Noted, Mississippi State's NET fell from 30 to 31, taking a QUAD 1 win away from UK, for the time being. Otherwise, the SEC has seven bids secured.
SEC Net Ratings
SEC Net Ratings
7 Locks in the SEC; The Rest Have Fallen Off
- Thread starter KA4Prez
- Start date
I learned not to care about NET, quad one, or any other metric after St. Peter's stole UK's lunch money a few years ago as a 15 seed.
Tell me again why any of it matters as much as we keep thinking it does when there's no elite team this year? We should have learned after the 2018 Kansas State meltdown, followed by that 2019 Auburn meltdown. In both cases, there was a wide-open road to the Final Four and UK crapped the bed against rosters without any real NBA players.
Tell me again why any of it matters as much as we keep thinking it does when there's no elite team this year? We should have learned after the 2018 Kansas State meltdown, followed by that 2019 Auburn meltdown. In both cases, there was a wide-open road to the Final Four and UK crapped the bed against rosters without any real NBA players.
Last edited:
It does matter because large samples matter. You want to be a 2 or 3 seed, not a 4 or 5 seed.
I think it obviously has more to do with actually being talented than anything else. That's why the better teams usually pass through the gauntlet. In 2011, 2014, and this year, we have the talent, regardless of regular season success or lack thereof. In 2016 and 2018, we just weren't as good and were pretty one-dimensional in both seasons.
This team could take down any of the 1 seeds in the Sweet Sixteen, or they could get their chops busted in the first round. Sample size doesn't matter when you have two top ten picks (Sheppard and Dillingham) and a third guy who is an All-American (Reeves).
According to KSR, Scott Van Pelt did a story on how the Big 12 has figured out a way to manipulate the NET. Apparently the NET weighs heavily on blowout wins which the Big 12 did in their preseason cupcake games. Now the conference is rated so high that they can beat themselves up without being dinged heavily for it. That is why despite having 4 teams ranked they may get 9 of their 13 teams in. On the other hand the SEC has 6 teams ranked and only project 7 teams in.
Mississippi State is still a quad 1 win. 1-75 on the road is considered a quad 1 win.
The SEC also has two AWFUL teams in Vanderbilt and Missouri, and three more very average teams.
Everyone in the Big 12 besides West Virginia and Oklahoma State racked up non-conference wins.
Like them to beat South Carolina. Hopefully they don't trip up at A&M. If they can win those two, should finish top 30.
Nate Oats knows this too. He understands that padding a lead late helps his team’s ranking. Of course, none of this matters in the tournament. Alabama has eight losses, one OOC win outside of guarantee games, has beaten ONE team away from home that is projected to make the tournament. But they are #6 in NET
If we're playhing by Big10/Big12/ACC rules.. then LSU and Ole Miss get a pass because the conference was *checks playbook* so good top to bottom. Is that the right caveat? That losses don't matter when every team is so good?
If you ask me, it's at LEAST an 8 team league, with room for a 9th if TA&M or LSU can win some games at the end. You know, if we play by the rules that a conference like the Big10 adheres to.
If you ask me, it's at LEAST an 8 team league, with room for a 9th if TA&M or LSU can win some games at the end. You know, if we play by the rules that a conference like the Big10 adheres to.
I guess they're figuring this stuff out while Cal watches "Little House"
The NET is useless. Auburn is 1-7 in quad 1 wins, yet they are somehow 7th in the net. They are 3 spots behind Uconn who is 9-3 in quad 1 games.
If LSU can win @Vandy, @Arkansas and Missouri they will finish 10-8 in the SEC that puts them in play.
It doesn't help they Big 12 either since they typically get the most teams in and most fail to make it out of the 1st weekend.
This assumes that the number of teams in a conference ranked by the AP is a meaningful metric though. The poll has been around forever, so most of us have conditioned ourselves to care about it as fans, but it’s really just the aggregated opinions of a group of a group of journalists. I wouldn’t necessarily say they’re horrible at their jobs because most of the time, the clear best teams will be somewhere in the top portion of their rankings.
25 teams is a bit of an arbitrary cutoff though. There’s often not a ton of difference between say, teams 20-40, and there’s 68 teams that make the tournament. There’s also the possibility the a conference may just be top heavy with a lot of dropoff at the bottom (which I’d argue the SEC is this year). The NET may not be perfect, but no single method is. I just don’t think the SEC has that much to complain about.
Auburn's a really good bet to get knocked out early in March because they are overseeded.
And AU will be seeded lower due to that. I think committee will point to 1 quad 1 win and punish them.
Totally agree. Something is wrong with the metrics when a team is 1-7 against quad 1 and is ranked 7th.
I do not know about all that. I would consider UCF 15-12 and Cinn. 16-12 as bad. Look at these teams record v/s Top 25 teams :
Oklahoma - 2-6 (they are very overrated)
Texas - 2-7
K-State - 3-6
UCF - 3-6
Cinn. - 3-7
So while they may get a lot of teams in, saying the SEC has a lot of awful teams, the bottom of the Big 12 are not world beaters. Even Oklahoma (the highest regarded team of the ones I listed) has been awful v/s ranked teams.
SEC has not been great, but guess who is 4-2 v/s the Top 25 ? UK. Bama 2-6. Net is BS to an extent, Bama being so high up and only being 2-6, while UK is 4-2 and blasted Bama, them being ranked ahead of UK is terrible. It is all fine and dandy to play several ranked teams, but you have to beat some for the Net to work. Bama 2-6 is why it is not. Another stat, UK is 6-3 on the road, .5 game behind SC at 7-3 for best in the SEC. UK gave Florida and Auburn their only home loss on the year.
Last edited:
Maybe the rest of the SEC should play Cal’s cupcake schedule instead of all these good teams in Holiday Tournaments.
It evened out on quad 1 wins. Lost the quad 1 against them earlier in the year but picked up one for beating them again.
Yep...the person I replied to shared that info...makes sense.
Assuming the committee is full of competent individuals, my guess is Auburn ends up getting a substantially worse seed than their net rankings indicate because of that stat. Like a 4 or 5.
Is there any reason we can’t have CFP esque weekly releases so we don’t have random last second criteria being used by the committee and there aren’t any massive surprises in the top 4 or so seed lines?
It's a good idea, but my guess is that the biggest issue is that there are games that impact the standings 7 days a week and there is probably a lot of movement. College basketball might have 15-20 top 25 teams lose in a week period where college football might have 5. There are just a lot more moving parts.
Then you do not understand how a OAD tournament works. There are no guarantees, as UVA showed us even a 1-seed can lose to a 16. BUT…your chances increase of you winning the larger the gap between the seeds.
As long as we're the only one in, I don't really care what happens to the rest of them.
They sure aren't rooting for us.
They sure aren't rooting for us.
No one knows exactly what the NET formula is. It is a bit of a black box.
Margin of victory matters to some extent. If the NET is off regarding the B12, it should be an outlier compared to other metrics. Here is how it compares to the average of a many ratings, the Massey composite ranking:
NET ranking of Big 12 teams, Massey composite ranking of Big 12 teams:
1, 1
8, 9
10, 10
14, 15
17, 20
34, 26
38, 31
42, 36
43, 41
45, 52
66, 62
74, 78
114, 108
144, 137
It seems like the NET isn't too far off what all the other metrics suggest.
Regarding destroying inferior teams, I don't think it's a matter of intent to destroy or whatever that is unique to Big 12 teams. I think every team is trying their best to defeat their opponent. It's not like we play a low tier opponent and decide to take it easy and choose not to enter destructo mode. It would be nice to be able to flip on a destroy switch. We could have used that against UNCW this year.
You could be correct. I am just passing along what they said about the SVP segment from his show.
Similar threads
