Speculation on Bowl Destination

[The-Hack]

There are only 9 bowl eligible teams in the SEC this year. This means the lowest tier of bowls who are eligible for an SEC team won’t get one, likeliest the Birmingham Bowl, the Independence, the Gasparilla and the Liberty Bowls will not have an SEC team team available.

It looks very possible for the SEC to land 4 teams in NYD6 bowls, with Ole Miss being the only one the Top 4 ranked SEC teams “on the bubble.” They will likely be ranked 10th or 11th by the committee, with Mizzou, Bama and Georgia ranked above them, and securely in NYD6 bowls.

The last of the 12 NYD6 bowl slots will be filled by a G5 program, as none are in shooting range of actually getting ranked in the Top 12 . . . so the highest ranked team among the G5 gets a slot, even if ranked 18th.

All conference Champions in the 5 Power Five conferences get a slot, even if not ranked in the Top 12. All five conferences have Top 12 ranked teams, although the ACC has only one, FSU, as we (very likely) knocked U of L well out of the Top 12.

So, as long as FSU beats U of L in their championship game, and all other conferences are “chalk,” in their title games, the Top 11 ranked teams will join the best of the G5 for the 12 slots in the NYD6 bowks.

I believe Ole Miss and the 3 SEC teams ranked ahead of them all get NYD6 bowl berths.

Citrus has the next pick, and typically chooses. The highest ranked SEC team that did not make the NYD6 bowls.

Citrus would then likely pick LSU.

After the Citrus, the “Group of Six” bowls are filled in consultation with league office, the schools and the bowl committees.

Usually, the best remaining team gets the Tampa/Reliaquest Bowl, meaning Tennessee would play in Tampa on January 1st at noon.

This leaves the remaining 5 bowls from the G6 bowls with only three bowl eligible
SEC teams, aTm at 7-5, UK at 7-5, and Auburn at 6-6.

These bowls are the Gator, the Charlotte Mayo, the Music City, the Texas and the Liberty.

Only the Citrus can (and does) allow repeats. Hence we cannot go to Nashville.

I would assume that the two bowls who get “left out” from among these 5 will be the two lowest paying bowls.

From recollection, alone, I think the Liberty and Mayo Bowls are the lowest paying. That would leave the Gator, the Music City and the Texas Bowl for the three remaining SEC teams.

My best guess is we get the Gator, aTm gets the Texas, and Auburn the Music City bowl.

[Edit With Confirmation of This Year’s Bowl Payouts].

Bowl Payouts:
Citrus . . . . . . . . . . $8,224,578
Reliaquest . . . . . . $6,400,000
Texas . . . . . . . . . . .$6,400,000
Music City . . . . . . $5,700,000
Gator/TS . . . . . . . .$5,350,000
Duke’s Mayo . . . . .$4,780,461
Liberty. . . . . . . . . . $4,700,000

College Football Playoff Payouts 2023-2024

How much do teams make for the College Football Playoff? We've got the 2023-24 revenue distribution plan plus payouts from past years.

businessofcollegesports.com

 

[bthaunert]

Good breakdown. The Gator is the SEC vs ACC/Big10. Any thoughts on who the opposing team could be?

 

[The-Hack]

Good breakdown. The Gator is the SEC vs ACC/Big10. Any thoughts on who the opposing team could be?

Clemson. But I have not done their conference breakdown, so it’s shear guess.

 

[Nuke99m]

Just curious, if Fla St goes to the playoffs, doesn't UL get Orange bowl?

 

[The-Hack]

Just curious, if Fla St goes to the playoffs, doesn't UL get Orange bowl?

I saw that projected, so maybe.

If so, that could move everyone down a slot in my projections for SEC teams.

If UT doesn’t do Tampa, they will insist on Jacksonville as they did in 2019.

But if Ole Miss is 10th, instead of 11th, they would not get bumped down to Citrus by U of L’s inclusion.

 

[Cardinals19702]

Just curious, if Fla St goes to the playoffs, doesn't UL get Orange bowl?

Yes unless they really drop Louisville and NC State jumps us. I don’t see that happening since we beat NC State head to head and will be playing an extra game. In reality Louisville needs to beat FSU to assure an Orange Bowl berth.

 

[The-Hack]

Yes unless they really drop Louisville and NC State jumps us. I don’t see that happening since we beat NC State head to head and will be playing an extra game. In reality Louisville needs to beat FSU to assure an Orange Bowl berth.

Wow.. If the Cards drop two in a row, who knows.

In the past, our number two went to the Sugar when Bama made the playoffs, but the SEC’s number two was always highly ranked.

 

[The-Hack]

Bump

 

[entropy13]

Clemson. But I have not done their conference breakdown, so it’s shear guess.

Blech. Would prefer a different opponent, JMO.

 

[The-Hack]

Blech. Would prefer a different opponent, JMO.

I just want to avoid Duke. We all know what the conversation by the broadcast crew would focus upon if we get Duke.

 

[entropy13]

I just want to avoid Duke. We all know what the conversation by the broadcast crew would focus upon if we get Duke.

Probably wouldn't be Duke, but oddly the bball crosstalk wouldn't bother me. 🤷🏻‍♂️ There'd also be crosstalk if we played UNC.

 

[The-Hack]

Just curious, if Fla St goes to the playoffs, doesn't UL get Orange bowl?

Just found it in writing.

Yes, the highest ranked ACC team, even if not Top 12, gets the Orange Bowl slot.

“The game will be televised on ESPN and will feature a matchup between the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) Champion (or the highest-ranked ACC team if the champion is in the playoff).”

90th Capital One Orange Bowl to Kick Off at 4 P.M. ET on Saturday, December 30, 2023

MATCHUP AT HARD ROCK STADIUM WILL FEATURE ACC VS. BIG TEN/SEC/NOTRE DAME MIAMI LAKES, Fla. (www.orangebowl.org) – The 90th Capital One Orange Bowl will kick off on Saturday, December 30, 2023 at 4 p.m. ET. at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. The game will be televised…

www.orangebowl.org

 

[The-Hack]

Probably wouldn't be Duke, but oddly the bball crosstalk wouldn't bother me. 🤷🏻‍♂️ There'd also be crosstalk if we played UNC.

Whenever I watch 2019 VPI bowl highlights, I leave the sound off, so I don’t have to hear about the retirement of their DC.

These crews get stuck on a theme and run it into the damn ground.

 

[entropy13]

Whenever I watch 2019 VPI bowl highlights, I leave the sound off, so I don’t have to hear about the retirement of their DC.

These crews get stuck on a theme and run it into the damn ground.

I can't believe you turned the volume down on Beth Mowins and her sexy, silky-smooth voice.😡

 

[The-Hack]

I can't believe you turned the volume down on Beth Mowins and her sexy, silky-smooth voice.😡

It does a little something for me!

Like finger nails down a blackboard!

 

[Nuke99m]

I just want to avoid Duke. We all know what the conversation by the broadcast crew would focus upon if we get Duke.

I know what you mean but I wouldn't mind playing a coachless team with QB issues. Hoping for Taxslayer Bowl but I did have fun in Charlotte last time we were there.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

Very nice write up. Seems all the media predictors are saying mayo bowl. I enjoyed Charlotte a few years ago but unfortunately today is a much different world with opt outs etc. After last year, sadly I'm on the fence which is something I never thought I'd say.

 

[R.O.T.Muckinfush]

Also read liberty bowl vs Texas tech

 

[Johnfarrel]

There are only 9 bowl eligible teams in the SEC this year. This means the lowest tier of bowls who are eligible for an SEC team won’t get one, likeliest the Birmingham Bowl, the Independence, the Gasparilla and the Liberty Bowls will not have an SEC team team available.

It looks very possible for the SEC to land 4 teams in NYD6 bowls, with Ole Miss being the only one the Top 4 ranked SEC teams “on the bubble.” They will likely be ranked 10th or 11th by the committee, with Mizzou, Bama and Georgia ranked above them, and securely in NYD6 bowls.

The last of the 12 NYD6 bowl slots will be filled by a G5 program, as none are in shooting range of actually getting ranked in the Top 12 . . . so the highest ranked team among the G5 gets a slot, even if ranked 18th.

All conference Champions in the 5 Power Five conferences get a slot, even if not ranked in the Top 12. All five conferences have Top 12 ranked teams, although the ACC has only one, FSU, as we (very likely) knocked U of L well out of the Top 12.

So, as long as FSU beats U of L in their championship game, and all other conferences are “chalk,” in their title games, the Top 11 ranked teams will join the best of the G5 for the 12 slots in the NYD6 bowks.

I believe Ole Miss and the 3 SEC teams ranked ahead of them all get NYD6 bowl berths.

Citrus has the next pick, and typically chooses. The highest ranked SEC team that did not make the NYD6 bowls.

Citrus would then likely pick LSU.

After the Citrus, the “Group of Six” bowls are filled in consultation with league office, the schools and the bowl committees.

Usually, the best remaining team gets the Tampa/Reliaquest Bowl, meaning Tennessee would play in Tampa on January 1st at noon.

This leaves the remaining 5 bowls from the G6 bowls with only three bowl eligible
SEC teams, aTm at 7-5, UK at 7-5, and Auburn at 6-6.

These bowls are the Gator, the Charlotte Mayo, the Music City, the Texas and the Liberty.

Only the Citrus can (and does) allow repeats. Hence we cannot go to Nashville.

I would assume that the two bowls who get “left out” from among these 5 will be the two lowest paying bowls.

From recollection, alone, I think the Liberty and Mayo Bowls are the lowest paying. That would leave the Gator, the Music City and the Texas Bowl for the three remaining SEC teams.

My best guess is we get the Gator, aTm gets the Texas, and Auburn the Music City bowl.

[Edit With Confirmation of This Year’s Bowl Payouts].
Thanks for doing the work to clear things up.
Bowl Payouts:
Citrus . . . . . . . . . . $8,224,578
Reliaquest . . . . . . $6,400,000
Texas . . . . . . . . . . .$6,400,000
Music City . . . . . . $5,700,000
Gator/TS . . . . . . . .$5,350,000
Duke’s Mayo . . . . .$4,780,461
Liberty. . . . . . . . . . $4,700,000

https://businessofcolle

[QUOTE="The-Hack, post: 12345508,...me, only additional expenses covered.[/QUOTE]

 

[bthaunert]

Very nice write up. Seems all the media predictors are saying mayo bowl. I enjoyed Charlotte a few years ago but unfortunately today is a much different world with opt outs etc. After last year, sadly I'm on the fence which is something I never thought I'd say.

Sounds like Leary is going to play though, which is our biggest need. We can fill the void to a degree at other positions, but if Leary was out, our backup QB slot is not good.

 

[billoliver40]

My uneducated guess is the Mayo Bowl against Duke.
Seems like the media thing is too good for the conference to jgnore....UK vs Duke only in football and Elko apparently getting the nod for the aTm slot over Stoops.

Made for TV stuff.

 

[rick64]

Thought I'd read somewhere that UK has already said "no thanks" basically if it's the Music City Bowl.

 

[The-Hack]

Thought I'd read somewhere that UK has already said "no thanks" basically if it's the Music City Bowl.

Other than Citrus, there are no repeats allowed by the conference in their contracts with the "Group of 6" bowls.

 

[howercat]

So has to happen in order for UK to go to gator bowl?

 

[maysvilleky]

Sounds like Leary is going to play though, which is our biggest need. We can fill the void to a degree at other positions, but if Leary was out, our backup QB slot is not good.

Question is whether Stoops feels the need to play a backup to try to prevent them from entering the portal.

 

[entropy13]

So has to happen in order for UK to go to gator bowl?

4 SEC teams in "NY6" bowls. If it's only 3, then better get some sammiches prepped for all that mayo.

 

[LosGatos]

So has to happen in order for UK to go to gator bowl?

Ole Miss gets a NYD bowl invite. There are a few ways that could happen. IMO the most likely is for FSU to beat UL but in a very close game. If so, FSU would drop out of the CFP but still be the conference champ and thus get the Orange bowl invite. UL would not get a NYD invite and thus Ole Miss, at 11 in the poll, would get a NYD bowl.

 

[BBBLazing]

Question is whether Stoops feels the need to play a backup to try to prevent them from entering the portal.

if they are back ups why do we care?

 

[crashtestdummy]

The Bubble Guts Port a John.....Ty - D - Bowl

 

[3632]

Seems like UT thinks they are doing gator.

 

[PensacolaBlue]

We’re going to the mayonnaise bowl.

 

[CB3UK]

Yeah the Dukes Mayo Bowl seems all but assured

 

[Freetaxreturn]

I can't believe you turned the volume down on Beth Mowins and her sexy, silky-smooth voice.😡

🤣🤣🤣 you caught that 13 ! She is the best 🍺

 

[cats2010]

Just curious, if Fla St goes to the playoffs, doesn't UL get Orange bowl?

Yes and Ohio State. Assuming Ohio state brings their game, that will likely be an embarrassing game for UofL. But have thought other times in the past as well and was surprised when it didn’t happen so will see.

 

[The-Hack]

Seems like UT thinks they are doing gator.

If Ole Miss isn’t NYD6, then you can back them into Citrus, LSU the Reliaquest, UT the TS Gator, UK to Charlotte, A & M the Texas Bowl, Auburn the MCB.

Liberty is the only Group of 6 that gets left without an SEC team, if the SEC drops the lower paying bowl - - - which only makes sense!

 

[bthaunert]

Question is whether Stoops feels the need to play a backup to try to prevent them from entering the portal.

I doubt it. If your starting QB doesn’t opt out, you play him. Your playing to win the game.

 

[BigBlueManSouthCentralKY]

Yeah the Dukes Mayo Bowl seems all but assured

That is what I read this morning.

 

[Cardinals19702]

Seen this while looking up something else

Kentucky Bowl Projections​

• Kyle Bonagura (ESPN): Duke’s Mayo Bowl; Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte (NC); vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets; Dec. 27th on ESPN
• Mark Schlabach (ESPN): Duke’s Mayo Bowl; Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte (NC); vs. Virginia Tech Hokies; Dec. 27th on ESPN
• Jerry Palm (CBS): TaxAct Texas Bowl; NRG Stadium in Houston (TX); vs. Kansas State Wildcats; Dec. 27th on ESPN
• Brad Crawford (247 Sports): Duke’s Mayo Bowl; Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte (NC); vs. Duke Blue Devils; Dec. 27th on ESPN
• Zac Al-Khateeb (The Tennessean): Music City Bowl; Nissan Stadium in Nashville (TN); vs. Wisconsin Badgers; Dec. 30th on ABC
• Steven Lassan (Athlon Sports): Duke’s Mayo Bowl; Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte (NC); vs. Duke Blue Devils; Dec. 27th on ESPN
• Fox Sports Liberty Bowl Kentucky vs Kansas State
• USA Today - Music City Bowl - Maryland vs Kentucky
• CollegeFootballNetwork-Music City Bowl- Wisconsin vs Kentucky
• CollegeFootballNews- Duke’s Mayo Bowl - UNC vs Kentucky

 

[R.O.T.Muckinfush]

Sick of playing acc and big 10 teams. Would rather play in Texas or liberty bowl.

 

[Soupbean]

There are only 9 bowl eligible teams in the SEC this year. This means the lowest tier of bowls who are eligible for an SEC team won’t get one, likeliest the Birmingham Bowl, the Independence, the Gasparilla and the Liberty Bowls will not have an SEC team team available.

It looks very possible for the SEC to land 4 teams in NYD6 bowls, with Ole Miss being the only one the Top 4 ranked SEC teams “on the bubble.” They will likely be ranked 10th or 11th by the committee, with Mizzou, Bama and Georgia ranked above them, and securely in NYD6 bowls.

The last of the 12 NYD6 bowl slots will be filled by a G5 program, as none are in shooting range of actually getting ranked in the Top 12 . . . so the highest ranked team among the G5 gets a slot, even if ranked 18th.

All conference Champions in the 5 Power Five conferences get a slot, even if not ranked in the Top 12. All five conferences have Top 12 ranked teams, although the ACC has only one, FSU, as we (very likely) knocked U of L well out of the Top 12.

So, as long as FSU beats U of L in their championship game, and all other conferences are “chalk,” in their title games, the Top 11 ranked teams will join the best of the G5 for the 12 slots in the NYD6 bowks.

I believe Ole Miss and the 3 SEC teams ranked ahead of them all get NYD6 bowl berths.

Citrus has the next pick, and typically chooses. The highest ranked SEC team that did not make the NYD6 bowls.

Citrus would then likely pick LSU.

After the Citrus, the “Group of Six” bowls are filled in consultation with league office, the schools and the bowl committees.

Usually, the best remaining team gets the Tampa/Reliaquest Bowl, meaning Tennessee would play in Tampa on January 1st at noon.

This leaves the remaining 5 bowls from the G6 bowls with only three bowl eligible
SEC teams, aTm at 7-5, UK at 7-5, and Auburn at 6-6.

These bowls are the Gator, the Charlotte Mayo, the Music City, the Texas and the Liberty.

Only the Citrus can (and does) allow repeats. Hence we cannot go to Nashville.

I would assume that the two bowls who get “left out” from among these 5 will be the two lowest paying bowls.

From recollection, alone, I think the Liberty and Mayo Bowls are the lowest paying. That would leave the Gator, the Music City and the Texas Bowl for the three remaining SEC teams.

My best guess is we get the Gator, aTm gets the Texas, and Auburn the Music City bowl.

[Edit With Confirmation of This Year’s Bowl Payouts].

Bowl Payouts:
Citrus . . . . . . . . . . $8,224,578
Reliaquest . . . . . . $6,400,000
Texas . . . . . . . . . . .$6,400,000
Music City . . . . . . $5,700,000
Gator/TS . . . . . . . .$5,350,000
Duke’s Mayo . . . . .$4,780,461
Liberty. . . . . . . . . . $4,700,000

College Football Playoff Payouts 2023-2024

How much do teams make for the College Football Playoff? We've got the 2023-24 revenue distribution plan plus payouts from past years.

businessofcollegesports.com

Damn Hack what do we owe your for this? Is there a tip jar?