I thought you would have borrowed on margin and gotten in at that sweet, sweet price...
Stock Advice Thread
- Thread starter dgtatu01
- Start date
Profile of the business, the one year chart, 2 year growth rate and PEs, long term debt to S/equity ratio, then various ratings by brokers and analysts.
Price earnings ratio, divide the stock price by the eps (readily available already calculated on Yahoo, etc). Compare that number to the growth rate % for the same period, ideally you would like the growth rate higher than the PE, but for many technology stocks, that’s rarely the case and analysts use other measures. It’s just one indicator, Warren Buffet looks at future cash flows, but to project that, you generally need more information about a company than we small time investors get.
For mutual funds I like looking at Morningstar rtgs and what the returns have been over the last 1,3,5,10 yrs.
For stocks I look at analyst opinions across various sources.
For stocks I look at analyst opinions across various sources.
And some analysts like to use price to sales, ROE, etc, then new companies have losses in the beginning and are very hard to evaluate...scary world!
Kind of like CGC, everyone thought it was a joke but it just boomed last week after earnings.
PREFACE: I have not read a single post here and have zero interest in anything I need to monitor or make trades. Just figured you guys are 100x more knowledgeable here than me so thought I’d ask:
I have two financial advisors both with different big brokerages for my many Paddock Monies.
One place I have I midlevel risk portfolio regular account that I contribute to monthly that is a combination of extra personal and business money, wanted it to be somewhat fluid and do move money in and out based on need a few times a year. Decent returns but again didn’t want this one to be balls to the wall.
Other house has all retirement and college accounts, combination of Roth/Simple IRA/Ed IRAs/529s. This is where I’m agitated. I told my guy a while back, like 10 years ago, to go balls out on everything. High risk, long term. Anyways it’s a Morgan Stanley TRAK fund (collection of mutual funds) that was always pretty heavy on emerging markets. Was told emerging markets don’t always follow US which is where they were more aggressive. Bottom line is it’s underperformed the S&P the last few years (have been times it outperformed).
For someone who is not ever going to actively manage my portfolio, is this ok? What should I be doing differently? Couldn’t i just open an online account and buy all S&P index fund, call it a day, and ultimately end up ahead of where I am?
Thanks Paddock stock people!
I have two financial advisors both with different big brokerages for my many Paddock Monies.
One place I have I midlevel risk portfolio regular account that I contribute to monthly that is a combination of extra personal and business money, wanted it to be somewhat fluid and do move money in and out based on need a few times a year. Decent returns but again didn’t want this one to be balls to the wall.
Other house has all retirement and college accounts, combination of Roth/Simple IRA/Ed IRAs/529s. This is where I’m agitated. I told my guy a while back, like 10 years ago, to go balls out on everything. High risk, long term. Anyways it’s a Morgan Stanley TRAK fund (collection of mutual funds) that was always pretty heavy on emerging markets. Was told emerging markets don’t always follow US which is where they were more aggressive. Bottom line is it’s underperformed the S&P the last few years (have been times it outperformed).
For someone who is not ever going to actively manage my portfolio, is this ok? What should I be doing differently? Couldn’t i just open an online account and buy all S&P index fund, call it a day, and ultimately end up ahead of where I am?
Thanks Paddock stock people!
Above my pay grade, think there’s an actual broker or two on the board, but if I were you, I would be very angry at your MS broker. I do my own investing, my brother uses Edward Jones and they at least hold yearly meetings with him. Yes, I would rather do what W Buffet told some people once, just invest in the S&P index. An index etf where I’ve parked some money in S&P is a Vanguard fund, VOOG. Hopefully, Morgan Stanley won’t charge you fees to move those various accounts (big difference between an IRA and regular Roth and your others, too). BTW, most gurus mention only about 10% of one’s money in emerging markets, currently I hold 0% in them.
I own a vacant lot in a good location. I've been looking at building a "high end" duplex on it and possibly downsize and move into one of them and lease the other. I have enough equity in my home that should pay for more than half the cost of construction. I've never owned rental property before, but I too, very good with repairs etc.
I’ve always liked the idea of duplexes, my wife and I rented one side our first year of marriage in 1982...I’m terrible with repairs, however.
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(long)
Here you go, figured may as well look up what I actually have
:Well Fargo (account I want to be fluid and more conservative):
- 62% US Large Cap Equities
- 20% U.S. Taxable Investment Grade Fixed Income
- 12% Global Hedge Funds
8.77% 1Y Return
Morgan Stanley (several accounts, all either retirement or college....want to be aggressive)
Simple IRA (established from my company I own to do matching etc)
- 100% JP Morgan mutual fund JSACX....50% US Equity, 30% non US equity
8.25% 1Y Return
Trad IRA (wife's rolled over):
- US large cap value 20%
- US large cap growth 10%
- International equities 36%
- Emerging markets 10%
6.28% 1Y Return
Roth IRA/Educational IRAs TRAK Funds:
- US large cap growth 20%
- US large cap val 10%
- Thornburg Intl value TGVIX 16%
- William Blair Intl growth BIGIV 16%
- JP Morg Emerging Markets JEMSX 5%
- Lazard Emerging Markets LZEMX 5%
6% 1Y Return
Kinda glad I spent a few min looking this up, interesting to hear anyone's thoughts. I guess the most EM exposure is 10%, less than I thought. Just shocked me that all I have was so far below S&P this year....but then again for long term investors it's hard to have predicted things like market shooting up after '16 (no politics please) when everyone predicted disaster, correct? I assume these kinds of international and EM is to help insulate from US markets and do better when US is down?
Again, I'm out of my lane a bit here so any thoughts welcome.....I just kinda wonder after just looking up 10000 different things I own and pay a commission of some kind.....is it really any better than just saying eff it and going all S&P index funds?
You are very heavily exposed to international investments, but your age and number of work years should go into your decisions. I’m deeply retired, but remember back in the late 1980s and 1990s how many analysts told us how crucial it was to be in foreign, but frankly they really didn’t hedge me during downturns so I finally stayed US like Buffet prefers. Some others here can give you better allocation advice, but I see too much large cap US exposure, small cap etfs are good to mix into a portfolio, possibly a mid cap, and much, much less international plays. VOOG a good S&P play and keep in mind that 50% of that index is technology now, probably good in your case to have more of that and less international garbage.
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I have a safety net savings account that I’ve kept between 10-12K in for years. It paid approximately $20 interest a year. Three weeks ago I took 10K out and bought Apple shares at just under $189. I’ve made more off that trade in three weeks than the many years sitting in a savings account. Wish I had done that ten years ago.
Well done, I love investing in individual stocks and etfs! Many investors get burnt by one try at a stock purchase that drops in value and never try again, whether it be ego or competitive nature, they hate to lose, you cannot think that way with investing, accept some losses and move on to something else. Otherwise, Buffet is right, just go S&P and forget about it.
I got a chance to help a newly public trading stock get into the KY/IN market.
What should I consider before helping them. It’s a 1099 deal but their stock is affordable so I’m considering buying in too, before pushing the product.
What should I consider before helping them. It’s a 1099 deal but their stock is affordable so I’m considering buying in too, before pushing the product.
Thanks for the thoughtful response. Will look into that. I'm 38 and ideally would work another 20 years or so before selling my companies outright or transition my kids into it. At that point would probably do something completely different for work/fun/volunteer at that point.
Edit: If my international stuff was a hedge on my manager's part, would it be dumb to be reactionary at this point ie don't try to chase the S&P upturn that has already happened? Ride out through the next downturn then go (diversified) US heavy?
I can understand why you don’t have time for investing, and at 38 you have a long time to go with your monies. BTW, if I were you, don’t worry much about timing the market, most foreign countries are hard to figure, Japan doing good now, but no guarantee with any of them; yes, the US bull is long in the tooth, but you certainly could start putting some of the money into the US like Buffet says, particularly at 38 years young.
Wells Fargo return seems to meet that goal you have ok, not much to change except possibly 10% to small cap. You might do well to avoid whoever originally was assigned to handle your money, get M/S’s best investment advisor to re-allocate the investments in your funds. The original guy may have taken you literally that you didn’t want to be bothered and just has lamely neglected to re-balance your investments. If you prefer another broker/advisor, carry your statements of what’s invested with M/S and they will get aggressive for you about rolling over the accounts and assigning you a good advisor. The third option is what you said, contact a discount broker like Schwab, Ameritrade, Etrade, etc, and again follow the steps above. Once you get the accounts set up, stay simple with US etfs for the S&P, maybe a small cap, and do it yourself.
Both the WF and MS guys are friends, probably not the best decision in hindsight. MS guy is a friend since HS and college, have used him since I graduated. Reputable guy and to his defense he hounds me to review frequently, I just get busy and neglected to do so. I really fault myself for not tracking more.
I had these feelings a year ago and pulled a nice chunk out to invest with my WF buddy and he did better with a (in his terms) more conservative portfolio in the first/one year compared.
All that said, my worldview has changed dramatically about dealing with friends from “absolutely never” to “anytime I can” after a life changing event I experienced....life is short IMO....have tossed friends a lot of business since and vice versa. Would have no problem breaking someone off if wronged however.
I had these feelings a year ago and pulled a nice chunk out to invest with my WF buddy and he did better with a (in his terms) more conservative portfolio in the first/one year compared.
All that said, my worldview has changed dramatically about dealing with friends from “absolutely never” to “anytime I can” after a life changing event I experienced....life is short IMO....have tossed friends a lot of business since and vice versa. Would have no problem breaking someone off if wronged however.
Right, have a serious sitdown with your MS friend, if not satisfied, go to the other options, it’s your entire family involved with every % of return to your portfolio, use due care at least 1/2 day a year. I used a popular local broker, but like many brokers, his time is involved with sales, not scanning portfolios...at least have the company’s yearly updated best allocation.
Rex, one more thing, in any city that has full service brokers usually there is one broker allowed to do the stock picking in a brokerage for “big hitters,” rather than some computer allocation sent from the national office. I don’t know where you fall, doubt I qualified, so I never pursued it, same for one local banker with that reputation. You have to ask around, doctors and lawyers usually would know.
I've been looking at that one because I was also following STZ which now owns 38% of CGC. It popped last week when Constellation upped their investment by $5 billion. Now STZ is beginning to look cheaper with the hit they took afterwards. They already had terrific beer, wine and spirits businesses. A real growth company in the space.
I would break down the fees/returns in every one of these investments and decide if you're getting your money's worth. Sounds like you don't believe that is happening despite over a 8% return this year.
One way to compare would be to check the low fee or low cost alternative for each fund you currently own in say a Vanguard, Schwab, T Rowe Price or Fidelity fund to see if the numbers might have come out better if your money was in those places instead.
About the international exposure, the investment pain has been felt with the president's tariff policies. One way of approaching the losses could be is it too late to sell? The risk/reward actually might be in your favor NOW or at least better than 6 months ago but not if those fund fees are eating you alive.
One area to focus on could be marketing or 12b-1 fees. Another is whether your funds are loaded or no-load funds. If a load was deferred, you could be paying the commission when you sell if you've held it for a short time. I'm not exactly sure about the friendship equation if your friend sold you a loaded fund that earns him a commission and yearly 12b-1 marketing fees.
This is a question above my pay grade but I would only buy in as a speculator. What exchange will it be traded on?
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It beat estimates on EPS and 2nd quarter revenues grew 14% year over year. Most revenues are coming from Europe. Payment processing has been a great business to invest in also.
MasterCard has been my best performing position over the last few years. About 2.5x my money.
Same here for Visa. Both excellent names.
Morningstar: "Investors would greatly improve their odds of success by favoring low-cost funds, which succeeded far more often than high-cost funds over the long term."
I’m an NVDA guy in the semi space, bought my wife a solid CSCO competitor recently, ANET, and luckily it’s up $25 a sh today after being added to the S&P.
Ughhh, really wish I grabbed some shares back when it was $10. Granted, they're growing more because of datacenter needs, and not so much on the GPU side.. but I knew they couldn't be that far off of Intel and certainly not Nvidia.
