Reds

[kywildcatsfannumber1]

Senzel was a Top 5 pick, #2 overall in '16. Those guys are typically ML All-Stars who can be expected to hit 20+ HRs, 30+ doubles, have 80+ RBIs, and hit .280-.300. Senzel has never been anything like that, never will. Reds continue to get that kind of "production" out of top draft picks and they'll never be anything more than we're seeing. But you're right...enjoy it while we can because it won't last long.

Why do you think all of sudden he should become a power hitter? Senzel never hit more than 8 home runs at Tennessee. Never more than 14 at any point in the Reds system for a single season. To expect him to be a 25-30 HR guy is unrealistic when he was not drafted on the potential to do so. Give me a notch below a Daniel Murphy/DJ LeMahieu or even a Kyle Farmer. Heaven forbid a guy become a late bloomer. I criticize when its warranted and give credit when its due. He's playing the best he has of any stretch since his MLB Debut and will acknowledge that. There's nothing that can be done about selecting him 2nd overall now, it is what it is. Again, see it how you want to and I'll do the same!!

 

[mrschwump]

Why do you think he is all of sudden should become a power hitter? Senzel never hit more than 8 home runs at Tennessee. Never more than 14 at any point in the Reds system for a single season. To expect him to be a 25-30 HR guy is unrealistic when he was not drafted on the potential to do so. Give me a notch below a Daniel Murphy/DJ LeMahieu or even a Kyle Farmer. Heaven forbid a guy become a late bloomer. I criticize when its warranted and give credit when its due. He's playing the best he has of any stretch since his MLB Debut and will acknowledge that. There's nothing that can be done about selecting him 2nd overall now, it is what it is. Again, see it how you want to and I'll do the same!!

I never said he should become a power hitter, that's the problem with this player. The Reds waisted a high draft pick on a guy incapable of putting up decent numbers, granted that's on the Reds FO and those responsible for evaluating and developing within the amateur draft system more so than Senzel. Now we're to the point where maybe they can swap him for a younger player with more potential which is hard to do.

This fiasco didn't start or end with Senzel. Look at my comments above. I took a run thru the Reds minor system and it's really, really depressing at the numbers their high draft picks of recent years are putting up. After De La Cruz there's just not a lot of help on the horizon.

 

[kywildcatsfannumber1]

I never said he should become a power hitter, that's the problem with this player. The Reds waisted a high draft pick on a guy incapable of putting up decent numbers, granted that's on the Reds FO and those responsible for evaluating and developing within the amateur draft system more so than Senzel. Now we're to the point where maybe they can swap him for a younger player with more potential which is hard to do.

This fiasco didn't start or end with Senzel. Look at my comments above. I took a run thru the Reds minor system and it's really, really depressing at the numbers their high draft picks of recent years are putting up. After De La Cruz there's just not a lot of help on the horizon.

The best that can happen for the Reds with Senzel is for him to become a solid contributor at this point much like Farmer has become at this stage in his career which doesn't hurt the team. I don't expect much more and hope for nothing less going forward. No one believes Nick will suddenly become an All-Star in his career.

The overall recent work the Reds scouts/FO have done in the draft is underwhelming. I'm not sure anyone can fault the Reds though for drafting Senzel when he was a consensus 1st Round pick and led the SEC in doubles in 2016. He would not have stayed on the board much longer if the Reds passed and it's easy to look back now to say he wasn't 1st round material since he hasn't lived up to the hype. The development the Reds prospects are receiving in MILB needs to be seriously evaluated if the likes of McLain aren't busting down doors to get to MLB by now.

 

[trueblujr2]

If that is the reasoning behind Castillo over Drury as the Reds All-Star representative that is sad.

Agreed

 

[trueblujr2]

The best that can happen for the Reds with Senzel is for him to become a solid contributor at this point much like Farmer has become at this stage in his career which doesn't hurt the team. I don't expect much more and hope for nothing less going forward. No one believes Nick will suddenly become an All-Star in his career.

The overall recent work the Reds scouts/FO have done in the draft is underwhelming. I'm not sure anyone can fault the Reds though for drafting Senzel when he was a consensus 1st Round pick and led the SEC in doubles in 2016. He would not have stayed on the board much longer if the Reds passed and it's easy to look back now to say he wasn't 1st round material since he hasn't lived up to the hype. The development the Reds prospects are receiving in MILB needs to be seriously evaluated if the likes of McLain aren't busting down doors to get to MLB by now.

So at what point do they purposely start tanking to ensure getting the number one pick next year?

 

[kywildcatsfannumber1]

So at what point do they purposely start tanking to ensure getting the number one pick next year?

Seen where the deadline is August 2nd instead of the usual July 31st, the trade market heating up quickly after that the All-Star Break since it's pushed back this year too. The Reds should be very active with a lot of veteran pieces to old for a rebuild. A team might get desperate just like the Yankees here tonight with Severino going down. Not sure how serious his injury will be but they already had interest in Castillo. Saw a report today that the Giants & Dodgers are 2 of the teams interested in Drury. IMO, I'd wait for the best offer with a team desperate for an ace like Castillo. Never know what happens and who might get hurt between now and the 2nd.

 

[trueblujr2]

Minor getting rocked after India bumbles a double play ball. 41 pitches this inning and counting.

 

[kybloo92]

Justin Dunn can't come up soon enough. Seen enough of Mike Minor. Even if you trade Mahle/Castillo I'll take the rotation of Lodolo, Greene, Ashcraft, Dunn & Overton before washed up Mike Minor starts the rest of the season. Would rather give Hoffman, Sanmartin or another AAA arm a spot start when it comes to resting the rookies over the expensive, ineffective Mike Minor.

 

[trueblujr2]

Sad thing is if India doesn’t let that double play ball get through, he’s pitching a gem, but it seems they would have gotten to him anyway second time through the lineup.

 

[mrschwump]

Justin Dunn can't come up soon enough. Seen enough of Mike Minor. Even if you trade Mahle/Castillo I'll take the rotation of Lodolo, Greene, Ashcraft, Dunn & Overton before washed up Mike Minor starts the rest of the season. Would rather give Hoffman, Sanmartin or another AAA arm a spot start when it comes to resting the rookies over the expensive, ineffective Mike Minor.

Didn't Dunn get knocked around in his latest start, gave up something like 5 runs in 3 or 4 IP or some such? Sanmartin seems to have found his niche in the BP as a lefty set up guy. He's pitched pretty well since his return. Don't think he goes back to SP.

Really disheartening to see the young guys the Reds will be depending the next few years, Hinds, McClain, Barrero, Hendrick, etc all hitting in the mid to low .200s. Only De La Cruz looks like a keeper to this point. Now many of the same people who were responsible for selecting and developing those guys are preparing to add a bunch of younger guys via trade when they continue dismantling the team. Reds seem to have a good nucleus of pitching to build around but future position players are a huge question.

 

[kybloo92]

Didn't Dunn get knocked around in his latest start, gave up something like 5 runs in 3 or 4 IP or some such? Sanmartin seems to have found his niche in the BP as a lefty set up guy. He's pitched pretty well since his return. Don't think he goes back to SP.

Really disheartening to see the young guys the Reds will be depending the next few years, Hinds, McClain, Barrero, Hendrick, etc all hitting in the mid to low .200s. Only De La Cruz looks like a keeper to this point. Now many of the same people who were responsible for selecting and developing those guys are preparing to add a bunch of younger guys via trade when they continue dismantling the team. Reds seem to have a good nucleus of pitching to build around but future position players are a huge question.

It was rehab assignment of 4 earned runs for a guy who is behind and hasn't pitched all season until late June. Let him get to Cincinnati first before ruling him out. If you read my post, all I said Sanmartin would be useful for a spot start when the Reds have been mathematically eliminated to rest our young guys in the rotation. A role he flourished in last September and won't hurt the Reds to eat some innings when the games won't matter. In no way was I suggesting making him a starter full-time. If not Sanmartin for a spot start, if you have a better suggestion on who the Reds would realistically put out there in late August/September I'd like to know.

 

[mrschwump]

It was rehab assignment of 4 earned runs for a guy who is behind and hasn't pitched all season until late June. Let him get to Cincinnati first before ruling him out. If you read my post, all I said Sanmartin would be useful for a spot start when the Reds have been mathematically eliminated to rest our young guys in the rotation. A role he flourished in last September and won't hurt the Reds to eat some innings when the games won't matter. In no way was I suggesting making him a starter full-time. If not Sanmartin for a spot start, if you have a better suggestion on who the Reds would realistically put out there in late August/September I'd like to know.

Jeeesh man, back off...we're on the same side! Re Dunn, I just asked didn't he have a rough start? Yes, he did. I'm not ruling him out by any stretch. Sanmartin could very well get spot starts but I wouldn't be surprised if they kept him in the pen. Second half is going to be very different looking. Castillo/Mahle will be gone, likely 4-5 others also. In those trades the Reds should be able to get some young arms to showcase, that's who we'll see plus the current younger guys already on staff(there's some talk that Greene will be shut down at some point before season's end because of his IP being high). BTW, I don't have a lot of time left, I'd like to see the Reds get a solid winner.

 

[kybloo92]

Jeeesh man, back off...we're on the same side! Re Dunn, I just asked didn't he have a rough start? Yes, he did. I'm not ruling him out by any stretch. Sanmartin could very well get spot starts but I wouldn't be surprised if they kept him in the pen. Second half is going to be very different looking. Castillo/Mahle will be gone, likely 4-5 others also. In those trades the Reds should be able to get some young arms to showcase, that's who we'll see plus the current younger guys already on staff(there's some talk that Greene will be shut down at some point before season's end because of his IP being high). BTW, I don't have a lot of time left, I'd like to see the Reds get a solid winner.

Looking at the situation and using Reds logic with only 28 roster spots for September call-ups, IMO Cincinnati will have to go to in-house options. Hoffman had his chance last week and pulled after 1 inning. Sanmartin's future is in long relief in the bullpen and is expendable. Not sure Revier going forward makes or breaks this team which is how I see the Reds view him when he made his debut in the 2 starts vs the Pirates last year over more deserving prospects.

While it would be nice to see Williamson called-up, considering Reds track record of bringing along prospects it would shock me this season. He's already 24 though and his 2nd start in Louisville was great. You may be right that the Reds get an arm or two that could make it to MLB this season or soon after. However, with the putrid hitting prospects past Elly De La Cruz, it's going to be disappointing if the Reds do not replenish the farm system with hitters to build around for the future where this team is sorely lacking. Would rather roll the dice with Lodolo, Greene, Ashcraft and in some order Dunn, Williamson, a veteran pitcher until Petty comes along or Abbott if he gets it together. Build up the pitching depth through the draft which the organization seems to have done better with developing pitchers.

 

[mrschwump]

Looking at the situation and using Reds logic with only 28 roster spots for September call-ups, IMO Cincinnati will have to go to in-house options. Hoffman had his chance last week and pulled after 1 inning. Sanmartin's future is in long relief in the bullpen and is expendable. Not sure Revier going forward makes or breaks this team which is how I see the Reds view him when he made his debut in the 2 starts vs the Pirates last year over more deserving prospects.

While it would be nice to see Williamson called-up, considering Reds track record of bringing along prospects it would shock me this season. He's already 24 though and his 2nd start in Louisville was great. You may be right that the Reds get an arm or two that could make it to MLB this season or soon after. However, with the putrid hitting prospects past Elly De La Cruz, it's going to be disappointing if the Reds do not replenish the farm system with hitters to build around for the future where this team is sorely lacking. Would rather roll the dice with Lodolo, Greene, Ashcraft and in some order Dunn, Williamson, a veteran pitcher until Petty comes along or Abbott if he gets it together. Build up the pitching depth through the draft which the organization seems to have done better with developing pitchers.

redreporter.com has a pre-draft run down that came out a little while ago. According to them, early draft picks next week are likely to include only one college pitcher. Somewhat surprising, have a feeling the Reds amateur scouting dept will screw this up.

I like the pitchers you highlighted and agree they need to see what these guys have to offer. I'd throw in Christian Roa to that mix too.

 

[kybloo92]

redreporter.com has a pre-draft run down that came out a little while ago. According to them, early draft picks next week are likely to include only one college pitcher. Somewhat surprising, have a feeling the Reds amateur scouting dept will screw this up.

I like the pitchers you highlighted and agree they need to see what these guys have to offer. I'd throw in Christian Roa to that mix too.

The Wick Terrell article really is alarming as it leads me to believe the Reds have no direction going into the draft Sunday but the various mock drafts are linking multiple SS prospects with the logjam in system at SS. Fortunately Barrero/De La Cruz both have experience at other positions.

I tend to accidentally forget Christian Roa when at 23 he may be closer to contributing at the MLB level than many pitching prospects in the pipeline. Hopefully he's in Chattanooga before too long.

 

[kybloo92]

Bleacher Report has the Dodgers & Orioles rated as the 1st & 3rd best overall farm systems. The Orioles are showing interest in Luis Castillo with their recent surge and if I had to choose where he goes, these 2 teams would be at the top of the list. LA has some big time sluggers like Andy Pages, Miguel Vargas & Michael Busch. #1 prospect catcher Diego Cartaya & #2 pitcher Bobby Miller. 4 of Baltimore's Top 5 prospects are on pace to reach MLB by later in 2022 or next season.

 

[kywildcatsfannumber1]

This entire bullpen can go except Alexis Diaz. We'll start over next year with a healthy Antone, Sims & Santillan.

 

[mrschwump]

Moreta gets his first MLB save...and Senzel throws the game ball into the CF bleachers. SMH.

 

[mrschwump]

Get your popcorn ready, next chapter of an incompetent FO taking shape in a matter of days.

 

[trueblujr2]

Get your popcorn ready, next chapter of an incompetent FO taking shape in a matter of days.

Any guesses on what they SHOULD get for Castillo vs. what they will actually get?

 

[mrschwump]

Any guesses on what they SHOULD get for Castillo vs. what they will actually get?

I would think or hope they would get the other team's top pitcher or hitting prospect. Maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part. None of this crap of giving up a pitcher of Castillo's quality for some part time starter out of Lower A.

 

[trueblujr2]

I would think or hope they would get the other team's top pitcher or hitting prospect. Maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part. None of this crap of giving up a pitcher of Castillo's quality for some part time starter out of Lower A.

They need to at least get two Major league ready Pitchers, one a starter and another for the bullpen. Hopefully they can get another prospect who will have the immediate impact Castillo did when he was traded for.

 

[mrschwump]

They need to at least get two Major league ready Pitchers, one a starter and another for the bullpen. Hopefully they can get another prospect who will have the immediate impact Castillo did when he was traded for.

I hold out very little hope that this FO can swing a major deal or deals. If you want to get further bummed check the numbers of the young guys, minus De La Cruz, the Reds have drafted and are crawling thru the minor league system. I'm talking about guys like Barrero, McClain, Hendrick, Allen, etc..... Absolutely brutal.

 

[mrschwump]

Earth to Reds FO: TS is the future of the Reds, move him to 1B when he finally heals.

 

[Tskware]

Haven't posted in a while, but thought I would add that Winker, Suarez and Castellanos are all batting below .250, so even though the Reds got off to a horrible start, looks like those three guys would not have helped them all that much even if they had been retained.

 

[mrschwump]

Bad sign...week after the draft and the Reds have only signed three draft picks, none of the top picks.

 

[Derek Terry]

Bad sign...week after the draft and the Reds have only signed three draft picks, none of the top picks.

 

[mrschwump]

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Thanks, much better news but still need to sign those top guys.

 

[trueblujr2]

Earth to Reds FO: TS is the future of the Reds, move him to 1B when he finally heals.

That was just brutal to see that happen to him. That’s something that could affect his throwing long term. And he throws just as many balls as all the pitchers combined during the game. He definitely needs to move to 1B now. Only issue is there just aren’t many right handed 1B.

 

[trueblujr2]

Haven't posted in a while, but thought I would add that Winker, Suarez and Castellanos are all batting below .250, so even though the Reds got off to a horrible start, looks like those three guys would not have helped them all that much even if they had been retained.

We’ll the thing that would have helped some is the fact they’ve all been mostly healthy all year. Having all of them healthy would have helped us keep a more consistent lineup.

 

[kybloo92]

Haven't posted in a while, but thought I would add that Winker, Suarez and Castellanos are all batting below .250, so even though the Reds got off to a horrible start, looks like those three guys would not have helped them all that much even if they had been retained.

Not sure I buy into that theory so much considering it takes some guys longer to transition from a trade, especially after playing in Cincinnati being the offensive friendly park that it is. Suarez hitting .052 higher on his batting average from last season which is more than what he gave the Reds the last 2 seasons and the power is still there. Seattle is one of the hottest teams going right now with them in the lineup. I'm sure Castellanos will come around and we'll see how Winker does long term outside of GABP.

 

[kybloo92]

They need to at least get two Major league ready Pitchers, one a starter and another for the bullpen. Hopefully they can get another prospect who will have the immediate impact Castillo did when he was traded for.

I like the Reds pitching depth and need sluggers that can impact this team at the MLB level soon. Hoping offense will be the prime focus at the deadline. I'm content with the Reds depth at pitcher with Lodolo, Greene, Ashcraft and Dunn/Williamson in AAA. Chase Petty looks good so far but still a ways off. The jury is still out on Overton who should be back soon. If he's close to what he was prior to getting injured, that's a solid 5th option for sure.

For Castillo, it would be great to receive a top 3 prospect from a team though I am not holding my breath with our FO to capitalize. It's possible if a team gets desperate enough but wouldn't expect much in the return beyond that if they land a Top 3 which is fine as I prefer quality over quantity. A couple of Top 10 prospects in a team's pipeline packaged in a return would be a decent haul IMO.

 

[kywildcatsfannumber1]

 

[mrschwump]

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Glad to see it, now let's not bury him in the minors for 7 years.

 

[kywildcatsfannumber1]

India coming around, playing through pain and I love to see it. It's huge considering the lack of threats in the lineup outside of Drury, a far cry from last season. Hitting much better since the Tampa Bay series.

 

[trueblujr2]

Glad to see it, now let's not bury him in the minors for 7 years.

Scouts say he should be on a pretty fast track and think he could be ready in 3 years or less, so translating that to Reds management means at least 5. Would love to see him crack the bigs before he turns 21. Griffey Jr. came in at 19, it's not out of the realm of possibility. They talk like the Reds got a steal with him sticking around to the 18th pick, some thought he was top 5 worthy.

 

[mrschwump]

Scouts say he should be on a pretty fast track and think he could be ready in 3 years or less, so translating that to Reds management means at least 5. Would love to see him crack the bigs before he turns 21. Griffey Jr. came in at 19, it's not out of the realm of possibility. They talk like the Reds got a steal with him sticking around to the 18th pick, some thought he was top 5 worthy.

Reds unlikely to threaten again until '24 or '25. If you're building for the future then by god do it!

 

[kybloo92]

Scouts say he should be on a pretty fast track and think he could be ready in 3 years or less, so translating that to Reds management means at least 5. Would love to see him crack the bigs before he turns 21. Griffey Jr. came in at 19, it's not out of the realm of possibility. They talk like the Reds got a steal with him sticking around to the 18th pick, some thought he was top 5 worthy.

Doubtful Griffey debuts at 19 if he weren't a Mariner first...

 

[trueblujr2]

Reds unlikely to threaten again until '24 or '25. If you're building for the future then by god do it!

By 2025 I'd like to see an infield lineup of TS at 1B, India at 2B De La Cruz at SS and Collier at 3B. Stephenson at 1B is probably a pipe dream. they will destroy him as a catcher. His bat needs to be in the lineup every day and his legs not destroyed so he can actually run the bases as well.

 

[kybloo92]

By 2025 I'd like to see an infield lineup of TS at 1B, India at 2B De La Cruz at SS and Collier at 3B. Stephenson at 1B is probably a pipe dream. they will destroy him as a catcher. His bat needs to be in the lineup every day and his legs not destroyed so he can actually run the bases as well.

Matt McLain is closer to the MLB level than any top IF prospect. Where does he fit into the equation? Sure he is struggling right now but only De La Cruz is having a productive season in the Reds system. The bigger story is the lack of development the Reds top prospects are showing through the pipeline. It's alarming how many aren't rising through the ranks any quicker and it seems to be a consistent theme with many of the Reds 'can't miss' prospects.

The lack of offensive threats is why the Reds should focus on hitters with the trade chips in Castillo, Mahle, Drury, etc. Lost Castellanos in free agency, traded away Winker/Suarez for pitching depth. Cincinnati needs to seriously consider pieces to build around offensively that other organizations already developed. I know everyone believes Castillo should be replaced with another ace but for once let the Reds young pitchers grow and get some offensive help instead losing games without any run support.

As far as Stephenson long term at 1B, it needs to happen with his injury history. Find another serviceable veteran catcher like Ramon Hernandez in the meantime that can bridge the gap until Nelson, Miller or Vellojin arrive.