His entire history as a coach supports this argument.
Look at the win totals:
When he has a top 5 pick on the current team:
1996: 35-2 record
2008: 38-2 record
2009: 33-4
2010: 35-3
2012: 38-2
2015: 38-1
2017: 32-6
Sample Size: 7 years
Average wins and losses:
35.6 wins and 2.9 losses
When he has a 6-10 pick on the roster:
2002: 23-7
2011: 29-9
2013: 21-12
2014: 29-11
2016: 27-9
2018: 26-11
Sample Size: 6 years
Average wins/losses:
25.8 wins and 9.8 losses
When he has a 11-30 pick on his roster, but no top 10 picks:
2006: 33-4
2019: 30-7
2020: 25-6
2021: 9-16
2022: 26-8
2023: 22-12
Sample Size: 6 years
Wins/loss average:
23.8 wins and 8.8 losses
When fans downplay not landing elite draft pick level talent, they're really accepting the inevitable: Cal is Tubby-level when he's not landing top shelf NBA draft picks.
The sample size is sufficient.
He's a 9 to 10 loss per season coach when he doesn't have top 5 picks.
This current roster doesn't feature any top 5 guys, and I'm willing to bet we don't see more than 30 wins with this group.
Just twice in Cal's whole career did he win more than 30 games without a top 5 pick on his roster. That was back in 2006 and 2007 when he coached in the garbage Conference USA league.
Look at the win totals:
When he has a top 5 pick on the current team:
1996: 35-2 record
2008: 38-2 record
2009: 33-4
2010: 35-3
2012: 38-2
2015: 38-1
2017: 32-6
Sample Size: 7 years
Average wins and losses:
35.6 wins and 2.9 losses
When he has a 6-10 pick on the roster:
2002: 23-7
2011: 29-9
2013: 21-12
2014: 29-11
2016: 27-9
2018: 26-11
Sample Size: 6 years
Average wins/losses:
25.8 wins and 9.8 losses
When he has a 11-30 pick on his roster, but no top 10 picks:
2006: 33-4
2019: 30-7
2020: 25-6
2021: 9-16
2022: 26-8
2023: 22-12
Sample Size: 6 years
Wins/loss average:
23.8 wins and 8.8 losses
When fans downplay not landing elite draft pick level talent, they're really accepting the inevitable: Cal is Tubby-level when he's not landing top shelf NBA draft picks.
The sample size is sufficient.
He's a 9 to 10 loss per season coach when he doesn't have top 5 picks.
This current roster doesn't feature any top 5 guys, and I'm willing to bet we don't see more than 30 wins with this group.
Just twice in Cal's whole career did he win more than 30 games without a top 5 pick on his roster. That was back in 2006 and 2007 when he coached in the garbage Conference USA league.
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