Fantasy Football

[LineSkiCat14]

A lions fan is picking 10, so I expect him to grab Gibbs at 10 or 11. Rams guy is picking 8th, so I expect him to grab Kyren in the second round at 13, would be my guess.

Always love when league mates pick with their fandom in mind. Not that these are big reaches, though. But take advantage.

This tells you that if they do this (which seems fairly likely), then RBs will go early. So maybe all the more reason to get Breece/Bijan at 5th. And with your pick at 16th, you might have a shot at getting Saquon or Puka.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I can see Kyren slipping but when healthy he was a stud. I tend to shy away from guys like that though so that leaves Gibbs. I think he's going to have a great season. In ppr he should be a 1st round pick. It took him about 5 games last year but then he turned it on. 50+ catches and double digit scores from a rookie on a good offense should be a sign of bigger and better things to come. We know who Montgomery is.

Yep, had Gibbs in both of my leagues last year. I'm surprised to see him outside of the top10 in some of these drafts. Someone on the FantasyPros podcast had a good point: Which guys do you think will be a top3 pick NEXT year? Draft them.

And to me, Gibbs has that potential.

David Montgomery is only getting older, and more injury risk. Gibbs would probably be a top3 pick if he was used in weeks 1-5 last year. I honestly don't think its a total reach if you drafted him with your 4th or 5th picks.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Starting to look at rankings. There's a few guys I just don't understand their ranking, and maybe someone here can help me:

Derrick Henry: yes I know he's a beast, yes I know he's doing things any other RB not named Adrian Peterson are doing.. but father time is undefeated. He's on Baltimore now, who is trying to win a SB NOW. Are they really going to risk this big acquisition by running him into the ground in week 6 against Washington? I feel like they got Henry more so for later in the season when they need him. I have no basis for that, but I will just find it odd if Lamar Jackson (of all QBs) is handing it off to 30 year old Henry over and over again in October.

Jefferson: no QB. I know his splits last year with and without Kirk weren't that different.. but we're talking your 1st round pick. You want to trust my guy Sam Darnold throwing to him, or JJ Mccarthy? Plus he was injured last season. Plus that division only got better (maybe more offensively better, but still). Minnesota plays the Giants to open the season. So that's a win. But their next 6 games are: San Fran, NYJ, Detroit, Green Bay, LA Rams, Texans.. what if they go 2-4? What if it's worse? You don't want your #1 pick to be on his SECOND year in a row of a team that's not competing. There's already talk of him wanting out, but that likely won't happen until next year.. so not a guy I want.

 

[BC_Wader]

I'm not getting the MHJ hype. Yeah he's going to be good but I've never been sold on Kyler Murray. He's going over guys like Deebo, Mike Evans, Nico Collins and Waddle. I'll take any of those guys over him. CBS has him going for 95/1300/8. I don't think he hits those marks.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I'm not getting the MHJ hype. Yeah he's going to be good but I've never been sold on Kyler Murray. He's going over guys like Deebo, Mike Evans, Nico Collins and Waddle. I'll take any of those guys over him. CBS has him going for 95/1300/8. I don't think he hits those marks.

The problem there is that a rookie WR in the 2nd round is just.. nearly unheard of. Even Nabors is many many rounds back (in part because the Giants and Jones are butt cheeks).

I agree, I don't know if I can risk it. Rather let it be someone else's.

But.. I do think Kyler is pretty good. He's coming off injury and is trying to prove himself. He's been a pretty capable QB when healthy, between running and throwing. He's never had great receivers except the end of Fitzgerald, Hollywood brown for a year, and.. and.. ?

Now he's gonna be ready week 1 with a top5 TE in Trey McBride and MHJ. James Conner as their RB is suspect to me.. but Arizona proved to be better than we thought last year. I think MHJ is gonna return at least 4th round value, wind up being a top 15 wideout.. but hard pill to swallow as a potential 2nd round pick.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I'm not getting the MHJ hype. Yeah he's going to be good but I've never been sold on Kyler Murray. He's going over guys like Deebo, Mike Evans, Nico Collins and Waddle. I'll take any of those guys over him. CBS has him going for 95/1300/8. I don't think he hits those marks.

The Texans WR room scares me too. I really wouldn't be upset if I avoid that entire stack of Nico/Dell/Diggs. Good luck guessing which of those guys will get you 15-20 fantasy points night in and night out. Plus they have a running back now with Joe Mixon.

When it comes to Houston, I want Stroud as a late QB and Mixon as a sneaky RB1.. but thats it.

 

[BC_Wader]

Kyler's yet to pass for 4000 or more than 26 tds. He's going to run less this year more than likely. I think where MHJ is being drafted, I'd rather have the WRs I mentioned earlier, especially Deebo. Your probably right on the Texans WRs but I don't know if Diggs can do what he did early in his career as far as being a downfield threat. He seems best suited for the slot now. I know Dell is undersized but he was a fantastic deep threat last season as well as Nico. I can see the apprehension though. It's a crowded room.

 

[BC_Wader]

Just read Aiyuk is fixing to be traded. Yeah, Deebo just went up a few notches for me. Ricky Pearsall looking like a good late round grab now IMO.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Just read Aiyuk is fixing to be traded. Yeah, Deebo just went up a few notches for me. Ricky Pearsall looking like a good late round grab now IMO.

I'll have to check on Aiyuk. I see both him and deebo are late 2nd and early 3rd rounders, almost back to back.

This is why you make sure to draft as late as possible.

I wonder if Buffalo is making a push for Aiyuk. They need someone.

 

[BC_Wader]

I'll have to check on Aiyuk. I see both him and deebo are late 2nd and early 3rd rounders, almost back to back.

This is why you make sure to draft as late as possible.

I wonder if Buffalo is making a push for Aiyuk. They need someone.

Looking like the Browns or Patriots. If the Browns then Cooper will take a hit and who the heck wants to be a Pats WR?

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I'm weirdly starting to think that Tight End is the one position you want to make sure you get, when you can.

You have your tier 1, which to me is: Kelce, Laporta, and McBride (You could put Mark Andrews in there and I wouldn't oppose)
Then your tier 2, which is: Andrews, Kittle, Pitts, Kincaid, Engram
And then tier 3: Ferguson, Njoku, Muth, Kmet..

But the problem is, that tier3, kind of reminds me of what tight ends 3-10 looked like in recent years, where after Kelce and Andrews, it was almost a crap shoot.

Really.. you have 8 Tight ends, and everything after that is kind of a crap shoot. And you compare that to QBs, which I feel like you have 15 that could work.. WRs you have 30-40.. even RBs you're gonna get 16-18..

So for me, a big note for the drafts will be to make sure I get one of those top8. I really don't think you want to be left outside of that where your tight end might get you 5 fantasy points for much of the weeks. And honestly, there's a few guys in that top 8 I'm skeptical of, such as Pitts if he can show his potential or Kittle/Andrews if they can stay healthy. Even Kelce is old now.

 

[JumperJack]

Who are your do-not-draft guys, LineSki.

And who are your best sleepers.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Who are your do-not-draft guys, LineSki.

And who are your best sleepers.

Oh wow! Someone happened to stop in!

Still making my rankings, I'm about 70th in.

When I say Do-Not-Draft, it usually just means fade them a round or two. Of course, if someone in the 2nd round I don't like, somehow falls to the 4th? Ok, I'll probably take him.

DND:
Jefferson - Darnold is his QB, Minny has real questions, Jefferson has Hammy issues.
D Henry - This one is against everyone.. I just can't see Baltimore rushing this guy a ton, when they are trying to win in February. Also Derrick Henry is being compared to Adrian Peterson for durability, but Henry didn't get a lot of burn early in his college or pro career. AP is on his own level as far as I'm concerned.
Achane - Worries me about his durability and size
Crowded WR rooms that share similar talent - Bears (Rome/DJ/Keenan) and Houston (Nico/Tank/Diggs)
Same for Running backs - Cincy (Moss/Brown), Tenn (Pollard/Spears), Denver (Javonte/Mclaughlin)
Anyone over 28 otherwise and I'm pretty strong about this.

Sleepers:
-Brock bowers could be a steal if they run him all over the field.
-Jaylen Warren for a late RB
-Terry McLaurin has a QB for once
-Dalton Kincaid has Josh allen to himsself
-Kyler and Jaden Mcdaniels will likely prove to each be 3-4 rounds higher than drafted
-Godwin should regress to the mean
-James Conner should be a sneaky RB pick.


I'll add more to this during the week.

 

[BC_Wader]

Oh wow! Someone happened to stop in!

Still making my rankings, I'm about 70th in.

When I say Do-Not-Draft, it usually just means fade them a round or two. Of course, if someone in the 2nd round I don't like, somehow falls to the 4th? Ok, I'll probably take him.

DND:
Jefferson - Darnold is his QB, Minny has real questions, Jefferson has Hammy issues.
D Henry - This one is against everyone.. I just can't see Baltimore rushing this guy a ton, when they are trying to win in February. Also Derrick Henry is being compared to Adrian Peterson for durability, but Henry didn't get a lot of burn early in his college or pro career. AP is on his own level as far as I'm concerned.
Achane - Worries me about his durability and size
Crowded WR rooms that share similar talent - Bears (Rome/DJ/Keenan) and Houston (Nico/Tank/Diggs)
Same for Running backs - Cincy (Moss/Brown), Tenn (Pollard/Spears), Denver (Javonte/Mclaughlin)
Anyone over 28 otherwise and I'm pretty strong about this.

Sleepers:
-Brock bowers could be a steal if they run him all over the field.
-Jaylen Warren for a late RB
-Terry McLaurin has a QB for once
-Dalton Kincaid has Josh allen to himsself
-Kyler and Jaden Mcdaniels will likely prove to each be 3-4 rounds higher than drafted
-Godwin should regress to the mean
-James Conner should be a sneaky RB pick.


I'll add more to this during the week.

Javonte is a steal I feel though Jaleel will be involved. Still, rather have him over Rhamondre, Zamir, James Conner. (I didn't mean to rhyme there).

I'm targeting Warren in all my leagues but not before I nab some pass catchers.

I see Daniels and Caleb Williams going before proven guys like Tua and Purdy. I don't think so.

TE seems a bit deeper this year. I have no problem stocking up on RBs and WRs and waiting on TE. I'll take a Conklin or Kemet or Otton much later.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Javonte is a steal I feel though Jaleel will be involved. Still, rather have him over Rhamondre, Zamir, James Conner. (I didn't mean to rhyme there).

I'm targeting Warren in all my leagues but not before I nab some pass catchers.

I see Daniels and Caleb Williams going before proven guys like Tua and Purdy. I don't think so.

TE seems a bit deeper this year. I have no problem stocking up on RBs and WRs and waiting on TE. I'll take a Conklin or Kemet or Otton much later.

Javonte is probably going to blow past his ADP. He's still very talented and people don't realize that the first year back of a knee injury, is often the lost season. It's the NEXT full season after that they return to form.

Yep, really like Warren. My only question is Arthur Smith. He did a lot of RBBC in Atlanta so I don't see why that won't apply here? But still targeting him.

Caleb no, because he has little rushing upside. But Daniel's? Absolutely. He's going as like an 8 to 12qb and there's a chance he smashes his way to top3. I'd much rather have Daniel's as a 8th round pick than Josh Allen in the 3rd or even Purdy in the 7th. But Tua is intriguing as he will go later.

My thought with TEs is that you really need one in the top8. Years past, maybe only 2 guys got high volume TEs, but we're looking at a resurgence where your entire league might have a TE that can get you 10-12pts (or more) every week. So I wouldn't want to be the guy who misses out and is one of the few whose TR basically gets them nothing. Plus, if you get a McBride, then you can set and forget your TE. I hate when TE turns into another streaming situation where I'm wasting waiver spots or money.

 

[krazykats]

Benson I think will prove worthy and hurt Conner.

Agree on Bowers and would have him at a min in your tier 3 TE ranking.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Benson I think will prove worthy and hurt Conner.

Agree on Bowers and would have him at a min in your tier 3 TE ranking.

Got both Bowers and Conner in my draft last night, which I'll post in a bit.

Hope you're wrong on the 1st and right on the 2nd lol. I do think if James Conner goes down (or when, I should say), then it could be Trey Benson season.. but, I think it's Connors backfield until that happens. He's still very good and very capable. It's not like a Zach moss and Chase Brown, or Zeke and Dowdle situation.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

1.	(6)	CeeDee Lamb	WR
2.	(15)	Kyren Williams	RB
3.	(26)	Drake London	WR
4.	(35)	Jaylen Waddle	WR
5.	(46)	Anthony Richardson	QB
6.	(55)	Terry McLaurin	WR
7.	(66)	James Conner	RB
8.	(75)	Jayden Daniels	QB
9.	(86)	Brian Robinson Jr.	RB
10.	(95)	Brock Bowers	TE
11.	(106)	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR
12.	(115)	New York	DEF
13.	(126)	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR
14.	(135)	Chuba Hubbard	RB
15.	(146)	Joshua Palmer	WR
16.	(155)	Jake Moody	K

This draft was weird, a few people had to draft from their phones and one did it right during some family function, so a few auto-draft picks happened. Played flip cup, but came in dead last (ashamed of myself), however, still got the pick I wanted with 6th.

Very odd that CeeDee fell to me, but I'll gladly take him at 6th. Kyren worries me a bit with his health, but for what I was planning to do next, I needed a strong RB. I then went heavy on WRs as it's a 3WR league, and I had all of these guys circled: London (now has a QB), Waddle (maybe the best #2 WR), and Terry (also now has a QB). I think these 3 could smash and all of them finish in the top20, maybe top15.

I kind of got stuck with A-Rich because he was right there and not a lot I liked after him. Wanted James Conner because I see good value here in the 7th round for a very capable RB1, just has to stay healthy.

My biggest mistake was probably taking another QB at 8th.. BUT, Richardson could have injury risk and I didn't want anyone else having Jayden Daniels who COULD finish as a top3 QB. I will look to trade one of them.

I shaded TE a little too hard, as a bunch of tacos grabbed 2nd TEs which surprised me, so I was literally left with nobodies, and therefore had to reach a few rounds for Brock Bowers. But that could pay off big time. Camps reports coming out that he's lining up all over the field.

After that, a lot of young picks, BRJ and BRT, Jaxon, Josh Palmer. All these guys have potential to blow up and get you 15ppg. Loved the Jets defense, and if they can get Hassan on the field, I could see them being like Dallas early last year, and just smashing opponents.

Kind of a boom or bust roster. If the guys take off like many are planning, I should compete for a title. I could use a better TE and maybe an RB2, so I will look to trade a WR that I dont need, to someone who does.

 

[GeraldV]

Mind me asking who went 1-5? I expected CMC, Breece, Bijan, Tyreek and CD to go 1-5 in some order. Who got bumped up a spot?

 

[GeraldV]

Also, I’m picking 5th as I’ve said, and I expect our teams to look pretty similar for the first five rounds or so. We are drafting Saturday and I will update after.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Mind me asking who went 1-5? I expected CMC, Breece, Bijan, Tyreek and CD to go 1-5 in some order. Who got bumped up a spot?

So we have 3 WR but half PPR. So in that format you sort of favor WRs more (or I do at least). I expected it to go CMC, Ceedee, Tyreek.. and then some combination of Bijan, Breece and Chase.

Instead it went 1. Breece. 2. Jefferson (lol). 3. Tyreek. 4. Bijan. 5. CMC.

Very odd.

I really liked the 6th spot because in a 10 man league, almost all of the "sleeper" type guys are ranked right in range for whoever drafts 6th. Guys like Waddle, Terry, Jayden Daniels, BRJ, and James Conner were all right there for me, didn't really have to reach for them. So I kind of like the 5th spot for that reason. My only issue with the 5th is that the 16th pick starts to get into a tricky area for me.

But as you can see, you never know where some people will take players. 9th got Jamaar Chase and Garret Wilson. That's pretty good for the 9th and 12th picks.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Also, I’m picking 5th as I’ve said, and I expect our teams to look pretty similar for the first five rounds or so. We are drafting Saturday and I will update after.

Yahoo gave me a C, but it's because a lot of my roster is based on upside. At 5th you can get a topWR, 16th an RB like Henry or Kyren, 25th maybe Olave/London who both should breakout IMO, and 36th someone like Waddle, Devonta, a top QB or a top TE.

I really like 5th 6th 7th and 8th in this year's draft. All other picks really hit some dead zones.

 

[krazykats]

No need to lol at Jefferson. Cousins wasn’t that great, and when he came back he still produced last year.

Not saying Darnold is a stud at QB, but O’Connell is a stud at HC and at offense which is already putting Darnold in a better position than the Jets/Panthers ever had him in.

Addison, Hock and Aaron Jones almost guarantee Jefferson is in a lot of 1v1 and he won’t lose many of those.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

No need to lol at Jefferson. Cousins wasn’t that great, and when he came back he still produced last year.

Not saying Darnold is a stud at QB, but O’Connell is a stud at HC and at offense which is already putting Darnold in a better position than the Jets/Panthers ever had him in.

Addison, Hock and Aaron Jones almost guarantee Jefferson is in a lot of 1v1 and he won’t lose many of those.

Ive had this discussion on Reddit Fantasy forums. I think JJ is going to get his no matter who is at QB, that's what the top WRs do.. but to take him at 2nd overall? Thats where it's a bad move.

JJ is coming off an injury riddled year, He just lost McCarthy, who really was kind of the only upside for his fantasy value in the event that McCarthy is the real deal.. So now he has Darnold who just isn't good, and Minnesota just isn't going to be competing for the playoffs, IMO. With the top picks, and especially your #1 pick.. you want a guy who is on a team that's competing come fantasy playoffs. Fast forward to week 15, I just can't see Jefferson picking up 140 yards and 2 TDs from Sam Darnold on a 5 win Vikings team.

A lot of people think JJ is QB-proof, but we have to remember, he did have several duds last year. 3 of his 10 games, he got you less than 10 fantasy points. I can deal with that from my 3rd pick, but not my 1st.

Also, Hock is out for the first few weeks. Which could be a good thing for JJ, but ultimately bad for the Vikings.

 

[BC_Wader]

Yahoo gave me a C, but it's because a lot of my roster is based on upside. At 5th you can get a topWR, 16th an RB like Henry or Kyren, 25th maybe Olave/London who both should breakout IMO, and 36th someone like Waddle, Devonta, a top QB or a top TE.

I really like 5th 6th 7th and 8th in this year's draft. All other picks really hit some dead zones.

Like your squad but I pay ZERO attention to sites draft grades. It's all based on their ADP rankings. I've played fantasy for almost 30 years now and the teams that have the lowest draft grades seem to do the best. That's why it's important to have your own rankings, which you've said you do, so I wouldn't sweat it at all.