Model Update Post Arkansas

[runt#69]

Nice write-up!

This is overly simplistic, but I will continue to have concerns about Kansas because they’ve shown they can get it done. I’ll worry less about Tennessee because they haven’t.

I’m not sure I trust Auburn, but Pearl can coach and he has a Final Four more recently than we do. I like their freshman pg and their inside game. They need to prove they can win away from home (hope they don’t).

I haven’t really watched Texas Tech but they are improving and the Big 12 is a gauntlet.

UNC is on a nice run and are strangely in line for a 1 seed. You have to assume they will get every break. Need them to start flubbing up.

I always value your opinion and write ups Aike. Many thanks !

I guess the thing that gets me about Kansas, Auburn, and Tennessee is that I am not convinced, after watching a fair amount of games they have played this year, of winning away from home. UNC, not so much in that regards. and I maybe totally wrong in my impressions.

I'm most impressed with Purdue, UConn and Houston. I think they have risen to the top of the college hoops world. Everyone else seems a cut below them. They've been consistent.

Kentucky, to me, seems to be the wild X Factor. Talent wise, ceiling wise, we look to be more dangerous than anyone else. We haven't proven it though. We have proven we are a good team. So far. Much can change.

My optimistic thinking tells me Kentucky is going to step forward and rise up, raise our game. My heart has doubts, but it always does. My head says everyone has flaws and march madness is what it is, so expect the unexpected.

But in the end, after all the upsets and seeding is done, and we're deep into the tournament, by the second weekend, Kentucky will be standing tall and looking good. Some teams we think or expect to be there won't be. And who knows? As unpredictable as the tournament is, maybe this might be a great year for us after all !

I'd love to see this team get back on track and get a killer instinct. Get mean and nasty. Angry. Play harder, more angry, focused, and do what they are capable of. The pieces are there. Can we get there?

I think we can, and we will. Gotta stay optimistic !

Go Big Blue !

 

[DreadLox]

Teams score between 0-6, representing their expected number of wins in the tournament.

So a team with a 3 would have a midpoint expectation of making the Elite Eight.

So, everyone is nibbling away at 131? (rough guess at total number of possible wins in the tournament)

 

[Aike]

So, everyone is nibbling away at 131? (rough guess at total number of possible wins in the tournament)

I don’t include the First Four games. There are 63 wins not counting the First Four games.

 

[Aike]

I always value your opinion and write ups Aike. Many thanks !

I guess the thing that gets me about Kansas, Auburn, and Tennessee is that I am not convinced, after watching a fair amount of games they have played this year, of winning away from home. UNC, not so much in that regards. and I maybe totally wrong in my impressions.

I'm most impressed with Purdue, UConn and Houston. I think they have risen to the top of the college hoops world. Everyone else seems a cut below them. They've been consistent.

Kentucky, to me, seems to be the wild X Factor. Talent wise, ceiling wise, we look to be more dangerous than anyone else. We haven't proven it though. We have proven we are a good team. So far. Much can change.

My optimistic thinking tells me Kentucky is going to step forward and rise up, raise our game. My heart has doubts, but it always does. My head says everyone has flaws and march madness is what it is, so expect the unexpected.

But in the end, after all the upsets and seeding is done, and we're deep into the tournament, by the second weekend, Kentucky will be standing tall and looking good. Some teams we think or expect to be there won't be. And who knows? As unpredictable as the tournament is, maybe this might be a great year for us after all !

I'd love to see this team get back on track and get a killer instinct. Get mean and nasty. Angry. Play harder, more angry, focused, and do what they are capable of. The pieces are there. Can we get there?

I think we can, and we will. Gotta stay optimistic !

Go Big Blue !

I agree that those are the three most solid, consistent teams.

In defense of Kansas (which I hate to do), I remember how their point guard took over when he needed to when we played them on a neutral court. Granted, that seems like a long time ago.

To balance that thought, I think Dickinson is a chump who deserves bad things. Of course guys like Christian Laettner and Shane Battier won titles, so I don’t always get my way.

Either way, I would expect Kansas to bow out in the Elite Eight or earlier, but I wouldn’t sleep on them.

 

[JimBR]

Always interesting Aike.

I like how Iowa State held up, so has Bama. Looks good so far. UK seems to be in good shape, provided we can keep winning, as it should be.

I wonder about tennessee though. The biggest game they won was wayyy back when they won @ wisky. Still holding up well in conference, but I am expecting them to start losing and being exposed as not so formidable as it would appear.

I also think Kansas is due for some more losses, and a fall from being On High. The Vols and Kansas are the two teams I think will - from here on out, start to lose more often. Then get bounced in the tournament and ultimately being exposed.

I also feel like Auburn is a paper tiger. No quad 1 wins will change, but that is telling at this point of the season. Just the fact that they have lost all significant possibilities at big wins, and not really being tested and passed .... not a good look for them.

Now, wether UT, KU, or Auburn will actually fall much in the polls here on out is to be determined, I think they will fall slightly, but it seems most everyone has made up their minds as that they belong at some kind of top echelon. I simply disagree.

teams like South carolina, texas Tech intrigue me. Either the 3 losses they have now holds up or they will lose a lot more as well. dunno what to make of them.

I think ultimately, UNC and Duke will also be exposed in yet another down year for the ACC.

But for my money. Kentucky still has the highest potential to make a lot of noise. Regardless of the road losses. I like our chances.

a lot.

we shall see


but great job, always very interesting to look at how things progress, great work ! keep it up !

I agree with the Auburn comment. Is their best win Ole Miss? Their losses are respectable, Baylor, App St, MS State & Bama. They are very tough at home. Any insight by your model has them so high?

 

[Runnin'Ramel]

For sure. I always expect him to choke until he doesn’t. But I’m curious if anyone is going to figure out how to slow down Knecht.

The good news is that even when he had Kevin Durant, Barnes blew it.

I would tell Thiero his job is to face guard and shut down Knecht. Never leave him for any reason.

 

[Aike]

I agree with the Auburn comment. Is their best win Ole Miss? Their losses are respectable, Baylor, App St, MS State & Bama. They are very tough at home. Any insight by your model has them so high?

They’ve been excellent defensively, and do a good job of taking care of the ball/sharing the ball on offense.

 

[Untouchables22]

UNC is on a nice run and are strangely in line for a 1 seed. You have to assume they will get every break. Need them to start flubbing up.

You aren’t wrong….but the ACC is a mid-major league this year with only 3 tournament bids likely. The Mountain West is going to get more bids than the ACC. I hate how teams like Gonzaga, Houston (prior to this year) and Arizona get #1 seeds for beating up on BAD conferences. The selection committee values a lack of losses historically over quality wins.

 

[Aike]

You aren’t wrong….but the ACC is a mid-major league this year with only 3 tournament bids likely. The Mountain West is going to get more bids than the ACC. I hate how teams like Gonzaga, Houston (prior to this year) and Arizona get #1 seeds for beating up on BAD conferences. The selection committee values a lack of losses historically over quality wins.

UNC with 4 Q1 wins, no bad losses, and that win over UT may end up being big for them.

We need the ACC to muck each other up some. They will try to coronate UNC if possible.

We need to win the SEC. Then maybe our win over UNC will boost us.

 

[Untouchables22]

UNC with 4 Q1 wins, no bad losses, and that win over UT may end up being big for them.

We need the ACC to muck each other up some. They will try to coronate UNC if possible.

We need to win the SEC. Then maybe our win over UNC will boost us.

I guess my question is it possible in the model to penalize teams fairly if there conferences are crap and they don’t play a threshold amount of high quality games? It’s wild how much harder a Big 12 and SEC schedule is this year compared to a PAC 12/ACC schedule. The Big 12 = Thunderdome this year.

 

[Aike]

I guess my question is it possible in the model to penalize teams fairly if there conferences are crap and they don’t play a threshold amount of high quality games? It’s wild how much harder a Big 12 and SEC schedule is this year compared to a PAC 12/ACC schedule. The Big 12 = Thunderdome this year.

SOS matters. If your conference is weak you better be beating the snot out of teams to move up.