Does anyone use one of the pay for research services.......Zacks, Morningstar, Motley Fool, etc? Are they worth it? What are the advantages? What are the disadvantages other than price?
Stock Advice Thread
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Maybe they help some people and I have subscribed to all of those in the past, but I tended to have my own thoughts very confused with the gurus’ thoughts...too much information for me. I have Ameritrade as my broker, which includes various researchers, and I do better as an investor when the service is included in the price. JMO, cannot give you a definite yes or no.
My main thought is that throughout all of my investing, I've done well with funds of a bunch of varieties. However, where I struggle are the individual stocks. All experts, like Buffett, talk about buying into great companies at great value. For example, I know that giants like J&J and Coke are great choices to hop on board long term.....especially for the dividends they provide. But what I struggle with is how to quickly determine when to buy in when a company is undervalued. My thought is that research companies like Zacks, etc, will be able to tell me "Hey idiot, these companies are undervalued currently......buy......"
I was a Motley Fool subscriber. About 300 for 3 years.
I think if you are new to investing, it really is a good product. Their philosophy is buy and hold good companies. Rarely sell. This fits well with my own.
Another big thing they say is winners win. Which is to say that waiting for a value buy is not always the best play. It's ok to buy a winning stock even at a high point. If it's a winner, it's going to keep on winning. I like to add to my winners even on small dips of 10%.
If you want their recs, just listen to their podcasts. They give them all for free.
I think if you are new to investing, it really is a good product. Their philosophy is buy and hold good companies. Rarely sell. This fits well with my own.
Another big thing they say is winners win. Which is to say that waiting for a value buy is not always the best play. It's ok to buy a winning stock even at a high point. If it's a winner, it's going to keep on winning. I like to add to my winners even on small dips of 10%.
If you want their recs, just listen to their podcasts. They give them all for free.
Zacks rates value, growth and momentum, but I often disagree with them. Does your brokerage have research venues? I haven’t found any service reliable on exactly when to buy or sell, often they are wrong. Buffet’s formula of intrinsic value is rather complex based on the few reads we get.
I got started as a fool---no longer. I agree with your description of their philosophy.
I'm not really going to wait for value plays........but there's almost always value plays to be had somewhere.
But thank you. Your post is exactly the kind I was looking for.
I subscribe to Paul Mampilly, ''Profits Unlimited'' service for $97 a year currently. I have been following him for a little over 2 years and really got into investing with his over his shoulder portfolio for the last year.
He is on the money much more right than wrong on his picks. I also, for one year, have been involved with his' Extreme Fortunes' service.
The volatility in that service requires you to have 'Strong Hands' as he calls it, to stay with his picks. Last year his number one pick was SENS, and it has just this past 10 days really began to take off.
He is on you tube if you want to check him out. His America 2.0 vid is full of info once you get past his 'join his service mojo'.
The info is innovative and his past success as a hedge fund manager, a highly successful one at that, is referenced often. He is a big believer in America, capitalism, and the stock market as a way to improve your financial standing in life.
New subscribers get a 'this will work guarantee' if you follow his 'rules of the road'; or a second years service in EF for no charge. He stands behind his pledge, as I am getting the 2nd year of Extreme Fortunes (EF) for free as he promised.
I am a big believer in his 'rules of the road program.' If you decide to make the plunge, make sure you read and understand that really well before you start investing in his stock portfolio. I highly recommend him and his services.
Good fortune to all!
He is on the money much more right than wrong on his picks. I also, for one year, have been involved with his' Extreme Fortunes' service.
The volatility in that service requires you to have 'Strong Hands' as he calls it, to stay with his picks. Last year his number one pick was SENS, and it has just this past 10 days really began to take off.
He is on you tube if you want to check him out. His America 2.0 vid is full of info once you get past his 'join his service mojo'.
The info is innovative and his past success as a hedge fund manager, a highly successful one at that, is referenced often. He is a big believer in America, capitalism, and the stock market as a way to improve your financial standing in life.
New subscribers get a 'this will work guarantee' if you follow his 'rules of the road'; or a second years service in EF for no charge. He stands behind his pledge, as I am getting the 2nd year of Extreme Fortunes (EF) for free as he promised.
I am a big believer in his 'rules of the road program.' If you decide to make the plunge, make sure you read and understand that really well before you start investing in his stock portfolio. I highly recommend him and his services.
Good fortune to all!
I started to watch him on Youtube when you mentioned him before. Thank you for that. He's informative. The "over the shoulder" thing......does he basically tell you what stocks he's buying/selling and why?.....what's that about?
Another guy I started watching on Youtube recently is Rule #1 Investing with Phil Town. He's a big Buffett/Munger type investor.....
Of course, none of the gurus could have timed the drop the last two days, lots of cautions, but we see those warnings 365 days a year! I knew the risk, yet it was always frustrating when I paid for investing advice and lost money that same (sometimes long) period of time. Zacks’ highest rated guru a few years ago got overconfident and told his clients (including me) to sell out and buy his various shorting ETF picks during the current bull market. He eventually was let go by them, but Zacks contributed by bragging about his amazing skill in timing the market. Honestly, he was a very good writer, his ideas made sense, patient investor, but I believe he got over confident in himself, hurt a lot of his clients’ portfolios. I kicked my own self for believing literally everything he said, but I’ve since recovered from a tough year or two.
Analysts are often late to the party and value buys can sometimes become value traps. I think the approach that focuses on long term secular trends and fortress balance sheets is a great place to start. JNJ is a good example of both I would think.
What I did was put JNJ on a stock list and checked on it at least once a week, reading the news, checking the charts, some fundamental analysis on Yahoo Finance noting what amount of decline might be a good buy. Stocks like this aren't too volatile and I figured those are good buys 2%-5% lower or so. Picked it up first at $129 in December 2018 then again at $127, 8 months later. It's trading near $150 now that the opioid settlement numbers are more determined. Yet I plan on keeping it for the long haul, collecting 2.5% in dividends as I wait to accumulate more. It's quite small now compared to even JPM in my IRA.
I was looking closely at JNJ this week, great choice, ABT another good value play long term.
For many, many yrs I've come to the realization that companies like JNJ, Coke, PG, Hormel......should be included in just about anyone's portfolio. They're ultra steady companies that pay steady dividends no matter what the market does.
And will bounce back quicker usually after bear markets.
What's the general consensus here on the direction the market is going? The 30 year treasury yield hitting its lowest level ever seems to be an ominous sign. I'm concerned about Monday and beyond. I'm torn between staying aggressive or taking a more conservative turn.
I keep telling myself to look into more boring blue chip stalwarts. When it comes time though I opt for growth. Can't help it. I still have over 10 yrs to retirement (60 is the goal for semi retirement).
For clarification --- What time horizon/perspective?
It makes a big difference.
To keep this answer short...he presents ideas on what stock(s) to buy and put in your portfolio if you decide you like it or not and his reasons why.
He normally has about 25-30 stocks at any given time in the portfolio in Profits Unlimited and Extreme Fortune.(two distinct subscriber services he has). You are looking over his shoulder as to what those stocks are.
Once or twice a month he will pick a new stock to add as he will also announce one to sell. It may be a sell for a gain, or it could be for a loss and he is weeding out the stocks that are not doing as well as he would like them to and he identifies one that likely will do better. I followed him for a year before ever investing any money in his picks.
You get daily emails and a monthly newsletter. Timely text alerts for a buy or a sale. His portfolio is for informational purposes as he is not a financial adviser. But he is very in tune with the mega trends that are disrupting the stock market now. His personal story is one of living the American dream. His father is from India and sent him to the USA for college and the rest is history. Another one of his vids tell that story too.
Hope this answers your question. Side note: When he was a hedge fund manager on wall street his firm and fund won a huge contest to improve the value of the fund the most in a years time. If I recall correctly that was in 2008, and you know what the market was like in that year. Check him out some more and see if he strikes your fancy. He has my total trust right now. Best at what he does that I have come to find.
Good fortune to you!!!
401k. My options are: let it ride (I'm close to 50 years old, so I've got time); or cash out of stocks (pretty much all in on large caps) and put my money in bonds (part or whole). I realize that.
What I'm really trying to do is what everyone wishes they could do: Time transactions to go conservative when the stock market goes down, then go aggressive when the market goes up. So I'm trying to get a measure of what people are feeling about where the market is going, and if the feeling is that it's headed down what percentage you expect the market to drop before it rebounds (and I should get aggressive again).
I'm fairly beat and need to get some rest. I'm not a market timer-type per se, nor one who uses EW/Fibs or any other predictive-type models. I do keep track of price and volume, market breadth indicators, economic indicators, etc., in using that information as a general guide.
Between tomorrow and Monday morning, I can provide some information on what those market internals, etc., are showing/suggesting and/or how I interpret them (opinion).
Catch-up later.
I have only a brief moment this morning, but wanted to share something I came across. The below was written by another person, named Larry Tentarelli. Where he mentions "PTJ", that would be Paul Tudor Jones. What he means by 50% camp is that many of the greatest traders have "win rates" of 50% or less on trades. (they maximize winners/minimize losers)
This is a "copy -n- paste" from Larry Tentarelli meant as just a tidbit for thought:
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Ignore predictions, forecasts and market calls
I realized log ago that nobody can consistently call market moves. Not the CNBC Guru, or internet Superstar. If PTJ and Soros are in the 50% or so camp, what makes us think that anyone else can “call” markets better than these Billionaires can trade them? Predictions are no better than a coin toss. Incorrect predictions are swept under the rug, and when one lands right, the forecaster claims Guru status.
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This is a "copy -n- paste" from Larry Tentarelli meant as just a tidbit for thought:
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Ignore predictions, forecasts and market calls
I realized log ago that nobody can consistently call market moves. Not the CNBC Guru, or internet Superstar. If PTJ and Soros are in the 50% or so camp, what makes us think that anyone else can “call” markets better than these Billionaires can trade them? Predictions are no better than a coin toss. Incorrect predictions are swept under the rug, and when one lands right, the forecaster claims Guru status.
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Lot of carnage out there today.
Whatcha picking up?
I went for ROKU, LVGO, and CHWY.
Was going to get them anyway. We'll see how long this corona mania goes and maybe pick up more even cheaper.
Whatcha picking up?
I went for ROKU, LVGO, and CHWY.
Was going to get them anyway. We'll see how long this corona mania goes and maybe pick up more even cheaper.
Was hoping for a little more guidance, but I think the damage is mostly done after today, so I'm letting it ride.
I am mostly invested, but have some cash on the sideline, I think this is a buying opportunity, the virus is wildly overblown hysteria, as far as the threat of mass death, but it does affect the economy of Asia . . . but market will go back up again, and probably sooner, rather than later.
Article in this week's Barons speculated that the coronavirus could take $1 Trillion out of world economy.
IMO the market was a little over bought before this anyway and it was just looking for an excuse for a correction.
IMO the market was a little over bought before this anyway and it was just looking for an excuse for a correction.
I think there might be the seeds of a combination of Bernie Sanders and the virus in play. Wall Street totally freaks out when the word socialist is even mentioned unless it has the word corporation attached. Then it's ignored completely. The free money destination is all that matters. When that talk returns, the market will bottom and ignore anything negative in its path.
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To tag onto what Deeeefense mentioned where he opined after yesterday's close: "IMO the market was a little over bought before this anyway"
I like to look at the below to keep things in perspective. At today's close, here's where we stand.......
I like to look at the below to keep things in perspective. At today's close, here's where we stand.......
- Nasdaq Composite +14.1% form the October low (intra-day low on Oct. 3rd)
- S&P 500 +8.7% from the October low (intra-day low on Oct 3rd)
- Nasdaq Composite +8.1% since the Oct 25th close (broke out on next trading day, Oct. 28th)
- S&P 500 + 3.2% since Oct 25th close (broke out on next trading day, Oct 28th)
I've been a big holder of Amazon which has taken a hit along with most other tech stocks, but I'm thinking that this virus could result in increased business for Amazon as folks decide to avoid public places like Walmart, Target, and shopping malls, and instead shop online for products.
I don't hold Grubhub but that would seem to be another one that could benefit using the same logic.
I don't hold Grubhub but that would seem to be another one that could benefit using the same logic.
D, the food handlers at the restaurants are the likely culprit in spreading disease, IMO, but delivery would help avoid airborne spread for sure.
Was CPA/Advisor for 30+ years, including Deloitte and studied all the modern portfolio theory, various investment vehicles, etc., as well as for all the sections of the CFP exam to move over to investment advisory services. Ended-up not practicing in that area as a professional.
Currently trading equities, including options and spending all hours of morning and night keeping abreast as a private individual, including the never ending study of trader and market psychology (one's self as well as the crowd). Have had a passion for the markets since purchasing first shares of DPL at age 12, lol.
Yourself?
Served 25 years in the USAF as a Medical Hospital Administrator. First job as a retiree was a stockbroker for Edward Jones. That was in the 2002/03 time period and you remember what went on with the stock market during that time. Needless to say, I decided that was not what I wanted to do with the rest of my working life so I returned to the Health Care arena
I managed a Podiatry Practice in the local area here near O'Fallon, IL that had 6 locations with 5 Podiatrists and 30 medical techs and admin folks. We were a 3.5 million dollar practice when I retired for the 2nd time. Now, the wife and I are both retired and living the typical retiree life.
I like dabbling as a semi day trader in the market with an emphasis on small caps - mid caps pharma companies in the $0.50 cent to $20.00 per share range because I understand their product or service value and potential for growth.
I follow Paul Mampilly of Banyon Hill because he made his fortune that way on Wall Street and I sorta consider him my mentor as our money philosophies are tied together. I have not personally met him yet. But could some day in the future. He is an interesting man. I have learned a lot about the market, investing and the coming mega trends that will shape America 2.0 for the next 10-20 years or so.
Thanks for asking.
Good Fortune to All! Have Strong Hands Now!!!
I managed a Podiatry Practice in the local area here near O'Fallon, IL that had 6 locations with 5 Podiatrists and 30 medical techs and admin folks. We were a 3.5 million dollar practice when I retired for the 2nd time. Now, the wife and I are both retired and living the typical retiree life.
I like dabbling as a semi day trader in the market with an emphasis on small caps - mid caps pharma companies in the $0.50 cent to $20.00 per share range because I understand their product or service value and potential for growth.
I follow Paul Mampilly of Banyon Hill because he made his fortune that way on Wall Street and I sorta consider him my mentor as our money philosophies are tied together. I have not personally met him yet. But could some day in the future. He is an interesting man. I have learned a lot about the market, investing and the coming mega trends that will shape America 2.0 for the next 10-20 years or so.
Thanks for asking.
Good Fortune to All! Have Strong Hands Now!!!
Save that cash ladies and gentlemen.........save that cash........
......must be ready should the market continue to correct......
.....Personally, I would like to see dips of Microsoft or NVIDIA.......for some reason, I would like to strengthen my position.
......must be ready should the market continue to correct......
.....Personally, I would like to see dips of Microsoft or NVIDIA.......for some reason, I would like to strengthen my position.
I'm really looking at Microsoft right now. I already have a small position in it. I like the dividend/growth possibility. It's a well ran company with good income. It's well diverse.......with software, cloud, etc. It'll probably be in the thick of the AI revolution when it comes around. Since the company started trading (around 1990) it's had a very smooth growth curve/chart.
.....And it's currently on a dip.......
P/E is about 27 right now which isn't great, but......
Does anyone think it'll drop much further?
.....And it's currently on a dip.......
P/E is about 27 right now which isn't great, but......
Does anyone think it'll drop much further?
