POLL: The Ultimate Question, it seems to me ??

[aceman509]

If you really wanted to get into the analytics of it, a better measure would be 3 point attempts per possession, not 3 point attempts per game. One reason why we might be able to get up to the 35 attempt mark is because we will be playing a very high tempo offense.

The easiest way to look at this historically is to see what percentage of attempts were taken from 3 vs 2. Here are the champs since 2010:

2010- Duke: 33.0%
2011- UConn: 29.3%
2012- Kentucky: 26.5%
2013- Louisville: 30.0%
2014- UConn: 34.3%
2015- Duke: 33.4%
2016- Villanova: 42.8%
2017- UNC: 30.3%
2018- Villanova: 47.6%
2019- Virginia: 39.5%
2021- Baylor: 38.4%
2022- Kansas: 33.1%
2023- UConn: 41.7%
2024- UConn: 40.2%

It really took a big leap in 2016 which coincides with the leap the NBA took with the Warriors and subsequently the Rockets.

If you look at the average 3 point attempt rate from the final 4 teams since then, it shows the following:

2010: 33.5%
2011: 35.4%
2012: 28.8%
2013: 32.5%
2014: 33.9%
2015: 33.2%
2016: 38.1%
2017: 33.9%
2018: 41.8%
2019: 40.8%
2021: 36.4%
2022: 38.3%
2023: 38.4%
2024: 38.7%

 

[Cats192]

People keep saying "No, you have to play good defense."

There's nothing about shooting a bunch of 3's that says you have to be terrible on defense. I certainly don't think Pope took the Kentucky job thinking he could neglect defense and shoot a bunch of 3's and win every game.

 

[docholiday51]

They did but the question remains the same. Does Kentucky have any player close to what sears is?

Considering the number of shooters we have, yes we probably do. Do we have a player who can get to the basket and score

 

[megablue]

If you really wanted to get into the analytics of it, a better measure would be 3 point attempts per possession, not 3 point attempts per game. One reason why we might be able to get up to the 35 attempt mark is because we will be playing a very high tempo offense.

The easiest way to look at this historically is to see what percentage of attempts were taken from 3 vs 2. Here are the champs since 2010:

2010- Duke: 33.0%
2011- UConn: 29.3%
2012- Kentucky: 26.5%
2013- Louisville: 30.0%
2014- UConn: 34.3%
2015- Duke: 33.4%
2016- Villanova: 42.8%
2017- UNC: 30.3%
2018- Villanova: 47.6%
2019- Virginia: 39.5%
2021- Baylor: 38.4%
2022- Kansas: 33.1%
2023- UConn: 41.7%
2024- UConn: 40.2%

It really took a big leap in 2016 which coincides with the leap the NBA took with the Warriors and subsequently the Rockets.

If you look at the average 3 point attempt rate from the final 4 teams since then, it shows the following:

2010: 33.5%
2011: 35.4%
2012: 28.8%
2013: 32.5%
2014: 33.9%
2015: 33.2%
2016: 38.1%
2017: 33.9%
2018: 41.8%
2019: 40.8%
2021: 36.4%
2022: 38.3%
2023: 38.4%
2024: 38.7%

Great research and metrics !!
Are these solely for NCAA tournament games or for the entire season ??

 

[UKWildcats1987]

It's interesting 70% say yes.

The thing is it's never happened and probably never will.

I think all the talk of shooting 35 plus a game from 3 is hyperbole anyways.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

Do you guys remember how good Heshimu Evans and Allen Edwards were on that '98 team? It feels like we have 8 or 9 guys in that caliber of player. No Ron Mercers, but a bunch of excellent players who would have been rotation pieces on some of our best teams.

Cohesion is the only real question at this point.

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

Considering the number of shooters we have, yes we probably do. Do we have a player who can get to the basket and score

Sears is significantly better than anybody we have on our roster. I still like Kentuckys team, but I agree with you, who is the player on this team who beats their defender

 

[bucsrule8872]

Interesting thought, our best defensive lineup is probably our worst shooting lineup.

G Butler- maybe the best backcourt defender in the country.
G Oweh- our best wing defender.
G Robinson- good defender
F Carr- underrated defender.
F Williams- one of the best frontcourt defenders in the country.

Some good, but not great shooters in that lineup. All hovering in the 30’s percentage wise.

Meanwhile, the best shooting lineup is probably:

G Kriisa- streaky, but good.
G Perry- unproven but maybe the best on the squad.
G Brea- best % in nation last year.
F Almonor- one of the best shooters at the 4 spot in the country.
F Garrison- a good defender, just not as good as Williams on paper.

How does Pope mix and match? That will be interesting to watch.

 

[megablue]

It's interesting 70% say yes.

The thing is it's never happened and probably never will.

I think all the talk of shooting 35 plus a game from 3 is hyperbole anyways.

I tend to agree ... 35 is lot of threes.

 

[megablue]

Interesting thought, our best defensive lineup is probably our worst shooting lineup.

G Butler- maybe the best backcourt defender in the country.
G Oweh- our best wing defender.
G Robinson- good defebder.
F Carr- underrated defender.
F Williams- one of the best frontcourt defenders in the country.

Some good, but not great shooters in that lineup. All hovering in the 30’s percentage wise.

Meanwhile, the best shooting lineup is probably:

G Kriisa- streaky, but good.
G Perry- unproven but maybe the best on the squad.
G Brea- best % in nation last year.
F Almonor- one of the best shooters at the 4 spot in the country.
F Garrison- a good defebder, just not as good as Williams on paper.

How does Pope mix and match? That will be interesting to watch.

10000% this !!! ^^^^
He has to solve the matrix !!
His rotations and in-game personnel management will REALLY make this an interesting season. This year, especially, i think the non-conference home games should provide great opportunity to spread minutes and evaluate working combinations.

 

[Tf2217]

One thing coach always taught me is 3>2 if you make them. You can't jack up a hundred threes hoping to hit some, however if you can hit a lot of those 100 we are cooking.

A lot of teams have 1-2 pretty good shooters and a few meh guys. If the defense keys and trys to make the meh guys beat them and they're shaky shooters anyways or your star has a bad day is where you get the love by the three die by the three crap.

If every position is a >40 shooter it's pretty hard to have that bad of a shooting night. It's not that hard with 1-2 good shooters (if we're being generous) that Calipari teams usually put out.

 

[Tf2217]

Meanwhile, the best shooting lineup is probably:

G Kriisa- streaky, but good.
G Perry- unproven but maybe the best on the squad.
G Brea- best % in nation last year.
F Almonor- one of the best shooters at the 4 spot in the country.
F Garrison- a good defender, just not as good as Williams on paper.

How does Pope mix and match? That will be interesting to watch.

I would probably drop BG for Carr and let him play the 5 if it was truly best lineup for offense otherwise agree.
Although butlers shot looked great at pro day I don't think he hardly even hit the rim. If he can be serviceable out there with his Defense will really be a lift, but again like Iverson said we talking about practice ... Not a game, practice.

 

[aceman509]

Great research and metrics !!
Are these solely for NCAA tournament games or for the entire season ??

Sorry for the late reply here, but these are for the entire season. Found them using barttorvik which is a really good free resource for analytics nerds (which I am).

Definitely would be an interesting exercise to calculate it for just the 6 game tournament run of the champs, or the run of final four teams, but I think I'd need to do some manual data collection by hand for that. Might get around to it this week if you'd be interested in the results

 

[Soupbean]

I think our offense will take care of itself as we have too many veterans, good shooters and great style of play that spreads the floor, and that will win us more games that experts think once we get greased up and playing like its designed.

My concern is whether or not we can handle the hand full of teams that are going to get into us physically and try to bully us out on the floor and around the basket. Can we break folks down when they extend the defense to take us out of our offense and can we get the ball off the glass when they try to back us down and crash the boards on us.

This is especially tough in tournament play as its become a hand to hand combat style recently. Im very confident in our skill level and experience and abiliy to score out of our set offense. But what happens when they take us out of that and make us fight. I know we'll fight back and Coach will make sure of that, but are we built that way to handle it.

 

[ukcatz12]

True, but there are going to be around 5 games a year when a good shooting team isn't shooting that well. Someone earlier mentioned the 17/18 Nova team. They had four regular season losses. In 3 of them, they shot under 30% from three and lost. It's hard to string six games in a row. I looked up the Texas Tech game were they were miserable in the tourney (yet won). They shot 33% from the field and 16% from 3, yet won by 12. How the f does that happen? Don't remember the game but they must have played great d and they hit 29 of 35 free throws. Point is, it is difficult for a team to win 6 in a row in the tourney if you rely on the 3 a ton, but it can be done

Nova had the 11th ranked defense that year. So yeah, it's their defense that saved them when they went cold.

 

[Cats192]

I'm also a big believer that when you're in the fire, you sink to the level of your training. It's easy to play loose during a regular season game when you've got 31.

I don't feel like our players the last 4 or 5 years had the best training. When stuff hit the fan, no one seemed to know what to do.

I think that'll be better this year. Pope wasn't in my top 10 replacement coaches, but I do think he's better at X's, O's, and offense than Calipari.

And while Pope hasn't won in the tournament to date, this is probably the most talented team he's had.

 

[ukfan1622]

I'm also a big believer that when you're in the fire, you sink to the level of your training. It's easy to play loose during a regular season game when you've got 31.

I don't feel like our players the last 4 or 5 years had the best training. When stuff hit the fan, no one seemed to know what to do.

I think that'll be better this year. Pope wasn't in my top 10 replacement coaches, but I do think he's better at X's, O's, and offense than Calipari.

And while Pope hasn't won in the tournament to date, this is probably the most talented team he's had.

Definitely the most talented team he's had.