3/1/24 Model Update

[Aike]

We really need to put the hammer down these next two games, before we close out at UT.

We are right on the verge of being what I would consider a “borderline contender.” Can’t take anymore slip ups or backtracking.

Here’s how the ratings look going into the weekend:

1. Arizona 2.94
2. Houston 2.89
3. UCONN 2.88
4. Auburn 2.74
5. Tennessee 2.71
6. Purdue 2.38
7. Alabama 2.37
8. Iowa St 2.35
9. Kansas 2.23088
10. Marquette 2.23083
11. Kentucky 1.95
12. BYU 1.85
13. Michigan St 1.81
14. Duke 1.66
15. UNC 1.62
16. Colorado 1.59
17. TCU 1.55
18. St Mary’s 1.50
19. Creighton 1.48
20. Baylor 1.47
21. Virginia 1.46
22. Gonzaga 1.44
23. Texas 1.424
24. Mississippi St 1.417
25. FAU 1.30
26. Iowa 1.26
27. St John’s 1.20 (Up 12 spots)


Rest of SEC
30. Florida
42. Mississippi
63. LSU
74. South Carolina
88. ATM
94. Missouri
100. Arkansas
101. Georgia
190. Vandy

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

Thanks for posting, @Aike . In your view, who are the four best teams in the country right now?

 

[Aike]

Thanks for posting, @Aike . In your view, who are the four best teams in the country right now?

UCONN, Houston, Arizona, and Tennessee.

 

[Atrain7732]

Looks as good as anything I’ve seen. Thanks for sharing

 

[Aike]

Looks as good as anything I’ve seen. Thanks for sharing

No problem

 

[Montana81]

Pretty much all the metrics agree that Mississippi State win was a good one.

I just hate how we finished. Gave up 14 points in under a minute lol. I just don’t think our defense has really improved that much.

 

[Tampa_cat54]

I like your model and I do get it, but man- Auburn just is not the 4th best team in America, or even a title contender IMO.

Auburn and Alabama have combined for ONE Quad-1 win outside of each other all season.

Just can't really understand.

Michigan State at 13 is also very odd. Iowa State and Marquette are also not great IMO.

Don't get me wrong, love your model updates and the effort, etc., but this is a weird year in college basketball apparently, I don't see it with a lot of these teams.

 

[Tampa_cat54]

Pretty much all the metrics agree that Mississippi State win was a good one.

I just hate how we finished. Gave up 14 points in under a minute lol. I just don’t think our defense has really improved that much.

I mean that was an unconscious effort- nothing we could do about those hardly.

I am actually thrilled with the way that game finished- we needed to win a game that way just to know that we could!

 

[bbncal02]

Pretty much all the metrics agree that Mississippi State win was a good one.

I just hate how we finished. Gave up 14 points in under a minute lol. I just don’t think our defense has really improved that much.

It has and it hasn’t. When we’re focused we can play some decent defense. When we get up big or think the game is over is when it gets really awful.

 

[nickhorvathsuxazz]

I like your model and I do get it, but man- Auburn just is not the 4th best team in America, or even a title contender IMO.

Auburn and Alabama have combined for ONE Quad-1 win outside of each other all season.

Just can't really understand.

Michigan State at 13 is also very odd. Iowa State and Marquette are also not great IMO.

Don't get me wrong, love your model updates and the effort, etc., but this is a weird year in college basketball apparently, I don't see it with a lot of these teams.

These are teh same things (aub, al, mi st) that caught my eye. Also, 12 spots is a helluva jump for the johnnies.

It's obvious that UK needs to curb stomp arky tomorrow if we're going to crack the top 10. Hang a hondo on them and hold them to the 60's would be great.

 

[Fox2monk]

We really need to put the hammer down these next two games, before we close out at UT.

We are right on the verge of being what I would consider a “borderline contender.” Can’t take anymore slip ups or backtracking.

Here’s how the ratings look going into the weekend:

1. Arizona 2.94
2. Houston 2.89
3. UCONN 2.88
4. Auburn 2.74
5. Tennessee 2.71
6. Purdue 2.38
7. Alabama 2.37
8. Iowa St 2.35
9. Kansas 2.23088
10. Marquette 2.23083
11. Kentucky 1.95
12. BYU 1.85
13. Michigan St 1.81
14. Duke 1.66
15. UNC 1.62
16. Colorado 1.59
17. TCU 1.55
18. St Mary’s 1.50
19. Creighton 1.48
20. Baylor 1.47
21. Virginia 1.46
22. Gonzaga 1.44
23. Texas 1.424
24. Mississippi St 1.417
25. FAU 1.30
26. Iowa 1.26
27. St John’s 1.20 (Up 12 spots)


Rest of SEC
30. Florida
42. Mississippi
63. LSU
74. South Carolina
88. ATM
94. Missouri
100. Arkansas
101. Georgia
190. Vandy

I want to get above 2.0, we are so close. St. John’s is the most surprising team on there imo.

 

[Aike]

I want to get above 2.0, we are so close.

I would like to see that too.

 

[BBUK]

Michigan State? 😲

 

[Aike]

I like your model and I do get it, but man- Auburn just is not the 4th best team in America, or even a title contender IMO.

Auburn and Alabama have combined for ONE Quad-1 win outside of each other all season.

Just can't really understand.

Michigan State at 13 is also very odd. Iowa State and Marquette are also not great IMO.

Don't get me wrong, love your model updates and the effort, etc., but this is a weird year in college basketball apparently, I don't see it with a lot of these teams.

These aren’t rankings. So it isn’t saying that Auburn is the 4th best team in the country.

It’s saying that teams with similar statistical profiles as Auburn have averaged winning 2.74 games in the tournament over the past decade or so. It’s passing no judgement about which teams have had the best seasons.

There is something about the way they play that is conducive to tournament success.

Doesn’t mean they will win it, or even be one of the 4 favorites. If they are a 4 seed, they will have a tougher path and odds of winning will drop.

Even the teams with the best odds are typically around 10% or so to win it all when the tournament starts.

 

[Aike]

Michigan St. is 21 in Kenpom with a top 15 defense.

Everyone has a problem with them being 13 in this model, but don’t seem to have a problem with us being 11 in my model vs. 18 in Kenpom.

I’m just glad to see them in front of Duke/UNC. Gives me some hope.

 

[JimBR]

South Carolina at 74 is a surprise.

 

[Aike]

South Carolina at 74 is a surprise.

Terrible SOS. A couple of blowout defeats and a bunch of narrow victories.

They obviously have had much better than the 74th best season.

 

[EliteBlue]

Nice to see we’ve beaten 2 of the top 10 and played another to the wire having a double digit point lead at one point.

If not for all the Q4 cupcakes and the UNCW debacle you’d have to think we’d be above a 2.0 and likely top 8

 

[The_Answer1313]

I like your model and I do get it, but man- Auburn just is not the 4th best team in America, or even a title contender IMO.

Auburn and Alabama have combined for ONE Quad-1 win outside of each other all season.

Just can't really understand.

Michigan State at 13 is also very odd. Iowa State and Marquette are also not great IMO.

Don't get me wrong, love your model updates and the effort, etc., but this is a weird year in college basketball apparently, I don't see it with a lot of these teams.

FWIW Auburn is 6th and Alabama is 7th in Kenpom
Alabama is 6th in NET and Auburn is 7th.

This goes back to the whole age old question of what we are shooting for here.

Are we seeding teams based on whether or not they are the best team or are we seeding teams based on resume?

The two go hand in hand but they are not the same. People see this when Gonzaga is given a 1 seed despite not having a 1 seed resume.

It's true to say that Alabama and Auburn don't have top 10 resume. But that might not necessarily mean that Auburn and Alabama aren't a top 10 team overall.

 

[Aike]

Nice to see we’ve beaten 2 of the top 10 and played another to the wire having a double digit point lead at one point.

If not for all the Q4 cupcakes and the UNCW debacle you’d have to think we’d be above a 2.0 and likely top 8

Yeah, our SOS is still relatively weak and holding us back.

 

[Tampa_cat54]

FWIW Auburn is 6th and Alabama is 7th in Kenpom
Alabama is 6th in NET and Auburn is 7th.

This goes back to the whole age old question of what we are shooting for here.

Are we seeding teams based on whether or not they are the best team or are we seeding teams based on resume?

The two go hand in hand but they are not the same. People see this when Gonzaga is given a 1 seed despite not having a 1 seed resume.

It's true to say that Alabama and Auburn don't have top 10 resume. But that might not necessarily mean that Auburn and Alabama aren't a top 10 team overall.

Oh I'm well aware. That's why I said it's a weird year in college basketball- those ratings are not justified IMO.

It blows me away how a team could have one Quad 1 win and be top 7 or top 8.