For those of you downplaying the Edgecombe recruiting failure, a reminder: Calipari's undeniably disappointing if he's not landing elite draft picks.

[Son_Of_Saul]

Sheppard for year two is the biggest recruit for next season. Like I said before, he is the key to being a contender. We have the ingredients, we need the “straw that stirs the drink.” That’s Sheppard.

I like the team as it is, with Shep back, although another wing scorer would be a nice addition, it doesn’t necessarily need to be an elite recruit.

G Sheppard/Perry
G Fland/Hart
G Thiero/Richmond
F Quaintance/Burks
F Onyenso/Cyril

Cal still has a lot of time to sign a wing scorer or two. A reclassed Jasper Johnson would be nice. He would be a good fit alongside Shep. Knox at the 3 gives us another weapon with potential.

Like some others mentioned in this thread, Quaintance could be that top 5 level guy on this team (though he won’t be eligible for the draft until ‘26).

Add Knox and a transfer to that group, and we could be decent. The lack of scoring on the wing, at present, is minimal. UK needs to add Knox, and either Johnson or a portal guy.

As you mentioned, a second year from Sheppard is the absolute priority.

Sheppard actually has top 5 pick potential. I could see a scenario where both he and Quaintance are in that 3-7 range (with Quaintance obviously being forced to come back). A second year from Quaintance at UK could mean he goes #1 overall after a big sophomore year.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

I'm not mad at Cal for Edgecombe choosing Baylor. Do we feel Cal wasn't recruiting him hard enough? Seemed like he was clearly a priority.

He didn't pick Duke, either.

Duke fans on Twitter/X are saying Baylor came in at the last minute with the most NIL $. And while that's the standard losing team thing to say--it also makes sense. It's rare a kid takes Baylor over both Kentucky and Duke. In 2024, kids are all about how much NIL $ they can get.

I'm disappointed with Cal constantly downplaying the bidding wars in NIL. He needs to embrace it. Our NBA guys have made over $3 billion. It's not a far leap that they could contribute half of whatever NIL totals BBN is coming up with.

I think an annual salary cap of around $5 million is more than reasonable. $1 million from BBN; $1 million from endorsements; $2-3 million from La Familia.

We have the wealthiest collection of alumni players on the face of the planet. We need to utilize that better in the modern era.

 

[YardCat]

Ground breaking lol. All that to say, coaches win more with better players.

Tubby couldn’t, he didn’t want superstars, he couldn’t coach them. He wanted players that would bust their butts for the team. Carruth’s Mom saw this in a vision!

 

[YardCat]

In order for this team to be as good as we all want it to be, I was expecting a Brandon Miller-level season from Edwards. It just hasn't manifested. The good news is that Sheppard, Dillingham, Thiero, Reeves, and Mitchell are all better than we thought they would be.

Edwards is playing more like Darrius Miller was as a sophomore. Not what we expected.

 

[G-PIP]

Considering we are talking about their collegiate impact, it would certainly help to see them play a college game. But, they can be top 5 picks by playing internationally, g-league affiliate or some other avenue. It's just typically less likely. Rather it was until the 2023 draft.

OAD is a gamble, but it can be a very worthwhile gamble.

And a competitor should want to play. So, I wasn't suggesting that a projected high draft pick OAD shouldn't play. At some point they're going to have to play at a much higher level (regardless of what type of teams they competed against in high school) than the one they just came from. I was just running out a thought about "if the goal is to be the highest draft pick possible" is it worth the risk to play?

 

[G-PIP]

I think Edwards particularly is really hurt by the 5th year (covid) rules. A lot of his matchups have ended up being the big bully type wing that he just can't handle yet.

I haven't really noticed that, so I'll defer to you on that. People focus on different things, but I've noticed he has trouble defending Wings who were smaller than him - although maybe, to your point, stronger still due to maturity, etc.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

After watching another SF wing-type player disappoint in Edwards, I'm kind of growing tired of trying to make freshman work in today's game. Now with 5th and 6th year players, I think it's just too hard for 18-year olds to adjust in a short 8 months.

You look at Reeves, and he's been pretty great for us. He might not have the potential, and I do think better teams have a good chance to contain him.. but he provides a very valuable "floor" for us, more than any freshman we have IMO. Reeves is not going to make many mistakes.

Not very upset we didn't get VJ, There's a good chance he struggles for at least half the year anyways and is gone in April. I'd rather take our chances on a top transfer option. Make sure we keep a top recruiting class, for sure.. but we don't need 4-5 top25 guys anymore. We need to start leaning a little more into experienced and known players.

 

[Padsfs07]

I haven't really noticed that, so I'll defer to you on that. People focus on different things, but I've noticed he has trouble defending Wings who were smaller than him - although maybe, to your point, stronger still due to maturity, etc.

He struggles with that too. I was referring to his offense, but also that UNC-W game, he was bullied down low defensively. It happens enough that Calipari won't use him at the 4, which leads to the other mismatch.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Isn’t it kind of strange that our main recruits are performing opposite of their rankings?

Sheppard was the lowest ranked, but is the most highly regarded so far. Dillingham was second lowest and he is considered our second best player overall. Edwards was the top rated recruit we brought in and has been the worst so far. Bradshaw was second and he hasn’t done a lot yet (he’s been injured, though).

 

[AN82]

And a competitor should want to play. So, I wasn't suggesting that a projected high draft pick OAD shouldn't play. At some point they're going to have to play at a much higher level (regardless of what type of teams they competed against in high school) than the one they just came from. I was just running out a thought about "if the goal is to be the highest draft pick possible" is it worth the risk to play?

Evidently Sharpe thought so, but there is an argument to be made that he could have gone higher had he played and demonstrated an ability to play against college dudes vs hs dudes.

 

[FatestCat]

Without VJ we don’t have a top 10 player coming in next year. We have 11 and 12 which is nice but if we have a mass exodus at the end of this year 24-25 could be rough. The portal will be a huge priority.

 

[DreadLox]

I bet Calipari has trouble winning 30 without a center whose name has "a" as its 2nd letter.

 

[ukjenning44]

Cal absolutely can’t win without a couple of top 10 guys. It took the top 2 recruits and draft picks to win his ONE National Championship.
Next season isn’t looking good as of now.

 

[yoshukai]

Where did DJ, Bradshaw and Edwards fall in this class? I thought Edwards was top 5 but honestly don’t pay that much attention to players rankings. Skal at #2 ruined that for me. Think that was what he was ranked anyway.

There’s been several of them that ruined it for me. I don’t pay much attention nowadays either.

 

[Smashcat]

We need to get a portal stud and have Sheppard return somehow.

Agree. I think the E Ky coal barons will pay up to keep Sheppard another year. If UT could grab a guy like Knecht we can find a similarly impactful wing for next season.

 

[G-PIP]

Agree. I think the E Ky coal barons will pay up to keep Sheppard another year. If UT could grab a guy like Knecht we can find a similarly impactful wing for next season.

Smash, why did you have to remind me about Knecht? How do you think this team would have looked with Knecht at SF instead of trying to shoehorn Edwards into that position? And I just can't accept that UK couldn't beat TN for Knecht if they wanted him.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Smash, why did you have to remind me about Knecht? How do you think this team would have looked with Knecht at SF instead of trying to shoehorn Edwards into that position? And I just can't accept that UK couldn't beat TN for Knecht if they wanted him.

I don’t think Cal wanted Knecht all that much. He was looking for him to replace Reeves if he left. With Reeves coming back and Edwards coming in, Knecht was not really needed, at least on paper. There was really no way to know that Edwards was going to be a no show. He was a top 5 prospect and projected lottery pick. Sometimes, it just doesn’t work out for a kid.

I also think Edwards will get better and end the season on a high note. But who knows?

 

[DeerTurkHunter1]

Quaintance has a real shot, and if he moves into that top 5 pick camp, or even top 10, we should be decent next year. Sheppard returning would obviously be the priority.

On the current roster, however, who do we have that's a top 5 pick? I thought Edwards would be that guy, but unfortunately it hasn't happened.

Ok so, you’re saying we don’t have a top 5 pick so Cal can’t win. I’ll bet you whatever you wanna bet that Cal wins north of 30 games this year,,,,wanna bet??? Put your money were your stats are.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

So all Cal needs is one player?

That ‘96 team had that 1 player. And 4 ball boys. Went 36-2!!

That’s even more amazing after you explained it.

And who knew the better players you have the better team you are?

And who’s downplaying not getting this once in a generation player?

Seemed like a fine recruit to have.

His family and the CHC can be Baylor fans now.

I’m sticking with UK!🏀

 

[G-PIP]

I don’t think Cal wanted Knecht all that much. He was looking for him to replace Reeves if he left. With Reeves coming back and Edwards coming in, Knecht was not really needed, at least on paper. There was really no way to know that Edwards was going to be a no show. He was a top 5 prospect and projected lottery pick. Sometimes, it just doesn’t work out for a kid.

I also think Edwards will get better and end the season on a high note. But who knows?

I don't understand why anyone would have expected Edwards to be a better college SF THIS YEAR than Knecht. Even I - a simple life-long basketball fan - could watch videos of both (which I did) and see that Knecht was worlds ahead of Edwards skill wise.

I said it before the season many times that Knecht had developed against much better competition than Edwards was facing. High school on any level is not comparable to any Div. I college league, and I would doubt that it's comparable to any level of college play. Knecht also had size and athleticism, not just obviously superior perimeter shooting. Calipari has expert knowledge of basketball and basketball skills. He had to know that Knecht was a better SF every day and twice on Sunday than Edwards coming into college. Moreover, this is not a tea leaves reading exercise. It will almost always be true that the best SF in the transfer portal will be a better SF than the so called SFs coming out of high school. It will be true next season as well - whether we want to talk about Richmond or Knox.

And the decision should have never been between Reeves and Knecht. That's a red herring. The decision was between Edwards and Knecht. Reeves and Knecht would have played alongside each other.

 

[DreadLox]

Run that question against every other college basketball coach.
And run others: total wins, average wins, average draft position of players.

Then what will you have? Misleading stats. Calipari is teaching players to play the pro game so they'll make more money. If this team wins games/championships/etc at the same time, it's gravy. Meanwhile compared to win-games coaches he's building ships-in-bottles or carving muskrats from coral or whatever. He's simply doing something essentially different. He was hired with the understanding that he would teach kids to play the kind of basketball that would get them paid. Full stop.

 

[DreadLox]

Isn’t it kind of strange that our main recruits are performing opposite of their rankings?

Sheppard was the lowest ranked, but is the most highly regarded so far. Dillingham was second lowest and he is considered our second best player overall. Edwards was the top rated recruit we brought in and has been the worst so far. Bradshaw was second and he hasn’t done a lot yet (he’s been injured, though).

Burks and Hart.

 

[KAB Cats]

OP seems to be arguing against himself itt

 

[Fox2monk]

Agree. I think the E Ky coal barons will pay up to keep Sheppard another year. If UT could grab a guy like Knecht we can find a similarly impactful wing for next season.

I hope so, I wish we nabbed Knecht, we were interested. He’s really good.

 

[Darrell M1234]

There is a lot of elite players. You are not going to get all of them.

 

[bucsrule8872]

I don't understand why anyone would have expected Edwards to be a better college SF THIS YEAR than Knecht. Even I - a simple life-long basketball fan - could watch videos of both (which I did) and see that Knecht was worlds ahead of Edwards skill wise.

I said it before the season many times that Knecht had developed against much better competition than Edwards was facing. High school on any level is not comparable to any Div. I college league, and I would doubt that it's comparable to any level of college play. Knecht also had size and athleticism, not just obviously superior perimeter shooting. Calipari has expert knowledge of basketball and basketball skills. He had to know that Knecht was a better SF every day and twice on Sunday than Edwards coming into college. Moreover, this is not a tea leaves reading exercise. It will almost always be true that the best SF in the transfer portal will be a better SF than the so called SFs coming out of high school. It will be true next season as well - whether we want to talk about Richmond or Knox.

And the decision should have never been between Reeves and Knecht. That's a red herring. The decision was between Edwards and Knecht. Reeves and Knecht would have played alongside each other.

So you are saying Cal needs to quit recruiting HS players and wait for portal players to become available?

Cal has tried building teams of mostly transfers the last two years with a 1-2 record in the NCAA to show for it.

So I am not sure I can get behind that philosophy.

Cal has been more successful with elite HS talent than transfers.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Burks and Hart.

The word “main” is key to my statement. Burks and Hart rarely play.

 

[dlh331]

Edwards signed with UK in November, 2022. Knecht entered the portal in March, 2023. So Cal should have passed on Justin to wait on Knecht?

I like him, but we probably would not have Reeves. I am not sure Knecht is worth Edwards + Reeves.

 

[Hoskins21]

I would assume most coaches would win a lot of games with top 5 picks. I just looked at the 2022 draft. There might be two or three teams that won 30 games. I didn't confirm.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Edwards signed with UK in November, 2022. Knecht entered the portal in March, 2023. So Cal should have passed on Justin to wait on Knecht?

I like him, but we probably would not have Reeves. I am not sure Knecht is worth Edwards + Reeves.

Yeah, that’s kind of a hindsight is 20/20 thing.

Here’s the thing, when we had seven scholarship players in June of 2023, no one was questioning whether we should have signed Edwards or not.

But now that he is a bust, Cal should have waited and signed a portal guy?

Kind of sounds like revisionist history, so to speak.

Cal and just about every other college coach in the country will take an elite recruit in November rather than wait for a potential portal player in May.

I really can’t fault Cal for that.

And if Edwards was playing like Brandon Miller right now, no one would be talking about Knecht at all.

 

[DreadLox]

Yeah, that’s kind of a hindsight is 20/20 thing.

Here’s the thing, when we had seven scholarship players in June of 2023, no one was questioning whether we should have signed Edwards or not.

But now that he is a bust, Cal should have waited and signed a portal guy?

Kind of sounds like revisionist history, so to speak.

Cal and just about every other college coach in the country will take an elite recruit in November rather than wait for a potential portal player in May.

I really can’t fault Cal for that.

And if Edwards was playing like Brandon Miller right now, no one would be talking about Knecht at all.

I've watched Edwards recently. He plays defense as if he's going through a checklist in his mind. Yes, he isn't currently good, but he is, in fact, actively working on getting better. I could state the obvious point that people learn at different rates, but as evidence abounds, everyone doesn't want to learn.

 

[bucsrule8872]

I've watched Edwards recently. He plays defense as if he's going through a checklist in his mind. Yes, he isn't currently good, but he is, in fact, actively working on getting better. I could state the obvious point that people learn at different rates, but as evidence abounds, everyone doesn't want to learn.

I think Edwards is going to be fine. If you have watched enough college basketball you know that Freshmen generally improve as the season progresses. He is, as you said, “figuring it out.” I think things will start to click in the next few weeks and he will turn on. It happens like that a lot for Freshmen, especially with Cal.

 

[TNCatfanforever]

His entire history as a coach supports this argument.

Look at the win totals:

When he has a top 5 pick on the current team:

1996: 35-2 record
2008: 38-2 record
2009: 33-4
2010: 35-3
2012: 38-2
2015: 38-1
2017: 32-6

Sample Size: 7 years
Average wins and losses:
35.6 wins and 2.9 losses

When he has a 6-10 pick on the roster:

2002: 23-7
2011: 29-9
2013: 21-12
2014: 29-11
2016: 27-9
2018: 26-11

Sample Size: 6 years

Average wins/losses:

25.8 wins and 9.8 losses

When he has a 11-30 pick on his roster, but no top 10 picks:

2006: 33-4
2019: 30-7
2020: 25-6
2021: 9-16
2022: 26-8
2023: 22-12

Sample Size: 6 years

Wins/loss average:

23.8 wins and 8.8 losses


When fans downplay not landing elite draft pick level talent, they're really accepting the inevitable: Cal is Tubby-level when he's not landing top shelf NBA draft picks.

The sample size is sufficient.



He's a 9 to 10 loss per season coach when he doesn't have top 5 picks.

This current roster doesn't feature any top 5 guys, and I'm willing to bet we don't see more than 30 wins with this group.

Just twice in Cal's whole career did he win more than 30 games without a top 5 pick on his roster. That was back in 2006 and 2007 when he coached in the garbage Conference USA league.

Great research

 

[DreadLox]

Great research

Meh. Across the coaching profession, how does that compare? The tone is that of accusation. It could very well be that few coaches ever win 30 games regardless of the draft pick status of their players. After all, there are 10 Top Ten picks every year. 5 Top Five picks. How many coaches use that to win 30 games? The tone suggests that winning 30 games is expected of a coach so gifted with players.

 

[G-PIP]

So you are saying Cal needs to quit recruiting HS players and wait for portal players to become available?

Cal has tried building teams of mostly transfers the last two years with a 1-2 record in the NCAA to show for it.

So I am not sure I can get behind that philosophy.

Cal has been more successful with elite HS talent than transfers.

Why would Calipari need to quit recruiting high school players in order to recruit the best established transfer portal players?

You recruit the players that give you the best chance to win regardless of where they come from. If you have a high school OAD commitment and a CURRENTLY better transfer portal option becomes available, then you try like heck to get that transfer. If the h.s. player is afraid to compete and wants out of his commitment, fine let him go. Same thing for the transfer if he commits first. Both players are only giving you one year. Take both if you can get them, or if not take the one that gives UK the best chance to win now.

So, for example, if Knecht would not come to UK because UK already had a commitment from Edwards, then fine. If he’s afraid to compete against a freshman - almost all of which are high on future potential (“talent”) and way behind in skill development – then he probably wasn’t a good enough competitor to help bring a title anyway, right? But if Knecht would have come if earnestly recruited, then it seems like coaching malpractice (if not a fiduciary violation) not to reel him in, regardless of what Edwards thought about it or even if he then wanted out of his commitment.

And the narrative that Calipari is somehow different than other coaches in that he can’t win with a team of more experienced, mature and proven productive college players is just nonsense. And it’s also disingenuous to say Calipari has recently built rosters relying on the top available transfers and it just failed because he can’t win with those proven productive players. Calipari has not brought in the top sought after transfer players – or as far as I can tell, even tried to do so (although Dickinson was an exception). In fact, it seems like he’s almost outright opposed to trying to bring in those top transfers – especially if an OAD freshman hoping to play the same position has already committed. I can't understand that.

 

[natchezrule]

So, you’re saying that you win more games when you have better players?

No. Better coaches

 

[bthaunert]

No, I'm a guy who knows that over 31 years, Calipari is 2/24 (8.3%) in winning more than 30 games in seasons where he doesn't have a top 5 pick on his roster. He's winning almost 10 games more per season when has one, as opposed to when he has guys in the 11-20 or 21-30 range of the draft.

Cal is the absolute master at getting the most out of elite freshmen, but he also needs them like no other coach. He's no bueno with the portal and no coach in America - including Cal - is going to be able to lean on secondary freshmen for huge win totals.

Out of curiousity, I ran your same scenario with Pitino. I will admit, I stretched the pick to top 6 because Antoine and Mercer were both the 6th pick in the draft.

In his 34 years as a head coach, Pitino is 5/31 (16%) in winning more than 30 games when he didn’t have a top 6 pick on his roster. When he has a top 6 pick, he averaged 33 wins per season. When he doesn’t, he averaged 22.6 wins per season.

Maybe I’ll do a couple other coaches bc I have no idea how Cal’s numbers compare to other coaches.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Why would Calipari need to quit recruiting high school players in order to recruit the best established transfer portal players?

You recruit the players that give you the best chance to win regardless of where they come from. If you have a high school OAD commitment and a CURRENTLY better transfer portal option becomes available, then you try like heck to get that transfer. If the h.s. player is afraid to compete and wants out of his commitment, fine let him go. Same thing for the transfer if he commits first. Both players are only giving you one year. Take both if you can get them, or if not take the one that gives UK the best chance to win now.

So, for example, if Knecht would not come to UK because UK already had a commitment from Edwards, then fine. If he’s afraid to compete against a freshman - almost all of which are high on future potential (“talent”) and way behind in skill development – then he probably wasn’t a good enough competitor to help bring a title anyway, right? But if Knecht would have come if earnestly recruited, then it seems like coaching malpractice (if not a fiduciary violation) not to reel him in, regardless of what Edwards thought about it or even if he then wanted out of his commitment.

And the narrative that Calipari is somehow different than other coaches in that he can’t win with a team of more experienced, mature and proven productive college players is just nonsense. And it’s also disingenuous to say Calipari has recently built rosters relying on the top available transfers and it just failed because he can’t win with those proven productive players. Calipari has not brought in the top sought after transfer players – or as far as I can tell, even tried to do so (although Dickinson was an exception). In fact, it seems like he’s almost outright opposed to trying to bring in those top transfers – especially if an OAD freshman hoping to play the same position has already committed. I can't understand that.

Sounds good.

But don’t gripe if Cal does this and it costs us recruits.

A move like that impacts recruiting in the future.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

Out of curiousity, I ran your same scenario with Pitino. I will admit, I stretched the pick to top 6 because Antoine and Mercer were both the 6th pick in the draft.

In his 34 years as a head coach, Pitino is 5/31 (16%) in winning more than 30 games when he didn’t have a top 6 pick on his roster. When he has a top 6 pick, he averaged 33 wins per season. When he doesn’t, he averaged 22.6 wins per season.

Maybe I’ll do a couple other coaches bc I have no idea how Cal’s numbers compare to other coaches.

Thanks for doing that. It would be interesting to compare with other coaches. How many losses is Pitino averaging in both scenarios?

Also, my numbers on Cal are not comprehensive. Did you count Pitino's entire body of work, including his 14-14 at UK or his 2-4 season at Hawaii?

Can you do it following the same perimeters I gave Cal, otherwise it's not a fair comparison on your part.

If I counted all of Cal's years, his averages get much smaller.

 

[bthaunert]

Thanks for doing that. It would be interesting to compare with other coaches. How many losses is Pitino averaging in both scenarios?

3.6 losses per season when he had a top 6 pick.

9 losses per season when he didn’t.