Ok, so what you're saying is that none of us has any idea what tonight's outcome will be.
Maybe apply that to yourself.
Miss St favored by 2.5 per FanDuel
- Thread starter HalHR2500
- Start date
Maybe apply that to yourself.
You’re right I have no clue. Our team is unpredictable. I’m not pretending to know whether we win or lose but the game is going to be in a worse environment than the lsu game against a team that we don’t match well with. I don’t trust our coach.
ESPN had their line at U.K. + 4.5 at about 5:45 p.m., EST, tonight. I don't know where ESPN gets their betting info, but I'd say that all that heavy money means that Vegas expects Rockfight Cal to be running the show tonight ! No 100-point game tonight !
Going back to the whole home court thing and what it’s worth the avg home winning percentage this season is about 59% in conference games.
If you go on Kenpom, any prediction where the spread is exactly 3 points = 60%.
The site with Denver showing a difference of like 7 is completely inaccurate. All that is doing is comparing mov home and away. That’s not how to do this for several reasons. For starters the quality of opponent you play at home is easier than the quality of opponent on the road.
Consider UK. In conference it’s fairly level (which is why KP uses conference games only). But our non conference all cupcakes we play is at home. That skews the results.
I like what KP does. It breaks it down by various categories. Foul difference is the main driving factor with this. Tho with the way replays have factored in this has actually diminished recently. Some teams get benefit by playing in crazy high elevation locations.
2-4 is probably a reasonable estimate of where we are at.
Key point
On the season, home teams have won 59.4% of conference games, which is actually slightly downfrom last season’s 59.9%:
More strikingly, the average margin of victory for home teams in conference games has been 2.78 points. The only seasons with a lower value are 2021 (the pandemic season), and 2022 (pandemic hangover?).
If you go on Kenpom, any prediction where the spread is exactly 3 points = 60%.
The site with Denver showing a difference of like 7 is completely inaccurate. All that is doing is comparing mov home and away. That’s not how to do this for several reasons. For starters the quality of opponent you play at home is easier than the quality of opponent on the road.
Consider UK. In conference it’s fairly level (which is why KP uses conference games only). But our non conference all cupcakes we play is at home. That skews the results.
I like what KP does. It breaks it down by various categories. Foul difference is the main driving factor with this. Tho with the way replays have factored in this has actually diminished recently. Some teams get benefit by playing in crazy high elevation locations.
2-4 is probably a reasonable estimate of where we are at.
Key point
On the season, home teams have won 59.4% of conference games, which is actually slightly downfrom last season’s 59.9%:
More strikingly, the average margin of victory for home teams in conference games has been 2.78 points. The only seasons with a lower value are 2021 (the pandemic season), and 2022 (pandemic hangover?).
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