It’s a discussion board. You’re trolling me because you disagree with me. Mirror yourself bro.
Casually Scoring 90 vs a Top 10 Defensive Team
- Thread starter thedahc
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It’s a discussion board. You’re trolling me because you disagree with me. Mirror yourself bro.
I’m just not sure we’re better with Bradshaw and Ugo than we were before they were available. But I’ll give you they could have impacted the Kansas game.
Well, we beat UNC with Brashaw and Ugo.
Do you think we would have beaten UNC without them? If not, then it stands to reason we are better than we were before they were available. Right????
I’m assuming some of you are either relatives of Cal or assistant coaches with the high levels of sensitivity here. I like Cal. I want him to succeed. I like this team. I want them to succeed. I don’t think they’re improving at the rate necessary to reach the level of like to see them achieve which is a national title. You all can disagree with me but calling me a troll or claiming I hate Cal or whatever weak sauce BS you want to throw out there will it change that.
This team could and should be better than they are now. Saying that does not make me a hater. Arguing with it means you have a lower standard than I do for where this team should be right now.
This team could and should be better than they are now. Saying that does not make me a hater. Arguing with it means you have a lower standard than I do for where this team should be right now.
I wouldn't necessarily say we aren't improving.
past few games we basically played to the Vegas line. This game we were way over.
Yeah the defense wasn't good in the 2nd half but a large part of the reason we had that big lead in the first half was due to defense.
Obviously this is just one game but I liked what I saw for a large part of this one.
past few games we basically played to the Vegas line. This game we were way over.
Yeah the defense wasn't good in the 2nd half but a large part of the reason we had that big lead in the first half was due to defense.
Obviously this is just one game but I liked what I saw for a large part of this one.
Let's get out of the first weekend 1st.
I do think we would have beat them without Bradshaw and Ugo. They were really damn good without them.
Debating you on a 2:45 minute stretch last night being the one thing that stood out to you doesn't mean I have a low standard. It means it was a small portion of the game and we outscored them by 25 points in the other 37:15. No one was happy with that stretch. We have to improve ourselves so stretches like that don't happen. I was giving you a hard time because that's the one thing you chose to focus on. We just dumped 90 on a top 10 defensive team.
When you look across the landscape of college basketball, you don't feel like we have a chance to make a run at the title based on the team we have now? UNC is the 4th ranked team in the country and we beat them on a neutral floor with a full roster. We had the ball, with a chance to tie 3rd ranked Kansas at the end of regulation with Tre Mitchell playing center against Hunter Dickinson.
I don't know how anyone can look at this team, compare them to the rest of college bball, and not think we have a shot at winning it all this year.
I know this team can win it all. That’s why I want to see more improvement. And I’m not just focused on a 2:45 stretch. We just lost due to fumbling around at the end of regulation at TAMU. I want to see more progress. If you’re happy with where they are then that is great for you. I personally want to see more.
Most impressive part of UK averaging 90 in the sec so far is they are doing it sucking from 3. We have shot like less than 30% from 3 combined in the 3 wins.
Ironically a and m loss best shooting from 3 by far with 39% and 15 makes.
Ironically a and m loss best shooting from 3 by far with 39% and 15 makes.
Yep. We've done it by shooting 58% from 2, only turning it over on 14% of our possessions (something we've done all season long) and by getting to the line a ton (something we haven't done OOC)
"Team is not improving"...........elaborate on that. Defense and rebounding is not where it needs to be. The defense was much better last night though.
Edwards is not improving and defensive rebounding is not improving. If you want to cry about that I will listen. But one bad 2 min stretch that resulted in a double digit WIN (we were only a 5.5 pt favorite) does not matter. Show me a team in the country that is perfect and has zero lapses. You can't. So what exactly are you crying about?
What the hell does your CHC even stand for? As someone who is no fan of calipari, I love this team. Easily my favorite overall team since 2017 and from the top of the roster to the bottom I like this team more. I do think cal will shit the bed in the end with this team however and keep them from achieving what we all know they are capable of.
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You yourself acknowledge two crucial areas that need improvement and then say I'm crying. And no shit no team is perfect. Should we just ignore the obvious stuff that needs to get better? I want to see them win. So along with what you pointed out I'd add in that our perimeter defense as well as our decision making and ball handling under real pressure need to get better or we'll get bounced early and have squandered what is a championship level team.
We probably should have only score 80 so that they wouldn't have dropped so far in KenPom d efficiency.
Wait. I thought you said the problem was the lineup that started the second half. You know that same lineup started the first half too and we got out to a 15-5 lead quickly. Were you not pleased about that? You’re moving the goalposts.
After reading some of your other posts I think it’s pretty clear. You just hate cal real bad and you’re looking to bitch. You told on yourself when you accused people of being relatives of cal. No one was even talking about cal. You’re just jaded dude. The team isn’t complacent. Some of our players are making big strides.
Right... what to take from that... those metrics don't mean much halfway through the season.
Just keep winning and keep improving (especially defensively), so an off night becomes less likely to send us home early again.
Multiple issues that have been the same all season long. Not jaded. Want a championship not a Sweet Sixteen. Not sure why you’re being so touchy and making it personal but whatever. You do you.
no they mean something. It's just that teams are a lot closer to each other than most would like to think.
Whether Miss St has the 9th best or 16th best defense, still a great defense.
It’s definitely wild. I feel like we coulda put 110 hell even 120 on em if we played to our potential. Rob shot badly, DJ had fumblitis in the 2nd half, Reed missed a bunch he normally makes. Tonio missed 3 wide open ones. I don’t expect our guys to make em all but shoo, just a little better from each and that game is an absolute laugher, who cares what they score if you’re dropping that kinda shit on em.It's funny to me how when you visit Rafters after a win, it's almost impossible to tell we won.
I don't see a lot of talk about this, but we just dropped 90 on a team that was #9 in defense according to KenPom
(POST EDITED TO INCLUDE THIS WEEK'S KENPOM RATING OF MISS ST WHICH IS NOW #16 DEFENSIVELY AFTER LAST NIGHT......THANK YOU TO @Oldbluefart FOR POINTING THIS OUT)
I think this team has spoiled us with their offense if we aren't ecstatic about torching a solid defense
This. But some of the people making valid complaints about the defense are making the argument look worse by citing points per game given up stat. Of course, points scored or given up per game largely depend on pace of play. We do need to get better defensively but we will never be among the top 20 in defensive ppg unless Cal slows down the offense. Point differential is what really counts, but mostly in single games.
As I've said before the lack of college experience playing together(we're playing freshmen, lightly used sophomores and two transfers and some of those missed a lot of time with off season injuries) made it foolish for anybody to expect this team to be good defensively the first half of the year. We will have good reason to complain if they're still poor defensively at the end of the year because we have the athleticism and height to be an excellent defensive team. And I do think we're getting better slowly. We held A&M to 40% shooting but our defensive rebounding was so bad it kind of got canceled out. We held MSU to a not good enough to satisfy me 44.9% field goal shooting but we equaled them in rebounding.
I think we're getting there and by the end of the year we could be really good.
That’s what he posted in response to me. I was pointing out what he had done.
This team definitely has the pieces. And you're right, they can beat any team in the country and have shown that when they beat UNC and played KU incredibly close without two key guys. I'd like their chances against anyone.
The problem is doing it six straight games. Going six straight games without going cold from 3, or without having a horrible defensive game. The hard part isn't beating KU or UNC. It's playing the type of game that beats UNC six straight. I'm not confident this team can do that yet.
That said, someone has to win it all, so why not us? I think come March we'll be one of a handful of teams that can do it.
Until Cal finally does something in the postseason again, you're going to have a lot of people doubting him and his teams. Right now we are to one sided and all it takes is a bad shooting game and you will go home in the opening weekend. I'll remain skeptical about all Cal teams going forward until things change.
The problem is, he is so hard headed that it's almost impossible to get him to change things. Especially on defense. We've been seeing the lunge at the 3 point shooter for years. We also do terrible with defending screens. Usually end up with a bad switch or struggle to get through it and leave them wide open. That's when we get to see the lunge that's been a staple of Cal's defenses.
Cal has never had a team with so little fight in them to defend and rebound. That doesn't bode well for the postseason. The regular season is half over and we are running out of time waiting to see improvements in these 2 areas. Hopefully it happens or we will be sitting at home disappointed with another poor finish.
The problem is, he is so hard headed that it's almost impossible to get him to change things. Especially on defense. We've been seeing the lunge at the 3 point shooter for years. We also do terrible with defending screens. Usually end up with a bad switch or struggle to get through it and leave them wide open. That's when we get to see the lunge that's been a staple of Cal's defenses.
Cal has never had a team with so little fight in them to defend and rebound. That doesn't bode well for the postseason. The regular season is half over and we are running out of time waiting to see improvements in these 2 areas. Hopefully it happens or we will be sitting at home disappointed with another poor finish.
They actually don't, they all (KenPom, NET, RPI/BPI, etc.), have average predictive value year to year (use them to fill out your bracket and you'll likely finish in the middle of the pack).
At this point, it is because the 1) the inequity of schedule, 2) few games/little data, 3) coaches experimenting with rotations, and 4) growth/injury (teams are improving quickly or not).
This is why a team can move 7 (or more) positions after just one game.
After conference play it comes down to a teams mean ability and their variance around that (the higher the mean and less the variance, the better), coupled against a one-and-done conference tournament or NCAA tournament platform.
The thing is every team can say the same thing..the difficulty of winning 6 straight games and what if their biggest strength is not clicking that day. There is no dominant team this year. Just look at the AP Poll and this weeks rankings (week 11). Here are how many teams in the poll have 0 or 1 losses in the week 11 poll by year over the last 20 seasons:
2024 - 0
2023 - 3
2022 - 2
2021 - 5
2020 - 6
2019 - 7
2018 - 2
2017 - 6
2016 - 3
2015 - 4
2014 - 8
2013 - 8
2012 - 4
2011 - 8
2010 - 5
2009 - 6
2008 - 10
2007 - 3
2006 - 5
2005 - 5
As you say in your last sentence, why not us?
Average predictive value compared to what exactly?
I don't think any system or human has better predicative value. Do you know of any that consistently outperforms everyone else?
ThePredictionTracker Baseball predicitions
Football ratings, NFL, NCAA Football Basketball Baseball Computer ratings predictions
www.thepredictiontracker.com
All of this is extremely similar.
There's a lot of randomness and luck in a one and done tournament. I think a lot of people realize that Vegas is good at what they do. Systems like Kenpom typically line up pretty well with Vegas.
There's a limit to all of this. This is the best we've got tho. Actually Kenpom has a model diagnostics page and has it broken down by month. It only gets "slightly" better at the end of the month than beginning.
Teams move up and down quickly because there's not some massive gap between teams. Not at the beginning of the season, not at the middle of the season and not at the end. Here's some data from 23
| Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar/Apr | All | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAE (Margin) | 9.29 | 9.04 | 8.78 | 8.71 | 8.83 | 8.93 |
| MAE (Totals) | 13.00 | 12.87 | 12.69 | 12.31 | 12.71 | 12.70 |
| Bias (Totals) | +1.29 | -0.16 | -0.11 | -0.03 | +2.62 | +0.45 |
| Bias (Home Team) | -0.33 | +0.60 | +0.40 | -0.05 | -0.48 | +0.15 |
The schedule should not matter. All of this is adjusted for SOS. Most systems in the beginning account for the few games/little data issue by having data from the previous year (I know Kenpom does this and it doesn't go away completely until Feb). The system also accounts from improvement or getting worse over the season. It's constantly adjusting. If you are ranked 20th and you are predicted to win by 5 in the system and you win by 20, you move up. Because you are likely to be improving and rated too low.
St. Peter's happens to everyone. It's happened to Duke more than once, UNC, Kansas, Michigan St. 16 seeds are starting to beat 1 seeds. It's honestly lucky we didn't lose to a team like St. Peter's before we did. No blue blood is fundamentally immune to being upset like that in the tournament. It happens.
As far as Evansville, what lasting affects did that loss have? Zero. That team was in pretty good shape come March before everything got cancelled. The loss happened, the college basketball laughed at us for a night, and then moved on. It's probably about time people here move on too.
I would love to hire a Coach who loves and supports UK and not the NBA. Give me a Coach who does not patronize the UK fanbase. Give me a Coach who appreciates UK tradition. We currently do not have one.
Everybody that attacked this post can kiss my ass. The issues were as obvious then as they are now. You all just chose to ignore it and attacked people pointing it out instead and now we are back to sucking and no progress was made in that meantime because there was no demand for accountability or improvement. Have a temper tantrum and get this thread deleted, I could care less. This season will have been squandered in part because you babies couldn't handle hearing criticism. Just like your hero. Own it.
For sure. If more people had been manufacturing fake outrage on a message board we’d be 21-2 right now. Own it people. 😂😂😂😂
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