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Thoughts from Dick Gabriel

The Spurrier thing is blown out of proportion. He definitely took them to the next level, but they weren't some terrible program before him and I imagine were well ahead of us then too. They even finished in the top 10 three times in the 80's prior to his arrival. Between 1950 - 1990 (Spurrier's first year), they only had 6 losing seasons in 40 years. We had 22 losing seasons in the same time frame.
Unless I have wrong info Fla leads series 53-21 and they best us 31 times in a row until 2018 with most of that being Spurrier.
 
Unless I have wrong info Fla leads series 53-21 and they best us 31 times in a row from until 2018 with most of that being Spurrier.
Gotcha...I was reading that wrong. I thought you meant the overall winning percentages of the respective programs. The series itself was 23-17 in UF's advantage prior to Spurrier who then blew it wide open.
 
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Then look at the step after that.
I agree.

And even at that, is continual linear progress likely?

I like to compare Stoops to HOF Coach Frank Beamer. So far, Stoops is even, or even slightly ahead of Beamer in most categories.

But after Beamer’s legendary career at VPI, they have slid badly, and with multiple Coaches.

K-State is up and down, with very mediocre recruiting, at best, following two Hall of Fame stints by Snyder.

In the short term, what every program wants and needs is a miracle working Quarterback. Land a Lamar Jackson, a Dak Prescott type guy, and elevate a team on the 8ish win level to 11 or 12 wins (and Lamar elevated a 6 winish team to 9 wins).

With Coen, we have a shot to do this in the next 5 years.
 
This is a reasonable take. To recognize that it's a coin flip if we jettison our best coach ever for a 40-50%? chance we make it to the next level, while also recognizing we could take a slide back towards the mean. I'm a high risk taker too. I quit my stable finance job to live off trading my own assets, so analyzing risk is my full time job. You wanting to go for broke is fine, but you aren't gambling your own money, so pretty easy to take that path. Someone with everything to lose is going to be a bit more pragmatic. Risk management is the key to success and finding opportunities that tilt the scales in your favor are how you continue on the path upward. If I was making the decision, I would not be willing to throw away our upward trajectory that's trending 50% more wins over the 25 year avg in order for a flip the coin chance on improving 10-15% more while risking a 30-50% drop. Mitch has a fiduciary responsibility and that kind of decision gets a Wealth Manager sued by a client when it doesn't work out.
You make a good point and I won't attempt to argue it, other than by stating that it does appear that Stoops is trending down and if we believe the reports, doesn't seem like he even wants to be here. So I'd say there's also risk involved in keeping him as well. But you are an expert in evaluating risks so I'll defer to your opinion on which risk is greater. I appreciate your response.
 
You fail to acknowledge that all those programs were already investing in their programs while we were not. We didn’t take football serious until after Joker. They milked their bell cow (football money) until the stands were empty. We might not be ahead of any of them but we’re not miles behind anymore either like we used to be.
Blame the donors. Uk invested in facilities as soon as the money was available. Not a lot could be done when the ability to borrow was not even there. I guess if the state gave to UK like they have for UL it would have helped.
 
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It is true that expectations were high this year and we didn't meet them. What you can put on fans is a level of emotional immaturity that seems to prevent perspective. Yes, we failed to win one more game on the road at USCe which would have met expectations in the win column, but the trend line is fine. As a financial analyst I look at sports results much like I look at company performance. Is the multi year trend line above historical avg and are there any catastrophes preventing growth? No. I would even argue that it's pretty impressive to finish 7-5 in such a down year which is much better than our historical avg (it was actually our ceiling before Stoops arrived). This season was a bit of a disappointment, but not below the expected range of outcomes.
And as a financial analyst, what steps would you take if you identified ongoing "catastrophes preventing growth"?

It doesn't take an analyst to recognize the downward trend of this program the past 2 years, not even taking in to account the abysmal Covid year.

Losing to Vandy, twice to USC, Missouri, and the beat down by TN in Knoxville last year were not above the " historical average" for CMS once he has gotten his team established.

Your "expected range of outcomes" is obviously lower than many UK fans who expect more out of our coach and our football program, and that is ok.

Just don't expect everyone else to have your lower range of expectations based on a statistical average.

CMS needs to get this program headed back in the right direction and that will require changes to address the obvious "catastrophes" that are preventing that growth in my opinion.
 
It is hard to overstate just how stupid this made-up conspiracy theory really is.

No conspiracy, just how he presents himself for the over 40 years I’ve listened to HIM.

You like to throw out the insults, but RARELY if EVER provide any knowledge of the topic you complain about.
 
I agree 100%. UK Football was a joke the vast majoirty of my life. Rich Brooks made it fun. Stopps brought us back and had the most success I’ve ever seen as a fan. He deserves our love, and the time to continue to build his legacy here.
Stoops didn't feel the need to continue building on his Legacy this past weekend. Why will anyone else?

He needs to go. Hopefully Iowa does us a solid. He has reached his peak.
 
Stoops didn't feel the need to continue building on his Legacy this past weekend. Why will anyone else?

He needs to go. Hopefully Iowa does us a solid. He has reached his peak.
Nobody know exactly what happened and it happens across sports all the time even if he did talk to them. Like I’ve said before. If I went to a school who sucked and did things no coach had for decades and decades I’d think about leaving too with all the BS he’s heard the last 2 years.
 
I agree.

And even at that, is continual linear progress likely?

I like to compare Stoops to HOF Coach Frank Beamer. So far, Stoops is even, or even slightly ahead of Beamer in most categories.

But after Beamer’s legendary career at VPI, they have slid badly, and with multiple Coaches.

K-State is up and down, with very mediocre recruiting, at best, following two Hall of Fame stints by Snyder.

In the short term, what every program wants and needs is a miracle working Quarterback. Land a Lamar Jackson, a Dak Prescott type guy, and elevate a team on the 8ish win level to 11 or 12 wins (and Lamar elevated a 6 winish team to 9 wins).

With Coen, we have a shot to do this in the next 5 years.
As long as we repair our lines on both sides of the ball. We also need edge rushers to get some kind of pressure on the QB, we also have to protect the QB’s we have. Especially when we rely heavily on the run game historically under Stoops.
 
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I agree.

And even at that, is continual linear progress likely?

I like to compare Stoops to HOF Coach Frank Beamer. So far, Stoops is even, or even slightly ahead of Beamer in most categories.

But after Beamer’s legendary career at VPI, they have slid badly, and with multiple Coaches.

K-State is up and down, with very mediocre recruiting, at best, following two Hall of Fame stints by Snyder.

In the short term, what every program wants and needs is a miracle working Quarterback. Land a Lamar Jackson, a Dak Prescott type guy, and elevate a team on the 8ish win level to 11 or 12 wins (and Lamar elevated a 6 winish team to 9 wins).

With Coen, we have a shot to do this in the next 5 years.
Doubt MS or Coen are here in 5 years. 1 retired and one moved on unless he is HC.
 
What this program needs and have not had since Drew Barker is coming....highly ranked and regarded high school quarterbacks to mold and grow with. Boley this January, Stone January 2025.
 
What this program needs and have not had since Drew Barker is coming....highly ranked and regarded high school quarterbacks to mold and grow with. Boley this January, Stone January 2025.
If they get a chance to show what they can do. We are hitting the transfer portal hard for QB's going on 4 years now. No recruited QB gets a chance to even see the field most of the time. With the way Stoops likes to play, we rarely get big enough leads to even get the backups into the games. The times they get in it's just to hand it off. Can't develop players that way. Won't surprise me to see them transfer out if we keep taking portal QB's.
 
by stating that it does appear that Stoops is trending down

First off, always take hearsay reports with a huge grain of salt.


2nd, how does it appear that he's trending down?

2016Kentucky7–64–4T–2nd (Eastern)L TaxSlayer
2017Kentucky7–64–4T–3rd (Eastern)L Music City
2018Kentucky10–35–3T–2nd (Eastern)W Citrus1112
2019Kentucky8–53–5T–4th (Eastern)W Belk
2020Kentucky5–64–64th (Eastern)W Gator
2021Kentucky10–35–32nd (Eastern)W Citrus1518
2022Kentucky7–63–5T–4th (Eastern)L Music City
2023Kentucky7–53–5T–4th (Eastern)



To me, he seems to have established a cycle. Cycles are present at 98% of college football programs. There are 2% of programs that can win extremely consistent year after year, but the vast majority have an ebb/flow to their production.....which depend on rosters, schedules, injuries, luck, coaching, etc. These cycles tend to occur about 2-4 yrs on average. Stoops' records over the last 8 yrs really seem to present a very consistent cycle.

This stinks because he doesn't seem to improving and staying rather stagnant.......but I'm not registering a downward trend. What am I missing?
 
Dicks entire article could have been squeezed into 2 words ( uttered by Stoops ) Pony Up … it’s monies fault we are where are . I’m not buying it . Lack of execution and discipline and lack of offensive imagination is not all on the players .. time management in year 11 ? Dreadful . I get the argument he’s done well , he has . No doubt . But these last 2 years have been garbage , it’s not been “ a couple bad games “ and HOW you lose matters as well . Totally 100% non competitive in 3 games in 2 years .. I think 1/2 the team peed their pants at UT last year . Terrified .
 
First off, always take hearsay reports with a huge grain of salt.


2nd, how does it appear that he's trending down?

2016Kentucky7–64–4T–2nd (Eastern)L TaxSlayer
2017Kentucky7–64–4T–3rd (Eastern)L Music City
2018Kentucky10–35–3T–2nd (Eastern)W Citrus1112
2019Kentucky8–53–5T–4th (Eastern)W Belk
2020Kentucky5–64–64th (Eastern)W Gator
2021Kentucky10–35–32nd (Eastern)W Citrus1518
2022Kentucky7–63–5T–4th (Eastern)L Music City
2023Kentucky7–53–5T–4th (Eastern)



To me, he seems to have established a cycle. Cycles are present at 98% of college football programs. There are 2% of programs that can win extremely consistent year after year, but the vast majority have an ebb/flow to their production.....which depend on rosters, schedules, injuries, luck, coaching, etc. These cycles tend to occur about 2-4 yrs on average. Stoops' records over the last 8 yrs really seem to present a very consistent cycle.

This stinks because he doesn't seem to improving and staying rather stagnant.......but I'm not registering a downward trend. What am I missing?
Expectations are part of it. We've had 3 disappointing years in the past 4 where we expected better. It's also not just the record. The product on the field has looked pretty bad in recent years. It's why Stoops will be forced to make some staff changes. You can only fire your staff so much before you have to start looking in the mirror and seeing you are also part of the problem.

If he wants to stay here, then he will also need to make some changes in the way he does things. Like making players more accountable, work on some of his coaching weaknesses, and give the coordinators more freedom. We can't be the slowest team in college football if you want to attract the better players. He's lost a number of fans. Will he do what's necessary to win them back? Right now I think there will be a substantial drop in season tickets next season.
 
And as for Dick Gabriel, he is part of the OLD SCHOOL UK media that deep down actually resents UK sports fans and wants to put LIMITS on our expectations, especially for UK Football.

I don't know about the resenting fans aspect, but he definitely seems to be trying to manage expectations with those comments and is seemingly all for maintaining the status quo; i.e. fans don't need to rock the boat; just keep buying tickets. He works for the university, so it's not a shocker to me.
 
Expectations are part of it.
VPI and their fans have had high expectations since Coach Beamer left.

So have the fans of K-State, both times the old man retired.

Expectations don’t throw passes and make tackles.

If “expectations” made for wins, “hopes,” and “dreams” would also.
 
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Expectations are part of it. We've had 3 disappointing years in the past 4 where we expected better. It's also not just the record. The product on the field has looked pretty bad in recent years. It's why Stoops will be forced to make some staff changes. You can only fire your staff so much before you have to start looking in the mirror and seeing you are also part of the problem.

If he wants to stay here, then he will also need to make some changes in the way he does things. Like making players more accountable, work on some of his coaching weaknesses, and give the coordinators more freedom. We can't be the slowest team in college football if you want to attract the better players. He's lost a number of fans. Will he do what's necessary to win them back? Right now I think there will be a substantial drop in season tickets next season.


As the old saying says, "you are what your record says you are." So, regardless of expectations, Stoops has performed about the same. So, if you are disappointed over the last 3 yrs specifically.....it's on you, not Stoops. He's performed about the same over the last 8 yrs. We've seen similar mistakes, similar playstyle, similar, similar.


As far as the rest of your post. I agree. If he wants to push past where he has gotten to, then he has to change. Agreed. But it doesn't look like he's trending downward as much as he's hit a plateau.
 
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No conspiracy, just how he presents himself for the over 40 years I’ve listened to HIM.

You like to throw out the insults, but RARELY if EVER provide any knowledge of the topic you complain about.
I've listened to him for years as well and what you are saying is batshit crazy. He has never said anything remotely close to what you assert. You actually believe he hates Kentucky fans and actively roots against and tries to sabotage UK FB. What kind of freaking knowledge are you looking for? There are no official Dick Gabriel Ky hate averages. That lives exclusively in your imagination.
 
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, not even taking in to account the abysmal Covid year.
IMO anybody trying to equate normal CFB evaluation of the 2020 covid year with its arbitrary rule changes on the fly is pretty foolish

Even so....5-6 against 10 games SEC plus a bowl against an 8-3 top ACC team is hardly disastrous
 
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I've listened to him for years as well and what you are saying is batshit crazy.
I suppose you think the old “Indian Burial Ground” theory is too?

Hey, all I’m sayin’ is that the stadium construction took place before federal regulations required historical and archeological studies.
 
IMO anybody trying to equate normal CFN evaluation of the 2020 covid year with its arbitrary rule changes on the fly is pretty foolish

Even so....5-6 against 10 games SEC plus a bowl against an 8-3 top ACC team is hardly disastrous
And one of Stoops’ wins against a ranked team, NC State.
 
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I've listened to him for years as well and what you are saying is batshit crazy. He has never said anything remotely close to what you assert. You actually believe he hates Kentucky fans and actively roots against and tries to sabotage UK FB. What kind of freaking knowledge are you looking for? There are no official Dick Gabriel Ky hate averages. That lives exclusively in your imagination.
You have just went 10 steps further in your perception of what I said and it has become a pattern with you.

Where did I say he “hates Kentucky fans”??? Or “roots against and tries to sabotage UK FB??!!!!

Heck, he WORKS for the UK Network!!

I NEVER DID!!!

What I did say Is that he tries to put LIMITS on fans expectations, which is EXACTLY what he did in that article.

You blow EVERYTHING I say out of proportions!!!
 
Well, yea I work here, albeit voluntarily

That was what they call a rhetorical question. Everyone knows you're a mod.


Many including myself have thought we had a chance to push for an East title a couple of times, but that is NOT "passing Georgia and Alabama". In any sport the goal should be to win, so my goal and that of many was to first win the division we play in, that has been also the goal of the team that we support, but a goal is infinitely different than an expectation.

Lol. Let's take the emption and confusion out of it for you and do the simple math for you.

The people that have been saying repeatedly, year after year, on this message board, from the time Stoops first arrived, that Stoops can't take us to the next level, and the next, and the next that he HAS taken us to, DO expect us to surpass Georgia and Alabama, because "pushing for the East title" which we have done, is not good enough.

If we win 11 or 12 games, which is exactly the situation I stated that takes us beyond 10 wins, means we're pushing or passing Georgia. We can't win an SEC East without going through Georgia to get there. So, to say no one is expecting that, when they want to get rid of our current coach because he hasn't surpassed 10 wins, is saying this very thing.

Do the math

If anyone on here expects us to "pass Georgia and Alabama" please respond accordingly.

They won't because they are cowards. They will just keep saying "this" is not good enough, and our coach "can't do it" until the next time that he proves them wrong, and then they'll disappear like they always have. Maybe you're one of them, and that's why you can't look at it objectively at all.

Not my problem
 
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IMO anybody trying to equate normal CFB evaluation of the 2020 covid year with its arbitrary rule changes on the fly is pretty foolish

Even so....5-6 against 10 games SEC plus a bowl against an 8-3 top ACC team is hardly disastrous
What part of "not taking that year into account" did you not understand.

Everyone knows there were absolutely no conclusions that could be garnered from that crazy year. No need to even bring it up, really. Other than some posters jump on here with "covid" excuses for poor performance.

That year is an outlier regardless of results, good or bad.
 
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We are always much closer to the bottom than Bama, Georgia, Texas, LSU, and Florida because of talent base alone.

A few slip ups. A few guys that don't pan out. A few guys that don't want to work hard and earn their reps and instead just transfer. That's all that separated us from bowl eligibility for decades. That's all that separates us now from 9 and 10 win seasons.

Georgia and Alabama have top 5 recruiting classes stacked 5 classes deep. We have done incredibly well by Kentucky standards. Remember when 4 star recruits were REALLY RARE and we might have 1 every 4th recruiting class on average? I do. It's a HUGE LEAP from THERE to multiple 4 stars in each recruiting class for 6 or 7 classes straight. We've also added an occasional 5 star about like we once added 4 stars.

What will it take to land more of them, or instead PRODUCE them as this staff did with Josh Allen?

It will take massive NIL funding for 3 successive classes and then execution into success. There's no magic coaching button you can push to get a 20th ranked class to be as talented as a 5th ranked class. It doesn't exist. There's no magic button that brings multiple 5 stars into your program without other 5 stars and proven success. You have to find the players that can become the next Josh Allen, get them to stay, work hard, and have the heart and fire of a champion, ALONG WITH players that might be close to Deone Walker's level.

We had a coach that could do that in OL coach and former Wildcat JSchlarman. We now know just how RARE and INCREDIBLY SPECIAL that man was, and how impossible it might be to replace him. We need 10 Schlarmans, 1 for each coaching position, to get us to where we want to go. And we have to do that in this transient sports culture....

We also need fans that will be supportive of the program regardless of setbacks, rather than ready to fire the coach and sht on the players at the first bad outing. We need boosters with money to burn on NIL. We need better support from the administration to really make FB recruiting look like it's a top priority for UK.
Very well said.
 
This man has been a part of UK Football longer than some of you have been alive. This post by him is spot on and worth the read. Speedy recovery Mr. Gabriel, we hope to see you back on the sidelines next season.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by Dick Gabriel of the UK Sports Network

This week's news about Mark Stoops and Texas A&M has, once again, touched off a discussion about his merits as UK coach and, not surprisingly, they seem to be divided generationally.

There will always be people who judge you by your most recent game or season - that's the nature of sports.

But I have to smile about people who profess to be UK fans who scoff at what Stoops has accomplished (and yes, I'm a member of the UK Sports Network, so take this for what it's worth).

People need to remember just two things: When Stoops arrived, Kentucky had hit rock bottom, losing to Vanderbilt, in a blowout, in a Commonwealth Stadium that was nearly empty by game's end. And this, not long after a run by Rich Brooks who had led his team what at the time seemed like an amazing run of four straight bowl games.

And now Stoops has produced twice as many bowl teams and a pair of 10-win seasons, not to mention a couple of times flirted with the SEC East title. But many fans, who weren't around for the Bad Old Days, dismiss that to fortunate scheduling for a guy who is one of 10 highest-paid coaches in the country.

And while admitting the past two seasons have seen the Wildcats fall short of expectations, there is one thing his harshest critics must accept - he's doing it at an unprecedented time of wealth in the SEC. Top "football" schools have never spent more on coaches, facilities and recruiting. If a program is backing up right now, it's not for lack of trying or interest. Competition in this conference has never been keener.

And still, some folks expect Kentucky to overtake and pass the Georgias and Alabamas of the world. The same people find abhorrent a similar notion when it comes to basketball - no team should EVER blow past Kentucky when it comes to hoops, even though it would take fewer players than it does in football.

Stoops has raised the talent level at UK, without question. But talent is not exactly dropping off within the teams he's trying to chase down. Always remember this: In the end, it's talent that matters.

That's why we choose up sides in the schoolyard.
Tell it brother, I remember our history since 1970. We have had some success, but, overall we sucked. Stoops has made us respectable and at least stopped the losing seasons.
 
Has there been any suggestion Barnhart was going to offer the job to Coen?
Yes. According to unsubstantiated reports from the media, MB had three interviews set up for Sunday, one of which would be named the new head coach before the end of the day in an effort to keep the 24 class intact and hopefully keep our best players out of the portal.
1. Jon Sumrall
2. Liam Coen
3. Brad White

That move also prevented Coen and White from committing to go with CMS to A&M, which was Mitch's main objective for those two.
 
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We also need fans that will be supportive of the program regardless of setbacks, rather than ready to fire the coach and sht on the players at the first bad outing. We need boosters with money to burn on NIL. We need better support from the administration to really make FB recruiting look like it's a top priority for UK.
Post of the fu@kin’ Century, @Girthang!
 
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That move also prevented Coen and White from committing to go with CMS to A&M, which was Mitch's main objective for those two.
If true, and it is entirely reasonable, Barnhart is a genius.

He simultaneously froze A & M out, and let three fairly young, very successful men think they are next in line.

Barnhart ain’t stupid!!
 
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If true, and it is entirely reasonable, Barnhart is a genius.

He simultaneously froze A & M out, and let three fairly young, very successful men think they are next in line.

Barnhart ain’t stupid!!
Which also tells you this was not a last minute deal with CMS and A&M. His agent had already approached MB with a request for more pay/contract extension, and MB said NO.

So obviously, CMS had notified MB that he was leaving UK for A&M.

Still not sure how that will playout for CMS and MB relationship going forward.

Basically, MB prevented CMS from plundering the staff/program on his way out the door to A&M.

Had to be an uncomfortable conversation when A&M pulled the offer or CMS changed his mind.
 
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