Model Update - 2/18/24

[Aike]

1. Arizona 3.12
2. UCONN 3.04
3. Houston 2.80
4. Tennessee 2.75
5. Auburn 2.66 (down 2)
6. Iowa St. 2.49
7. Alabama 2.48
8. Purdue 2.32
9. Kansas 2.28
10. Marquette 1.98
11. Michigan St 1.97
12. BYU 1.81
13. Virginia 1.78
14. Kentucky 1.76
15. UNC 1.62
16. TCU 1.55
17. Colorado 1.494
18. Baylor 1.491 (up 3)
19. Duke 1.47
20. Gonzaga 1.4230 (up 3)
21. Creighton 1.4226 (up 7)
22. St Mary’s 1.418 (up 3)
23. FAU 1.40 (down 3)
24. Texas 1.39 (down 5)
25. Mississippi St 1.33 (down 3)


Rest of SEC
30. Florida (up 5)
33. Mississippi
63. LSU
80. South Carolina
81. ATM
90. Missouri
104. Arkansas
106. Georgia
195. Vandy

Great day for the Cats. Our score only improved slightly, but I wouldn’t read a lot into that. Auburn makes you play ugly and we won ugly while taking Auburn down a couple notches. I would be surprised if anyone else has gone into Auburn this year and improved their score.

Otherwise, Arizona, UCONN, Houston, and UT all looking stronger, but they also all got home games.

Definitely worth keeping an eye on is the continuing slight slide from Purdue. Is this just an effect of playing tough conference teams who know them better, or is there cause for concern?

Be interested to see how they handle their road game today, but as of now they profile more like the last 2 seed than the best overall team.

Baylor also continues to climb and look more and more dangerous, but some of that is an effect of brutal SOS in the Big 12.

 

[CapnBlubs]

I don't like Houston or Sampson one bit but if I had to choose a top contender that isn't us...well, that's probably who I would have to root for this year. Under NO circumstances can it be a team like UConn, KU, UNC, or Duke. Which means, given our recent luck, that will be the exact participants in the national semifinals. FML.

 

[Aike]

I don't like Houston or Sampson one bit but if I had to choose a top contender that isn't us...well, that's probably who I would have to root for this year. Under NO circumstances can it be a team like UConn, KU, UNC, or Duke. Which means, given our recent luck, that will be the exact participants in the national semifinals. FML.

UCONN is really really good.

I think Houston’s offense will eventually let them down, but they have more than a puncher’s chance.

Everyone is sleeping on Arizona, who I could see winning it all, or losing a shoot out in the second/third round.

Tennessee should be right there with those other three, but they are still Tennessee. I’ll believe it when I see it.

 

[CapnBlubs]

UCONN is really really good.

I think Houston’s offense will eventually let them down, but they have more than a puncher’s chance.

Everyone is sleeping on Arizona, who I could see winning it all, or losing a shoot out in the second/third round.

Tennessee should be right there with those other three, but they are still Tennessee. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Yeah if I were forced to bet it would be on a UConn repeat. And I hate typing that. So sick of them.

 

[nickhorvathsuxazz]

1. Arizona 3.12
2. UCONN 3.04
3. Houston 2.80
4. Tennessee 2.75
5. Auburn 2.66 (down 2)
6. Iowa St. 2.49
7. Alabama 2.48
8. Purdue 2.32
9. Kansas 2.28
10. Marquette 1.98
11. Michigan St 1.97
12. BYU 1.81
13. Virginia 1.78
14. Kentucky 1.76
15. UNC 1.62
16. TCU 1.55
17. Colorado 1.494
18. Baylor 1.491 (up 3)
19. Duke 1.47
20. Gonzaga 1.4230 (up 3)
21. Creighton 1.4226 (up 7)
22. St Mary’s 1.418 (up 3)
23. FAU 1.40 (down 3)
24. Texas 1.39 (down 5)
25. Mississippi St 1.33 (down 3)


Rest of SEC
30. Florida (up 5)
33. Mississippi
63. LSU
80. South Carolina
81. ATM
90. Missouri
104. Arkansas
106. Georgia
195. Vandy

Great day for the Cats. Our score only improved slightly, but I wouldn’t read a lot into that. Auburn makes you play ugly and we won ugly while taking Auburn down a couple notches. I would be surprised if anyone else has gone into Auburn this year and improved their score.

Otherwise, Arizona, UCONN, Houston, and UT all looking stronger, but they also all got home games.

Definitely worth keeping an eye on is the continuing slight slide from Purdue. Is this just an effect of playing tough conference teams who know them better, or is there cause for concern?

Be interested to see how they handle their road game today, but as of now they profile more like the last 2 seed than the best overall team.

Baylor also continues to climb and look more and more dangerous, but some of that is an effect of brutal SOS in the Big 12.

Do you remember what UK's high water mark for the season's been?

 

[Aike]

Do you remember what UK's high water mark for the season's been?

We were second overall after we beat Miami.

 

[Aike]

Maybe questioning Purdue was the right call. They will probably rate as a high 3 seed when I run this tomorrow.

 

[Emarc]

Once again.. The ratings ( AZ 3.12) mean what?

 

[ukfan1622]

Our conference must be tough since the model has 7 SEC teams in the top 33.

 

[Aike]

Our conference must be tough since the model has 7 SEC teams in the top 33.

Our conference is a beast.

 

[Aike]

Once again.. The ratings ( AZ 3.12) mean what?

Expected tournament wins from 0-6.

If you simulated the tournament a 1000 times, their average finish would be a little better then Elite Eight.

 

[CatOfDaVille]

Maybe questioning Purdue was the right call. They will probably rate as a high 3 seed when I run this tomorrow.

And yet they'll still be talked about as a lock for a 1 seed.

 

[Aike]

And yet they'll still be talked about as a lock for a 1 seed.

They have 9 Q1 wins. They will have to collapse to drop off the 1 line. I also think they are better than last year. But they could be in for a tough time, at least by the Sweet 16.

 

[BBUK]

1. Arizona 3.12
2. UCONN 3.04
3. Houston 2.80
4. Tennessee 2.75
5. Auburn 2.66 (down 2)
6. Iowa St. 2.49
7. Alabama 2.48
8. Purdue 2.32
9. Kansas 2.28
10. Marquette 1.98
11. Michigan St 1.97
12. BYU 1.81
13. Virginia 1.78
14. Kentucky 1.76
15. UNC 1.62
16. TCU 1.55
17. Colorado 1.494
18. Baylor 1.491 (up 3)
19. Duke 1.47
20. Gonzaga 1.4230 (up 3)
21. Creighton 1.4226 (up 7)
22. St Mary’s 1.418 (up 3)
23. FAU 1.40 (down 3)
24. Texas 1.39 (down 5)
25. Mississippi St 1.33 (down 3)


Rest of SEC
30. Florida (up 5)
33. Mississippi
63. LSU
80. South Carolina
81. ATM
90. Missouri
104. Arkansas
106. Georgia
195. Vandy

Great day for the Cats. Our score only improved slightly, but I wouldn’t read a lot into that. Auburn makes you play ugly and we won ugly while taking Auburn down a couple notches. I would be surprised if anyone else has gone into Auburn this year and improved their score.

Otherwise, Arizona, UCONN, Houston, and UT all looking stronger, but they also all got home games.

Definitely worth keeping an eye on is the continuing slight slide from Purdue. Is this just an effect of playing tough conference teams who know them better, or is there cause for concern?

Be interested to see how they handle their road game today, but as of now they profile more like the last 2 seed than the best overall team.

Baylor also continues to climb and look more and more dangerous, but some of that is an effect of brutal SOS in the Big 12.

Always enjoy your input. Thanks

 

[Aike]

Always enjoy your input. Thanks

Happy to share. Always more interesting this deep in the season as things are shaping up.

 

[CatOfDaVille]

They have 9 Q1 wins. They will have to collapse to drop off the 1 line. I also think they are better than last year. But they could be in for a tough time, at least by the Sweet 16.

Wow I didn't realize they had that many Q1 wins. That has to be the most of any team, right?

I still don't buy them as a true contender. I've seen several of their games, and I think they'll struggle again in the NCAAT.

 

[Aike]

Wow I didn't realize they had that many Q1 wins. That has to be the most of any team, right?

I still don't buy them as a true contender. I've seen several of their games, and I think they'll struggle again in the NCAAT.

They have been slipping. I wouldn’t count them out, but I wouldn’t make them a favorite either.

UCONN also 9 Q1 wins. I posted a thread a little while ago breaking this all down.

Here’s a link

 

[fatguy87]

Obviously UK is underrated and all of my least favorite teams are overrated by your model. Do better, Aike.

 

[Aike]

Obviously UK is underrated and all of my least favorite teams are overrated by your model. Do better, Aike.

I’ve got a lot of work to do. Using all the wrong metrics. Should probably just quit.

 

[ralphdaltonfan]

Aike, my good friend, will Memphis miss the NCAA's? I sure as hell hope so. Just watched the **** show they put on the court at SMU and was a team that had David Jones playing his ass off and a bunch of quitters. Quinerly leaving Bama has helped Bama if this is how he was going to play. Good lord. Crispin was the analyst for ESPN and Schiffrin was calling the game and both suggested he be benched for his body language and providing nothing on the court.

Also, as a bonus ?--please tell me the Big Ten will be limited to 5 teams max? That league is AWFUL. I like some players (Max Christie's little brother at Minnesota is a guy I'd tamper the **** out of and try and get if he doesn't go Pro and if he does, I'd take him 1st Round) You know with my detest for that conference I'd limit it to 4 teams but their teams are unwatchable or exciting and awful. Iowa makes Kentucky look like Houston defensively. Izzo's coaching malpractice in how he's utilized Xavier Booker is painful....and Maryland has 2 players--Young/Reese and their attendance looks like a scarcely attended Covid era game.

Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Northwestern would be in for me...after that....it's a stretch to find 1 more I think is legit, and two is BTN Al Jazeera like insanity. Type this knowing Izzo will be in and they'll talk of him as if he's going to win it all.

 

[Aike]

Aike, my good friend, will Memphis miss the NCAA's? I sure as hell hope so. Just watched the **** show they put on the court at SMU and was a team that had David Jones playing his ass off and a bunch of quitters. Quinerly leaving Bama has helped Bama if this is how he was going to play. Good lord. Crispin was the analyst for ESPN and Schiffrin was calling the game and both suggested he be benched for his body language and providing nothing on the court.

Also, as a bonus ?--please tell me the Big Ten will be limited to 5 teams max? That league is AWFUL. I like some players (Max Christie's little brother at Minnesota is a guy I'd tamper the **** out of and try and get if he doesn't go Pro and if he does, I'd take him 1st Round) You know with my detest for that conference I'd limit it to 4 teams but their teams are unwatchable or exciting and awful. Iowa makes Kentucky look like Houston defensively. Izzo's coaching malpractice in how he's utilized Xavier Booker is painful....and Maryland has 2 players--Young/Reese and their attendance looks like a scarcely attended Covid era game.

Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Northwestern would be in for me...after that....it's a stretch to find 1 more I think is legit, and two is BTN Al Jazeera like insanity. Type this knowing Izzo will be in and they'll talk of him as if he's going to win it all.

I just watched part of that game. Memphis was pathetic! I think SMU/USF is coming up next week, which could be a good one.

I think Memphis is out barring them doing some work.

Big 10 might get 5. Might get 6. Nebraska probably has some work to do to get in.

Hate to break it to you, but I expect MSU to be in decent shape. They are actually modeling better for me than they have in recent years. And of course Izzo is Izzo. I wouldn’t sleep on them.

There have been years where they didn’t even model well and still made runs. Maybe we’ll get lucky and it will go the other way this year and they’ll blow it in the first round.

I don’t think Iowa can make it though without a deep run, maybe winning their conference tournament. And I think they are way too soft for that, but we’ll see. They run good stuff and can outshoot anyone on a given night, but hard for me to see them stringing wins together.

 

[Fox2monk]

UCONN is really really good.

I think Houston’s offense will eventually let them down, but they have more than a puncher’s chance.

Everyone is sleeping on Arizona, who I could see winning it all, or losing a shoot out in the second/third round.

Tennessee should be right there with those other three, but they are still Tennessee. I’ll believe it when I see it.

I feel the same way, I can’t stand to see UCONN win again.. I’d love before the end of the year to see us rate in the 2.1+ range.

 

[Aike]

I feel the same way, I can’t stand to see UCONN win again.. I’d love before the end of the year to see us rate in the 2.1+ range.

I agree. All the champs have been 2+ going into the tournament since I started doing this. I doubt UCONN would have been in 2014, but this doesn’t go back that far.

 

[Titpwhami2014]

My argument against Purdue is — who is their second NBA player? Braden Smith and Loyer are nice college players but is either draftable at this point? Feel like most national championship teams have at least two guys who get drafted.

 

[WeWant9]

I’ve noticed Miss St has seemed to trend right around that 25 area. I think we take care of business at LSU and then Bama at Rupp, but that road game at Miss St gives me some concern.

Going by your metrics, how do you see the top 4 of the SEC finishing out?

 

[fatguy87]

Tennessee should be right there with those other three, but they are still Tennessee. I’ll believe it when I see it.

UT under Rick Barnes will have a handful of games where they are inept at putting the ball in the hoop. Knecht helps their offensive floor most certainly, but they've still had 3 games this year under .9 PPP, including a home game. A sub 40 eFG% clunker is always lurking for a Barnes coached team.

 

[Untouchables22]

I’ve noticed Miss St has seemed to trend right around that 25 area. I think we take care of business at LSU and then Bama at Rupp, but that road game at Miss St gives me some concern.

Going by your metrics, how do you see the top 4 of the SEC finishing out?

Bama scares the crap out of me matchup wise….Ole Miss and Auburn both had lots of good looks from 3 and just missed them. Our defense has gotten a lot better with ball-screen defense and a little better containing dribble penetration. BUT I think our Achilles heel is giving up quality looks from 3 and Bama is the best team in the country to exploit that. (The issue is our off ball defense is still really really bad. The freshmen don’t stay attached very well at all if their man doesn’t have the ball. And to get a good look from 3 you just need to make 2 easy passes and reverse the ball across the floor).

 

[Untouchables22]

1. Arizona 3.12
2. UCONN 3.04
3. Houston 2.80
4. Tennessee 2.75
5. Auburn 2.66 (down 2)
6. Iowa St. 2.49
7. Alabama 2.48
8. Purdue 2.32
9. Kansas 2.28
10. Marquette 1.98
11. Michigan St 1.97
12. BYU 1.81
13. Virginia 1.78
14. Kentucky 1.76
15. UNC 1.62
16. TCU 1.55
17. Colorado 1.494
18. Baylor 1.491 (up 3)
19. Duke 1.47
20. Gonzaga 1.4230 (up 3)
21. Creighton 1.4226 (up 7)
22. St Mary’s 1.418 (up 3)
23. FAU 1.40 (down 3)
24. Texas 1.39 (down 5)
25. Mississippi St 1.33 (down 3)


Rest of SEC
30. Florida (up 5)
33. Mississippi
63. LSU
80. South Carolina
81. ATM
90. Missouri
104. Arkansas
106. Georgia
195. Vandy

Great day for the Cats. Our score only improved slightly, but I wouldn’t read a lot into that. Auburn makes you play ugly and we won ugly while taking Auburn down a couple notches. I would be surprised if anyone else has gone into Auburn this year and improved their score.

Otherwise, Arizona, UCONN, Houston, and UT all looking stronger, but they also all got home games.

Definitely worth keeping an eye on is the continuing slight slide from Purdue. Is this just an effect of playing tough conference teams who know them better, or is there cause for concern?

Be interested to see how they handle their road game today, but as of now they profile more like the last 2 seed than the best overall team.

Baylor also continues to climb and look more and more dangerous, but some of that is an effect of brutal SOS in the Big 12.

Aike if you average all the individual scores from your model for all the teams in a conference together. What is the discrepancy between the Big 12 and SEC. I think those leagues have separated themselves and I think the Big 12 (by depth) is the best league. But I’m very curious how far behind the SEC is?

 

[Aike]

I’ve noticed Miss St has seemed to trend right around that 25 area. I think we take care of business at LSU and then Bama at Rupp, but that road game at Miss St gives me some concern.

Going by your metrics, how do you see the top 4 of the SEC finishing out?

OK - I calculated expected end of season win totals based on current ratings and remaining schedule:

1. Bama 13.99
2. UT 13.19
3. Auburn 12.70
4. Florida 11.90
5. Kentucky 11.83
6. USC 10.49
7. Ole Miss 9.64
8. Miss St 9.38
9. ATM 8.62


I would read that as we should roughly expect to go 4-2 the rest of the way, which puts us on the 4/5 seed border.

Go 5-1 and we might sneak up to a 3 seed, knocking on the door of 2.

Go 3-3 and we are likely a 5/6.

Win them all and we should be right there with Alabama.

 

[Aike]

Aike if you average all the individual scores from your model for all the teams in a conference together. What is the discrepancy between the Big 12 and SEC. I think those leagues have separated themselves and I think the Big 12 (by depth) is the best league. But I’m very curious how far behind the SEC is?

Average score:

Big 12 - 1.35
SEC - 1.14