Aike’s getting closer to meaning something model update - 11/23/24

[Aike]

Here’s how things are looking 5 games in. Still some pretty gaudy numbers from several teams. Thankfully we’re one of them, so seems worth reporting.

Reminder that 6 is a perfect score in this model.

1. Gonzaga 5.133
2. Auburn 5.128
3. Houston 4.16
4. Tennessee 3.95
5. Cincinnati 3.81
6. Kentucky 3.72
7. Duke 3.57
8. Pittsburgh 3.24
9. UConn 3.10
10. Penn St 3.08
11. Marquette 2.77
12. Mississippi St 2.75
13. BYU 2.74
14. Kansas 2.73
15. Ohio St 2.61
16. St John’s 2.48
17. North Carolina 2.46
18. Baylor 2.244
19. Texas Tech 2.243
20. Alabama 2.23
21. Michigan 2.13
22. Nevada 1.85
23. Xavier 1.80
24. Memphis 1.77
25. Florida 1.75
26. Vandy 1.74
29. Arkansas 1.58
30. Indiana 1.55
33. Missouri 1.539
34. Mississippi 1.537
41. Texas 1.30
42. Oklahoma 1.26
46. Louisville 1.12
48. Georgia 1.11
49. Texas A&M 1.09

 

[HerrosHeroes]

Here’s how things are looking 5 games in. Still some pretty gaudy numbers from several teams. Thankfully we’re one of them, so seems worth reporting.

Reminder that 6 is a perfect score in this model.

1. Gonzaga 5.133
2. Auburn 5.128
3. Houston 4.16
4. Tennessee 3.95
5. Cincinnati 3.81
6. Kentucky 3.72
7. Duke 3.57
8. Pittsburgh 3.24
9. UConn 3.10
10. Penn St 3.08
11. Marquette 2.77
12. Mississippi St 2.75
13. BYU 2.74
14. Kansas 2.73
15. Ohio St 2.61
16. St John’s 2.48
17. North Carolina 2.46
18. Baylor 2.244
19. Texas Tech 2.243
20. Alabama 2.23
21. Michigan 2.13
22. Nevada 1.85
23. Xavier 1.80
24. Memphis 1.77
25. Florida 1.75
26. Vandy 1.74
29. Arkansas 1.58
30. Indiana 1.55
33. Missouri 1.539
34. Mississippi 1.537
41. Texas 1.30
42. Oklahoma 1.26
46. Louisville 1.12
48. Georgia 1.11
49. Texas A&M 1.09

You do you Aike! Love it!
I see the Zags up there at #1. Man Im so excited for that gm in a few weeks!

 

[Aike]

You do you Aike! Love it!
I see the Zags up there at #1. Man Im so excited for that gm in a few weeks!

Could be something special.

 

[Montana81]

Gotta be a lot more fun to do this now that we have a coach that places value on more of the areas that impact the rankings.

 

[Short-Dawg-69]

Gotta be a lot more fun to do this now that we have a coach that places value on more of the areas that impact the rankings.

Good point and agree

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Look at this guy, talking in the 3rd person now?! This model has gone to your head, man.

 

[Aike]

Look at this guy, talking in the 3rd person now?! This model has gone to your head, man.

I can’t even hear you right now

 

[Aike]

Gotta be a lot more fun to do this now that we have a coach that places value on more of the areas that impact the rankings.

Cal had us in the mix quite a bit, but it definitely hasn’t been fun watching us fail to live up to our potential these past few years.

We were up to number 2 last year after we drilled Miami, and Cal gradually squirted all of that away.

 

[BC_Wader]

Appreciate the work @Aike. We're set to make some serious noise in your rankings in short order if it all plays out right.

 

[Fox2monk]

Here’s how things are looking 5 games in. Still some pretty gaudy numbers from several teams. Thankfully we’re one of them, so seems worth reporting.

Reminder that 6 is a perfect score in this model.

1. Gonzaga 5.133
2. Auburn 5.128
3. Houston 4.16
4. Tennessee 3.95
5. Cincinnati 3.81
6. Kentucky 3.72
7. Duke 3.57
8. Pittsburgh 3.24
9. UConn 3.10
10. Penn St 3.08
11. Marquette 2.77
12. Mississippi St 2.75
13. BYU 2.74
14. Kansas 2.73
15. Ohio St 2.61
16. St John’s 2.48
17. North Carolina 2.46
18. Baylor 2.244
19. Texas Tech 2.243
20. Alabama 2.23
21. Michigan 2.13
22. Nevada 1.85
23. Xavier 1.80
24. Memphis 1.77
25. Florida 1.75
26. Vandy 1.74
29. Arkansas 1.58
30. Indiana 1.55
33. Missouri 1.539
34. Mississippi 1.537
41. Texas 1.30
42. Oklahoma 1.26
46. Louisville 1.12
48. Georgia 1.11
49. Texas A&M 1.09

Love the title.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

Could be something special.

I honestly think UK and the Zags are 1/2 and its everyone else after that, maybe UCONN

 

[Fox2monk]

Here’s how things are looking 5 games in. Still some pretty gaudy numbers from several teams. Thankfully we’re one of them, so seems worth reporting.

Reminder that 6 is a perfect score in this model.

1. Gonzaga 5.133
2. Auburn 5.128
3. Houston 4.16
4. Tennessee 3.95
5. Cincinnati 3.81
6. Kentucky 3.72
7. Duke 3.57
8. Pittsburgh 3.24
9. UConn 3.10
10. Penn St 3.08
11. Marquette 2.77
12. Mississippi St 2.75
13. BYU 2.74
14. Kansas 2.73
15. Ohio St 2.61
16. St John’s 2.48
17. North Carolina 2.46
18. Baylor 2.244
19. Texas Tech 2.243
20. Alabama 2.23
21. Michigan 2.13
22. Nevada 1.85
23. Xavier 1.80
24. Memphis 1.77
25. Florida 1.75
26. Vandy 1.74
29. Arkansas 1.58
30. Indiana 1.55
33. Missouri 1.539
34. Mississippi 1.537
41. Texas 1.30
42. Oklahoma 1.26
46. Louisville 1.12
48. Georgia 1.11
49. Texas A&M 1.09

Wonder if Pitt will be a dark horse this year?

 

[Aike]

Wonder if Pitt will be a dark horse this year?

Off to a good start anyway

 

[Dead Cat Bounce]

Aike, I’d be curious to know what rating systems aside from yours you believe are most predictively accurate. Also, wasn’t there a composite site that listed your ratings alongside others? I thought it was Massey but I can’t find the same composite page there that I remember from before.

 

[Aike]

Aike, I’d be curious to know what rating systems aside from yours you believe are most predictively accurate. Also, wasn’t there a composite site that listed your ratings alongside others? I thought it was Massey but I can’t find the same composite page there that I remember from before.

Massey Composite Index

I was included in this in previous seasons, but I haven’t been taking the time to publish my results recently.

To punt a bit, I would say that all models are basically different data points, so I think this composite method is a great way of looking at things.

As far as better or worse than mine, I optimize for the tournament in a way that most don’t, so I think mine is slightly better at predicting results in tournament games.

Also, lots of the early season models use a certain amount of guesswork. That has become more challenging with the flood of players transferring each season, imo.

For that reason, I think my model has a sweet spot around midseason heading into conference play. I have a better grasp of how good or bad some of the mid majors are - the ones who spend November/December on the road in hostile environments.

By around February, everyone kind of catches up. It’s hard to get much of an edge over Kenpom, or Sagarin, or Vegas by the time everyone is crunching only current season data.

 

[Aike]

I honestly think UK and the Zags are 1/2 and its everyone else after that, maybe UCONN

Could be. Lot of basketball left to play but it’s shaping up to be a fun season.

 

[Dead Cat Bounce]

Massey Composite Index

I was included in this in previous seasons, but I haven’t been taking the time to publish my results recently.

To punt a bit, I would say that all models are basically different data points, so I think this composite method is a great way of looking at things.

As far as better or worse than mine, I optimize for the tournament in a way that most don’t, so I think mine is slightly better at predicting results in tournament games.

Also, lots of the early season models use a certain amount of guesswork. That has become more challenging with the flood of players transferring each season, imo.

For that reason, I think my model has a sweet spot around midseason heading into conference play. I have a better grasp of how good or bad some of the mid majors are - the ones who spend November/December on the road in hostile environments.

By around February, everyone kind of catches up. It’s hard to get much of an edge over Kenpom, or Sagarin, or Vegas by the time everyone is crunching only current season data.

Thanks. I’m grateful for this thoughtful reply.

 

[EliteBlue]

As always, great work, Aike.

Looks like statistically we should roll through Clemson unscathed to set up another battle of top 5 undefeateds. Looking forward to it.

 

[Pgreene1644]

It’s pretty easy to know what we would have been like because Cal pretty much has the team we would have had.

 

[runt#69]

Great model, thanks for the update, as always!

 

[Aike]

As always, great work, Aike.

Looks like statistically we should roll through Clemson unscathed to set up another battle of top 5 undefeateds. Looking forward to it.

Clemson will be our first true road game though?

I’ll need to check how they’re modeling. Don’t have it in front of me.

 

[Aike]

It’s pretty easy to know what we would have been like because Cal pretty much has the team we would have had.

Arkansas isn’t bad, and I would expect them to play lights out a time or two. Hopefully not against us.

 

[kennyskywalker34]

Cal

Arkansas isn’t bad, and I would expect them to play lights out a time or two. Hopefully not against us.

Cal's last several teams have played lights out 3-4 games a season. UK had at least 2 big time wins each of the last few years. Only to follow the wins up with terrible losses.
I definitely think UK beats them, but I think it will be a close game. Hope I'm wrong and it's a 20 point blowout.
@Aike since you been doing this. How many of you're top 10 teams when the regular season ended have made the final 4?

 

[Aike]

Cal
Cal's last several teams have played lights out 3-4 games a season. UK had at least 2 big time wins each of the last few years. Only to follow the wins up with terrible losses.
I definitely think UK beats them, but I think it will be a close game. Hope I'm wrong and it's a 20 point blowout.
@Aike since you been doing this. How many of you're top 10 teams when the regular season ended have made the final 4?

Would have to go back and look, but it happens pretty routinely. The champion has always come from the top 10 since I’ve been doing this. Usually the champ is in the top few teams.

To be fair, there is normally at least one surprise FF team, but often it was a team that was trending really well over the last month of the season.

 

[IL Wildcat]

Could be something special.

Yeah, that's gonna be a really tough game for these Cats, maybe the toughest game of the entire season.

 

[kennyskywalker34]

Would have to go back and look, but it happens pretty routinely. The champion has always come from the top 10 since I’ve been doing this. Usually the champ is in the top few teams.

To be fair, there is normally at least one surprise FF team, but often it was a team that was trending really well over the last month of the season.

Good stuff. I always look forward to it. Yeah there is almost always one surprise final 4 team and some years a couple.
That's what makes March Madness the greatest sporting event IMO.

 

[Aike]

Good stuff. I always look forward to it. Yeah there is almost always one surprise final 4 team and some years a couple.
That's what makes March Madness the greatest sporting event IMO.

Absolutely. That’s part of why it’s so fun to try to predict this thing - because nobody really can.

You can just hope to do a little better than the next guy, and one random play in the first round can wreck your whole bracket.

 

[Richard Cory]

Here’s how things are looking 5 games in. Still some pretty gaudy numbers from several teams. Thankfully we’re one of them, so seems worth reporting.

Reminder that 6 is a perfect score in this model.

1. Gonzaga 5.133
2. Auburn 5.128
3. Houston 4.16
4. Tennessee 3.95
5. Cincinnati 3.81
6. Kentucky 3.72
7. Duke 3.57
8. Pittsburgh 3.24
9. UConn 3.10
10. Penn St 3.08
11. Marquette 2.77
12. Mississippi St 2.75
13. BYU 2.74
14. Kansas 2.73
15. Ohio St 2.61
16. St John’s 2.48
17. North Carolina 2.46
18. Baylor 2.244
19. Texas Tech 2.243
20. Alabama 2.23
21. Michigan 2.13
22. Nevada 1.85
23. Xavier 1.80
24. Memphis 1.77
25. Florida 1.75
26. Vandy 1.74
29. Arkansas 1.58
30. Indiana 1.55
33. Missouri 1.539
34. Mississippi 1.537
41. Texas 1.30
42. Oklahoma 1.26
46. Louisville 1.12
48. Georgia 1.11
49. Texas A&M 1.09

got any of them model updates?

I'm curious what all these feast week matchups have done for your model. I have to think this week was a smorgasbord of good data points not seen in a typical preconference game week. Regardless, thanks for sharing your work with us.

 

[BBUK]