Thorough written breakdown by Bilas of the UK-Providence game

[Smashcat]

He did this for every game.
No. 6 KENTUCKY vs. No. 11 PROVIDENCE

How Kentucky can win: Offensive versatility, offensive rebounding, interior scoring, 3-point shooting. Kentucky has been puzzling, and no team has been written off and deemed back in the mix so many times in a single year. This season has been a roller-coaster ride, but Kentucky is still capable of winning in the tournament and perhaps heading into the Dance with some doubt is a good thing for this group. Last year, Kentucky was bounced in the first round by Saint Peter's, so that is likely to be brought up by John Calipari in the locker room. Kentucky's chances start with Oscar Tsheibwe, the National Player of the Year last season who is the leading scorer and rebounder, and one of the best rebounders in Kentucky history. He is often doubled in the post, but he is often put into ball-screen situations on defense. The keys are the perimeter players. Antonio Reeves is capable of big scoring games and is Kentucky's best shooter, both from deep and on runners and floaters. Jacob Toppin is an explosive athlete with a good midrange game and Cason Wallace is one of the best defenders in the country. With Sahvir Wheeler questionable, Wallace needs to be stable at the point, which he has shown this season. The Wildcats make open 3s, but shoot barely 50% from 2-point range, ranking outside of the top 175 in the nation. Kentucky is an outstanding offensive rebounding team, grabbing 38% of its misses, ranking third nationally.

How Kentucky can lose: Average ball-screen defense, consistent inconsistency. Kentucky has been better lately, but this team has not been able to string together consistent performances. But, when its back is against the wall, Kentucky has performed.

Best win: A pair of wins over Tennessee.

Worst loss: South Carolina 71-68 as a 20-point favorite.

Standout player: Oscar Tshiebwe (reigning POY) can put up cartoon numbers: 37 points and 24 boards against Georgia on Jan. 17. His free throw shooting has taken a minor step forward.

Efficiency: The defense has fallen off from last season (was top 50, is now top 100), but the offense is among the top 25 in the country.

High-scoring game: Antonio Reeves, the Illinois State transfer, is more than capable: 37 points against Arkansas and 27 against Mississippi (6-7 3s), one of a handful of 20+ point games he's had this season.

Nugget: Kentucky did not lose a regular season game when shooting over 35% from deep.

Nugget: Financial gain ... Morgan & Morgan (the largest law firm in the country) signed NIL deals with each member of this team.

Flaw: Free throw shooting could be an issue late in games (two regulars are liabilities) as they rank outside the top 200.

How Providence can win: Offensive rebounding, offensive efficiency, Hopkins. Providence can score, sporting a top-20 offense in the nation and has a star in Kentucky transfer Bryce Hopkins, a matchup problem that averages 17 points, 9 rebounds and 2 assists in Big East play. Hopkins, who played sparingly at Kentucky, has blossomed under Ed Cooley, one of the most underrated coaches in the country. Ed Croswell has been excellent over the last five games of the regular season, putting up 17 points and nine rebounds on 60% from the field.

How Providence can lose: Overall team defense, 3-point shooting. Providence is solid defensively, but not spectacular. The Friars are not a rim-protecting team, but they play hard and compete. Providence ranks outside of the top 70 in the nation in defensive efficiency. And while Providence can shoot, hitting 36% from deep, this is not a team that hunts 3-point shots. Only 31% of the Friars' attempts are 3s, among the bottom 50 in the country in 3s launched.

Best win: Jan. 4 vs. UConn (73-61, outrebounded the supersized Huskies 41-39)

Worst loss: Nov. 20 vs. Saint Louis (76-73, allowed 58% shooting inside the arc).

Standout player: Sophomore forward Bryce Hopkins (Kentucky transfer: had 60 points last season for the Wildcats ... had 60 points in his first 4 games with the Friars).

Rebounding: Among the best in overall rebound differential, thanks in large part to grabbing over 32% of their own missed shots.

High scoring game: Ed Croswell and Bryce Hopkins both have had games where they carried the team, each with 20 point game streaks. Hopkins showed the true game-breaker potential in the double overtime win vs. Marquette with 29 points and 23 rebounds, the first 20-20 game by a Friar since 2010.

Nugget: Providence ranks 15th in rebound rate, after ranking 185th in rebound rate in 2021, and 65th in 2022.

Flaw: While the defense is Top 100, Providence ranks among the Bottom 100 in forcing turnovers.

Winner: Kentucky. Off of a loss to Vanderbilt, and off of last year's embarrassing loss to Saint Peter's, Kentucky wins this one.

Upset Chance: One Glass Slipper, but only because it wouldn't be that big of an upset. Kentucky is very up and down.

 

[chroix]

I’ve got a feeling Reeves comes out hot and we roll in game one.

 

[CalipariCapo]

I’ve got a feeling Reeves comes out hot and we roll in game one.

I just don’t see it. He crumbles in pressure moments. He played horribly against all of the big name teams on our schedule (especially non con) and completely crumbled at the free throw line and overall efficiency against Vandy in the sec tournament. I don’t see a single player on our team that has that junkyard dawg mentality, put the team on their back, and refuse to lose. Oscar will try to be that, but he’ll try and do too much and end up making negative plays instead of positive plays. They have the physical talent, just not the mental fortitude, to make a deep run. Going deep in March may not be some of these guys top priority either.

 

[Runnin'Ramel]

Reeves better find his FT stroke.

 

[chroix]

I just don’t see it. He crumbles in pressure moments. He played horribly against all of the big name teams on our schedule (especially non con) and completely crumbled at the free throw line and overall efficiency against Vandy in the sec tournament. I don’t see a single player on our team that has that junkyard dawg mentality, put the team on their back, and refuse to lose. Oscar will try to be that, but he’ll try and do too much and end up making negative plays instead of positive plays. They have the physical talent, just not the mental fortitude, to make a deep run. Going deep in March may not be some of these guys top priority either.

37 against Arkansas.

 

[fabcat]

I just don’t see it. He crumbles in pressure moments. He played horribly against all of the big name teams on our schedule (especially non con) and completely crumbled at the free throw line and overall efficiency against Vandy in the sec tournament. I don’t see a single player on our team that has that junkyard dawg mentality, put the team on their back, and refuse to lose. Oscar will try to be that, but he’ll try and do too much and end up making negative plays instead of positive plays. They have the physical talent, just not the mental fortitude, to make a deep run. Going deep in March may not be some of these guys top priority either.

I would consider Arkansas a Big name opponent. They have 2 lottery picks in the backcourt and Reeves put up 37 on 17 shots.

 

[NociHTTP]

Anyone read so many of these articles, and listened to so many of these guys, that almost everything they say is just a mish-mash of words that each have about 5 synonyms, that they draw out of hats with the tops of their pens, and spit out the tips? I mean, how many different teams could you possibly write an article about, and so distinctively different each time?

 

[CalipariCapo]

37 against Arkansas.

Is that really a big name though? Sure they have talent but they are just as discombobulated as we are.

 

[CalipariCapo]

I would consider Arkansas a Big name opponent. They have 2 lottery picks in the backcourt and Reeves put up 37 on 17 shots.

As I mentioned, they’re just as discombobulated as we are this year. They have talent, but they never put it together. They barely made the tourney and they beat us in Rupp. They’re closer to a UNC than a Gonzaga.

 

[chroix]

Is that really a big name though? Sure they have talent but they are just as discombobulated as we are.

Pretty high pressure game. Also Providence is an 11 seed. Not like we’re playing Magic and the Lakers. But I hear you on being skeptical. We’ll see soon enough.

 

[Bluegrass79]

Take it to the basket and let the reffs do their job

 

[fastpaste101]

I think we show up with a pulse and win...but not by much.

 

[yabbadabbadoo]

He picked Duke to go to the finals. That’s all you need to know about his analysis.

 

[UKNothinButNet]

He did this for every game.
No. 6 KENTUCKY vs. No. 11 PROVIDENCE

Nugget: Financial gain ... Morgan & Morgan (the largest law firm in the country) signed NIL deals with each member of this team.

There’s a problem... fat dumb and happy so to speak, just like the coach.

 

[bleedingblue2767]

UK -4 - I think Cal does another choke job and we lose by at least 6

 

[JerseyCat84]

He picked Duke to go to the finals. That’s all you need to know about his analysis.

He IS a Dukie but it’s not really that farfetched

 

[rivercatinfl]

Shocker: They will double Oscar.
If he can distribute the. all to the open man, we win. As someone said, if he tries to do to much, he is flawed and we lose.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

Is that really a big name though? Sure they have talent but they are just as discombobulated as we are.

No. No game we win is a big game. It’s only a big game if we lose.

Cal survives in wins. Gets outcoached in losses.

Wins are on the players. Losses are on Cal.

 

[ukcatz12]

Is that really a big name though? Sure they have talent but they are just as discombobulated as we are.

Who cares about the name on the jersey. It was a big time environment against a solid team on the road with great crowd. He rose to the occasion no doubt.

 

[Ukgold]

He left out free throws

 

[fastpaste101]

What an analysis. The man has a death grip on the obvious.

 

[CalipariCapo]

Who cares about the name on the jersey. It was a big time environment against a solid team on the road with great crowd. He rose to the occasion no doubt.

I’m not denying that he played well. I loved his performance that day. But I do care about the name on the jersey and I wish he would’ve done that against a top 5 team like Kansas or Gonzaga to really give me some confidence that he can do that for 6 games against the toughest competition in the toughest tournament in arguably all of sports. I hope I’m wrong, I just don’t see it.

 

[CalipariCapo]

No. No game we win is a big game. It’s only a big game if we lose.

Cal survives in wins. Gets outcoached in losses.

Wins are on the players. Losses are on Cal.

If you’re implying that I’m a cal hater, then you’ve missed the mark. You’re telling me that you have complete confidence in this team going into the tournament based off what you’ve seen this year? In the last 5 years? Not just on the court but within the program as a whole. We are discombobulated and so is Arkansas. Those are the facts lol. I hope like hell we bring home number 9, but I wouldn’t bet the house on it. Hell, I wouldn’t bet $50 and a pack of cigs for us to get past Providence.

 

[KentuckyDad]

I just don’t see it. He crumbles in pressure moments. He played horribly against all of the big name teams on our schedule (especially non con) and completely crumbled at the free throw line and overall efficiency against Vandy in the sec tournament. I don’t see a single player on our team that has that junkyard dawg mentality, put the team on their back, and refuse to lose. Oscar will try to be that, but he’ll try and do too much and end up making negative plays instead of positive plays. They have the physical talent, just not the mental fortitude, to make a deep run. Going deep in March may not be some of these guys top priority either.

Idk I think Oscar and Cason are dawgs

 

[ArtLaibsGhost]

He picked Duke to go to the finals. That’s all you need to know about his analysis.

I have seen Duke play lately and they are VASTLY improved from earlier in season. That stand a much better chance of doing it than we do. Frankly I would be confident we could beat 5hem , but based on our performance this year I' m not confident we can beat anyone in this tourney

 

[JimBR]

One missing element from the analysis is how will the game be called by the officials. If they allow grabbing and holding Oscar and a lot of off the ball physical play we'll be in trouble.

 

[yabbadabbadoo]

He IS a Dukie but it’s not really that farfetched

Yea
I watched him play at Duke and it is far fetched

 

[LmdCat]

I’ve got a feeling Reeves comes out hot and we roll in game one.

That will only happen if SOS decides to make Reeves the focal point of the offense. If goes through Oscar, we see another Vandy repeat.

 

[TheBlueMax]

I just don’t see it. He crumbles in pressure moments. He played horribly against all of the big name teams on our schedule (especially non con) and completely crumbled at the free throw line and overall efficiency against Vandy in the sec tournament. I don’t see a single player on our team that has that junkyard dawg mentality, put the team on their back, and refuse to lose. Oscar will try to be that, but he’ll try and do too much and end up making negative plays instead of positive plays. They have the physical talent, just not the mental fortitude, to make a deep run. Going deep in March may not be some of these guys top priority either.

Agreed. Mental fortitude is not our strong suit. We lack meanness, and a rabid dog mentality. But, I too, in golf, suffer from the same malaise, so I cannot be too critical of our guys when it is difficult at times to hit a two-foot putt. I wish I knew the secret. Being a much better pressure FT shooter than a putter, I can safely say that hours and hours of practice and repetition is key, something I did on FT's but not on the putting greens.

I do hope we get some good luck Friday that gets us started on a better tournament road--this entire program is a bit "snakebit" right now and reversing some annoying trends would be nice; however, my expectations are somewhat in check, since we all know that, all of a sudden, you do not change from who you really are. I like our chances against Kansas State if we make it to that game, but I can also envision a scenario where on Saturday morning we are all wallowing in the sorrow of another gut-wrenching and embarrassing early exit.

 

[Lempface]

Shocker: They will double Oscar.
If he can distribute the. all to the open man, we win. As someone said, if he tries to do to much, he is flawed and we lose.

I'm worried a bit he'll try to do too much himself because he feels the failure of last year. He needs to stay grounded in the team and if we get down at all not think he needs to will us to victory on his own and dig a deeper hole because he's trying to score through double and triple teams.

 

[wccat2969]

Shocker: They will double Oscar.
If he can distribute the. all to the open man, we win. As someone said, if he tries to do to much, he is flawed and we lose.

He needs to make quick decisions and passes and not let the ball stick to his hands. Not a good passer.

 

[ArtLaibsGhost]

MNHe needs to make quick decisions and passes and not let the ball stick to his hands. Not a good passer.

It also doesn't help that are guards are slow as molasses and rarely pop open for him to pass the ball to. As he waits for someone to get open he gets swarmed. Our main problem on both sides of the ball continue to be at guard and the 3 . Oscar isn't the problem

 

[CalipariCapo]

Agreed. Mental fortitude is not our strong suit. We lack meanness, and a rabid dog mentality. But, I too, in golf, suffer from the same malaise, so I cannot be too critical of our guys when it is difficult at times to hit a two-foot putt. I wish I knew the secret. Being a much better pressure FT shooter than a putter, I can safely say that hours and hours of practice and repetition is key, something I did on FT's but not on the putting greens.

I do hope we get some good luck Friday that gets us started on a better tournament road--this entire program is a bit "snakebit" right now and reversing some annoying trends would be nice; however, my expectations are somewhat in check, since we all know that, all of a sudden, you do not change from who you really are. I like our chances against Kansas State if we make it to that game, but I can also envision a scenario where on Saturday morning we are all wallowing in the sorrow of another gut-wrenching and embarrassing early exit.

Man, golf can make you want to sell your house and quit your job to turn pro one day, and the next you just want to throw your clubs away and go fishing 😂. I love it though! I’ve become a decent golfer and you’re right, it’s just constant repetition and muscle memory. There aren’t 25k plus watching us hit a 2 ft putt, but that pressure is why you come to Kentucky and prepare to make the big bucks. It comes down to either nutting up and play to their potential, or go home in embarrassing fashion.

 

[BBBLazing]

That will only happen if SOS decides to make Reeves the focal point of the offense. If goes through Oscar, we see another Vandy repeat.

Reeves scores when our offense goes through Oscar and comes back out when he is double teamed. Our offense has to go through the post.

 

[BBBLazing]

He needs to make quick decisions and passes and not let the ball stick to his hands. Not a good passer.

He also has to quit bringing the ball to his waist in the post. Too many times he gets stripped by guards because he brings the ball down where the short guys can reach it.

 

[Rockfly78]

Is that really a big name though? Sure they have talent but they are just as discombobulated as we are.

It was a huge game for Kentucky. On the road at what is widely considered the best home court advantage in CBB. That game did more for our season than any other. That game is the reason we aren’t an 8 seed.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

Interesting that offensive rebounding is so much of their offense. Oscar should be able to put a dent in that

 

[CalipariCapo]

It was a huge game for Kentucky. On the road at what is widely considered the best home court advantage in CBB. That game did more for our season than any other. That game is the reason we aren’t an 8 seed.

Arkansas is widely considered the best home court advantage in basketball? That’s a new one I’ve never heard lol. Many people would disagree and say that Duke, Kansas, and even Texas AM has better home court crowds. The fact that people are trying to prop up Arkansas as the second coming of Jesus Christ in order to inflate their confidence that this team will make a run is the exact reason why I have no confidence that we make a run lol. Arkansas was not good this year and while it was a win we needed and a game we couldn’t afford to lose, it didn’t help us all the much either. Hell, I would’ve rather been the 8 seed in Houston’s region. Maybe we should’ve lost that game lol

 

[KMKAT]

That will only happen if SOS decides to make Reeves the focal point of the offense. If goes through Oscar, we see another Vandy repeat.

All I can say is we waste so many possessions in a game like all teams, but seriously, there was a stretch in the Vandy game when they went 5 guards, and Oscar didn't touch the ball on 6 straight possessions. Explain the logic here. There's only 2 and 3 pointers.
Saying that, Providence has balanced scoring and they have a defense better than Vandy. So mark your brackets wisely even when we have 5 days to prepare for one specific team.

 

[rivercatinfl]

This Providence team has good guards. They drive to the basket alot. It's a shame UGO isn't further along. Or for that matter Collins.
A rim protector could be a big help i. this game.