 2019.

I know we were up that high late in the year, but I’m not positive we finished there.

 

[$Z71$]

Off the top of my head, we were 5th in 2019.

I know we were up that high late in the year, but I’m not positive we finished there.

Gotcha, I knew I remembered most our teams being seeded at or above your metrics so I wasn't sure we'd been. That high before from my recollection. Either way keep up the good work.

 

[Aike]

Gotcha, I knew I remembered most our teams being seeded at or above your metrics so I wasn't sure we'd been. That high before from my recollection. Either way keep up the good work.

Never mind, I went back and checked and we were 8th in 2019 with a 2.21 score. Michigan was in 5th at 2.34, so not much separation.

Edit: we were actually 7th in 2022, but our score was 2.09.

 

[WeWant9]

This has got to be the best the SEC has tested since you’ve been doing this, right? Two teams in the top 5, four in the top 15, 5 in the top 25, and a couple just outside it all.

Whoever takes home the sec regular season will have earned it.

 

[Aike]

This has got to be the best the SEC has tested since you’ve been doing this, right? Two teams in the top 5, four in the top 15, 5 in the top 25, and a couple just outside it all.

Whoever takes home the sec regular season will have earned it.

22 and 23 were similar at the top. Believe we have better depth, with only one bad team this year.

 

[TheDude73]

Michigan St. 🤣

 

[Aike]

Michigan St. 🤣

What’s funny?

 

[TheDude73]

What’s funny?

It’s hard to understand models without seeing the math behind them. MSU is a horrible team but there they are right behind UK.

 

[Aike]

It’s hard to understand models without seeing the math behind them. MSU is a horrible team but there they are right behind UK.

They are 17th in Kenpom. Pretty good offense/defense balance. No bad losses. Beat Baylor by 24. Have a coach with a history of knowing what he’s doing in March.

Maybe it shouldn’t be shocking that their statistical profile aligns with moderately successful tournament teams of the past.

 

[Oldbluefart]

Nice move for the Cats, up 2 spots with a +0.21 score movement, which is great this deep into the season.

Here’s the latest update:

1. Arizona 2.94
2. Houston 2.91
3. UCONN 2.88
4. Tennessee 2.74
5. Auburn 2.73
6. Iowa St 2.43
7. Purdue 2.36
8. Kansas 2.33
9. Alabama 2.29
10. Marquette 2.14
11. Kentucky 1.90705
12. Michigan St 1.90704
13. BYU 1.79
14. TCU 1.64
15. UNC 1.63
16. Duke 1.61
17. Creighton 1.57
18. Colorado 1.55
19. Virginia 1.434
20. Mississippi St 1.427
21. St Mary’s 1.41
22. Baylor 1.401
23. Gonzaga 1.400
24. FAU 1.37
25. Texas 1.36


Rest of SEC
33. Florida
42. Mississippi
63. LSU
76. South Carolina
86. ATM
94. Missouri
97. Arkansas
106. Georgia
194. Vandy


I’ve got Mississippi St -1 on Tuesday. Another tough one.

Thanks again Aike for doing this.
Couple things:' how much did the loss at LSU hurt us; with so many TV guys putting North Carolina in their top picks to reach the FF, what are you seeing that is keeping them under us; Michigan St? I understand your point but the eye test on them is questionable; which teams in from of UK in the SEC do you feel will lose to help us move up for seeding in the SEC Tournament?
Again, thank you

 

[Aike]

Thanks again Aike for doing this.
Couple things:' how much did the loss at LSU hurt us; with so many TV guys putting North Carolina in their top picks to reach the FF, what are you seeing that is keeping them under us; Michigan St? I understand your point but the eye test on them is questionable; which teams in from of UK in the SEC do you feel will lose to help us move up for seeding in the SEC Tournament?
Again, thank you

We fell slightly after LSU, but not that much.

UNC doesn’t shoot it that well, and they aren’t very disruptive defensively. Still looks like they will be gifted a 1/2 seed, so they probably won’t be an underdog until the Elite Eight if they make it that far.

Michigan St. I’ve covered.

I ran the numbers last week, and South Carolina had the toughest road ahead. But them winning at Mississippi yesterday makes the math a little tougher.

South Carolina is a good team if they can dictate style/tempo. But they lost by 27 to Bama and 40 to Auburn. If things aren’t going their way, it can get ugly, clearly.

 

[BBUK]

Taking in your model Aike. I also tried including the smell test as to the stench that is UK coaching. I have been focusing on if this team can possibly win six games in a row and could not convince myself that was possible so I did some searching. I actually did not have to dig too deeply. UK has won six regular season games in a row this season so I guess it can be done. (Thinking about the probability of winning the tournament.)

Sure would like to see some sort of model predicting teams that can win six in a row and compare that to the field "possibilities".. (I used to veer off into that type math but refrain mostly now.)

Just typing out loud Aike. Thanks for these threads. They make you think,,,

 

[Aike]

Taking in your model Aike. I also tried including the smell test as to the stench that is UK coaching. I have been focusing on if this team can possibly win six games in a row and could not convince myself that was possible so I did some searching. I actually did not have to dig too deeply. UK has won six regular season games in a row this season so I guess it can be done. (Thinking about the probability of winning the tournament.)

Sure would like to see some sort of model predicting teams that can win six in a row and compare that to the field "possibilities".. (I used to veer off into that type math but refrain mostly now.)

Just typing out loud Aike. Thanks for these threads. It makes you think,,,

I’ve always thought that is a good, simple metric. I actually checked the same thing earlier today.

I’m not sure how many champions have ever entered the tournament without any 6+ game win streaks, but it can’t be many.

 

[Cowtown Cat]

Taking in your model Aike. I also tried including the smell test as to the stench that is UK coaching. I have been focusing on if this team can possibly win six games in a row and could not convince myself that was possible so I did some searching. I actually did not have to dig too deeply. UK has won six regular season games in a row this season so I guess it can be done. (Thinking about the probability of winning the tournament.)

Sure would like to see some sort of model predicting teams that can win six in a row and compare that to the field "possibilities".. (I used to veer off into that type math but refrain mostly now.)

Just typing out loud Aike. Thanks for these threads. They make you think,,,

Huh?!

 

[BBUK]

I’ve always thought that is a good, simple metric. I actually checked the same thing earlier today.

I’m not sure how many champions have ever entered the tournament without any 6+ game win streaks, but it can’t be many.

Da Brudder called me a simple metric... What he doesn't know is, I've been called simple-minded before... 🥲

 

[Aike]

Da Brudder called me a simple metric... What he doesn't know is, I've been called simple-minded before... 🥲

Simple is good!