Until we have a vaccine, what changes in 6 months?
I’m putting it at 50/50. Hope I’m wrong.
I’m putting it at 50/50. Hope I’m wrong.
What percentage chance is there that NCAA Football does NOT return in the fall?
- Thread starter catben
- Start date
None
Zero
Nada
This is the greatest country on earth.
Plus SEC football...
Zero
Nada
This is the greatest country on earth.
Plus SEC football...
Sanity will recover by then. No way this goes beyond the beginning of April.
A
anon_013cn8yrfncx2
Guest
Don’t forget the politicization. There are some who will try to keep the doom and gloom going until the election.
Then there’s the NFL who will bring pressure the other way. There will be a full court press on getting a vaccine by then and there may be enough time for that even if they have to push back the season by a month or two.Been working on one for over a month now so with extreme focus that would give them 8/9 months. I’m betting it will get done.
Otherwise , if it spreads like some say, maybe there’ll be no one left to catch the virus by then and we can all resume our lives.
Then there’s the NFL who will bring pressure the other way. There will be a full court press on getting a vaccine by then and there may be enough time for that even if they have to push back the season by a month or two.Been working on one for over a month now so with extreme focus that would give them 8/9 months. I’m betting it will get done.
Otherwise , if it spreads like some say, maybe there’ll be no one left to catch the virus by then and we can all resume our lives.
I just hope I am here to enjoy next season.
All of us.
All of us.
I know I'm a little different but I'm more concerned about the health of the nation than I am about sports. In my life I have never witnessed a lot of what my grandparents and parents saw as far as nationwide pandemics like they dealt with. Pox, cholera, polio, TB, even the great flu has not visited this country most of my life. I vaguely remember one classmate in grade school who wore heavy braces from polio and that's about it. Our medical people have really performed well and I believe vaccinations were a big part of that. We may be in for a rude re-acquaintance with killer microbes being unleashed on our exploding herd.
Just my opinion but from what I gather the widespread wholesale shutting down of everything is driven by the fact that we are way behind the curve on testing. Without testing we don't know where the concentration of the virus lies and which areas are relatively safe so there is no other choice but to close everything except the essential things.
So when testing gets ramped up and is commonly available with quick results they should be able to get a better handle on things. That should happen in the next few weeks. At that point I think we will begin to see things open back up, including sports. I'm not sure how to deal with having fans prove they have been tested negative, but it should not be an issue to make sure the teams, coaches and staff have the "all clear" and play the games.
I don't know what percentage to put on that because its a lot of "iffin" but I would say maybe a 75-80% chance we'll have football, maybe not with huge crowds, or any fans at all but I think they will find a way to get the games played.
So when testing gets ramped up and is commonly available with quick results they should be able to get a better handle on things. That should happen in the next few weeks. At that point I think we will begin to see things open back up, including sports. I'm not sure how to deal with having fans prove they have been tested negative, but it should not be an issue to make sure the teams, coaches and staff have the "all clear" and play the games.
I don't know what percentage to put on that because its a lot of "iffin" but I would say maybe a 75-80% chance we'll have football, maybe not with huge crowds, or any fans at all but I think they will find a way to get the games played.
this has to be wound down and normalcy begun in 4 months time to conceivably start season on time. carriers amount of time active keeps getting revised longer and longer, last I heard was over 30 days. hope i’m wrong and timeline is shorter, but would think it will be very close for all fall-starting activities.
The whole reason for the extreme measures is to lessen the impact on everything. It’ll be sooooo much better in 2 months let alone 6 months. Now, that being said it’s gonna get worse in the short term.
China was not prepared, had the first breakout, and had to play catch up. They shut everything down for 10 wks before starting to open back up.
China was not prepared, had the first breakout, and had to play catch up. They shut everything down for 10 wks before starting to open back up.
From a conversation with a Dr, shutdown of large assemblies is not due to testing. (I agree that we need better testing ability.) He says shutdown of large assemblies is an effort to prevent a rush on hospitals, clinics, etc... Lack of test kits are part of the issue, but a public rush seeking treatment would overtax all essential medical treatment including beds, oxygen, just basic healthcare items.
It was first time I heard the phrase "flatten the curve." I've seen it several times since our conversation. But, they would rather have the virus extend several weeks rather than many people getting it at the same time in a short timeframe. There is hope that weather change will help eliminate the virus. Yet, "hope" is a bad plan. Meanwhile, no amount of hospitals/clinics can handle several million people all trying to get treatment at the same time.
Don't think I could withstand that. Have heard a couple of health people say they think it will spike in 4 to 6 weeks then the downturn will start. Just have to find a way to survive without sports for four months.
In 6 months most people will be immune to it by catching. The idea over the next three months is to slow the numbers down so the medical community isn’t overwhelmed.
Are we sure you can't get it a second time? Who knows, this stuff could mutate.
Dr. Lawler isn’t the only expert that I’ve seen that’s predicting close to 500k deaths. That’s 100,000 more than what died in WWll. He said that was a conservative prediction. The people that think this is going to go away in a month or two are in for a rude awakening.
it is not a certainty that a recovered person has immunity.
while the bulk of the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918 was over a 1 yr period, full global impact took nearly 3 years to resolve
Well it started in Jan in Wuhan. So now 3 months later they have a grasp on things and are returning to normal.
So we should be fine here within the next 3 months I would say. Its gonna spike in April and by July or August we will be good.
I say 90% chance we have football this fall.
So we should be fine here within the next 3 months I would say. Its gonna spike in April and by July or August we will be good.
I say 90% chance we have football this fall.
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Assuming the states keep putting in drastic measures to control it since the national government is mostly failing to do anything productive and the populace is continuing to mostly be selfish and careless in regards to social distancing, the increase in cases per day will eventually start to decrease.
73.2% chance we have football season. I personally crunched the numbers with my Texas Instruments calculator.
They'll have a vaccine in 6 months, if they don't already. Not that it'll prevent anything. Everyone will have already built a short term immunity to the virus.
I'd say the chance of not having the season is the same as not having an economy left after this induced panic. 50/50
I'd say the chance of not having the season is the same as not having an economy left after this induced panic. 50/50
Money talks, so I can't see the NCAA, TV networks, NFL, rabid fan bases, etc. going without football after going without EVERYTHING ELSE in sports for 6 months.
Myself, I'm ready to start a 60 and over league. I impressed myself a couple of weeks ago on a windy day at the beach when I was able to chase down something that blew out of our beach bag. Took me about 40 yards to catch up to it. Even my wife said she couldn't believe I caught up to it.
![[laughing]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/classic/laugh.r191677.gif "Laughing [laughing]")
I mean just sell every 3rd seat and keep people 6' apart. Except UT could only sell every 6th seat in Neyland. ;-)
This was posted over on the Paddock, it's a video that explains the math behind a pandemic. It's a bit wonky, but the bottom line is the action that the governments and people are taking is really crucial for slowing the spread and mitigating the number of cases:
Problem for us is China moved aggressively and swiftly to confront this stuff while we were busy trying to decide who to blame. Indications for us are now the adults in the room are finally moving in the right direction.
As for % of play, yes or no....who knows, a lot to still be determined.
ha, yeah - China welded people shut into their buildings. We’ll for sure do better than that!
Problem I worry about is ... China claims to be in better shape now but can you trust anything that they say at this point. Personally I don't.
Yeah to the OP's question, its so hard to know. This kind of situation has never been that long in many years. I guess TB might be the one thing that I remember where it separated families for quite some time. I'm hoping the great medical minds come up with the solution and soon.
Other than spring football I go without sports from April through July.,March helps me get through though
I hear ya about the NFL, but whoda thought the NBA would shut down halfway thru a game?? Who could imagine a closed for business sign on Italy, Spain, France and parts of the U.S.???
