Latest Model Update…
- Thread starter Aike
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I like UK at #23 (for the moment) and Bama is way too low at #16 as I believe they are #1.
Good work Aike.
Good work Aike.
Got to remember Bama getting shelled by 24 at 12-9 Oklahoma a week ago. Bama is definitely a good team, but maybe a bit more flawed than some of the other models recognize.
Aike uses data. Your "belief" is based on what again? That Taco Bell dinner?
Lots of people use data incorrectly. Bama is much better than 16. You don't need to be Ken Pomroy to acknowledge that.
They'll shoot themselves out of a big game when it matters most.
Who isn’t, though? Every team this year has bad losses. Bama is a top 5 team based on any metric, and probably even higher
Not by my metric, which is specific to the NCAA Tournament. Does my metric have to be wrong if it doesn’t agree with all others?
It isn’t a ranking. It isn’t saying they’ve had the 16th best season. It’s predicting how they will do in the tournament based on how they play and how teams who play like them have done in the past.
There’s nothing “incorrect” about my data usage. This is as mathematically sound as any other model you’ll find. Would be kind of boring if they all agreed across the board. Wouldn’t really need more than one model if that were the case.
No. I like your metric. My opinion is that they have solidified theirselves, and statistics point them to undeniably be in an elite category. One of the few teams to have done that
I know Tennessee defense is really good, but they are bad offensively and combine a bad offense with Barnes and I just can’t see them making a run
But not all statistics…that’s kind of my point. My model uses statistics too. Not everyone is looking at exactly the same things, so not everyone comes up with exactly the same answers.
Most models are trying to determine who is the best team. Mine is trying to determine who will play best in the tournament. These are similar but not exactly the same.
I think they are ripe for the picking, honestly. They’ve slipped these past few weeks.
On Bama…they are still in line for a 1 seed. So they will almost definitely be favorites the first 2 games and maybe the 3rd. Maybe a coin flip in that Sweet 16 game.
So even though they don’t model great, they should still be in line for an Elite Eight run because they’ve performed well against their schedule. They’ve earned their way up the latter.
So even though they don’t model great, they should still be in line for an Elite Eight run because they’ve performed well against their schedule. They’ve earned their way up the latter.
I watch them a lot and their offense looks worse every time, you take away vescovi and they really struggle
They’ve dropped from 3.57 to 2.83 in a month.
This is shaping up to be quite a tournament with so much weakness up top.
Have finally put him on ignore a feature I rarely ever ever use. Just can’t take his post any longer and his over the top statements on every subject matter. Not to mention his 6-8 new threads started daily which are also always over the top. Also fairly certain he’s not even a UK fan, just an over the top poser which I certainly don’t understand the point.
Totally get it but 16 considering who they've beat and how bad they've massacred some decent and bad teams? Again, there may be nothing wrong with your mathematics but it looks like you are focusing on the wrong metrics.
It’s going to be a crazy conference tournament week and ncaa tourney, there isn’t one team that I fully trust, everybody has weaknesses, which will make the tournament more fun
No problem. Sometimes folks get too invested in their product and miss the captain obvious stuff.
You really are that guy, aren’t you? Been doing this for 5 years. Holds up very well. Nothing is perfect but I’ll take it over your random internet opinion 7 days out of 7.
So you're saying the model says there are 15 teams who would finish ahead of Bama if the tournament was held today (including dogshit Arkansas) and I should mindlessly agree because you've been doing it for 5 years? Doesnt matter what common sense says - the aike data model has spoken. Talk about being that guy.
Pro tip, if your desire is to not be questioned, a message board is the wrong place to flex.
Actually isn’t what I’m saying. Sorry you don’t understand. I don’t need tips or anything else from you.
And I don’t care if you agree or not. But the whole “you’re looking at the wrong metrics” is you just being a jerk. If you really don’t understand that then I can’t help you. Either way, you’re no one that want to have a conversation with.
Honestly guys, I’m out of posting this. Probably for good. 5 years of trolls taking shots at me isn’t as much fun as you might think. Thanks for the support through the years. It has honestly meant a lot to me.
does this.mean Bama gets beat in the sweet 16 and UK loses 2nd round?
If you're not saying 15 other teams would beat Bama in the tournament and instead 15 teams have had better seasons, how does that predict tournament success? Also, do you think any sane person who has watched college basketball this year would agree that Arkansas has had a better season thus far?
Look, I'd get some captain obvious misses if this were November. It takes time to model and trend accordingly. But we are mid-conference slate. Arkansas and 14 other teams ahead of Bama???
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I’m waiting for Crums model. I think this may be a really hard year to fill out a bracket
I let the folks who are good at pulling/quantifying data do their thing and build the models. I come in to read the results and make informed business decisions. Been pretty successful.
Part of making good decisions is spotting things that make zero sense. Like Bama at 16 and Arkansas at 15.
Takes a village.
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