Everyone except Virginia, Kentucky and Gonzaga, all other 348 D-1 teams have at least 2 losses. They still have 4 "tough" games, but three at home (St. Mary's, Memphis, BYU) and one on the road (St. Mary's).
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While true, if UCLA plays a bit better, the Zags will have 6, possibly 7 top 50 wins. They have 4 already (5 if UCLA cracks the top 50, currently 54th).Originally posted by ukfan79:
If Gonzaga loses again, it will be Feb 21 at St. Mary's. About zero % chance they lose to any of those teams on their home floor.
Even at 1 or 2 losses and ranked as high as number 2 or 3 at season's end will not guarantee them a 1 seed though. Look at Louisville last year. They were ranked #5 and got a 4 seed.
I think these 3 are #1 seed at this point and have a good shot at staying there.Duke,KU,Wis and probably one other team will slug it out for the 4th spot.There will be interesting games between now and Feb1,we should be able to enjoy everybody trying to avoid us as long as they can.Originally posted by KA4Prez:
Everyone except Virginia, Kentucky and Gonzaga, all other 348 D-1 teams have at least 2 losses. They still have 4 "tough" games, but three at home (St. Mary's, Memphis, BYU) and one on the road (St. Mary's).
And it shouldn't.Originally posted by ukfan79:
If Gonzaga loses again, it will be Feb 21 at St. Mary's. About zero % chance they lose to any of those teams on their home floor.
Even at 1 or 2 losses and ranked as high as number 2 or 3 at season's end will not guarantee them a 1 seed though. Look at Louisville last year. They were ranked #5 and got a 4 seed.
Are Memphis, St. John's, Georgia, and SMU going to be top 5 seeds in the NCAA Tourney? Are they even going to be IN the tourney?Originally posted by Joneslab:
^ Not sure there are very many similarities between Wichita St. and Gonzaga.
Gonzaga gets a few big games a year in the OOC. For awhile they were playing Memphis--when Memphis was good--and in fact that game is still on this year. They played Georgia, they played a then-ranked St. John's, they played a supposed-to-be-good SMU, they played at Arizona. They've played a bunch of exempt events over the years.
I don't see the comparison between what they've done for the past decade and Wichita St. Wichita St. is more along the lines of a Butler or a Xavier--a program that has a very good coach and that has caught a little lightning.
Gonzaga certainly isn't an elite program, but they play an OOC schedule that mid-majors envy.
Well, they're 4-1 against the top 50 of the RPI.Originally posted by mj2k10:
Are Memphis, St. John's, Georgia, and SMU going to be top 5 seeds in the NCAA Tourney? Are they even going to be IN the tourney?
Still not buying into Gonzaga being all that great. Their schedule just doesn't match up with the big boys on the block and their conference won't help them get ready very well for the tournament where they will face much better competition and coaching. And, I know you meant Mark Few.Originally posted by Joneslab:
Gonzaga looks similar to me to Wisconsin last year. A lot of guys who can shoot and spread you out, a stretch big man who can play away from the basket, a 40%+ three-point shooting team.
I think teams like that--read: teams who are soft and don't like physical play--always run the risk of dropping the NCAA Tournament Special: games played in the 50s against rugged, chip-on-their-shoulders teams from the east. There's a reason UCONN has had such NCAA Tournament success.
But I do think this Gonzaga team is arguably the best Mark Fox has had and while I wouldn't put them in my Final Four, I didn't buy Wisconsin last year either. Those teams are highly dangerous if the match-ups fall the right way and if they can work through the gauntlet not having to play ugly.
Thanks.Originally posted by ORCAT:
Still not buying into Gonzaga being all that great. Their schedule just doesn't match up with the big boys on the block and their conference won't help them get ready very well for the tournament where they will face much better competition and coaching. And, I know you meant Mark Few.
Kyle starts...............................Originally posted by ORCAT:
Still not buying into Gonzaga being all that great. Their schedule just doesn't match up with the big boys on the block and their conference won't help them get ready very well for the tournament where they will face much better competition and coaching. And, I know you meant Mark Few.Originally posted by Joneslab:
Gonzaga looks similar to me to Wisconsin last year. A lot of guys who can shoot and spread you out, a stretch big man who can play away from the basket, a 40%+ three-point shooting team.
I think teams like that--read: teams who are soft and don't like physical play--always run the risk of dropping the NCAA Tournament Special: games played in the 50s against rugged, chip-on-their-shoulders teams from the east. There's a reason UCONN has had such NCAA Tournament success.
But I do think this Gonzaga team is arguably the best Mark Fox has had and while I wouldn't put them in my Final Four, I didn't buy Wisconsin last year either. Those teams are highly dangerous if the match-ups fall the right way and if they can work through the gauntlet not having to play ugly.
After that shellacking last night, I don't believe Villanova will be in the discussion. Maybe if they run the table and win their conference tourney, but I highly doubt that will happen. They still have games at Providence, Butler, and Xavier. They'll drop at least 2 of those IMO. To me, they are more of a 3 or 4 seed type of team.Originally posted by far_away_fan:
Gonzaga (and Villanova) will be a 1 seed if they run the table. They will probably also be a one seed if they lose only one more game (unless Arizona wins out or the ACC has two teams that look about equal by season's end).
Things to consider:
1) Assuming the ACC has a clear best team, it's hard to put the second best ACC team as a one seed as well.
2) The winners of the Big 10, Big 12, and PAC will probably have at least 4 losses (and more likely 5) by the time conference tourney time is over.
So who gets the one seeds over Zaga and Nova (assuming each has one or two losses)? A 4 or 5 loss Wisconsin or Arizona team... An ACC team (like Duke) that has 4 or 5 losses and finishes 3 games behind UVA in conference play?
It's hard to imagine the committee making that decision.
I don't think Nova or Zaga are as good as Duke or Wisconsin or Arizona, but by the end of the year, the difference in losses will probably be enough to give the teams in weak conferences the edge.
Of course, that would definitely change if Duke or Zona or Wisconsin wins out. It probably changes if Duke or Zona or Wisconsin only lose one more game (including conference tourney). But I don't think they are that good (relative to their conference opposition) to make that scenario likely.
I so hope you're right. I've watched Gonzaga a little just to see if maybe Wiltjer had decided that he really wanted to play professional basketball - you know, use the interior moves his father spent a decade teaching him and committing to practicing and playing hard. I didn't see any change. It still appeared that he would not contest a put back by muggsy bogues for fear of contact. So, if Gonzaga depends on Wiltjer to rebound, play defense or even have voluntary contact with another human being on the basketball floor, then this would be the easiest 2 seed for UK maybe in the history of the tournament.Originally posted by Wall2Boogie:
I going to look ahead and guess they will put the zags in our bracket as a 2 or 3 seed.