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J. Clay (Lex Herald) predictions

JST390-2

Junior
Nov 1, 2015
2,204
3,858
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Florida
Oscar Tshiebwe, Antonio Reeves and Chris Livingston have decisions to make. If all three return, or even if two of the three return, the Cats could be flying high next season. If all three depart, however, commence scramble mode.

My guess is Livingston stays in the draft. There has been little buzz about the sophomore-to-be returning to Lexington. He had a good but not great freshman season when he averaged 6.3 points and 4.2 rebounds per game. He’s a developing talent. He might wish to develop at the next level, even if that means the NBA G League.


Reeves is trickier to predict. The transfer from Illinois State was UK’s second-leading scorer at 14.4 points per game last season. He was not invited to the NBA Draft Combine, leading to speculation he might pull out of the draft. Since then, however, rumors have popped up that Reeves might finish degree this summer and play elsewhere as a graduate transfer. In the end, I’m guessing Reeves returns.

Last but not least, my prediction is Tshiebwe remains in the draft. His NBA Draft Combine performance gave hope he could be selected come June 22 in Brooklyn. And other than more NIL money, Oscar might also believe he has nothing left to prove by returning to the college game. To expand his game, he needs to play against professional competition.

For the sake of argument, let’s say the trio has played its final games in a Kentucky uniform. If so, Calipari has to take a deep dive into what’s left in the transfer portal.

Aside from that two-platoon team that went 38-1 in 2014-15, Calipari hasn’t been a 10-player coach. He likes to reduce his rotation to seven or eight dependable players by tournament time. Injuries to Sahvir Wheeler and CJ Fredrick caused Cal to alter that scenario last season, but only seven players ended up averaging double figures in minutes.

Still, even by Cal’s standards, seven scholarship players is an impossibly thin roster. No way that holds up over a long season. And the Cats’ trip to Canada to represent Team USA in the 2023 GLOBL JAM begins July 12. That’s a little over six weeks away.

Maybe I’m wrong. (As usual.) Maybe Tshiebwe, Reeves and Livingston all return and Calipari has a loaded roster for a potential Final Four run. Maybe two of the three return — any two — bringing needed experience for a very green team, even by Calipari’s standards.

If not, there will be plenty of last-minute scrambling in the offices at the Joe Craft Center.
 
Oscar should go Pro. Know it's not what many want to hear but do think majority of BBN understand his situation. Specifically age wise being added to equation. Every update on him where he's quoted backs up what I was told prior to the season about him wanting to leave CBB and attempt a Pro career.

The other 2 are where UK fans should be seriously asking WTF is going on and all I can say is that I was told about Livingston mid season so this isn't surprising. If Oscar did leave, I do think there's a window he'd return as he'd see minutes/playing time available he wouldn't if he does return. Reeves in negotiations is embarrassing for the program. It's absurd in all honesty.

Fact that Calipari has allowed this trio to hold out until the final days of the process is horrible program management.

Still need to get 2 staff spots filled as well. Video Guy and KT Turner's spot.
 
I’ve been hesitant to pile on as a general rule, but I gotta admit something seems broken at this point. Things could change and undoubtedly there is a lot of info we and even the media aren’t privy to about where we stand with guys.

But, it just seems off. Hard for anyone to make the case that isn’t true at this point. Hope it changes soon. I can’t take another subpar mediocre season.
 
I’ve been hesitant to pile on as a general rule, but I gotta admit something seems broken at this point. Things could change and undoubtedly there is a lot of info we and even the media aren’t privy to about where we stand with guys.

But, it just seems off. Hard for anyone to make the case that isn’t true at this point. Hope it changes soon. I can’t take another subpar mediocre season.
Very well written/said. Think it's universal in the fans being unhappy about the deadline urgency. You've had since after the season to finish the process of filling out the '24 roster. Now players say things and you trust them and that can change, etc....but the mode of operation has to change so you aren't up against it. Now it's all about "hoping" that things turn out. Hope/hoping isn't a plan.

When everyone who isn't on the inside is all saying the same thing about a program, that speaks loudly. This isn't some overreaction from the fanbase. It's not a pot shot from national or local media guys who like to pile on and often unfairly. This is everyone asking "WTF are they doing"? Keshod Johnson had committed to Kentucky on his OV and in his scenario, that should've been announced immediately. It should've been "Great--go public with it" but they wanted to let him go home and let things play out and then it changed.

Kentucky used to work in silence and that's a great way to operate. However they'd also operate in a manner that things were aligned to just add on with some players instead of needing to fill out a roster. So the "hope" has to come through or it's going to be a very fascinating '24 season.

If there are fans desperate for good news, the recruiting in '24/'25 is very strong with elite guys. '25 class is a lot like '16 class was nationally. You will have to mess up to not get a great class of players. May even be smart to take a reclass guy or 2 so you can get as many from that class as possible, But UK is in strong position with many players. There's your good news. Thing is...you have a chance to have a vastly improved team in '24 if you can fill 3 spots. We'd all prefer more but get to 10 and you'll be good. We're all waiting and hoping for the best but this can't be the approach moving forward and thankfully the talent increase of the guys who are on the '24 team will mean they aren't going to be wishy washy or testing things-they'll be gone. So you can operate accordingly.
 
Very well written/said. Think it's universal in the fans being unhappy about the deadline urgency. You've had since after the season to finish the process of filling out the '24 roster. Now players say things and you trust them and that can change, etc....but the mode of operation has to change so you aren't up against it. Now it's all about "hoping" that things turn out. Hope/hoping isn't a plan.

When everyone who isn't on the inside is all saying the same thing about a program, that speaks loudly. This isn't some overreaction from the fanbase. It's not a pot shot from national or local media guys who like to pile on and often unfairly. This is everyone asking "WTF are they doing"? Keshod Johnson had committed to Kentucky on his OV and in his scenario, that should've been announced immediately. It should've been "Great--go public with it" but they wanted to let him go home and let things play out and then it changed.

Kentucky used to work in silence and that's a great way to operate. However they'd also operate in a manner that things were aligned to just add on with some players instead of needing to fill out a roster. So the "hope" has to come through or it's going to be a very fascinating '24 season.

If there are fans desperate for good news, the recruiting in '24/'25 is very strong with elite guys. '25 class is a lot like '16 class was nationally. You will have to mess up to not get a great class of players. May even be smart to take a reclass guy or 2 so you can get as many from that class as possible, But UK is in strong position with many players. There's your good news. Thing is...you have a chance to have a vastly improved team in '24 if you can fill 3 spots. We'd all prefer more but get to 10 and you'll be good. We're all waiting and hoping for the best but this can't be the approach moving forward and thankfully the talent increase of the guys who are on the '24 team will mean they aren't going to be wishy washy or testing things-they'll be gone. So you can operate accordingly.
Hey Ralph great info on Keshad and that would be confirmation of the less directly worded tweets from MeManBoy and Trilly after the visit. Do you think that was as simple as NIL guarantees at Arizona? I’m guessing money was a factor for the guy wearing a chain with “Showtime” on it laced in dollar bills at his announcement party.
 
However the recruiting turns out it still will be a bad look on Cal. If he is betting all 3 coming back and he is right it still will reflect bad on him, that he would be willing to take that chance with UK basketball's future. If they all go and he is hustling around for bodies to fill out a team that is sure a bad image. Only a coach who knows it will not affect him in his position would take the route he has taken. Maybe there is a situation we as fans don't know about. If so then I apologize.
 
Very well written/said. Think it's universal in the fans being unhappy about the deadline urgency. You've had since after the season to finish the process of filling out the '24 roster. Now players say things and you trust them and that can change, etc....but the mode of operation has to change so you aren't up against it. Now it's all about "hoping" that things turn out. Hope/hoping isn't a plan.

When everyone who isn't on the inside is all saying the same thing about a program, that speaks loudly. This isn't some overreaction from the fanbase. It's not a pot shot from national or local media guys who like to pile on and often unfairly. This is everyone asking "WTF are they doing"? Keshod Johnson had committed to Kentucky on his OV and in his scenario, that should've been announced immediately. It should've been "Great--go public with it" but they wanted to let him go home and let things play out and then it changed.

Kentucky used to work in silence and that's a great way to operate. However they'd also operate in a manner that things were aligned to just add on with some players instead of needing to fill out a roster. So the "hope" has to come through or it's going to be a very fascinating '24 season.

If there are fans desperate for good news, the recruiting in '24/'25 is very strong with elite guys. '25 class is a lot like '16 class was nationally. You will have to mess up to not get a great class of players. May even be smart to take a reclass guy or 2 so you can get as many from that class as possible, But UK is in strong position with many players. There's your good news. Thing is...you have a chance to have a vastly improved team in '24 if you can fill 3 spots. We'd all prefer more but get to 10 and you'll be good. We're all waiting and hoping for the best but this can't be the approach moving forward and thankfully the talent increase of the guys who are on the '24 team will mean they aren't going to be wishy washy or testing things-they'll be gone. So you can operate accordingly.
If that is true about Keshad Johnson then Calipari is far more negligent than I’ve been giving him credit for. It would be bad under normal circumstances, but, when you have 7 scholarship players in late May & the vast majority of top transfers are already off the table, it’s inexcusable to not immediately take an impact player, at a position of need, who is ready to commit. I can’t even begin to wrap my head around the thought process, there. Absolutely infuriating.
 
Hey Ralph great info on Keshad and that would be confirmation of the less directly worded tweets from MeManBoy and Trilly after the visit. Do you think that was as simple as NIL guarantees at Arizona? I’m guessing money was a factor for the guy wearing a chain with “Showtime” on it laced in dollar bills at his announcement party.
Not sure what that issue was. I don't think Johnson played for the Oakland Soldiers but one thing I do know is that Arizona got whomever they wanted from that program for years--Aaron Gordon, Stanley Johnson, etc...and Oakland has been very UofA friendly. Know that everyone thought Keshod was UK bound after the OV.

Maybe something fell through for Arizona and they had more of a need for an increased role/minutes for him? I'm not personally privy to what is going on but just sharing what I was told after the OV.
 
If that is true about Keshad Johnson then Calipari is far more negligent than I’ve been giving him credit for. It would be bad under normal circumstances, but, when you have 7 scholarship players in late May & the vast majority of top transfers are already off the table, it’s inexcusable to not immediately take an impact player, at a position of need, who is ready to commit. I can’t even begin to wrap my head around the thought process, there. Absolutely infuriating.
They did take him--but they allowed him to delay announcing. I think in today's world of recruiting, if someone commits, specifically in the Portal-encourage a public announcement ASAP but that's how I think. I don't fault Kentucky for taking a person at their word but a week is a longtime specifically when the player is from opposite coast.

Also and this is my own take, I'd never recruit CA again if I were Kentucky as long as Calipari is the HC. It's been a mess.
 
Cow you only got 7 players! Cow, "I forgot, did you know the final episode of Little House on the Prairie they destroy the town?"

Dummy Feeling Dumb GIF
 
Oscar should go Pro. Know it's not what many want to hear but do think majority of BBN understand his situation. Specifically age wise being added to equation. Every update on him where he's quoted backs up what I was told prior to the season about him wanting to leave CBB and attempt a Pro career.

The other 2 are where UK fans should be seriously asking WTF is going on and all I can say is that I was told about Livingston mid season so this isn't surprising. If Oscar did leave, I do think there's a window he'd return as he'd see minutes/playing time available he wouldn't if he does return. Reeves in negotiations is embarrassing for the program. It's absurd in all honesty.

Fact that Calipari has allowed this trio to hold out until the final days of the process is horrible program management.

Still need to get 2 staff spots filled as well. Video Guy and KT Turner's spot.
Livingston almost never played CBB
it would surprise me if he played CBB next year

Oscar should go pro (i would love for him to come back)

Reeves should come back
as for him shopping himself around i think almost every player is doing that
the only difference is they are in the portal and not holding a school up (if the rumors are true)
 
I’ve been hesitant to pile on as a general rule, but I gotta admit something seems broken at this point. Things could change and undoubtedly there is a lot of info we and even the media aren’t privy to about where we stand with guys.

But, it just seems off. Hard for anyone to make the case that isn’t true at this point. Hope it changes soon. I can’t take another subpar mediocre season.
You don't say. What do you think the issues are? Saying that something seems off doesn't really say anything, I know you have an opinion :D
 
Oscar should go Pro. Know it's not what many want to hear but do think majority of BBN understand his situation. Specifically age wise being added to equation. Every update on him where he's quoted backs up what I was told prior to the season about him wanting to leave CBB and attempt a Pro career.

The other 2 are where UK fans should be seriously asking WTF is going on and all I can say is that I was told about Livingston mid season so this isn't surprising. If Oscar did leave, I do think there's a window he'd return as he'd see minutes/playing time available he wouldn't if he does return. Reeves in negotiations is embarrassing for the program. It's absurd in all honesty.

Fact that Calipari has allowed this trio to hold out until the final days of the process is horrible program management.

Still need to get 2 staff spots filled as well. Video Guy and KT Turner's spot.
Yeah, Ortelli and Beisner need replaced within the staff. (Actually 2 intregal positions moving forward)
I assume Welch will fill the void left by KT Turner.
Bottom line, there's work to be done to complete both the staff and roster. Not a great look when you have games scheduled in about 6 weeks.
 
Very well written/said. Think it's universal in the fans being unhappy about the deadline urgency. You've had since after the season to finish the process of filling out the '24 roster. Now players say things and you trust them and that can change, etc....but the mode of operation has to change so you aren't up against it. Now it's all about "hoping" that things turn out. Hope/hoping isn't a plan.
When everyone who isn't on the inside is all saying the same thing about a program, that speaks loudly. This isn't some overreaction from the fanbase. It's not a pot shot from national or local media guys who like to pile on and often unfairly. This is everyone asking "WTF are they doing"? Keshod Johnson had committed to Kentucky on his OV and in his scenario, that should've been announced immediately. It should've been "Great--go public with it" but they wanted to let him go home and let things play out and then it changed.

Kentucky used to work in silence and that's a great way to operate. However they'd also operate in a manner that things were aligned to just add on with some players instead of needing to fill out a roster. So the "hope" has to come through or it's going to be a very fascinating '24 season.

If there are fans desperate for good news, the recruiting in '24/'25 is very strong with elite guys. '25 class is a lot like '16 class was nationally. You will have to mess up to not get a great class of players. May even be smart to take a reclass guy or 2 so you can get as many from that class as possible, But UK is in strong position with many players. There's your good news. Thing is...you have a chance to have a vastly improved team in '24 if you can fill 3 spots. We'd all prefer more but get to 10 and you'll be good. We're all waiting and hoping for the best but this can't be the approach moving forward and thankfully the talent increase of the guys who are on the '24 team will mean they aren't going to be wishy washy or testing things-they'll be gone. So you can operate accordingly.
Agree completely appreciate your insight on here. You always seem fair and impartial and that is refreshing around these parts. I think many of the “silent majority” have realized for quite some time something is wrong, but when respected guys like yourself voice concerns it highlights it even more so.

Please continue to keep those of us who aren’t tuned into the day to day affairs plugged in.
 
Yeah, Ortelli and Beisner need replaced within the staff. (Actually 2 intregal positions moving forward)
I assume Welch will fill the void left by KT Turner.
Bottom line, there's work to be done to complete both the staff and roster. Not a great look when you have games scheduled in about 6 weeks.
Welch needs to be in the spot Robic occupied. They need to move on from Bruiser Flint and he's an unacceptable replacement for KT Turner. He's not an asset at all and if this is the hire, Calipari should eat a lot of **** over it. That would be lazy, sloppy, and not showing any urgency to fix the program.
 
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You don't say. What do you think the issues are? Saying that something seems off doesn't really say anything, I know you have an opinion :D
I don’t think k need to rehash what is broken with this program. It’s posted on here ad nauseam. As with most things in life, it’s not really as bad as the naysayers contend, and not nearly as good as the other side portray. I will leave it to you and the other Cats Pause warriors to fight out those details.
 
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I don’t think k need to rehash what is broken with this program. It’s posted on here ad nauseam. As with most things in life, it’s not really as bad as the naysayers contend, and not nearly as good as the other side portray. I will leave it to you and the other Cats Pause warriors to fight out those details.
You're contradicting yourself. "seems broken", "seems off", but then you say you "don't need to rehash what is broken". Might want to sit this one, Captain Obvious.
 
You're contradicting yourself. "seems broken", "seems off", but then you say you "don't need to rehash what is broken". Might want to sit this one, Captain Obvious.
Ok brother keep on fighting the good fight. What I said was clear many of us have understood something is likely broken for some time, yet fight the urge to post here 25+ times a day repeating the same nonsense. But you be you my man.
 
Oscar Tshiebwe, Antonio Reeves and Chris Livingston have decisions to make. If all three return, or even if two of the three return, the Cats could be flying high next season. If all three depart, however, commence scramble mode.

My guess is Livingston stays in the draft. There has been little buzz about the sophomore-to-be returning to Lexington. He had a good but not great freshman season when he averaged 6.3 points and 4.2 rebounds per game. He’s a developing talent. He might wish to develop at the next level, even if that means the NBA G League.


Reeves is trickier to predict. The transfer from Illinois State was UK’s second-leading scorer at 14.4 points per game last season. He was not invited to the NBA Draft Combine, leading to speculation he might pull out of the draft. Since then, however, rumors have popped up that Reeves might finish degree this summer and play elsewhere as a graduate transfer. In the end, I’m guessing Reeves returns.

Last but not least, my prediction is Tshiebwe remains in the draft. His NBA Draft Combine performance gave hope he could be selected come June 22 in Brooklyn. And other than more NIL money, Oscar might also believe he has nothing left to prove by returning to the college game. To expand his game, he needs to play against professional competition.

For the sake of argument, let’s say the trio has played its final games in a Kentucky uniform. If so, Calipari has to take a deep dive into what’s left in the transfer portal.

Aside from that two-platoon team that went 38-1 in 2014-15, Calipari hasn’t been a 10-player coach. He likes to reduce his rotation to seven or eight dependable players by tournament time. Injuries to Sahvir Wheeler and CJ Fredrick caused Cal to alter that scenario last season, but only seven players ended up averaging double figures in minutes.

Still, even by Cal’s standards, seven scholarship players is an impossibly thin roster. No way that holds up over a long season. And the Cats’ trip to Canada to represent Team USA in the 2023 GLOBL JAM begins July 12. That’s a little over six weeks away.

Maybe I’m wrong. (As usual.) Maybe Tshiebwe, Reeves and Livingston all return and Calipari has a loaded roster for a potential Final Four run. Maybe two of the three return — any two — bringing needed experience for a very green team, even by Calipari’s standards.

If not, there will be plenty of last-minute scrambling in the offices at the Joe Craft Center.
As much as I hate to say it for wanting UK to be loaded next year, I do see the upside that Livingston has that might lure some NBA teams. Laugh if you want, but I see some Jaylen Brown (lite) to his game. Both with a similar frame, both were sort of hybrids (small for power forward position but great for a 3), both weren't quite developed offensively, both were athletic and they were also known to play with a high motor at times. I am in no way saying Livingston is the next Jaylen Brown, but with the traits that they both possessed at this point in their careers, I would definitely take a swing at CL in the 2nd round if I were an NBA exec.
 
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