3/8/24 Model Update - New King in Town

[Aike]

Going into the final weekend of the regular season, a new top team has finally emerged.

Here’s how things stand going into Knoxville tomorrow:

1. UCONN 3.14
2. Arizona 3.11
3. Houston 2.88
4. Auburn 2.80
5. Tennessee 2.70
6. Purdue 2.47
7. Kansas 2.32
8. Iowa St 2.31
9. Alabama 2.13
10. Marquette 2.11
11. Kentucky 1.93
12. BYU 1.80
13. Duke 1.78
14. Michigan St 1.77
15. UNC 1.63
16. Creighton 1.60
17. Gonzaga 1.58
18. Colorado 1.57
19. TCU 1.56
20. Texas 1.54
21. Baylor 1.53
22. St Mary’s 1.39
23. Mississippi St 1.38
24. Virginia 1.35
25. FAU 1.34


Rest of SEC
28. Florida
45. Mississippi
70. LSU
71. South Carolina
89. ATM
94. Arkansas
97. Missouri
103. Georgia
202. Vandy

 

[StubbornPenny]

I’m gonna bet your model exclusively this tournament. Don’t let me down lol

 

[Aike]

I’m gonna bet your model exclusively this tournament. Don’t let me down lol

Haha it usually does pretty well, but we all know how random the tournament is.

My personal opinion is that a combo of my model and a few others + gut/eye test is best for people who know the game.

If you really follow you will know things about injuries, hot streaks, etc. that won’t necessarily show up in a full season model.

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

Do you have the ability to easily run same model for specified time periods? Like from beginning of February only for example? Or for last 10 games only? Something like that?

 

[StubbornPenny]

Haha it usually does pretty well, but we all know how random the tournament is.

My personal opinion is that a combo of my model and a few others + gut/eye test is best for people who know the game.

If you really follow you will know things about injuries, hot streaks, etc. that won’t necessarily show up in a full season model.

I think you should develop a baseball model too. I’m already very good at fantasy baseball, but a new metric that no one else has would be great.

 

[Aike]

I think you should develop a baseball model too. I’m already very good at fantasy baseball, but a new metric that no one else has would be great.

Something to keep in mind! I’ve tinkered with NBA and built a pretty good model but it can improve. Figured I’d tackle NFL next, but baseball would be fun too.

 

[StubbornPenny]

Something to keep in mind! I’ve tinkered with NBA and built a pretty good model but it can improve. Figured I’d tackle NFL next, but baseball would be fun too.

Baseball is great because of the extremely large sample size. I got a D in statistics lol.

 

[Aike]

Do you have the ability to easily run same model for specified time periods? Like from beginning of February only for example? Or for last 10 games only? Something like that?

It isn’t as easy as pushing a button, but I usually do it this time of year to see who is trending well.

I’ll probably run it for the last month of the season on the Monday after Selection Sunday.

 

[Aike]

FYI - this translates to UT being favored by 6 today.

 

[CatOfDaVille]

I think this backs up what we all know to be true...the SEC and Big12 are really tough conferences, and those teams will likely be best prepared for the NCAAT.

The ACC, on the other hand, is weak as hell. I look for neither Duke nor UNC to make the final four this year.

 

[Aike]

I think this backs up what we all know to be true...the SEC and Big12 are really tough conferences, and those teams will likely be best prepared for the NCAAT.

The ACC, on the other hand, is weak as hell. I look for neither Duke nor UNC to make the final four this year.

Duke has been improving, which makes me a little nervous. I agree that a Final Four is unlikely unless they get some favorable matchups/luck.

 

[kennyskywalker34]

Duke has been improving, which makes me a little nervous. I agree that a Final Four is unlikely unless they get some favorable matchups/luck.

Duke will win today. But they will likely matchup again next week in their conference tournament and Carolina probably wins. That's usually how that series goes.
That has nothing to do with which one goes farther in the ncaat though.
One thing for sure neither will have to leave the state for first 4 games. They rarely do.