The only thing I know is that politicians are looking for anywhere they can get a buck. And they won't care if it was a post tax contribution 10, 20 or 30 years ago.
Stock Advice Thread
- Thread starter dgtatu01
- Start date
Not going to happen. Just like the mortgage interest deduction isn't going anywhere. Too many people are too heavily invested. It's political suicide regardless of party.
Dynamics have changed in recent years because of mergers, acquisitions, ect. I read somewhere more larger corps remain private these days because they value their autonomy and independence. Chick fil A and HE Butts are examples.
My personal stock picking picking falls into two time-frames: short and long. Short covers a 1-2 year time-frame while long spans 5+ years. In the short term, just because XYZ corp pays a dividend greater than 4%, one should not necessarily equate the issue to a good investment. For long term, start with the 30 Dow Industrial stocks and go from there. I'll expand more on it later.
In my opinion, some other great experts on this board are @Dennis Reynolds and @Deeeefense. Those gents understand the present landscape much better than I. Read everything they write about the subject at least 2x.
There have been zillions of books written about how to pick stocks and it depends on your goals and risk tolerances. My best advise is DON'T unless you are willing to put the necessary time into learning how to pick stocks which means leaning about fundamental and technical analysis and then spending the time each week to study the markets and making your decisions.
If you want to roll your own, to avoid the cost of paying a broker or financial advisor, but don't have the time or desire to pick your own stocks you can invest in an exchange traded fund (ETF) that mimics the S&P 500 such as SPY or if you want to leverage your investment SSO which mimics twice the S&P 500. Over time the S&P will gain around 9% which is better than 80% of the mutual funds that people waste their money on.
I pick my own stocks and use several different research sources, the best of which is Investools. I also use Tip Ranks to get a complete view of analyst recommendations, hedge fund buying/selling, blogger opinions and insider trading activity. If you just want to pick a few high quality dividend paying blue chip stocks, the best source for that is Investment Quality Trends. Their track record beats all similar strategies over time. These sources aren't free but if you're serious about investing they will pay for themselves in short order.
Good luck!
28 years old:
I have contributed 10% into my company 403(b) since being hired. I have 8 years built up on that. Amazing how large the account balance already is.
I have contributed $5,500 the last two years to a Roth IRA. I plan to just do this every year. I let my buddy who is a "Dennis" of the world and a financial guru handle my account. I believe the last time I checked I was up about 8% on the year.
I have a decent nest egg in the bank.
I am 100% debt free, pay $450 a month to live in my house (still renting)
Make decent loot for my age. I ended up figuring out that I use less than 18% of my net income each month for bills (Rent, Gym, Insurance, Cell, ect). Not including grocery, gas or entertainment.
Goal by 30 is to put 40%-50% down on a house. Just making sure I am going to be sticking around Lexington long enough to make it worth while. It can all change in the blink of an eye but I like where I'm at now. Ahead of 90% of my friends at age 28.
I have contributed 10% into my company 403(b) since being hired. I have 8 years built up on that. Amazing how large the account balance already is.
I have contributed $5,500 the last two years to a Roth IRA. I plan to just do this every year. I let my buddy who is a "Dennis" of the world and a financial guru handle my account. I believe the last time I checked I was up about 8% on the year.
I have a decent nest egg in the bank.
I am 100% debt free, pay $450 a month to live in my house (still renting)
Make decent loot for my age. I ended up figuring out that I use less than 18% of my net income each month for bills (Rent, Gym, Insurance, Cell, ect). Not including grocery, gas or entertainment.
Goal by 30 is to put 40%-50% down on a house. Just making sure I am going to be sticking around Lexington long enough to make it worth while. It can all change in the blink of an eye but I like where I'm at now. Ahead of 90% of my friends at age 28.
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Well . . . since we are just tossing out opinions, mine says Roth IRAs will never be “double-taxed”. Although I would not disagree that a temptation to do so may emerge, IMO it will not happen. But, let’s just say that your prediction of a reduced tax on the maturity end comes true. That still makes the Roth a much better choice than conventional investments, and any person who has legitimately experienced success in the market over the course of his working life would not hesitate to encourage young people to pursue the Roth program still.
Damn dude I'm older than you and you are light years ahead of me! Congrats on the disciplined progress!
@AustinTXCat
Thanks guys! Where do you guys pull your data from for analysis? I think I need to spend some time doing retrospective analysis on the financial data to figure out which features the stock analysts use to project price.
if you keep to your plan, by the time you are in your mid 40s / early 50s you will be a model of success for young people in their mid to late twenties to follow.
I have always been good with money. Started working random jobs throughout high school and had money saved up before I went to college. Graduated UK with 11K in debt in 2010.
Got hired on as admin assistant at a private wealth planning firm outside of Lexington. They offered me $22,000 a year. I suffered through that job for 8 months but saved enough cash to pay down half my college debt. Took a much better job in the summer of 2011 and worked my way up in the organization. Was making about 36K a year age 23-25. Had the college debt knocked out less than 2 years after graduating.
Got a nice promotion in 2013 with much higher pay. Decided to buy a brand new car. Probably not my best decision but it's paid off. $24,000 later![[eyeroll]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/rolleye/rolleye0011.r191677.gif "Eye roll [eyeroll]")
. It just rolled over 32,000 miles. I will drive that until the wheels fall off. Keep in mind I have also chose to rent through my 10 years in Lexington and have roommates or a roommate which keeps bills extremely low.
I don't have a spouse/girlfriend and keep 100% of my money![[banana]](https://ct.yimg.com/mr/uploads/891/1682178.gif "banana [banana]")
Partnered with a business in October 2015 and have that as supplemental income to my full time job.
If you work your dick off you can do whatever you want. It gets easier if you lay the ground work and actually care during the "shitty" years. So many people we hire now just want an immediate advancement and a 50K salary from the get go. Have to put in a little time.
Back to the point of this entire thread, yes I think it's smart to invest in a Roth IRA.
Got hired on as admin assistant at a private wealth planning firm outside of Lexington. They offered me $22,000 a year. I suffered through that job for 8 months but saved enough cash to pay down half my college debt. Took a much better job in the summer of 2011 and worked my way up in the organization. Was making about 36K a year age 23-25. Had the college debt knocked out less than 2 years after graduating.
Got a nice promotion in 2013 with much higher pay. Decided to buy a brand new car. Probably not my best decision but it's paid off. $24,000 later
. It just rolled over 32,000 miles. I will drive that until the wheels fall off. Keep in mind I have also chose to rent through my 10 years in Lexington and have roommates or a roommate which keeps bills extremely low. I don't have a spouse/girlfriend and keep 100% of my money
Partnered with a business in October 2015 and have that as supplemental income to my full time job.
If you work your dick off you can do whatever you want. It gets easier if you lay the ground work and actually care during the "shitty" years. So many people we hire now just want an immediate advancement and a 50K salary from the get go. Have to put in a little time.
Back to the point of this entire thread, yes I think it's smart to invest in a Roth IRA.
I use Investors becasue it collects all the data and then complies and evaluates it for you and presents it in such a fashion to make it easy to evaluate a stock in minutes. It's owned by TD Ameritrade so if you get a brokerage account with them you can add investools at a discount. You can get a lot of free data from Yahoo Finance, but nothing compares to Investools in my mind.
Without asking you to go into great detail, when you say you can evaluate a stock in minutes, what are the things you are looking for?
The three major ones are:
The F/E ranking which is a financial evaluation of the overall health of the company.
The Financial Ranking which is based on the company's current financials
The Price Pattern which measures the strength of the chart's trend over a given period of time
Other factors are:
P/E ratio
P/E relative ration (how high or low it is now compared to historical)
EPS growth over 5 years
Accumulation Distribution, measures if institutional investors are buying or selling
Cash Flow growth over 5 years
Debt/Equity
Insider Trading
Earnings Per Share rank
all this and more including the chart and whatever chart features you want to add are visible on one page plus you can drill down into in area you want like financials, quarterly earnings, valuation models etc.
It also has a lot of other features like prepackaged and customized stock screens.
They have a learning module that teaches you how to easily interpret the information to make investment choices.
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The insider trading is much ado about nothing with a big company IMO. If you focused on that you'd think that Google execs were bailing out every month. In reality, it was a planned sale because it was part of their compensation package.
Edit: That is looking from the sell side mainly. If insiders are buying at a higher rate than normal then that is a good sign I would think.
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I'm debt averse myself but this strikes me as high as cheap as money is. Do you not think you can beat 3% in the market?
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I use Nasdaq.com when screening potential purchases. Really should employ a similar methodical approach using tools, as described by Dee, for short-term investments, but rely more on classic fundamentals (P/E, EPS, Cash flow, Debt/Equity, etc.) when purchasing through my TD Ameritrade account. One must realize his or her own tolerance for risk.
Most of my IRA money tied up in VFINX and SPY. Wish I would have had TLT the past 3-5 years for bond exposure but have had some luck with VWIMX and individual companies like WY, PM, PG and BGS because of the nice yields. Energy (VGENX) has been a huge drag for 24 months but VSIAX has offset most of that for me.
I believe you. I also believe that you are only going to get better at it. Thanks for sharing your background. Really admire your willingness to start out with mediocre pay, knowing that your time was coming. More is on the way for you.
It isn't just smart to invest in a Roth IRA, it is smart to invest in a Roth IRA program, year after year, to the maximum. And I'm sure that is what you meant. As you go forward, please encourage other young people. Let them know that they don't have to be good with money (few people truly are). I don't know if I can say I'm good with money but I have been smart with it.. There is a difference. Being smart with money, from what I've learned, simply means to avoid / minimize being stupid with it. And it is so easy to be stupid with money.
A few nights ago I saw a television program "Forged in Fire", where competitors are challenged to use their blade-smith skills to produce from scrap iron materials. One of the participants provided a narrative, stating that he felt persons in possession of a craft / skill had an inherent responsibility to "hand down" their knowledge to the next generation. I couldn't agree with that sentiment more. And in another two decades you will possess a tremendous knowledge / skill in the craft of building personal wealth.
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Currently, in my bond portfolio, I own DHY and DHF. Took a hit on both during the last meltdown, but stuck with them. Been in DHF for nearly 12 years. Junk bonds comprise roughly 25% of my total "short-term" investments via TD Ameritrade. Love the dividends.
I've stated it before and will state it again: I'm very guilty of loyalty to particular issues I've owned, over the years, Wendy's (WEN) and Bob Evans (BOBE) have been good, but not stellar. WEN spun off Tim Horton's, which financed my 2010 8-week trip back to Germany + new Brompton folding bike. Nice, and unforgettable trip. I failed to reinvest the Tim Horton's shares. Still have the bike and memories.
Got killed on National City (NCC) during the 2008-2009 meltdown. Fell in love with the juicy dividend and discount on reinvestment. That stock was my summer cabin back home in SE KY. Saw $22K ($4,800 investment) implode into a PNC takeover now worth around $2K.
Moral: The landscape changes. Be prepared.
I've stated it before and will state it again: I'm very guilty of loyalty to particular issues I've owned, over the years, Wendy's (WEN) and Bob Evans (BOBE) have been good, but not stellar. WEN spun off Tim Horton's, which financed my 2010 8-week trip back to Germany + new Brompton folding bike. Nice, and unforgettable trip. I failed to reinvest the Tim Horton's shares. Still have the bike and memories.
Got killed on National City (NCC) during the 2008-2009 meltdown. Fell in love with the juicy dividend and discount on reinvestment. That stock was my summer cabin back home in SE KY. Saw $22K ($4,800 investment) implode into a PNC takeover now worth around $2K.
Moral: The landscape changes. Be prepared.
I would not discount this as a possible risk. When investing all risks should be considered. Anything can be justified by those who have nothing to take from those who have worked and saved for nice things in the name of fairness.
I fully agree with this. I read at least 10 hours of financial news every week. I also have a Bachelors of Science in Economics and I am an actuary. I know the math, know supply and demand, and fill my brain with information constantly. If you are uninformed the stock market can be a disaster for you. You should know what all the metrics mean and how they help you value an investment. Also these are real companies that sell real products. Don't look at it as buying a stock, look at it as buying that business. You should know quite well what that companies product is and a decent idea of whether they will be able to sell it profitably in the future. This is why banks, REIT's, and some MLP's are tough. It's really hard to figure out what you are actually buying into and what they are selling. Whereas a company like Apple it's quite obvious.
All this stuff is industry specific too. Lot's of software companies have little to 0 debt, while every oil company has billions and billions of dollars of debt. Software requires renting office space, hiring developers, and a product that can be downloaded off of some rented server space so there is little to no capital investment, while oil involves buying oil fields now that will produce oil for 20-100 years into the future so their are huge amounts of capital investments required.
Bumping an older thread.
Received the check for BOBE. Realized an 8.7% annualized gain over 288 months (24 years). Forced to sell because of the Post Consumer Brands acquisition of the BOBE packaged food business.
Going forward: More DRiPs (Dividend Reinvestment Plans). I subscribe to what works for me and stick with it. Currently purchasing Proctor and Gamble (PG), RPM and Conagra (CAG) via DRiP over the next 36 months. Not happy with CAG track record up in Omaha in relation to demolition of the old Jobbers Canyon National Historic Site, and their corporate relocation to Chicago a few years ago, but Omaha campus remains in the city employing 1,200 workers. Except for PG, dividend payout for RPM and CAG looks promising for the future. I refuse to secure large, immediate positions in those companies at this time because I feel the current market is overvalued.
Received the check for BOBE. Realized an 8.7% annualized gain over 288 months (24 years). Forced to sell because of the Post Consumer Brands acquisition of the BOBE packaged food business.
Going forward: More DRiPs (Dividend Reinvestment Plans). I subscribe to what works for me and stick with it. Currently purchasing Proctor and Gamble (PG), RPM and Conagra (CAG) via DRiP over the next 36 months. Not happy with CAG track record up in Omaha in relation to demolition of the old Jobbers Canyon National Historic Site, and their corporate relocation to Chicago a few years ago, but Omaha campus remains in the city employing 1,200 workers. Except for PG, dividend payout for RPM and CAG looks promising for the future. I refuse to secure large, immediate positions in those companies at this time because I feel the current market is overvalued.
Isn't the deduction limit $10k now? Wouldn't then every rich person be pissed?
Been a great ride. I've been selling a little on the way up for about 6 months to pay bills and accumulate cash for the downturns. I sold some of a dividend play DVY, some of my energy EOG and tobacco PM after great runs.
I've bought VFH for more exposure to financials. The same reason with VEA for Europe and BLV for bonds. I've also started positions in Apple, Facebook and Broadcom near the lows. Ready to buy more in my active brokerage and IRA accounts. One IRA is pretty much left alone.
Multiple positions usually limit exposure. For example, I purchased Newell (NWL) as soon as possible after warnings were announced via CNBC. Currently up 10.27% since the announcement last week.
I'll play with financials short-term -- was into BOA heavy a few years ago -- but always go long on DRiPs focusing on consumer cyclicals.
I checked NWL. One of today's winners. Congrats! I was up double-digits on 2 of my tech stocks until today. Apple is still up 13% and hoping to buy more. Same with Facebook. Semi's are struggling right now.Multiple positions usually limit exposure. For example, I purchased Newell (NWL) as soon as possible after warnings were announced via CNBC. Currently up 10.27% since the announcement last week.
I'll play with financials short-term -- was into BOA heavy a few years ago -- but always go long on DRiPs focusing on consumer cyclicals.
I use none of Apple's or Facebook's products but so many do that I know. I'm a true believer in the services and ad revenues. Starting small right now in tech and bonds for obvious reasons.
I reinvest all dividends all the time! Compounding interest is our friend. Rising interest rates are putting pressure on some of the dividend stocks but luckily I have little exposure to REITS and utilities. I feel some pain in BGS, a consumer packaged food stock, but I am up quite a bit. Sold part of my others as mentioned. I'll be getting back in at some point.
You, sir, are a wise man. Dividend reinvestment on common stock dividends is a multiplier over time. Nevermind the political thread. Go with the $. Obama brought us out of the financial crisis. Trump has amplified it.
Time is on our side.
I'm also into GE right now. They'll get it together or the board of directors will ensure changes. Old boy, who worked the NYSE floor, told me years ago, stick with the 30 Dow Industrials and throw the rest of the list away.
I'm not into politics really but it's hard to avoid also. I try to stay somewhat informed. Twitter makes it easy.
I'm getting killed in GE and I bought more at $19. I might consider buying more lower but I need a catalyst. I know their jet engines and healthcare scanners are awesome but they made every mistake in the book. Immelt was a total disaster. It surely has to find a bottom with Flannery in charge.
I own 7 DJIA stocks total. DIS, GE, DWDP, AAPL, V, CSCO, PG.
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This thread is from so long ago that I'm not even sure what we were talking about here.
Dude, that's amazing! So, are you suggesting to buy low and sell high? I'm writing a book about investing and if you don't mind I'd like to include that quote. PM me and let me know. tks
Haha, easy now. My 2 picks in this thread as of yesterday:
BABA then $93ish now $190ish
GILD then $72ish now $82ish with a 2.3% dividend yield. (GILD is lower than market returns, so not a great pick, but not terrible either)
My problem right now is I bought BABA at $70 and it’s now about 1/2 my non retirement savings. I generally don’t like that much in 1 thing, but I think it has more room to go, maybe a lot more room.
You are thinking about the state/local property tax deduction, I think it includes income and sales tax too. That will be capped at 10k. Mortgage interest is capped at 750k of the debt. When you get to high property tax areas like California and the northeast, those are the people that are pissed.
I have 3 stocks right now in my Roth, all I've been holding since the 3rd Q of 2008.
GE (drip)
BRKB
GOOG
I also have 4 mutual funds covering international funds, energy sector, and two in high growth. I set this up to not have to manage regularly. I have a traditional ira that was a retirement rollover when I left my previous employer.
My efforts and extra capital since 2014 have gone into real estate (multi-family and overnight hospitality, with some small commercial). I also have a small contracting company.
GE (drip)
BRKB
GOOG
I also have 4 mutual funds covering international funds, energy sector, and two in high growth. I set this up to not have to manage regularly. I have a traditional ira that was a retirement rollover when I left my previous employer.
My efforts and extra capital since 2014 have gone into real estate (multi-family and overnight hospitality, with some small commercial). I also have a small contracting company.
![[thumb2]](https://ct.yimg.com/mr/uploads/891/1684387.png "Thumbs Up 2 [thumb2]")
I'm currently into 3 DJIA issues: GE, PG and PFE. PFE is another of my DRiPs. Held it nearly 25 years since the Pharmacia-Upjohn merger. GE sits in my IRA. Purchased again after a 10-year hiatus.
