The answer, like most things in life, is somewhere in the middle.
When you're making a PB&J Sandwich--if you want the ultimate sandwich--you get your favorite bread, favorite peanut butter, and favorite jelly. No one gets bad bread and expects the PB to carry it. No one gets bad PB and expects the bread to carry it.
Calipari wanted Kentucky because he knew the brand mattered. The resources mattered. Kentucky wanted Calipari because he was one of the best coaches in the country at time. That mattered.
Cal will continue having success at Arkansas. That doesn't mean the Kentucky brand never mattered. Cal has a ton of NIL at Arkansas. NIL has changed things. If you aren't a big brand, money can help your ability to recruit.
So does the brand really matter in the world of NIL? Yes.
Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, UNC will be very competitive in NIL. Once the offers are the same or close enough, kids are going to pick the schools that give them the best exposure.