Miss St favored by 2.5 per FanDuel
- Thread starter HalHR2500
- Start date
Depends which team shows up, hopefully the one that played Alabama and not the one that played LSU
That's too be expected. We are 17th in Kenpom and they are 28th. We'd be favored at Rupp by 8.5, 3 pts on a neutral floor and +2.5 in Starkville. Nothing interesting about the line, bettors I'm sure will bet it down to +1 or a pickem by tip off.
Mississippi State beat Tennessee and Auburn at home. Cats will have their hands full.
I said this in another post as well. I love this game. State is decent at home but have lost 2 home games, they have an OK record in some ways similar to ours, and will get some home court whistles playing more physically. They are likely to match the type of early round teams we would face in the NCAA.
Now, we get to see what the reality of our team is after that phenomenal home performance against Bama. Was it one game, has Kentucky now figured it out, can we win despite Cal or will he insist on the wrong combinations and playing some too long, etc.?
Now, we get to see what the reality of our team is after that phenomenal home performance against Bama. Was it one game, has Kentucky now figured it out, can we win despite Cal or will he insist on the wrong combinations and playing some too long, etc.?
I predicted Miss State would be favored by 2 pts........missed it by that much
I thought Bama opened as 2 point favorite somewhere and got bet to Kentucky being favored. Same thing might happen here but I don't think I want to be favored. Rather Cats play with a chip on their shoulder.
It's more about Miss St being better than I think most feel here and the fact they are the home team.
I'm probably the only person on the planet that plays Washington Capitals/UK basketball parlays. Capitals tonight on the puck line and UK tomorrow on the moneyline.
Depends if the refs let MSU get away with clutching, grabbing, and setting moving screens… AKA SEC Basketball.
Kentucky should win this game. Inconsistency is only reason they aren’t favored. A bet for UK is a bet they’ve turned a corner on consistency
If we can slow Hubbard again we should be OK. Hope JVC will play the squad that is dangerous at 5 spots.
Yes, it's been that way all year. Home court is 4.5-6 points no matter who you are playing. Not sure why it doesn't make sense.
15-20 years ago it was closer to 3-5 pts. It's increased a small amount over the years to 4.5-6. Thatsbwhy when fans complain about our Road lines it blows my mind they aren't aware of that. 10-11 point swing between a Home line for a game and an away game.
Pretty much anytime we start feeling confident, the Cats drop a game.
It would be nice to finally see these kids turn the corner for once.
It would be nice to finally see these kids turn the corner for once.
Well MSU's defense is a WHOLE LOT different than Bama's. So even if we show up offensively, I'd not expect 90+ points. So that means we'll need the Auburn and first half Bama defense.
Home court is 3 points.
So if they are favored at home vs us by 2, we'd be favored on a neutral court by 1 and at home we'd be a 4 pt favorite.
Given the fact that on Kenpom our efficiency margin is 20.65 (17th ranked) and there's is 18.16 (28th), this makes perfect sense.
Neutral court 20.65 - 18.16 = 2.49 times avg game of 68 possessions = 1.69...........close enough
FWIW when we played them early this season it also kinda ties in as we were a 5 point favorite at home that night.
Do a quick Google search. It isn't 3 points anymore. I run my own simulator, kenpom does them and so do other sites. It's 4-6 all year long.
NCAA Basketball Home Court Advantage: Best Statistics & Records
See how much of an advantage each college basketball team has on their home floor. This is important when predicting who is going to win and lose.
Betting College Basketball – The Value of Home Court Advantage - GameAdvisers
Betting college basketball - the value of home court advantage explains what bettors can look for to determine if such an advantage exists.
www.gameadvisers.com
Continue to argue all you want but if you actually keep track of it it's literally never 3 anymore. It was 15 years ago, not anymore. Carry on.
I don't believe it's a straight 3 points across the board for every team. I believe teams like say Kansas or Uconn have a bigger home court advantage than say Vanderbilt. And every sports gambling book or article I have read about the subject says the same thing. It's not 3 or 4 or 6 across the board. It's different for different teams.
NCAA Basketball Home Court Advantage: Best Statistics & Records
See how much of an advantage each college basketball team has on their home floor. This is important when predicting who is going to win and lose.
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Tolu Smith is a 56% FT shooter. Don't give him any easy buckets and Hubbard shoots 35% from 3 and is their second best 3 pt shooter.
Play good D and we got this.
Play good D and we got this.
This is exactly right. It differs but it is rarely if ever 3 anymore.
Do a quick Google search. It isn't 3 points anymore. I run my own simulator, kenpom does them and so do other sites. It's 4-6 all year long.
NCAA Basketball Home Court Advantage: Best Statistics & Records
See how much of an advantage each college basketball team has on their home floor. This is important when predicting who is going to win and lose.www.boydsbets.com
Betting College Basketball – The Value of Home Court Advantage - GameAdvisers
Betting college basketball - the value of home court advantage explains what bettors can look for to determine if such an advantage exists.
Continue to argue all you want but if you actually keep track of it it's literally never 3 anymore. It was 15 years ago, not anymore. Carry on.
It's certainly still three points on Kenpom and he matches fairly consistently with Vegas.
All one has to do is look at the teams that UK plays twice (home/away) to see that split.
We are currently an 8 point underdog vs UT meaning we would have been a 2 point underdog vs UT at home. Sure enough the predicted score of that game was UT 80 UK 78.
I don't believe it's a straight 3 points across the board for every team. I believe teams like say Kansas or Uconn have a bigger home court advantage than say Vanderbilt. And every sports gambling book or article I have read about the subject says the same thing. It's not 3 or 4 or 6 across the board. It's different for different teams.
NCAA Basketball Home Court Advantage: Best Statistics & Records
See how much of an advantage each college basketball team has on their home floor. This is important when predicting who is going to win and lose.
This is true but there's not some drastic difference between the teams. The large majority of teams hover in that 2-4 point range.
If I look at the Home Court Ratings on KP only 12 teams are above 4.0. Only 13 teams are below 2.0. The other 337 teams are within 2-4.
The worst is Fairleigh Dickinson at .32 and the highest is Denver at 7.03.
I'm sure the numbers may vary a little depending on which site you look at.
I'm sure the numbers may vary a little depending on which site you look at.
At LSU the Tigers got 25 FTAs while we got 12. I'm expecting something as lopsided as this tomorrow night. 😐
Yeah that seems massively high and low lol.
But yeah I'd imagine different sites vary.
It would be interesting now to 1) look on KP and see what Denver is and 2) how well Denver's line match up with Vegas.
It's more about the ratings. Kentucky is about 2.5 better than Miss State on kenpom then you add in about 4.5 for home court is how I had it Miss State by 2.
I know there is a way to look at kenpom and figure out how much your predicted to win or lose by but I don't have that. I think you have to pay for that feature.
The road whistle accounts for maybe 6 pts for UK opponents (Screwing Cal is their ultimate joy) maybe 8-10 pts if they decide to stick Reeves with 2 phantom first half fouls, UK will have to be 10 points better to win this game
Yeah right now Miss St 79 UK 77.
It's interesting that although we are favored in two of the four remaining games, KP actually predicts 3-1. I guess it's because the two favorites are like near certain wins with them being bad teams and us playing at Rupp. I guess he figures we'll win one of the 50/50 games between Miss St and/or UT. UT isn't really 50/50 so we might wanna grab this one lol
Don't see how. We have the 5 stars and HOF coach. They don't. Banking on getting out coached or out worked? Or maybe getting help from the refs? Why are they favored?
Yeah how many drift picks they have ? A team full ? whatever . I'll root but I lost trust in Cal years ago
Load up on the UK moneyline before a bunch of money starts coming in on the Cats.
We're winning tomorrow night.
We're winning tomorrow night.
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