An Early Bowl Projection:

[The-Hack]

And likely meaningless. Has us in the Liberty Bowl.

I’ll give the writer credit. He puts Mizzou in the Citrus at 10-2, noting they have the easiest road, and will be a rare 10-2 exclusion from the playoffs. He also knows the Citrus is (and has been) the “first out” of the NYD6/Playoffs.

College football bowl projections: 2024 preseason predictions, playoff picks

Early pairings for every bowl matchup this season, including the expanded College Football Playoff.

247sports.com

 

[machobland]

I think Mizzou is being vastly overrated. They had a weak schedule last year, played UGA tough and beat Tennessee. That's about the extent of the accomplishments considering Ohio State was down to 3rd stringers for the bowl game.

I can easily see them going 8-4, with loses to Auburn, Bama, TAMU, and Oklahoma.

 

[The-Hack]

I can easily see them going 8-4, with loses to Auburn, Bama, TAMU, and Oklahoma.

Oddly, their fake punt trailing 14-0 to us turned two seasons: it sent us tumbling to 7 wins, and propelled them to the NYD6.

They have Luther Burden, (a former five Star WR still, I think), but their talent otherwise is not overwhelming.

 

[Dead Cat Bounce]

Losing the lead and the g

Oddly, their fake punt trailing 14-0 to us turned two seasons: it sent us tumbling to 7 wins, and propelled them to the NYD6.

Losing the lead and the game to Missouri was a right royal kick in the pants.

 

[Boz]

Lots of disappointments last year; Missouri, USC and Clemson. Easily could have had a 9 or 10 win season.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Oddly, their fake punt trailing 14-0 to us turned two seasons: it sent us tumbling to 7 wins, and propelled them to the NYD6.

They have Luther Burden, (a former five Star WR still, I think), but their talent otherwise is not overwhelming.

The WR on the other side is pretty good too, not Burden good but very good, the QB is a 6 year guy coming off a very successful season. They hit the portal for another RB, don't know if they found a little bowling ball like they had last year that forced you to end up in alot of man coverage because of the number of tackles he broke. If not, then I expect their offense to struggle, QB doesn't have a huge arm, depends on WRs and YAC alot. But I think they lost a lot of players off their defense, they also lost their DC who was pretty good one, to ATM I think but not sure about that. I think Drink is an idiot, they are likely to have a good season because of their schedule. I believe Missouri just gave him a big extension.

 

[gamalielkid]

The WR on the other side is pretty good too, not Burden good but very good, the QB is a 6 year guy coming off a very successful season. They hit the portal for another RB, don't know if they found a little bowling ball like they had last year that forced you to end up in alot of man coverage because of the number of tackles he broke. If not, then I expect their offense to struggle, QB doesn't have a huge arm, depends on WRs and YAC alot. But I think they lost a lot of players off their defense, they also lost their DC who was pretty good one, to ATM I think but not sure about that. I think Drink is an idiot, they are likely to have a good season because of their schedule. I believe Missouri just gave him a big extension.

Good analysis Grumpy. I will say this. I think Mizzou is being ranked because of schedule. I seriously think UK is being overlooked because of schedule. As some have mentioned - most people don't realize that UK was 3 plays away from being 10-3 last year. instead of 7-6. Grumpy has a better idea than any of us in reality - but Vandagriff could be the difference in UK going 9-3 or better this year. If he is as good as some people have indicateed, even with his lack of game experience - this UK team could be one of the surprises of college football! The game I have talked about for months is Ole Miss. I think UK has a huge chance to win this game - if they do - then we would start being listed as a potential playoff contender. The game is early enough to be a factor. Game is September 28th- UK could be 4-1 with win over top 10 team - on the road!

Go Big Blue!

 

[The-Hack]

I think Drink is an idiot,

He seems a tad goofy in interviews, but I haven’t seen obvious gaffs in his play calling.

I know you like the Coach at UF, and know his family, but he made some of the most egregious coaching errors I have seen in years, two years ago. At both the eight minute mark and the 3 minute mark, facing fourth down in his own territory, he had his team go for it.

Yes, I know some analytics show this to be wise, but Kentucky had had a terrible time long-snapping the ball to its kickers, putting one 10 feet over the punters head, and rolling one on the ground on an extra point attempt. Napier would have been far wiser to kick Kentucky deep, hold them
and make them try to snap the ball for a punt. Arguably, Florida’s only advantage at that point in the game was Kentucky’s long-snapper snafus.

But he gifted our spooked long-snapper by going for it on 4th down twice in his own territory in the final eight minutes: Kentucky kicked a field goal to end it, but did not have to punt in the final eight minutes.

A very bizarre series of decisions, indicating an actual disregard for the play on the field, and knowledge of his opponent.

Our long-snappers then and now, have futures spelled “MBA,” “Phd.,” and “JD.”

Our defensive secondary Napier challenged on those 4th downs all had futures spelled “NFL.”

 

[trueblujr2]

Oddly, their fake punt trailing 14-0 to us turned two seasons: it sent us tumbling to 7 wins, and propelled them to the NYD6.

They have Luther Burden, (a former five Star WR still, I think), but their talent otherwise is not overwhelming.

Their QB has been there for about 8 years too.

 

[The-Hack]

Their QB has been there for about 8 years too.

Give him his Social Security and bid him adieu!!

 

[RDF922]

The WR on the other side is pretty good too, not Burden good but very good, the QB is a 6 year guy coming off a very successful season. They hit the portal for another RB, don't know if they found a little bowling ball like they had last year that forced you to end up in alot of man coverage because of the number of tackles he broke. If not, then I expect their offense to struggle, QB doesn't have a huge arm, depends on WRs and YAC alot. But I think they lost a lot of players off their defense, they also lost their DC who was pretty good one, to ATM I think but not sure about that. I think Drink is an idiot, they are likely to have a good season because of their schedule. I believe Missouri just gave him a big extension.

Mizzou DC ended up at LSU.

But great analysis

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

He seems a tad goofy in interviews, but I haven’t seen obvious gaffs in his play calling.

I know you like the Coach at UF, and know his family, but he made some of the most egregious coaching errors I have seen in years, two years ago. At both the eight minute mark and the 3 minute mark, facing fourth down in his own territory, he had his team go for it.

Yes, I know some analytics show this to be wise, but Kentucky had had a terrible time long-snapping the ball to its kickers, putting one 10 feet over the punters head, and rolling one on the ground on an extra point attempt. Napier would have been far wiser to kick Kentucky deep, hold them
and make them try to snap the ball for a punt. Arguably, Florida’s only advantage at that point in the game was Kentucky’s long-snapper snafus.

But he gifted our spooked long-snapper by going for it on 4th down twice in his own territory in the final eight minutes: Kentucky kicked a field goal to end it, but did not have to punt in the final eight minutes.

A very bizarre series of decisions, indicating an actual disregard for the play on the field, and knowledge of his opponent.

Our long-snappers then and now, have futures spelled “MBA,” “Phd.,” and “JD.”

Our defensive secondary Napier challenged on those 4th downs all had futures spelled “NFL.”

Billy certainly has made some mistakes, doesn't matter if I like him or not, he will be lucky to make it to 25 as UF's head coach, or even to the end of 24. He is just stuck in an outdated offense and appears to stubborn to adapt.

As for a particular series, they are all the same, if it works its a great call, if it doesn't it was a dumb call, hind sight is always 20-20.

Good analysis Grumpy. I will say this. I think Mizzou is being ranked because of schedule. I seriously think UK is being overlooked because of schedule. As some have mentioned - most people don't realize that UK was 3 plays away from being 10-3 last year. instead of 7-6. Grumpy has a better idea than any of us in reality - but Vandagriff could be the difference in UK going 9-3 or better this year. If he is as good as some people have indicateed, even with his lack of game experience - this UK team could be one of the surprises of college football! The game I have talked about for months is Ole Miss. I think UK has a huge chance to win this game - if they do - then we would start being listed as a potential playoff contender. The game is early enough to be a factor. Game is September 28th- UK could be 4-1 with win over top 10 team - on the road!

Go Big Blue!

I am sure the schedule is part of it, they have played us really close the last 2 seasons, part our fault and part to their credit. I don't think defensively they are as quick and athletic as the better defenses, but they played sound defense and didn't make many mistakes, but didn't have the athletic ability to overcome mistakes either, just a step slower than the better defensive teams. On offense i their success depends of finding the running threat they had last year. He forced teams to bring a S into the box to stop the run leaving your secondary in man coverages which they were able to take advantage of and thats a tough assignment if you S gets isolated in man against Luther Burden. But they are coming off a program defining season, that had quite a few 6 year sr, so will be interesting to see if they are able to back it up this year. One of the few if not the only SEC team with an easier schedule in 25 than than 24.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Just looked at the projections, and seems he thinks all SEC teams are in a bowl except Vandy, Arky and MSST. I think those teams will struggle getting bowl eligible, but I also think UF, Carolina will struggle getting to 6 wins too. I think AU has a chance to be improved and can get to a bowl this year. but Carolina lost the QB, their 2 best WR and had a couple other transfer out. They are lacking in playmakers on both sides of the ball and hoping for the best at QB at least to me that is how it seems. Beamer's good will from upsetting UT and CU from a couple years back is wearing out. Not sure they can afford to fire him right now, but he isn't near as popular as he was 2 years ago and not making a bowl won't help.

 

[The-Hack]

Do

As for a particular series, they are all the same, if it works its a great call, if it doesn't it was a dumb call, hind sight is always 20-20.

Lol.

Grumpy, you’re better than that!

Your statement is equivalent to saying an extremely unlikely event is “50/50,” . . . because “either it will occur or it will not.”

When a team has repeatedly shown an inability to long-snap on punts and kicks, any Coach worth his salt would pray for an opportunity to make them screw it up again.

Napier did the opposite.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Do

Lol.

Grumpy, you’re better than that!

Your statement is equivalent to saying an extremely unlikely event is “50/50,” . . . because “either it will occur or it will not.”

When a team has repeatedly shown an inability to long-snap on punts and kicks, any Coach worth his salt would pray for an opportunity to make them screw it up again.

Napier did the opposite.

Not if he wasn't sure he could stop you. UF has not been very good in several years, since they won the East with Mullen. For a Florida team they have been slow, not just UF but any Florida team and soft. UF's S&C program should have been embarrassed by some of those DL that wobbled on the field, they were done at half time. Were the chances of getting 3 and out much better than getting a 1st?

 

[EKCAT4YRS]

Bowl projections before even one game has been played lol!

 

[Bluefield88]

I totally forgot OSU lost to Mizzou. I’ll remind my coworkers tomorrow. What a bunch of losers!

 

[The-Hack]

Not if he wasn't sure he could stop you. UF has not been very good in several years, since they won the East with Mullen. For a Florida team they have been slow, not just UF but any Florida team and soft. UF's S&C program should have been embarrassed by some of those DL that wobbled on the field, they were done at half time. Were the chances of getting 3 and out much better than getting a 1st?

Again, Napier went against the odds.

Certain he could stop us?

At the 8:00 minute mark we held a 23-16 lead. Fourteen of those 23 points were provided by a pick six, and another interception by our DE, who returned the ball inside Florida’s 10 yard line. In other words, UF’s offense (and our defense) had been our most effective mode of producing points.

And our offense struggled, finishing 4-14 in Third down conversions, 0-1 in fourth down conversions. Both offenses produced well under 300 total offensive yards for the game, our ground game averaging 1.5 yards per attempt.

So with 8 minutes to go, having his own offense struggling to complete a pass to a player wearing the right uniform, Billy chose to roll the dice using his offense against a defense that had already provided the scoring margin for Kentucky’s touchdown lead.

“We’re the chances of getting a 3 and out much better than getting a first?”

Well, that ignores field position: even had they gotten a first down on either attempt, they were still behind the 50 yard line. Billy asked his offense to do what neither team had managed consistently during the game: make successive first downs.

Inversely, had he punted, it isn’t a simple question of getting a single 3 and out. He could have pinned UK’s offense inside the 15 yard line with more than 8 minutes to go . . . meaning UK would have had to have had successive first downs just to get into field goal range.

By going for it (both times) inside his own territory, Billy left UK in field goal range from their first play from scrimmage. We actually missed a field goal with about 5 minutes to go, but took advantage of Billy’s 2nd field position largess, hitting a field goal to put the lead to 10 points, hence essentially insurmountable.

Again, one of the strangest 4th quarters I have witnessed in 50 plus years of playing/coaching and watching football.

 

[satcheluk]

Again, Napier went against the odds.

Certain he could stop us?

At the 8:00 minute mark we held a 23-16 lead. Fourteen of those 23 points were provided by a pick six, and another interception by our DE, who returned the ball inside Florida’s 10 yard line. In other words, UF’s offense (and our defense) had been our most effective mode of producing points.

And our offense struggled, finishing 4-14 in Third down conversions, 0-1 in fourth down conversions. Both offenses produced well under 300 total offensive yards for the game, our ground game averaging 1.5 yards per attempt.

So with 8 minutes to go, having his own offense struggling to complete a pass to a player wearing the right uniform, Billy chose to roll the dice using his offense against a defense that had already provided the scoring margin for Kentucky’s touchdown lead.

“We’re the chances of getting a 3 and out much better than getting a first?”

Well, that ignores field position: even had they gotten a first down on either attempt, they were still behind the 50 yard line. Billy asked his offense to do what neither team had managed consistently during the game: make successive first downs.

Inversely, had he punted, it isn’t a simple question of getting a single 3 and out. He could have pinned UK’s offense inside the 15 yard line with more than 8 minutes to go . . . meaning UK would have had to have had successive first downs just to get into field goal range.

By going for it (both times) inside his own territory, Billy left UK in field goal range from their first play from scrimmage. We actually missed a field goal with about 5 minutes to go, but took advantage of Billy’s 2nd field position largess, hitting a field goal to put the lead to 10 points, hence essentially insurmountable.

Again, one of the strangest 4th quarters I have witnessed in 50 plus years of playing/coaching and watching football.

I was there. It’s hard to quantify how the crowd plays in to the equation, but the natives were getting restless. Hindsight is 20/20, but I suspect Napier was trying to show confidence in his offense in order to jump start them, as well as keep the boo birds from starting when the punt team ran out. The crowd was vehemently asking to go for it, so he went with gut over analytics and lost.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Again, Napier went against the odds.

Certain he could stop us?

At the 8:00 minute mark we held a 23-16 lead. Fourteen of those 23 points were provided by a pick six, and another interception by our DE, who returned the ball inside Florida’s 10 yard line. In other words, UF’s offense (and our defense) had been our most effective mode of producing points.

And our offense struggled, finishing 4-14 in Third down conversions, 0-1 in fourth down conversions. Both offenses produced well under 300 total offensive yards for the game, our ground game averaging 1.5 yards per attempt.

So with 8 minutes to go, having his own offense struggling to complete a pass to a player wearing the right uniform, Billy chose to roll the dice using his offense against a defense that had already provided the scoring margin for Kentucky’s touchdown lead.

“We’re the chances of getting a 3 and out much better than getting a first?”

Well, that ignores field position: even had they gotten a first down on either attempt, they were still behind the 50 yard line. Billy asked his offense to do what neither team had managed consistently during the game: make successive first downs.

Inversely, had he punted, it isn’t a simple question of getting a single 3 and out. He could have pinned UK’s offense inside the 15 yard line with more than 8 minutes to go . . . meaning UK would have had to have had successive first downs just to get into field goal range.

By going for it (both times) inside his own territory, Billy left UK in field goal range from their first play from scrimmage. We actually missed a field goal with about 5 minutes to go, but took advantage of Billy’s 2nd field position largess, hitting a field goal to put the lead to 10 points, hence essentially insurmountable.

Again, one of the strangest 4th quarters I have witnessed in 50 plus years of playing/coaching and watching football.

I didn't watch the game and don't know the specific circumstances. But it was late in the game, his defense was a poorly conditioned bunch and he felt he had a better chance of getting a first than a stop. But suppose he did punt, got a stop, he had the ball roughly at the same spot on the field with 2 minutes less on the clock. Why else would he have made that call, I don't think he was trying to throw the game. You coached, you know you get a feel for how the game is playing out. Kiffin makes these calls every game and it doesn't always work out.

I am not claiming it was a good choice, he is doing a good job at UF. Just that call is reasonable for a team struggling. Now do I think Kirby would make that call, maybe not today, but he has made some in the past.

 

[The-Hack]

I didn't watch the game and don't know the specific circumstances.

I’d be interested in knowing your opinion after watching the game. I think the whole game is available on YouTube.

Again, we had botched two long snaps . . . a problem that stuck with us most of the season. Our defense had played beautifully, basically scoring our points for us.

Billy Napier seems to be doing well recruiting, I’ll give him that.

The crowd was vehemently asking to go for it, so he went with gut over analytics and lost.

In a game that has been dominated by both defenses, and a mere touchdown deficit, with more than 8 minutes to go, and the ball WELL behind the 50, I have to question the football acumen of the entire UF crowd.

Seriously, both decisions gave us a simple opportunity to kick a field goal to put the game out of reach. We missed the first and hit the second one.

I suspect the natives were restless not because of the actual circumstance on the field, but simply because, “By Gawd, UF should be able to get a first down against Kentucky.”

Again, any such attitude should be tempered by observed reality: we had had no problem defending UF’s passing game: it had gifted us 14 points. We had had a comedy of errors long-snapping the ball, and generally sputtered on offense.

Billy’s two decisions threw his weakest performing unit, his offense, against our best performing unit, our pass defense, and allowed our Key-Stone-Cop-Worthy punting/long-snapping unit to spend last 8.5 minutes breathing easy.

I hope he is as unobservant of actual reality in the 4th quarter this season!!

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

I’d be interested in knowing your opinion after watching the game. I think the whole game is available on YouTube.

Again, we had botched two long snaps . . . a problem that stuck with us most of the season. Our defense had played beautifully, basically scoring our points for us.

Billy Napier seems to be doing well recruiting, I’ll give him that.



In a game that has been dominated by both defenses, and a mere touchdown deficit, with more than 8 minutes to go, and the ball WELL behind the 50, I have to question the football acumen of the entire UF crowd.

Seriously, both decisions gave us a simple opportunity to kick a field goal to put the game out of reach. We missed the first and hit the second one.

I suspect the natives were restless not because of the actual circumstance on the field, but simply because, “By Gawd, UF should be able to get a first down against Kentucky.”

Again, any such attitude should be tempered by observed reality: we had had no problem defending UF’s passing game: it had gifted us 14 points. We had had a comedy of errors long-snapping the ball, and generally sputtered on offense.

Billy’s two decisions threw his weakest performing unit, his offense, against our best performing unit, our pass defense, and allowed our Key-Stone-Cop-Worthy punting/long-snapping unit to spend last 8.5 minutes breathing easy.

I hope he is as unobservant of actual reality in the 4th quarter this season!!

I am not saying it was a good decision, or the right decision just that the decision isn't as far fetched as some think. He isn't the first coach who took a gamble and it didn't work out, Kirby's fake punt in SEC champoinship game stuck with him awhile. But it worked out. I personally hope UF fires him and Kirby hires him as an analysis and he brings Lagway, their QB of the future with him. Not so much we need a QB, but to chap the rear of the UF fans. Plus I would have an inside source for once.