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The AI thread

wildcatadam6

All-American
Mar 28, 2005
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Folks, AI is upon us. It’s not going away. It’s helpful/useful in some respects, for sure. It also has its downsides/dangers. This is the place to discuss everything AI-related. What are your thoughts? What will our world look like in 1 year? 5 years? 50 years?

Go.
 
Year 1:


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Year 5:

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Year 50:

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Here's my take on what is going to happen:

Already:
  • Big companies are running their enterprise software on SAP and Oracle, but that sits on hyperscaler technology like AWS and Google Cloud.
  • AWS and Google Cloud are selling solutions that take that data and solve complex business challenges using AI with that data
  • SAP, Oracle and other enterprise software companies are adding AI to do the roles that people used to do.
Starting Now / Soon:
  • In the short run, you're going to see pretty significant business improvement due to the use of these tools.
  • Big companies use a lot of 3rd party labor for back office support. They will shed these jobs first.
  • Then companies will start shedding lower level jobs - slowly at first - but then with greater speed.
  • White collar job market starts to show weakness - then goes into full recession.
Positive Impacts:
  • If you have capital invested, this is going to be fantastic for a while. Although you better be invested in the right stuff.
  • I would assume if you are a patient you're going to like the benefits AI provides in terms of treatments
  • Costs will (hopefully) go down - so as a consumer you'll be pretty happy.
Negative Impacts: Anybody who has specialized knowledge is going to be in trouble (like me).

The killer where all bets are off:
  • Humanoids: I am hearing that in 3 years we'll basically have humanoids that will be as good as a human in many blue-collar related tasks, but it will be smarter than any human that ever lived. This, at scale, will end a significant portion of work.
My guess for a short-run scenario:
  • Companies are going to adopt a lot of this stuff
  • People are going to start losing their jobs and get really pissed off
  • Government is going to get involved and license where AI can be used
  • Monied interests are going to expand that to a lot of use cases
  • Some sort of UBI is going to get implemented
 
Remember when self driving cars were right around the corner?

The reason you hear about AI now is that's is a product. Someday, it'll do things. But right now, were just hearing the marketing spiel. It's basically a search engine that can provide results you can use to maybe copy and paste in to other screens.
 
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I read a week or two ago that a universal income will be necessary because of the massive shift in jobs lost.
I can believe that. In just my working career I’ve seen some manufacturing facilities use half the workforce to get the same level of production. That’s primarily due to pretty basic robotics that have been improved with advances in processors, vision, etc. I can’t imagine where AI could take them in another 20 years.
 
These predictions have occurred about every single important technological innovation. Sure, things will change, but the thought of the majority of a nation being jobless in a span of a year or two strikes me as unbelievably farfetched.

It gives me great optimism that Wayne thinks it will take over because he's a waterhead who is almost universally wrong.
 
I love how all the TV commercials for AI - whether it's Google's AI or Apple's or anybody else's - have tiny fine print that says you, the user, should verify everything the AI tells you because they can't guarantee that it's accurate.

When the large language models use the entirety of the internet - and the internet is full of BS - then much of what the AIs spit out will also be BS.

On a technical forum I participate in, one of the users asked a tech question to one of the AI services. The answer was complete garbage. The user then queried the AI to show the sources it used for the answer. It immediately returned a list of sources. Several of them were not even real. It made them up. It was like a kid getting caught lying and doubling down by lying some more.
 
AI will have it's time and place in a multitude of industries, home life, etc, but we are not turning into George Jetson or Max Headroom anytime soon in regards to it "taking over". But hey, if it does, then the goverrnment cheese better have a lot of zero's on that monthly check.
 
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