Model Update Post Arkansas

[Aike]

Top teams deliver strong wins. Purdue on the rise, Auburn falling. Carolina creeps up a spot while Duke slips.


1. Arizona 3.05
2. Houston 2.99
3. Tennessee 2.70
4. Purdue 2.59
5. Iowa St 2.56
6. Auburn 2.55
7. Connecticut 2.38
8. Alabama 2.37
9. Kansas 2.25
10. BYU 2.18
11. Marquette 1.96
12. Kentucky 1.83
13. Michigan St 1.73
14. Colorado 1.67
15. North Carolina 1.659
16. TCU 1.657
17. Duke 1.63
18. Virginia 1.55
19. Wisconsin 1.53
20. Iowa 1.52
21. FAU 1.39
22. Mississippi St 1.30
23. Texas Tech 1.26
24. Clemson 1.244
25. New Mexico 1.237


Rest of SEC

33. Mississippi (up 4 spots yesterday)
44. Florida
63. LSU (down 3 spots)
77. ATM (down 3)
78. South Carolina (up 3)
79. Missouri
94. Georgia (up 3)
111. Arkansas
173. Vandy (down 5)

 

[ukjenning44]

I remember Tennessee was high in your model last season. Good thing is that Rick Barnes will be coaching them in the NCAAT 😊

 

[Wonky]

I remember Tennessee was high in your model last season. Good thing is that Rick Barnes will be coaching them in the NCAAT 😊

I don’t think UT will reach the FF, just because they are UT. But I gotta say, I love Knecht. Not just his game but his confidence and swagger. Wish he was wearing blue.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I like that when teams lose they fall. None of this "well they lost 2 in a row but because their Offensive possession metrics were OK, they didn't drop".

You lose two in a row, you drop. That needs to be factored into metrics a little more.

 

[Aike]

I remember Tennessee was high in your model last season. Good thing is that Rick Barnes will be coaching them in the NCAAT 😊

For sure. I always expect him to choke until he doesn’t. But I’m curious if anyone is going to figure out how to slow down Knecht.

The good news is that even when he had Kevin Durant, Barnes blew it.

 

[Aike]

I like that when teams lose they fall. None of this "well they lost 2 in a row but because their Offensive possession metrics were OK, they didn't drop".

You lose two in a row, you drop. That needs to be factored into metrics a little more.

To be fair, what you’re describing can still happen with this. Georgia moved up slightly after a close loss to Florida, for instance.

But as you can see, the teams are fairly bunched up. If you play poorly enough to lose, there’s a decent chance you’ll lose enough of your rating to drop.

 

[ukjenning44]

For sure. I always expect him to choke until he doesn’t. But I’m curious if anyone is going to figure out how to slow down Knecht.

The good news is that even when he had Kevin Durant, Barnes blew it.

That’s what I’m thinking. If you can’t make a FF with KD, you’re not making it with Knecht.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

To be fair, what you’re describing can still happen with this. Georgia moved up slightly after a close loss to Florida, for instance.

But as you can see, the teams are fairly bunched up. If you play poorly enough to lose, there’s a decent chance you’ll lose enough of your rating to drop.

Then I take it back. I DON'T like this model very much.

 

[sluggercatfan]

I remember Tennessee was high in your model last season. Good thing is that Rick Barnes will be coaching them in the NCAAT 😊

Yes, and CCC will be coaching UK! What's your point?

 

[WeWant9]

Still think UK is in a good spot. We got 4 shots at teams in the top 10 to keep climbing up (2x Tenn, Bama, and @Auburn).

 

[Aike]

Then I take it back. I DON'T like this model very much.

Nice

 

[Aike]

Still think UK is in a good spot. We got 4 shots at teams in the top 10 to keep climbing up (2x Tenn, Bama, and @Auburn).

It’s very much in our hands, but we have to step it up. I think this week is crucial. Two challenging games, but both at home.

 

[WeWant9]

It’s very much in our hands, but we have to step it up. I think this week is crucial. Two challenging games, but both at home.

No doubt. I wasn’t looking forward to this past week- back to road games at places we typically have issues. I thought we’d go 1-1, but opposite results.

Got to protect home court. Go 2-0 next week and the outlook is good again lol. The FL game has “trap game” written all over it though, staff and players need to be dialed in for it.

 

[Aike]

No doubt. I wasn’t looking forward to this past week- back to road games at places we typically have issues. I thought we’d go 1-1, but opposite results.

Got to protect home court. Go 2-0 next week and the outlook is good again lol. The FL game has “trap game” written all over it though, staff and players need to be dialed in for it.

At least Florida likes to run. Hopefully we can get our offense clicking again heading to the Tennessee game.

 

[YardCat]

I don’t think UT will reach the FF, just because they are UT. But I gotta say, I love Knecht. Not just his game but his confidence and swagger. Wish he was wearing blue.

His vertical and wingspan weren’t NBA numbers, so we didn’t really try to get him. 😝

 

[Fox2monk]

It’s very much in our hands, but we have to step it up. I think this week is crucial. Two challenging games, but both at home.

Did our score improve at all from last week or did South Carolina sink it even further?

 

[Aike]

Did our score improve at all from last week or did South Carolina sink it even further?

South Carolina sunk us quite a bit. Yesterday we went down very slightly. Like 0.03 or something.

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

Top teams deliver strong wins. Purdue on the rise, Auburn falling. Carolina creeps up a spot while Duke slips.


1. Arizona 3.05
2. Houston 2.99
3. Tennessee 2.70
4. Purdue 2.59
5. Iowa St 2.56
6. Auburn 2.55
7. Connecticut 2.38
8. Alabama 2.37
9. Kansas 2.25
10. BYU 2.18
11. Marquette 1.96
12. Kentucky 1.83
13. Michigan St 1.73
14. Colorado 1.67
15. North Carolina 1.659
16. TCU 1.657
17. Duke 1.63
18. Virginia 1.55
19. Wisconsin 1.53
20. Iowa 1.52
21. FAU 1.39
22. Mississippi St 1.30
23. Texas Tech 1.26
24. Clemson 1.244
25. New Mexico 1.237


Rest of SEC

33. Mississippi (up 4 spots yesterday)
44. Florida
63. LSU (down 3 spots)
77. ATM (down 3)
78. South Carolina (up 3)
79. Missouri
94. Georgia (up 3)
111. Arkansas
173. Vandy (down 5)

Was Arizona high in your model last year?

 

[Fox2monk]

South Carolina sunk us quite a bit. Yesterday we went down very slightly. Like 0.03 or something.

I figured. Hope we can build off that road win. We showed toughness. Need to get our offense clicking again. I was hoping the defensive improvements may have cause us to rise a bit.

 

[Aike]

I figured. Hope we can build off that road win. We showed toughness. Need to get our offense clicking again.

Honestly, if you can play a road game without much of a dip I think you’re doing ok. But we need to put the hammer down at home.

 

[Aike]

Was Arizona high in your model last year?

They were 10th when the season ended, with a score of 1.74, which would put them 13th right now.

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

They were 10th when the season ended, with a score of 1.74, which would put them 13th right now.

Arizona is just a wierd team to me. Their frontcourt is great and loaded, but like last year I just don’t know if I can fully trust those guards. Love is dilly on 10 years of steroids, and the Boswell kid is just not consistent

 

[Aike]

Arizona is just a wierd team to me. Their frontcourt is great and loaded, but like last year I just don’t know if I can fully trust those guards. Love is dilly on 10 years of steroids, and the Boswell kid is just not consistent

One thing I go back to and mentioned yesterday is that Love has already taken a team to the title game. And that team was a mess all year.

They have definitely shown their vulnerability, but I think anyone dismissing Arizona out of hand is making a mistake.

They may be more high ceiling/low floor than teams like Houston/Purdue/UCONN, but no one should be surprised if Arizona makes a Final Four run. And where is the Final Four this year?

 

[bigbluehomer]

Just curious, where does UL rank? 😆

 

[Fox2monk]

Honestly, if you can play a road game without much of a dip I think you’re doing ok. But we need to put the hammer down at home.

💯, I’m very happy about the last 4 minutes last night. May have been the best we have executed all year at the end, and definitely when we were in a 1 point game on the road.

 

[Aike]

Just curious, where does UL rank? 😆

183

 

[Aike]

💯, I’m very happy about the last 4 minutes last night. May have been the best we have executed all year at the end, and definitely when we were in a 1 point game on the road.

It was great to see, especially with multiple guys stepping up and hitting big shots. Also nice to see Onyenso somewhat dependable as a release valve.

 

[Fox2monk]

183

That’s honestly higher that I thought they would be. Kenny definitely needs an extension.

 

[Aike]

That’s honestly higher that I thought they would be. Kenny definitely needs an extension.

Poised to make a deep run. I expect them to play at least one game in the ACC tournament this year.

 

[Cats192]

I think our metrics are skewed and will remain skewed. We've NEVER had the full squad. It would be interesting to see what the metrics look like over an isolated month like February with the entire team playing.

Win the next 2 games and things should change quite a bit.

 

[Aike]

I think our metrics are skewed and will remain skewed. We've NEVER had the full squad. It would be interesting to see what the metrics look like over an isolated month like February with the entire team playing.

Win the next 2 games and things should change quite a bit.

Last year I ran numbers for just the last month of the season to see how teams were trending.

No offense, but I think the full squad thing is a bit of an excuse. We seem to have these problems year after year. At some point, you have to question why that is.

We know we need to win games all year to earn a 1 seed. We haven’t done that since 2015. So something isn’t working right.

But I’m ever the optimist. We have pieces. More than most. And yesterday was a nice “stem the bleeding” road win.

We need to attack the meat of our schedule. This thing could still go either way.

 

[Fox2monk]

Poised to make a deep run. I expect them to play at least one game in the ACC tournament this year.

They are definitely a lock to make it..

 

[bigbluehomer]

183

Yeah, that's a lot higher than I thought as well. Thanks for answering. It was a question intended for humor, but I was also genuinely interested.

 

[Cats192]

Last year I ran numbers for just the last month of the season to see how teams were trending.

No offense, but I think the full squad thing is a bit of an excuse. We seem to have these problems year after year. At some point, you have to question why that is.

We know we need to win games all year to earn a 1 seed. We haven’t done that since 2015. So something isn’t working right.

But I’m ever the optimist. We have pieces. More than most. And yesterday was a nice “stem the bleeding” road win.

We need to attack the meat of our schedule. This thing could still go either way.

I just have a hard time believing missing multiple key pieces for multiple chunks of the season doesn't affect performance.

I would certainly think this season's numbers are independent of past season's. Hell, we never have more than 1-2 hold overs.

I really don't think we've had this much talent since the Fox and Monk team. This team may have more overall talent than that one.

We've had a bad stretch the last 5 or 6 years. No doubt. Recruiting fell off. Guys we were getting didn't perform as advertised. Cal has been stubborn in regards to changing his coaching philosophy.

I don't know, when you say that "it's a trend," what factors from the last 5 years influence our metrics this year? That just wouldn't seem to matter to me.

 

[runt#69]

Always interesting Aike.

I like how Iowa State held up, so has Bama. Looks good so far. UK seems to be in good shape, provided we can keep winning, as it should be.

I wonder about tennessee though. The biggest game they won was wayyy back when they won @ wisky. Still holding up well in conference, but I am expecting them to start losing and being exposed as not so formidable as it would appear.

I also think Kansas is due for some more losses, and a fall from being On High. The Vols and Kansas are the two teams I think will - from here on out, start to lose more often. Then get bounced in the tournament and ultimately being exposed.

I also feel like Auburn is a paper tiger. No quad 1 wins will change, but that is telling at this point of the season. Just the fact that they have lost all significant possibilities at big wins, and not really being tested and passed .... not a good look for them.

Now, wether UT, KU, or Auburn will actually fall much in the polls here on out is to be determined, I think they will fall slightly, but it seems most everyone has made up their minds as that they belong at some kind of top echelon. I simply disagree.

teams like South carolina, texas Tech intrigue me. Either the 3 losses they have now holds up or they will lose a lot more as well. dunno what to make of them.

I think ultimately, UNC and Duke will also be exposed in yet another down year for the ACC.

But for my money. Kentucky still has the highest potential to make a lot of noise. Regardless of the road losses. I like our chances.

a lot.

we shall see


but great job, always very interesting to look at how things progress, great work ! keep it up !

 

[Aike]

I just have a hard time believing missing multiple key pieces for multiple chunks of the season doesn't affect performance.

I would certainly think this season's numbers are independent of past season's. Hell, we never have more than 1-2 hold overs.

I really don't think we've had this much talent since the Fox and Monk team. This team may have more overall talent than that one.

We've had a bad stretch the last 5 or 6 years. No doubt. Recruiting fell off. Guys we were getting didn't perform as advertised. Cal has been stubborn in regards to changing his coaching philosophy.

I don't know, when you say that "it's a trend," what factors from the last 5 years influence our metrics this year? That just wouldn't seem to matter to me.

Prior year performance has no impact on this year’s model score.

I don’t disagree that missing key pieces affects performance. I just think we have to question why this seems to happen to us year after year after year. There are other programs that seem to hold it together better than we do.

I think we probably do have the most talent since 2017, but I’m not convinced this team is better than 2019 yet. Could be.

 

[Cats192]

Prior year performance has no impact on this year’s model score.

I don’t disagree that missing key pieces affects performance. I just think we have to question why this seems to happen to us year after year after year. There are other programs that seem to hold it together better than we do.

I think we probably do have the most talent since 2017, but I’m not convinced this team is better than 2019 yet. Could be.

Oh, I think Calipari started to rest on his laurels. The recruiting fire up and died. The development seemed to fall way off. Everyone else started trying to play like the NBA, and Cal dug his heels in and said "Dribble Drive Good. Dribble Drive work."

He's figured out he was wrong, and has changed a lot of the things that were hurting us. I'm optomistic about the next 3-5 years as long as he keeps the fire in his belly.

 

[Aike]

Always interesting Aike.

I like how Iowa State held up, so has Bama. Looks good so far. UK seems to be in good shape, provided we can keep winning, as it should be.

I wonder about tennessee though. The biggest game they won was wayyy back when they won @ wisky. Still holding up well in conference, but I am expecting them to start losing and being exposed as not so formidable as it would appear.

I also think Kansas is due for some more losses, and a fall from being On High. The Vols and Kansas are the two teams I think will - from here on out, start to lose more often. Then get bounced in the tournament and ultimately being exposed.

I also feel like Auburn is a paper tiger. No quad 1 wins will change, but that is telling at this point of the season. Just the fact that they have lost all significant possibilities at big wins, and not really being tested and passed .... not a good look for them.

Now, wether UT, KU, or Auburn will actually fall much in the polls here on out is to be determined, I think they will fall slightly, but it seems most everyone has made up their minds as that they belong at some kind of top echelon. I simply disagree.

teams like South carolina, texas Tech intrigue me. Either the 3 losses they have now holds up or they will lose a lot more as well. dunno what to make of them.

I think ultimately, UNC and Duke will also be exposed in yet another down year for the ACC.

But for my money. Kentucky still has the highest potential to make a lot of noise. Regardless of the road losses. I like our chances.

a lot.

we shall see


but great job, always very interesting to look at how things progress, great work ! keep it up !

Nice write-up!

This is overly simplistic, but I will continue to have concerns about Kansas because they’ve shown they can get it done. I’ll worry less about Tennessee because they haven’t.

I’m not sure I trust Auburn, but Pearl can coach and he has a Final Four more recently than we do. I like their freshman pg and their inside game. They need to prove they can win away from home (hope they don’t).

I haven’t really watched Texas Tech but they are improving and the Big 12 is a gauntlet.

UNC is on a nice run and are strangely in line for a 1 seed. You have to assume they will get every break. Need them to start flubbing up.

 

[DreadLox]

Top teams deliver strong wins. Purdue on the rise, Auburn falling. Carolina creeps up a spot while Duke slips.


1. Arizona 3.05
[etc]

What do the numbers in your model indicate?

 

[Aike]

What do the numbers in your model indicate?

Teams score between 0-6, representing their expected number of wins in the tournament.

So a team with a 3 would have a midpoint expectation of making the Elite Eight.