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We are so behind on offense

I'd venture to guess that most offenses don't put up good numbers vs really good defenses. Or else, they wouldn't be really good defenses.

We put up 1.05 points per possession vs St. Peters. Which doesn't sound like much. St Peters has a highly rated defense despite being a 15 seed. When you factor that the predicted score on Kenpom given where the two teams were ranked was 74-59, and that 1.05 points per possession was the 5th highest mark on their defense all season long, you begin to think maybe that wasn't all that bad. In other words given our highly ranked offense and their highly ranked defense, we scored about what was expected.

It's the fact they scored 81 when they were predicted to score 59 which was quite alarming.


I think that's how these things need evaluated anyways. Given a teams rating and their opponent rating (off vs def) what were they expected to do and what actually happened. Given that even filtering the results from February onward our offense was still at 6th in adjusted off efficiency, I'm guessing we didn't drop off all that much.
The only 2 teams they played all year in the ballpark of Power 5 were Providence and St Johns, both of whom scored 85+ on St. Peters. We scored 71 in regulation. While our average offensive efficiency was good; games at the low end of our performance range doomed this team. Variation in performance was too high, especially for a one and done format. For this season, this team needed an elite offense every game to overcome the defense. Concerning to me is that our offense vs St. Peters seemed to be an extension of the Tennessee game. We supposedly made a tweak, but no change in the results. So while defense was the bigger issue all season, I'm not sure we ever demonstrated we had the players, coaching or will to play great defense this season. We had previously demonstrated great offense though, and I think we definitely failed in this area in the postseason.
 
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We’ve discussed this. The proof is there for you to see but you still want to hold on to this notion that a college Basketball teams abilities are tied to metrics and can be quantified. They actually can’t, if you want to use math to find the distance to the moon, the circumference of black holes, the speed of new horizons, you can. If you want to use math as a means to understand 19 year olds dribbling a ball? You can’t.

Give it up bro. Analytics are killing sports. Baseball is slowly waking up to this and is finally about to end where analytics have taken the game. Every sport needs to stop placing so much emphasis on it.

Teams are investing a boatload into analytics. They are doing this for a reason.

Jump on board my friend.
 
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UK this season

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency = 4th
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency = 35th

Beating a dead horse here but everyone is focusing on the wrong side of the ball.
and honestly our defense wasn't even close to being the 35th ranked in the country if you take out all of those Quad 3 and 4 games early in the season.
 
and honestly our defense wasn't even close to being the 35th ranked in the country if you take out all of those Quad 3 and 4 games early in the season.

Well the numbers are adjusted for SOS so it's not as if that number was just feasting off easy opponents.

But yeah towards the end of the year I think in our last ten games it ranked 162nd. So it definitely fell off the cliff lol.
 
I forget who it was but MJ said he was talking with a guy who is very familiar with all levels of BB, and he said Cal is the only one still playing this way.
 
Yet, we scored 79 pts
..we let a team that averaged 67 score 85...now which side of the ball beat us?
ARK, TENN and SP were very quick teams.
We struggled with quickness on both sides of the ball. SP was quick at all 5 spots.
 
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Well the numbers are adjusted for SOS so it's not as if that number was just feasting off easy opponents.

But yeah towards the end of the year I think in our last ten games it ranked 162nd. So it definitely fell off the cliff lol.
I think our interior defense was sufficient. It was mainly because we didn't have a lockdown perimeter defender. It seemed every team down the stretch had a guard that lit us up and we could do nothing about it. Of course there were some schematic things like trapping, switching on screens, etc that might have worked if Cal would have ever tried them.
 
Teams are investing a boatload into analytics. They are doing this for a reason.

Jump on board my friend.

In baseball analytics brought shifting. As of next year they are going to begin making rules against it. I’m a way, that’s baseball moving AWAY from analytics.

In a way.
 
In baseball analytics brought shifting. As of next year they are going to begin making rules against it. I’m a way, that’s baseball moving AWAY from analytics.

In a way.

I don't agree with that non sense about shifting btw.

Could you imagine in football telling a QB they couldn't throw to a specific area of the field because it's too hard for defenders to defend? lol.

Hitters should just adapt. Shit drop a bunt down the third base line a few times and walk to first and see how quickly they stop shifting lol.

Also ridiculous is this continuation of having a runner on 2nd to start extra innings. But that discussion is for another day.
 
I don't agree with that non sense about shifting btw.

Could you imagine in football telling a QB they couldn't throw to a specific area of the field because it's too hard for defenders to defend? lol.

Hitters should just adapt. Shit drop a bunt down the third base line a few times and walk to first and see how quickly they stop shifting lol.

Also ridiculous is this continuation of having a runner on 2nd to start extra innings. But that discussion is for another day.

Shifting is gone because it’s killing the game. Batters don’t adjust to it because the way they’ve been taught to swing to power strength and launch angle.

The only way to stop it is to say a first baseman is a first baseman. He’s not a short stop. You can play off in ways like we’ve always done it, but you can’t just shift an entire field out of positions and turn baseball into Indian ball. And that’s what’s happened.
 
Not really.

I mean in a one and done tournament things happen but whoever wins the title this is going to have good efficiency numbers.
Other than the occasional outlier, the best teams are going to have the best efficiency numbers, because the best teams have the best players. When the best teams are forced to get together for the NCAA tourney, especially when you get past the first round, those efficiency numbers mean nothing. It becomes much more about coaching, and players being able to perform under pressure. That’s what decides NCAA tournament games.
 
Other than the occasional outlier, the best teams are going to have the best efficiency numbers, because the best teams have the best players. When the best teams are forced to get together for the NCAA tourney, especially when you get past the first round, those efficiency numbers mean nothing. It becomes much more about coaching, and players being able to perform under pressure. That’s what decides NCAA tournament games.

Teams that win titles are usually teams that have large margin of victories through the regular seasons, hence better efficiency numbers.

Wisconsin received a 3 seed largely based on the fact that they won a bunch of close games, clearly showing they had the ability to perform under pressure. But they were ranked 35th in Kenpom, didn't have great efficiency numbers and thus are sitting at home.

The teams that have the greatest efficiency margins in the regular season are usually the ones standing in the end. I think it's a bit silly to ignore that. The majority of the high efficiency teams pre tournament are still standing.
 
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