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Running the numbers on player movement

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Glenn's take

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May 20, 2012
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I was bored so I decided to run the numbers on incoming freshman (not including walk ons) since Cal got here. Not surprisingly, the number of players that stayed 1 year outnumber 2-4 combined. He has had 65 freshman come in. Here is the breakdown by number of years here.

1 year-(38 players) John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Eric Bledsoe, Darnell Dodson, Daniel Orton, Brandon Knight, Stacey Poole, Anthony David, Michael Kidd-Gillchrist, Marquis Teague, Archie Goodwin, Nerlens Noel, Julius Randle, James Young, Karl Anthony-Towns, Devin Booker, Trey Lyles, Jamal Murray, Skal Labissiere, Charles Matthews, Malik Monk, De'Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo, Kevin Knox, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Hamidou Diallo, Jarred Vanderbile, Tyler Herro, Keldon Johnson, Jemarl Baker, Tyrese Maxey, Johnny Juzang, Kahlil Whitney (really about a half year), BJ Boston, Isaiah Jackson (I know could theoretically come back), Devin Askew, Terrance Clark, Cam'ron Fletcher.

2 years-(20 players) Terrance Jones, Doron Lamb, Kyle Wiltjer, Andrew Harrison, Aaron Harrison, Dakari Johnson, Tyler Ulis, Isaiah Briscoe, Isaac Humphries, Wenyen Gabriel, Sacha Killeya-Jones, Tai Wynard, PJ Washington, Ashton Haggans, Immanuel Quickley, EJ Montgomery, Quade Green (really a year and a half), Keion Brooks (may still be with the team next year), Dontaie Allen, Lance Ware.

3 years-(3 players) Willie Cauley-Stein, Marcus Lee, Nick Richards.

4 years-(4 players) Jon Hood, Alex Poythress, Dominique Hawkins, Derek Willis.

58.4% of players stay 1 year. 30,8% stay 2 years. 4.6% stay 3 years. 6.2% stay 4. 1.5% of players that come from outside the state of KY stay 4 years.

By my count, 11 players transferred out so 16.9% of freshman that come here transfer out after 1 or 2 years. You are 3 times more likely to transfer than you are to stay 4 years. This will only get worse.

The average stay here for a player since Cal got here is 1.4 years.

Quite honestly, if this is the new normal (and it will get worse with the new transfer rules) than I will just continue to lose more and more interest in the program
 
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Glenn's take said:
I was bored so I decided to run the numbers on incoming freshman (not including walk ons) since Cal got here. Not surprisingly, the number of players that stayed 1 year outnumber 2-4 combined. He has had 65 freshman come in. Here is the breakdown by number of years here.

1 year-(38 players) John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Eric Bledsoe, Darnell Dodson, Daniel Orton, Brandon Knight, Stacey Poole, Anthony David, Michael Kidd-Gillchrist, Marquis Teague, Archie Goodwin, Nerlens Noel, Julius Randle, James Young, Karl Anthony-Towns, Devin Booker, Trey Lyles, Jamal Murray, Skal Labissiere, Charles Matthews, Malik Monk, De'Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo, Kevin Knox, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Hamidou Diallo, Jarred Vanderbile, Tyler Herro, Keldon Johnson, Jemarl Baker, Tyrese Maxey, Johnny Juzang, Kahlil Whitney (really about a half year), BJ Boston, Isaiah Jackson (I know could theoretically come back), Devin Askew, Terrance Clark, Cam'ron Fletcher.

2 years-(20 players) Terrance Jones, Doron Lamb, Kyle Wiltjer, Andrew Harrison, Aaron Harrison, Dakari Johnson, Tyler Ulis, Isaiah Briscoe, Isaac Humphries, Wenyen Gabriel, Sacha Killeya-Jones, Tai Wynard, PJ Washington, Ashton Haggans, Immanuel Quickley, EJ Montgomery, Quade Green (really a year and a half), Keion Brooks (may still be with the team next year), Dontaie Allen, Lance Ware.

3 years-(3 players) Willie Cauley-Stein, Marcus Lee, Nick Richards.

4 years-(4 players) Jon Hood, Alex Poythress, Dominique Hawkins, Derek Willis.

58.4% of players stay 1 year. 30,8% stay 2 years. 4.6% stay 3 years. 6.2% stay 4. 1.5% of players that come from outside the state of KY stay 4 years.

By my count, 11 players transferred out so 16.9% of freshman that come here transfer out after 1 or 2 years. You are 3 times more likely to transfer than you are to stay 4 years. This will only get worse.

The average stay here for a player since Cal got here is 1.4 years.

Quite honestly, if this is the new normal (and it will get worse with the new transfer rules) than I will just continue to lose more and more interest in the program
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Very informative. Let's all give up on the program and play mumblypeg. No need to follow the Cats anymore. We are the only program with transfers and one and done. Of course we were all happy when we got Oscar and Kellan Grady as transfers. Oh I forgot Toppin and a few more.
 
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The adjustment is to only take the Walls, Zions, ADs. If you want to take a flyer on ONE of the next tier a year then do it.

then the rest of your “recruiting class” should be guys like Toppin or OscarT. They spent 1 or 2 years at another school. So they have 2-3 years of eligibility left and when they come to you, they’ve already burnt their 1 time free transfer. Therefore they are more likely to stay...especially the guys coming in as JRs.

And if you have a blatant need (PG this year) bc one of your underclass transfers didn’t develop, then you fins a senior or grad transfer that can fill the spot
 
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Glenn's take said:
I was bored so I decided to run the numbers on incoming freshman (not including walk ons) since Cal got here. Not surprisingly, the number of players that stayed 1 year outnumber 2-4 combined. He has had 65 freshman come in. Here is the breakdown by number of years here.

1 year-(38 players) John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Eric Bledsoe, Darnell Dodson, Daniel Orton, Brandon Knight, Stacey Poole, Anthony David, Michael Kidd-Gillchrist, Marquis Teague, Archie Goodwin, Nerlens Noel, Julius Randle, James Young, Karl Anthony-Towns, Devin Booker, Trey Lyles, Jamal Murray, Skal Labissiere, Charles Matthews, Malik Monk, De'Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo, Kevin Knox, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Hamidou Diallo, Jarred Vanderbile, Tyler Herro, Keldon Johnson, Jemarl Baker, Tyrese Maxey, Johnny Juzang, Kahlil Whitney (really about a half year), BJ Boston, Isaiah Jackson (I know could theoretically come back), Devin Askew, Terrance Clark, Cam'ron Fletcher.

2 years-(20 players) Terrance Jones, Doron Lamb, Kyle Wiltjer, Andrew Harrison, Aaron Harrison, Dakari Johnson, Tyler Ulis, Isaiah Briscoe, Isaac Humphries, Wenyen Gabriel, Sacha Killeya-Jones, Tai Wynard, PJ Washington, Ashton Haggans, Immanuel Quickley, EJ Montgomery, Quade Green (really a year and a half), Keion Brooks (may still be with the team next year), Dontaie Allen, Lance Ware.

3 years-(3 players) Willie Cauley-Stein, Marcus Lee, Nick Richards.

4 years-(4 players) Jon Hood, Alex Poythress, Dominique Hawkins, Derek Willis.

58.4% of players stay 1 year. 30,8% stay 2 years. 4.6% stay 3 years. 6.2% stay 4. 1.5% of players that come from outside the state of KY stay 4 years.

By my count, 11 players transferred out so 16.9% of freshman that come here transfer out after 1 or 2 years. You are 3 times more likely to transfer than you are to stay 4 years. This will only get worse.

The average stay here for a player since Cal got here is 1.4 years.

Quite honestly, if this is the new normal (and it will get worse with the new transfer rules) than I will just continue to lose more and more interest in the program
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Excellent work on that. This is exactly why I was done with Cal’s philosophy several years ago. This is no way to build consistency.
 
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kl40504 said:
Very informative. Let's all give up on the program and play mumblypeg. No need to follow the Cats anymore. We are the only program with transfers and one and done. Of course we were all happy when we got Oscar and Kellan Grady as transfers. Oh I forgot Toppin and a few more.
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KyFaninNC said:
Excellent work on that. This is exactly why I was done with Cal’s philosophy several years ago. This is no way to build consistency.
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And no other program has a problem with transfers. Got it.
 
kyjeff1 said:
This is a non issue, I was told on Rupp Rafters that you can't tell players they have to stay, so obviously they have to leave.
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Especially when you have fans like you telling them you want them to leave.
 
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FFWhite said:
I would like to go back to Tubby years where we got 4 years of suck out of Sheray Thomas.
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This logic is so ridiculously stupid and tiring. If you dump a girl because she turns into a crack addict, and then have to dump the next girl because she's a habitual liar, it doesn't mean you want to go back to the crack addict. It means neither are a good fit and you desire someone who is all together different. Nobody who is unhappy with Cal wants Tubby back. Believe it or not there are successful ways of coaching that are completely different from either of these two, or perhaps even a balance between the two. But you lack the intelligence to make any kind of persuasive argument and just spew that same old line that's been worn out for 10 years now.
 
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Phil_The_Music said:
This logic is so ridiculously stupid and tiring. If you dump a girl because she turns into a crack addict, and then have to dump the next girl because she's a habitual liar, it doesn't mean you want to go back to the crack addict. It means neither are a good fit and you desire someone who is all together different. Nobody who is unhappy with Cal wants Tubby back. Believe it or not there are successful ways of coaching that are completely different from either of these two, or perhaps even a balance between the two. But you lack the intelligence to make any kind of persuasive argument and just spew that same old line that's been worn out for 10 years now.
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I understand you don't want Tubby back and prefer the Billy G days. Now there was a coach you loved or was it the Eddie Sutton years that made you all excited?
 
kl40504 said:
I understand you don't want Tubby back and prefer the Billy G days. Now there was a coach you loved or was it the Eddie Sutton years that made you all excited?
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I was going to call you an idiot, but it's not right to name call the mentally challenged. You conveniently only mention the bad coaches in our history, while purposely ignoring coaches like Adolph Rupp, Joe B Hall, Rick Pitino and pre 2016 John Calipari. Kentucky has had plenty of success without Cal, and can certainly do so again.
 
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Phil_The_Music said:
I was going to call you an idiot, but it's not right to name call the mentally challenged. You conveniently only mention the bad coaches in our history, while purposely ignoring coaches like Adolph Rupp, Joe B Hall, Rick Pitino and pre 2016 John Calipari. Kentucky has had plenty of success without Cal, and can certainly do so again.
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And IU has had no success in decades after Bobby Knight. How do you know we won't get a Mike Davis, Tom Creen or Archie Miller? UK is no longer the Holy Grail of college basketball as far as coaching positions. IU was the king of college basketball when Knight was there and for decades now they have been a dumpster fire.
 
kl40504 said:
And IU has had no success in decades after Bobby Knight. How do you know we won't get a Mike Davis, Tom Creen or Archie Miller? UK is no longer the Holy Grail of college basketball as far as coaching positions. IU was the king of college basketball when Knight was there and for decades now they have been a dumpster fire.
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Well damn I guess once Cal leaves we should just shut down the program and turn Rupp Arena into a full time concert and monster truck show venue. Because apparently basketball will cease to exist without him. I bet Alabama fans are glad they didn't exude your line of thinking and got rid of bad coaches to get Saban. Or UNC to get Roy. For every Indiana there's at least two that have struggled but were able to find the right fit and regain their success. Oh, and we aren't freakin' Indiana, so there's that.
 
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Phil_The_Music said:
Well damn I guess once Cal leaves we should just shut down the program and turn Rupp Arena into a full time concert and monster truck show venue. Because apparently basketball will cease to exist without him. I bet Alabama fans are glad they didn't exude your line of thinking and got rid of bad coaches to get Saban. Or UNC to get Roy. For every Indiana there's at least two that have struggled but were able to find the right fit and regain their success. Oh, and we aren't freakin' Indiana, so there's that.
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That Monster Truck show sounds good.
 
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the nail at the foul line said:
So, all four year players are either from Kentucky or from a place where you can throw a rock and hit Kentucky.

Honestly, if the maps would have been drawn right in the 1800's, Clarksville would be in Kentucky.
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If you ever driven into Clarksville you can see the Stateline of ky and tn from the 4 lane. Their is no houses on the ky side and all these nice big houses on the tn side.
You might as well say it's a border town .
 
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kyjeff1 said:
This is a non issue, I was told on Rupp Rafters that you can't tell players they have to stay, so obviously they have to leave.
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Not sure what logic that is. PlayStation maybe. They can CHOSE to do whatever they want. Only an overbearing asshole that didn't give a damn about them would tell or order them to do something.
 
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kybassfan said:
Not sure what logic that is. PlayStation maybe. They can CHOSE to do whatever they want. Only an overbearing asshole that didn't give a damn about them would tell or order them to do something.
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Yeah, the simple fact that UK loses more underclassmen every year than any of the other 350 D1 programs, should tell you he's doing something wrong. You would have a point if that wasn't true.
Out if the scholarship players he has recruited since 2009, we have had, what, 4 guys stay through their junior year? What a joke.

9-16
 
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kyjeff1 said:
Yeah, the simple fact that UK loses more underclassmen every year than any of the other 350 D1 programs, should tell you he's doing something wrong. You would have a point if that wasn't true.
Out if the scholarship players he has recruited since 2009, we have had, what, 4 guys stay through their junior year? What a joke.

9-16
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What’s that got to do with telling them or ordering them to go. You give them information, they process it and make a decision. They are neither robots or property. He recruits kids that have options.
 
kybassfan said:
What’s that got to do with telling them or ordering them to go. You give them information, they process it and make a decision. They are neither robots or property. He recruits kids that have options.
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It’s a non issue in most programs. There are no meetings with kids like Hagans, EJ, Quickly, Richards, Goodwin, Orton, the Harrison twins, Diallo, Knox, SKJ etc… to discuss their next level options. That’s ridiculous. Those conversations should never even be a thing, but they are at UK, because Cal has turned this into an NBA first program and he gets people like you to buy into it by calling it "a players first program". You are 100% in on everything Cal sells you, so much so, that you can’t see what's happening right under your nose.

Take a look at the programs that are winning titles and getting to final fours, they're all teams that put the program first.

I'm not the only one that sees it, your idol also sees it, why else would he be making the changes he’s making.

Wake up
 
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kyjeff1 said:
It’s a non issue in most programs. There are no meetings with kids like Hagans, EJ, Quickly, Richards, Goodwin, Orton, the Harrison twins, Diallo, Knox, SKJ etc… to discuss their next level options. That’s ridiculous. Those conversations should never even be a thing, but they are at UK, because Cal has turned this into an NBA first program and he gets people like you to buy into it by calling it "a players first program". You are 100% in on everything Cal sells you, so much so, that you can’t see what's happening right under your nose.

Take a look at the programs that are winning titles and getting to final fours, they're all teams that put the program first.

I'm not the only one that sees it, your idol also sees it, why else would he be making the changes he’s making.

Wake up
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Why do you insist on spewing mundane trivia? Yes all those kids had options. Yes they chose to exercise those. Yawn.

it’s gonna get worse Jeffy. Maybe you should just find something you can get your mind around. Checkers maybe?
 
kybassfan said:
Why do you insist on spewing mundane trivia? Yes all those kids had options. Yes they chose to exercise those. Yawn.

it’s gonna get worse Jeffy. Maybe you should just find something you can get your mind around. Checkers maybe?
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Oh it's going to get worse, for fans like you.
 
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