Model Update - 3/3/24

[Aike]

After our offensive explosion/defensive diarrhea yesterday, we finished the day almost exactly where we started it.

Here’s the update as we head into the stretch run:

1. Arizona 3.02
2. Houston 2.93
3. UCONN 2.88
4. Auburn 2.77
5. Tennessee 2.71
6. Iowa St 2.37
7. Purdue 2.36
8. Alabama 2.28
9. Kansas 2.25
10. Marquette 2.15
11. Kentucky 1.93
12. BYU 1.85
13. Michigan St 1.82
14. Duke 1.74
15. UNC 1.62
16. Creighton 1.60
17. Colorado 1.59
18. Gonzaga 1.58
19. TCU 1.52
20. Baylor 1.51
21. Texas 1.50
22. Mississippi St 1.3883
23. St Mary’s 1.3876
24. Virginia 1.35
25. Iowa 1.33


Rest of SEC
28. Florida
43. Mississippi
66. LSU
71. South Carolina
88. ATM
94. Missouri
99. Arkansas
103. Georgia
198. Vanderbilt

 

[bluegoad72]

I do live your model. It won me a sh%* ton of money last year with UCONN. Looks pretty accurate to me, but I've seen a lot of Arizona games and I see them getting knocked out early. So up and down I feel like they don't have the it factor to win it all. Is there any specific metric from your model that has them up that high?

 

[Aike]

I do live your model. It won me a sh%* ton of money last year with UCONN. Looks pretty accurate to me, but I've seen a lot of Arizona games and I see them getting knocked out early. So up and down I feel like they don't have the it factor to win it all. Is there any specific metric from your model that has them up that high?

They both score and rebound very well, which covers up a lot of mistakes. Also point out that they have two key contributors with Final Four experience.

I completely agree that they are a high ceiling/low floor team who is susceptible to a second or third round knockout. It’s a brutal tournament.

 

[leverage7]

After our offensive explosion/defensive diarrhea yesterday, we finished the day almost exactly where we started it.

Here’s the update as we head into the stretch run:

1. Arizona 3.02
2. Houston 2.93
3. UCONN 2.88
4. Auburn 2.77
5. Tennessee 2.71
6. Iowa St 2.37
7. Purdue 2.36
8. Alabama 2.28
9. Kansas 2.25
10. Marquette 2.15
11. Kentucky 1.93
12. BYU 1.85
13. Michigan St 1.82
14. Duke 1.74
15. UNC 1.62
16. Creighton 1.60
17. Colorado 1.59
18. Gonzaga 1.58
19. TCU 1.52
20. Baylor 1.51
21. Texas 1.50
22. Mississippi St 1.3883
23. St Mary’s 1.3876
24. Virginia 1.35
25. Iowa 1.33


Rest of SEC
28. Florida
43. Mississippi
66. LSU
71. South Carolina
88. ATM
94. Missouri
99. Arkansas
103. Georgia
198. Vanderbilt

Iowa St is criminally overrated, but I get it.

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

And somehow Michigan State stays up there….

 

[Aike]

And somehow Michigan State stays up there….

What do you expect? They go on the road to Purdue and lose by 6. Shouldn’t have moved them much.

 

[Aike]

Iowa St is criminally overrated, but I get it.

They have a nasty defense. I would love to play them though.

 

[lpkilla7]

Kentucky and Alabama play the NBA game. Everything is skewed with them and the stats. That game yesterday with Arkansas looked like NBA basketball.
We shall see if the NBA style can win in a tournament setting. Hasnt for Alabama yet..but Kentucky is using NBA players to run theirs.
We shall see.
Nobody has ever tried what Kentucky is going to try. Run and gun offense with a chancy block and steals only man defense.

 

[Aike]

Kentucky and Alabama play the NBA game. Everything is skewed with them and the stats. That game yesterday with Arkansas looked like NBA basketball.
We shall see if the NBA style can win in a tournament setting. Hasnt for Alabama yet..but Kentucky is using NBA players to run theirs.
We shall see.

This is analyzed by possession so it isn’t really skewed. MOV isn’t a factor.

 

[lpkilla7]

Can all those teams score 100?
Kentucky going try them I guess.

 

[Titpwhami2014]

Looked at KenPom this morning. As of today, UK has a nearly identical profile as last year’s Miami Final 4 team. UK current sitting as #7 offense and #98 defense. Miami was #6 and #99. UK has a better offensive profile and Miami’s defensive efficiency is slightly better.

 

[Aike]

Looked at KenPom this morning. As of today, UK has a nearly identical profile as last year’s Miami Final 4 team. UK current sitting as #7 offense and #98 defense. Miami was #6 and #99. UK has a better offensive profile and Miami’s defensive efficiency is slightly better.

That’s interesting. I’ve kind of thought of this UK team in regards to last year’s Miami team all season. Guards who can spread you out and can’t really be stopped.

 

[bbncal02]

Wild that FOUR SEC teams are in the T15. And three in the T10.

The league has been brutal. Might be the toughest conference in America.

 

[Aike]

Wild that FOUR SEC teams are in the T15. And three in the T10.

The league has been brutal. Might be the toughest conference in America.

I would go Big 12 then SEC.

 

[leverage7]

They have a nasty defense. I would love to play them though.

Fair enough, I would too. Still not sure why UNC is even being considered for a 1. Eye test shows ACC is absolute garbage this year compared to previous.

 

[leverage7]

I would go Big 12 then SEC.

SEC is better this year.

 

[Montana81]

Am I crazy for not trusting Auburn’s back court? None of Donaldson, Holloway, Johnson or Jones are scaring anybody imo. They’re all role players.

 

[Monk2Fox]

I think its fair to say Cal has it all figured out. It's going to change. If his Ugo team can score and do well, they will get those mins. Much better defense over offensive. So our defensive numbers are not really relevant. If its big z team scoring at will, he's playing. Way better offense over a horrible defense. If this team needed better defensive numbers the Ugo team is actually defending very well. Like top 15 nationally. So, see how the game goes and make those calls. Iowa for example doesn't have that luxury neither does Alabama. Why I see Arizona as my favorite to win it all.

 

[gharding07]

Am I crazy for not trusting Auburn’s back court? None of Donaldson, Holloway, Johnson or Jones are scaring anybody imo. They’re all role players.

They have one quad 1 win. Enough said.

 

[Midway Cat]

Nobody has ever tried what Kentucky is going to try. Run and gun offense with a chancy block and steals only man defense.

It's not a great comparison given how much the game has changed, the difference in talent, etc., but the end of the Rupp's tenure (1967-1972) was somewhat similar. Lots and lots of scoring. Defense was more optional.

He had some great seasons in that time period, but Rupp never made it back to the Final Four after losing in the title game in 1966.

 

[UKUGA]

After our offensive explosion/defensive diarrhea yesterday, we finished the day almost exactly where we started it.

Here’s the update as we head into the stretch run:

1. Arizona 3.02
2. Houston 2.93
3. UCONN 2.88
4. Auburn 2.77
5. Tennessee 2.71
6. Iowa St 2.37
7. Purdue 2.36
8. Alabama 2.28
9. Kansas 2.25
10. Marquette 2.15
11. Kentucky 1.93
12. BYU 1.85
13. Michigan St 1.82
14. Duke 1.74
15. UNC 1.62
16. Creighton 1.60
17. Colorado 1.59
18. Gonzaga 1.58
19. TCU 1.52
20. Baylor 1.51
21. Texas 1.50
22. Mississippi St 1.3883
23. St Mary’s 1.3876
24. Virginia 1.35
25. Iowa 1.33


Rest of SEC
28. Florida
43. Mississippi
66. LSU
71. South Carolina
88. ATM
94. Missouri
99. Arkansas
103. Georgia
198. Vanderbilt

You need to work your niece’s team into there. 🏀