For those of you downplaying the Edgecombe recruiting failure, a reminder: Calipari's undeniably disappointing if he's not landing elite draft picks.

[Son_Of_Saul]

His entire history as a coach supports this argument.

Look at the win totals:

When he has a top 5 pick on the current team:

1996: 35-2 record
2008: 38-2 record
2009: 33-4
2010: 35-3
2012: 38-2
2015: 38-1
2017: 32-6

Sample Size: 7 years
Average wins and losses:
35.6 wins and 2.9 losses

When he has a 6-10 pick on the roster:

2002: 23-7
2011: 29-9
2013: 21-12
2014: 29-11
2016: 27-9
2018: 26-11

Sample Size: 6 years

Average wins/losses:

25.8 wins and 9.8 losses

When he has a 11-30 pick on his roster, but no top 10 picks:

2006: 33-4
2019: 30-7
2020: 25-6
2021: 9-16
2022: 26-8
2023: 22-12

Sample Size: 6 years

Wins/loss average:

23.8 wins and 8.8 losses


When fans downplay not landing elite draft pick level talent, they're really accepting the inevitable: Cal is Tubby-level when he's not landing top shelf NBA draft picks.

The sample size is sufficient.



He's a 9 to 10 loss per season coach when he doesn't have top 5 picks.

This current roster doesn't feature any top 5 guys, and I'm willing to bet we don't see more than 30 wins with this group.

Just twice in Cal's whole career did he win more than 30 games without a top 5 pick on his roster. That was back in 2006 and 2007 when he coached in the garbage Conference USA league.

 

[gharding07]

College basketball is on such a whole new landscape now with the transfer portal and NIL. Hard to compare anything to right now.

 

[cats2010]

Where did DJ, Bradshaw and Edwards fall in this class? I thought Edwards was top 5 but honestly don’t pay that much attention to players rankings. Skal at #2 ruined that for me. Think that was what he was ranked anyway.

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

That’s why they have to get Peterson, they need that scoring punch. I don’t buy he is an adidas school lock. Get him on campus, sell him on the visit. And lock down your 15-20 point scorer for next year

 

[BBNinSC]

So, you’re saying that you win more games when you have better players?

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

College basketball is on such a whole new landscape now with the transfer portal and NIL. Hard to compare anything to right now.

Not really. That's actually a ridiculous assertion, to just negate a whole body of work because of an alteration in the transfer rule.

Cal has every resource available to continue to win at the highest level. If anything, the transfer rule should help him because he can replace players easier now.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

So, you’re saying that you win more games when you have better players?

I knew someone would throw this trite line in. Someone always does when I run real numbers and they don't have a real response.

It's not just "wins more games"; it's almost 10 to 12 more games per year. Cal is just another coach when he doesn't have top 5 players. The point is that our fans downplay the recruiting misses when we don't land elite future draft picks. They shouldn't. Cal isn't very good without them.

 

[Fox2monk]

Not really. That's actually a ridiculous assertion, to just negate a whole body of work because of an alteration in the transfer rule.

Cal has every resource available to continue to win at the highest level. If anything, the transfer rule should help him because he can replace players easier now.

Quaintance will be a top 5 type player I believe. We need to get a portal stud and have Sheppard return somehow.

 

[CincyUKFan]

Quaintance will be a top 5 type player I believe. We need to get a portal stud and have Sheppard return somehow.

I believe portal studs are few and far between and only help so much. Oscar was POY, but didn’t help us win the games that matter. Portal guys are in the portal because the NBA is not a legitimate option.

 

[DeerTurkHunter1]

His entire history as a coach supports this argument.

Look at the win totals:

When he has a top 5 pick on the current team:

1996: 35-2 record
2008: 38-2 record
2009: 33-4
2010: 35-3
2012: 38-2
2015: 38-1
2017: 32-6

Sample Size: 7 years
Average wins and losses:
35.6 wins and 2.9 losses

When he has a 6-10 pick on the roster:

2002: 23-7
2011: 29-9
2013: 21-12
2014: 29-11
2016: 27-9
2018: 26-11

Sample Size: 6 years

Average wins/losses:

25.8 wins and 9.8 losses

When he has a 11-30 pick on his roster, but no top 10 picks:

2006: 33-4
2019: 30-7
2020: 25-6
2021: 9-16
2022: 26-8
2023: 22-12

Sample Size: 6 years

Wins/loss average:

23.8 wins and 8.8 losses


When fans downplay not landing elite draft pick level talent, they're really accepting the inevitable: Cal is Tubby-level when he's not landing top shelf NBA draft picks.

The sample size is sufficient.



He's a 9 to 10 loss per season coach when he doesn't have top 5 picks.

This current roster doesn't feature any top 5 guys, and I'm willing to bet we don't see more than 30 wins with this group.

Just twice in Cal's whole career did he win more than 30 games without a top 5 pick on his roster. That was back in 2006 and 2007 when he coached in the garbage Conference USA league.

Ground breaking lol. All that to say, coaches win more with better players.

 

[NociHTTP]

The bottom line is that Cal's primary mission (he stated it the other day) is to get recruits to the league as soon as possible. So, if he has the best players the record will naturally be better. If he doesn't have the best players, then the record won't be as good because he'll just pick the best recruits that he does have and showcase them. He's an NBA End Generational Poverty guy.

 

[CincyUKFan]

Ground breaking lol. All that to say, coaches win more with better players.

He already addressed morons who make comments akin to the one you’ve made.

 

[Mike-McD]

So, you’re saying that you win more games when you have better players?

He's saying Cal is unable to win anything without elite players, and the stats hold up.

 

[Mike-McD]

Quaintance will be a top 5 type player I believe. We need to get a portal stud and have Sheppard return somehow.

Quaintance will be a top 5 draft pick? Because that's what he said.

 

[Fox2monk]

Quaintance will be a top 5 draft pick? Because that's what he said.

Yes I believe he has the talent to be a top 5 pick. We get him for 2 years too.

 

[Runnin'Ramel]

Where did DJ, Bradshaw and Edwards fall in this class? I thought Edwards was top 5 but honestly don’t pay that much attention to players rankings. Skal at #2 ruined that for me. Think that was what he was ranked anyway.

Bradshaw 2
Edwards 3
Wagner 6

 

[DeerTurkHunter1]

He already addressed morons who make comments akin to the one you’ve made.

Then you have to pipe in and lower the IQ of the posts even more, thanks for your contribution. A few of you whine more than a middle school girl who just lost her boyfriend. Keep on whining little puberty girl.

 

[AN82]

Hahaha, Edgecome hasn't even played a college game yet and some of you are already declaring him a top 5 pick. Wasn't Edwards a potential top pick for this upcoming draft? How's that working out? Wasn't Sheppard supposed to be a sure fire multi-year player who might make it to the league one day? Now he is almost a top 10 pick on some mock drafts.

I get SOS is on yet another bender during one of his many lonely nights but should we maybe let the Edgecombe actually get to college and play a few games before we make such wild assumptions?

Also, Cal didn’t have a top 5 pick in the 2010 - 2011 season and we made the F4. I think we will be just fine.

 

[AN82]

College basketball is on such a whole new landscape now with the transfer portal and NIL. Hard to compare anything to right now.

Shhhhh....You're negating his baiting thread with facts. Don't do that!

 

[Padsfs07]

I wondered how long you had this drafted up waiting for Edgecombe to commit elsewhere. Maybe it will be the same outcome, but why don't you do recruiting rankings, rather than draft picks.

There is no crystal ball that says Edgecombe will be a top 5 draft pick, ala Justin Edwards, Skal Labissiere, BJ Boston. Those were all top 5 ranked recruits that didn't become top 5 draft picks (looking unlikely in Edwards case)

 

[the stat man]

Hahaha, Edgecome hasn't even played a college gane yet and some of you are already declaring him a top 5 pick. Wasn't Edwards a potential top pick fir this upcoming draft? How's that working out? Wasn't Sheppard supposed to be a sure fire multi-year player who might make it to the league one day? Now he is almost a top 10 pick on some mock drafts.

I get SOS is on yet another bender during one of his many lonely nights but should we maybe let the Edgecombe actually get to college and play a few games before we make such wild assumptions?

Also, Cal didn’t have a top 5 pick in the 2010 - 2011 season and we made the F4. I think we will be just fine.

You just have to remember some that post here have a axe to grind with Cal, like the OP. If it came down to it and there was nothing else he would bitch moan and whine about Cal not wearing a tie to games and if he did he would say it was the wrong color

 

[jeffky]

Why don't you say it louder

 

[G-PIP]

Hahaha, Edgecome hasn't even played a college gane yet and some of you are already declaring him a top 5 pick. Wasn't Edwards a potential top pick fir this upcoming draft? How's that working out? Wasn't Sheppard supposed to be a sure fire multi-year player who might make it to the league one day? Now he is almost a top 10 pick on some mock drafts.

I get SOS is on yet another bender during one of his many lonely nights but should we maybe let the Edgecombe actually get to college and play a few games before we make such wild assumptions?

Also, Cal didn’t have a top 5 pick in the 2010 - 2011 season and we made the F4. I think we will be just fine.

Maybe Edgecomb will be a top 5 draft 5, and maybe he won't. But does he actually have to play a college game to be a top 5 pick? And if Edwards hadn't played a game in college, could he have possibly still been a top draft pick? With NBA drafting, and even recruiting rankings, maybe being more about potential, it seems that for some of these OADs playing college basketball may be a high-risk low reward venture.

 

[clevenger32]

Bradshaw 2
Edwards 3
Wagner 6

And what was the ranking of the kid who was offered because he felt he needed to but didn’t recruit surprised him by taking him up of his half-hearted offer and is now his best player?

 

[Dncmaxwell]

I knew someone would throw this trite line in. Someone always does when I run real numbers and they don't have a real response.

It's not just "wins more games"; it's almost 10 to 12 more games per year. Cal is just another coach when he doesn't have top 5 players. The point is that our fans downplay the recruiting misses when we don't land elite future draft picks. They shouldn't. Cal isn't very good without them.

So they win a lot more games with better players?

😉

 

[AN82]

Maybe Edgecomb will be a top 5 draft 5, and maybe he won't. But does he actually have to play a college game to be a top 5 pick? And if Edwards hadn't played a game in college, could he have possibly still been a top draft pick? With NBA drafting, and even recruiting rankings, maybe being more about potential, it seems that for some of these OADs playing college basketball may be a high-risk low reward venture.

Considering we are talking about their collegiate impact, it would certainly help to see them play a college game. But, they can be top 5 picks by playing internationally, g-league affiliate or some other avenue. It's just typically less likely. Rather it was until the 2023 draft.

OAD is a gamble, but it can be a very worthwhile gamble.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

Ground breaking lol. All that to say, coaches win more with better players.

So they win a lot more games with better players?

😉

10 to 12 more games a year. Shortsighted fans who don't care about historical realities such as yourselves might be okay with the Boogie Flands of the world playing primary scoring roles, but I can assure you Cal - and his historical record - is not.

 

[Aike]

I’m wondering if we got salary capped on Edgecombe? Can’t afford to pay everyone unless you’re the Yankees or the Dodgers.

 

[DreadLox]

I take you as a glass half-empty kind of guy. Am I right?

 

[gojvc]

So, you’re saying that you win more games when you have better players?

That’s why I come to this board. Where else are you going to get this kind of piercing insight?

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

I take you as a glass half-empty kind of guy. Am I right?

No, I'm a guy who knows that over 31 years, Calipari is 2/24 (8.3%) in winning more than 30 games in seasons where he doesn't have a top 5 pick on his roster. He's winning almost 10 games more per season when has one, as opposed to when he has guys in the 11-20 or 21-30 range of the draft.

Cal is the absolute master at getting the most out of elite freshmen, but he also needs them like no other coach. He's no bueno with the portal and no coach in America - including Cal - is going to be able to lean on secondary freshmen for huge win totals.

 

[cardkilla]

His entire history as a coach supports this argument.

Look at the win totals:

When he has a top 5 pick on the current team:

1996: 35-2 record
2008: 38-2 record
2009: 33-4
2010: 35-3
2012: 38-2
2015: 38-1
2017: 32-6

Sample Size: 7 years
Average wins and losses:
35.6 wins and 2.9 losses

When he has a 6-10 pick on the roster:

2002: 23-7
2011: 29-9
2013: 21-12
2014: 29-11
2016: 27-9
2018: 26-11

Sample Size: 6 years

Average wins/losses:

25.8 wins and 9.8 losses

When he has a 11-30 pick on his roster, but no top 10 picks:

2006: 33-4
2019: 30-7
2020: 25-6
2021: 9-16
2022: 26-8
2023: 22-12

Sample Size: 6 years

Wins/loss average:

23.8 wins and 8.8 losses


When fans downplay not landing elite draft pick level talent, they're really accepting the inevitable: Cal is Tubby-level when he's not landing top shelf NBA draft picks.

The sample size is sufficient.



He's a 9 to 10 loss per season coach when he doesn't have top 5 picks.

This current roster doesn't feature any top 5 guys, and I'm willing to bet we don't see more than 30 wins with this group.

Just twice in Cal's whole career did he win more than 30 games without a top 5 pick on his roster. That was back in 2006 and 2007 when he coached in the garbage Conference USA league.

so glad you've already decided we don't have a top 5 pick on the team...lol this thread is sad

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

That’s why I come to this board. Where else are you going to get this kind of piercing insight?

If you think it's trivial that Cal's winning 10 more games per season when he has elite draft picks, then you're missing the point. If we don't have elite guys on our future rosters - Dysbansta, Stokes, Peterson, etc. - we have a 91.7% of not winning more than 30 games based on Cal's career sample size.

Again, if you think that's trivial, then I don't know what to tell you. The point is that Cal's success is tied directly to getting elite, front end draft picks. That isn't the case for every coach in America, but it is for Cal.

 

[DreadLox]

No, I'm a guy who knows that over 31 years, Calipari is 2/24 (8.3%) in winning more than 30 games in seasons where he doesn't have a top 5 pick on his roster. He's winning almost 10 games more per season when has one, as opposed to when he has guys in the 11-20 or 21-30 range of the draft.

Cal is the absolute master at getting the most out of elite freshmen, but he also needs them like no other coach. He's no bueno with the portal and no coach in America - including Cal - is going to be able to lean on secondary freshmen for huge win totals.

I take you as a "The face hugger has escaped!" kind of guy. Am I right?

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

so glad you've already decided we don't have a top 5 pick on the team...lol this thread is sad

Quaintance has a real shot, and if he moves into that top 5 pick camp, or even top 10, we should be decent next year. Sheppard returning would obviously be the priority.

On the current roster, however, who do we have that's a top 5 pick? I thought Edwards would be that guy, but unfortunately it hasn't happened.

 

[Padsfs07]

Maybe Edgecomb will be a top 5 draft 5, and maybe he won't. But does he actually have to play a college game to be a top 5 pick? And if Edwards hadn't played a game in college, could he have possibly still been a top draft pick? With NBA drafting, and even recruiting rankings, maybe being more about potential, it seems that for some of these OADs playing college basketball may be a high-risk low reward venture.

I think Edwards particularly is really hurt by the 5th year (covid) rules. A lot of his matchups have ended up being the big bully type wing that he just can't handle yet.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Sheppard for year two is the biggest recruit for next season. Like I said before, he is the key to being a contender. We have the ingredients, we need the “straw that stirs the drink.” That’s Sheppard.

I like the team as it is, with Shep back, although another wing scorer would be a nice addition, it doesn’t necessarily need to be an elite recruit.

G Sheppard/Perry
G Fland/Hart
G Thiero/Richmond
F Quaintance/Burks
F Onyenso/Cyril

Cal still has a lot of time to sign a wing scorer or two. A reclassed Jasper Johnson would be nice. He would be a good fit alongside Shep. Knox at the 3 gives us another weapon with potential.

Like some others mentioned in this thread, Quaintance could be that top 5 level guy on this team (though he won’t be eligible for the draft until ‘26).

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

I think Edwards particularly is really hurt by the 5th year (covid) rules. A lot of his matchups have ended up being the big bully type wing that he just can't handle yet.

In order for this team to be as good as we all want it to be, I was expecting a Brandon Miller-level season from Edwards. It just hasn't manifested. The good news is that Sheppard, Dillingham, Thiero, Reeves, and Mitchell are all better than we thought they would be.

 

[Cats192]

I think Edwards particularly is really hurt by the 5th year (covid) rules. A lot of his matchups have ended up being the big bully type wing that he just can't handle yet.

I think that's probably accurate.

 

[Cats192]

I'm not mad at Cal for Edgecombe choosing Baylor. Do we feel Cal wasn't recruiting him hard enough? Seemed like he was clearly a priority.

He didn't pick Duke, either.

Duke fans on Twitter/X are saying Baylor came in at the last minute with the most NIL $. And while that's the standard losing team thing to say--it also makes sense. It's rare a kid takes Baylor over both Kentucky and Duke. In 2024, kids are all about how much NIL $ they can get.