Fantasy Football

[LineSkiCat14]

A lions fan is picking 10, so I expect him to grab Gibbs at 10 or 11. Rams guy is picking 8th, so I expect him to grab Kyren in the second round at 13, would be my guess.

Always love when league mates pick with their fandom in mind. Not that these are big reaches, though. But take advantage.

This tells you that if they do this (which seems fairly likely), then RBs will go early. So maybe all the more reason to get Breece/Bijan at 5th. And with your pick at 16th, you might have a shot at getting Saquon or Puka.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I can see Kyren slipping but when healthy he was a stud. I tend to shy away from guys like that though so that leaves Gibbs. I think he's going to have a great season. In ppr he should be a 1st round pick. It took him about 5 games last year but then he turned it on. 50+ catches and double digit scores from a rookie on a good offense should be a sign of bigger and better things to come. We know who Montgomery is.

Yep, had Gibbs in both of my leagues last year. I'm surprised to see him outside of the top10 in some of these drafts. Someone on the FantasyPros podcast had a good point: Which guys do you think will be a top3 pick NEXT year? Draft them.

And to me, Gibbs has that potential.

David Montgomery is only getting older, and more injury risk. Gibbs would probably be a top3 pick if he was used in weeks 1-5 last year. I honestly don't think its a total reach if you drafted him with your 4th or 5th picks.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Starting to look at rankings. There's a few guys I just don't understand their ranking, and maybe someone here can help me:

Derrick Henry: yes I know he's a beast, yes I know he's doing things any other RB not named Adrian Peterson are doing.. but father time is undefeated. He's on Baltimore now, who is trying to win a SB NOW. Are they really going to risk this big acquisition by running him into the ground in week 6 against Washington? I feel like they got Henry more so for later in the season when they need him. I have no basis for that, but I will just find it odd if Lamar Jackson (of all QBs) is handing it off to 30 year old Henry over and over again in October.

Jefferson: no QB. I know his splits last year with and without Kirk weren't that different.. but we're talking your 1st round pick. You want to trust my guy Sam Darnold throwing to him, or JJ Mccarthy? Plus he was injured last season. Plus that division only got better (maybe more offensively better, but still). Minnesota plays the Giants to open the season. So that's a win. But their next 6 games are: San Fran, NYJ, Detroit, Green Bay, LA Rams, Texans.. what if they go 2-4? What if it's worse? You don't want your #1 pick to be on his SECOND year in a row of a team that's not competing. There's already talk of him wanting out, but that likely won't happen until next year.. so not a guy I want.

 

[BC_Wader]

I'm not getting the MHJ hype. Yeah he's going to be good but I've never been sold on Kyler Murray. He's going over guys like Deebo, Mike Evans, Nico Collins and Waddle. I'll take any of those guys over him. CBS has him going for 95/1300/8. I don't think he hits those marks.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I'm not getting the MHJ hype. Yeah he's going to be good but I've never been sold on Kyler Murray. He's going over guys like Deebo, Mike Evans, Nico Collins and Waddle. I'll take any of those guys over him. CBS has him going for 95/1300/8. I don't think he hits those marks.

The problem there is that a rookie WR in the 2nd round is just.. nearly unheard of. Even Nabors is many many rounds back (in part because the Giants and Jones are butt cheeks).

I agree, I don't know if I can risk it. Rather let it be someone else's.

But.. I do think Kyler is pretty good. He's coming off injury and is trying to prove himself. He's been a pretty capable QB when healthy, between running and throwing. He's never had great receivers except the end of Fitzgerald, Hollywood brown for a year, and.. and.. ?

Now he's gonna be ready week 1 with a top5 TE in Trey McBride and MHJ. James Conner as their RB is suspect to me.. but Arizona proved to be better than we thought last year. I think MHJ is gonna return at least 4th round value, wind up being a top 15 wideout.. but hard pill to swallow as a potential 2nd round pick.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I'm not getting the MHJ hype. Yeah he's going to be good but I've never been sold on Kyler Murray. He's going over guys like Deebo, Mike Evans, Nico Collins and Waddle. I'll take any of those guys over him. CBS has him going for 95/1300/8. I don't think he hits those marks.

The Texans WR room scares me too. I really wouldn't be upset if I avoid that entire stack of Nico/Dell/Diggs. Good luck guessing which of those guys will get you 15-20 fantasy points night in and night out. Plus they have a running back now with Joe Mixon.

When it comes to Houston, I want Stroud as a late QB and Mixon as a sneaky RB1.. but thats it.

 

[BC_Wader]

Kyler's yet to pass for 4000 or more than 26 tds. He's going to run less this year more than likely. I think where MHJ is being drafted, I'd rather have the WRs I mentioned earlier, especially Deebo. Your probably right on the Texans WRs but I don't know if Diggs can do what he did early in his career as far as being a downfield threat. He seems best suited for the slot now. I know Dell is undersized but he was a fantastic deep threat last season as well as Nico. I can see the apprehension though. It's a crowded room.

 

[BC_Wader]

Just read Aiyuk is fixing to be traded. Yeah, Deebo just went up a few notches for me. Ricky Pearsall looking like a good late round grab now IMO.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Just read Aiyuk is fixing to be traded. Yeah, Deebo just went up a few notches for me. Ricky Pearsall looking like a good late round grab now IMO.

I'll have to check on Aiyuk. I see both him and deebo are late 2nd and early 3rd rounders, almost back to back.

This is why you make sure to draft as late as possible.

I wonder if Buffalo is making a push for Aiyuk. They need someone.

 

[BC_Wader]

I'll have to check on Aiyuk. I see both him and deebo are late 2nd and early 3rd rounders, almost back to back.

This is why you make sure to draft as late as possible.

I wonder if Buffalo is making a push for Aiyuk. They need someone.

Looking like the Browns or Patriots. If the Browns then Cooper will take a hit and who the heck wants to be a Pats WR?

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I'm weirdly starting to think that Tight End is the one position you want to make sure you get, when you can.

You have your tier 1, which to me is: Kelce, Laporta, and McBride (You could put Mark Andrews in there and I wouldn't oppose)
Then your tier 2, which is: Andrews, Kittle, Pitts, Kincaid, Engram
And then tier 3: Ferguson, Njoku, Muth, Kmet..

But the problem is, that tier3, kind of reminds me of what tight ends 3-10 looked like in recent years, where after Kelce and Andrews, it was almost a crap shoot.

Really.. you have 8 Tight ends, and everything after that is kind of a crap shoot. And you compare that to QBs, which I feel like you have 15 that could work.. WRs you have 30-40.. even RBs you're gonna get 16-18..

So for me, a big note for the drafts will be to make sure I get one of those top8. I really don't think you want to be left outside of that where your tight end might get you 5 fantasy points for much of the weeks. And honestly, there's a few guys in that top 8 I'm skeptical of, such as Pitts if he can show his potential or Kittle/Andrews if they can stay healthy. Even Kelce is old now.

 

[JumperJack]

Who are your do-not-draft guys, LineSki.

And who are your best sleepers.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Who are your do-not-draft guys, LineSki.

And who are your best sleepers.

Oh wow! Someone happened to stop in!

Still making my rankings, I'm about 70th in.

When I say Do-Not-Draft, it usually just means fade them a round or two. Of course, if someone in the 2nd round I don't like, somehow falls to the 4th? Ok, I'll probably take him.

DND:
Jefferson - Darnold is his QB, Minny has real questions, Jefferson has Hammy issues.
D Henry - This one is against everyone.. I just can't see Baltimore rushing this guy a ton, when they are trying to win in February. Also Derrick Henry is being compared to Adrian Peterson for durability, but Henry didn't get a lot of burn early in his college or pro career. AP is on his own level as far as I'm concerned.
Achane - Worries me about his durability and size
Crowded WR rooms that share similar talent - Bears (Rome/DJ/Keenan) and Houston (Nico/Tank/Diggs)
Same for Running backs - Cincy (Moss/Brown), Tenn (Pollard/Spears), Denver (Javonte/Mclaughlin)
Anyone over 28 otherwise and I'm pretty strong about this.

Sleepers:
-Brock bowers could be a steal if they run him all over the field.
-Jaylen Warren for a late RB
-Terry McLaurin has a QB for once
-Dalton Kincaid has Josh allen to himsself
-Kyler and Jaden Mcdaniels will likely prove to each be 3-4 rounds higher than drafted
-Godwin should regress to the mean
-James Conner should be a sneaky RB pick.


I'll add more to this during the week.

 

[BC_Wader]

Oh wow! Someone happened to stop in!

Still making my rankings, I'm about 70th in.

When I say Do-Not-Draft, it usually just means fade them a round or two. Of course, if someone in the 2nd round I don't like, somehow falls to the 4th? Ok, I'll probably take him.

DND:
Jefferson - Darnold is his QB, Minny has real questions, Jefferson has Hammy issues.
D Henry - This one is against everyone.. I just can't see Baltimore rushing this guy a ton, when they are trying to win in February. Also Derrick Henry is being compared to Adrian Peterson for durability, but Henry didn't get a lot of burn early in his college or pro career. AP is on his own level as far as I'm concerned.
Achane - Worries me about his durability and size
Crowded WR rooms that share similar talent - Bears (Rome/DJ/Keenan) and Houston (Nico/Tank/Diggs)
Same for Running backs - Cincy (Moss/Brown), Tenn (Pollard/Spears), Denver (Javonte/Mclaughlin)
Anyone over 28 otherwise and I'm pretty strong about this.

Sleepers:
-Brock bowers could be a steal if they run him all over the field.
-Jaylen Warren for a late RB
-Terry McLaurin has a QB for once
-Dalton Kincaid has Josh allen to himsself
-Kyler and Jaden Mcdaniels will likely prove to each be 3-4 rounds higher than drafted
-Godwin should regress to the mean
-James Conner should be a sneaky RB pick.


I'll add more to this during the week.

Javonte is a steal I feel though Jaleel will be involved. Still, rather have him over Rhamondre, Zamir, James Conner. (I didn't mean to rhyme there).

I'm targeting Warren in all my leagues but not before I nab some pass catchers.

I see Daniels and Caleb Williams going before proven guys like Tua and Purdy. I don't think so.

TE seems a bit deeper this year. I have no problem stocking up on RBs and WRs and waiting on TE. I'll take a Conklin or Kemet or Otton much later.