Tom Rogan
on point, per usual:
...
What
would change is the measure of cooperation between the U.K. and U.S. over the challenges posed by China and Russia. The United States is
already angered by Prime Minister David Cameron’s decision to join China’s Asia Investment and Infrastructure Bank (AIIB). Designed to support Chinese imperial dominion over the Pacific, the AIIB is anathema to democratic accountability and the rule of law.
It weakens U.S. influence in a region that is critical to global trade. And were Britain to leave the EU, it would likely look to China as a mechanism to offset lost or deferred trading relationships with the Continent.
...
One final point on U.S. foreign policy and Brexit: America’s influence over the EU going forward. For many years now,
successive U.S. governments have used their special relationship with the British government to push the EU in a pro-American direction. Whether in strengthening market access and free trade, increased counterterrorism cooperation, imposing sanctions against Russia, or in
fighting corruption, Britain affords the United States an invisible but tangible seat at the European decision table. This seat is highly valued by the U.S. government and — after security cooperation provides the U.K’s key diplomatic benefit to America.
But were Brexit to occur,
the U.K’s ability to influence France and Germany in alignment with U.S. interests would evaporate. For a specific example as to where that would pose problems, consider the E.U.’s
already weak commitment to “snap back” sanctions under the Iran nuclear deal. Influence matters greatly in international relations, and it requires physical presence and a stake in the game. Following Brexit, the U.K. would lose that stake.
....
Brexit would also bring changes to the U.S.-U.K. trading relationship. In 2015, the U.K. imported more than $56 billion in U.S. goods and exported more than $57 billion in goods to the United States. That represents a major economic partnership. Nevertheless, absent the cross-continental market access that the U.K.’s E.U. membership affords U.S. investors, Brexit might pose serious challenges to U.S.-U.K. trade. While this would affect Britain disproportionately, it would also jeopardize the revenue margins of U.S. interests already established in the U.K. At least, that is, until the economic uncertainties born of Brexit settle.
....
Nevertheless, the story wouldn’t end there. Even without the U.K., the European Union will have an annual GDP of more than $16.5 trillion.
As such, after the votes are counted Friday, the United States may well have far less impact over a major international actor. If nothing else, Brexit is a recipe for great uncertainty. We should all pay attention.