POLITICAL THREAD

[krazykats]

Why is it insane? He sucks! Everyone knows it!

Yes trump won in a landslide. Mississippi was declared at like 10% in and Mich was declared after about 45% and he was up 60K+ or he was ahead more than Rubio got in total.

 

[krazykats]

And Rubio is running last in polls in FL where he was a no show voter as a senator for 80% of his time!

 

[bigblueinsanity]

The importance of today's Michigan primary cannot be understated.

Illinois, Florida, and Ohio all vote a week from today and all are winner-take-all, meaning that momentum coming out of Michigan will be incredibly important. Illinois, though, isn't getting the attention it deserves. Not only is Trump clinging to a single-digit lead there, but also the other three candidates are neck and neck. Plus, it's an open primary, meaning that Democratic and strategic Republican voters could push one of the other three ahead enough to keep Trump away from that massive wad of delegates at stake. Couple all of that drama with the closed nature of Florida's primary (where Trump already has an essentially insurmountable lead) and the horse race that is Ohio....the Ides of March is going to be a massive watershed moment for this election.

If Trump takes OH, its over. Its practically over now.

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If Kasich has really jumped 11 pts then that shows where all of the Jeb and Carson votes have gone.
If Kasich were to make the greatest of all time comebacks...I would most likely vote for the guy. He's the only one of the bunch (Repubs & Dems) that doesn't require me to hold my nose while I vote. Otherwise I'll probably be joining the folks voting Libertarian.

It would be great if Kasich would get some traction. Hes the best candidate in the field, on either side. I just dont believe these numbers. I dont believe Cruz is performing this well. Theres literally no redeeming quality other than his evangelism, if thats your thing.

Am I wrong to think that Trump may actually get Democratic votes where as with Cruz, there is zero chance of that and Republicans will get beat in November?

Basically who is the best bet to beat Hillary?

I dont know if Trump can. But I know for sure Cruz will get killed in a general.

Rubio needs to drop before he gets embarrassed in Florida.

Rubio honestly might not make it to April, at this rate. This is insane.

Its over for him. The robotic, broke record debate performance was the end. Good riddance to a terrible candidate. The interesting question is - who gets his votes? Kasich?

 

[krazykats]

Trump and Kasich

 

[bigblueinsanity]

Trump and Kasich

Thats the best bet to win a general, based on what we know today.

 

[jamo0001]

The interesting question is - who gets his votes? Kasich?

i'd guesstimate it at:
70% Kasich
20% Cruz
9% stay home
1% Trump


The most important question, though, is where his fundraising/endorsements go. Will they acquiesce and take Trump or Cruz? Or will they keep fighting and line up behind Kasich?

 

[jamo0001]

Trump and Kasich

Kasich will not chain himself to that. Zero percent chance.

 

[Willy4UK]

I hate that smart Americans feel that they can only vote Dem or Republican. It's like trying to talk common sense to Einstein.

Which isn't really a fair comparison because Einstein actually had smarts and common sense.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

i'd guesstimate it at:
70% Kasich
20% Cruz
9% stay home
1% Trump


The most important question, though, is where his fundraising/endorsements go. Will they acquiesce and take Trump or Cruz? Or will they keep fighting and line up behind Kasich?

Id say youre right. I guess the bigger question at this point is: will Rubio even have enough voters at this point to make a difference once he drops? Doesnt look like it.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

Kasich will not chain himself to that. Zero percent chance.

I havent seen any indications either way. So I wouldnt be so sure.

I hate that smart Americans feel that they can only vote Dem or Republican. It's like trying to talk common sense to Einstein.

Which isn't really a fair comparison because Einstein actually had smarts and common sense.

I think alot of voters want an alternative. Conservative voters do, otherwise Trump would already be home. Same for Bernie supporters on the left.

The difference is, when the rubber meets the road, each side knows if they dont vote against their hated candidate, their vote will be wasted.

 

[Willy4UK]

Rubio had a lot of money invested in him. At least there was a teaching lesson.

1. Don't elect a Cuban unless it's Mark Cuban
2. Don't throw money at a guy who doesn't even show up to work
3. Don't try to make turd into a diamond. You're not turning Rocky Dennis into Brad Pitt.
4. Don't elect a guy who gets so anxious that he repeats himself robotically, can't talk smack (Trump 's penis), and gets so thirsty that he looks like a dufus learning to drink water for the first time

 

[krazykats]

1- the question was where does Rubio's vote go? Trump and Kasich but not Cruz!

2- Kasich will stay until he looks stupid and then join Trump. Look he is by far the best most experienced person out there, though I love Rand Paul, and he will guide Trump in a lot of ways and help him. People are really buying into Trump BS and he will end up your next president.

Trump said tonight that Hiliary is flawed, and that is 100% true. Christ she got smoked by Obama and she is a lot closer to Bernie than anyone thought!

Your about to see a month worth of black people who have dealt with Trump come out in support of him and crush the race debate BS.

Keep lying to yourself and believe he can't do this. It's actually working for him!

Winning Michigan easy! And Hiliary won't win that state in a general either folks once the NAFTA convo starts she will be toast regardless of the black vote!

 

[bigblueinsanity]

1- the question was where does Rubio's vote go? Trump and Kasich but not Cruz!

2- Kasich will stay until he looks stupid and then join Trump. Look he is by far the best most experienced person out there, though I love Rand Paul, and he will guide Trump in a lot of ways and help him. People are really buying into Trump BS and he will end up your next president.

Trump said tonight that Hiliary is flawed, and that is 100% true. Christ she got smoked by Obama and she is a lot closer to Bernie than anyone thought!

Your about to see a month worth of black people who have dealt with Trump come out in support of him and crush the race debate BS.

Keep lying to yourself and believe he can't do this. It's actually working for him!

Winning Michigan easy! And Hiliary won't win that state in a general either folks once the NAFTA convo starts she will be toast regardless of the black vote!

Cant believe Im saying this, but Trump looks good in Michigan, Nevada, Florida, and probably Ohio. If he holds on to all the southern states, he has a really good shot at this general election.

The polls dont tell the whole story. Theres alot of social pressure to say you hate Trump, and love Hillary. Yet when votes roll in, its obvious that doesnt play out in the polls.

 

[krazykats]

I think alot of voters want an alternative. Conservative voters do, otherwise Trump would already be home. Same for Bernie supporters on the left.
.

The bottom line is, and no one is saying this, that once Bernie is out those supporters will weigh Hiliary who they know is a liar and an idiot and Trump and start to listen to trump and began to hear some of the same thing they heard in Bernie!

What do you think will happen then?

 

[krazykats]

Cant believe Im saying this, but Trump looks good in Michigan, Nevada, Florida, and probably Ohio. If he holds on to all the southern states, he has a really good shot at this general election.

The polls dont tell the whole story. Theres alot of social pressure to say you hate Trump, and love Hillary. Yet when votes roll in, its obvious that doesnt play out in the polls.

Rack

Look if you are a left wing nut job, cool you probably can't see this coming........NO ONE saw Obama either!

The republicans will do what they do in the end and look stupid and Trump will save them and play nice like he understands and show some humility and it will all work out.

He is popular and getting better, but he still needs the best VP ever to not look like an idiot when he is president!

 

[Mojocat]

Cant believe Im saying this, but Trump looks good in Michigan, Nevada, Florida, and probably Ohio. If he holds on to all the southern states, he has a really good shot at this general election.

The polls dont tell the whole story. Theres alot of social pressure to say you hate Trump, and love Hillary. Yet when votes roll in, its obvious that doesnt play out in the polls.

Heard this in '08 too. Back then it was "well, plenty of people don't like Obama, they just don't want to say they're not voting for him because it looks racist. Wait and see, McCain will kill him!"

When we get to October and Trump is consistently behind Hillary.....when will people finally believe the polls?

 

[bigblueinsanity]

The bottom line is, and no one is saying this, that once Bernie is out those supporters will weigh Hiliary who they know is a liar and an idiot and Trump and start to listen to trump and began to hear some of the same thing they heard in Bernie!

What do you think will happen then?

I think Trump will get some of Bernies supporters, the anarchists. But most will vote party, or stay home. Trumps disfavorables are inflated, because its cool to say you hate him. Whereas Hillarys favorables are also inflated because its cool to say you like her. Its skewing the polls.

 

[krazykats]

HaHa, WTF are you talking about Mojo? Obama was white peoples chance to prove they aren't racist!

And we did, and now we are more racist than ever!

 

[bigblueinsanity]

Heard this in '08 too. Back then it was "well, plenty of people don't like Obama, they just don't want to say they're not voting for him because it looks racist. Wait and see, McCain will kill him!"

When we get to October and Trump is consistently behind Hillary.....when will people finally believe the polls?

I dont remember anyone thinking that at the time. Noone was excited about McCain/Palin. There was 8 years of Bush, which was at least 4 too many for most independent voters. Compared to a unified Democratic ticket.

Not the case now. Look Im not saying Trump will win. It will take a monumental effort for anyone to beat Hillary. Plus alot changes over the election. But RIGHT NOW, he looks to be in pretty good shape. Much better than any realistic GOP candidate.

 

[krazykats]

I agree with that.

No one wanted to vote McCain! Hell we all thought he would die and we'd be stuck with Sarah Palin, y'all!! Heehaw!!!!

Mojo has no clue, seriously.

 

[Willy4UK]

Krazy, Mojo is pretty effing smart.

People wanted MCain more than Romney. And Romney got a Obama who had already Shit on 4 yrs of presidency. McCain would've got over 200 electoral votes in 2012.

 

[jamo0001]

I havent seen any indications either way. So I wouldnt be so sure.

the people around him have made it extremely clear that he will not accept a VP offer from Trump; they're much more silent about Rubio and Cruz. Obviously Kasich himself hasn't said anything to drive home the message either way, but the evidence only points one way at this point.

 

[AlbanyWildCat]

I can't believe Hillary didn't win the working, older, white vote...

 

[krazykats]

Not questioning his intelligence. I just don't think he remembers it correctly.

 

[Willy4UK]

I can't believe Hillary didn't win the working, older, white vote...

You still arrogantly sniffing your own farts and driving a Prius?

 

[thabigbluenation]

the people around him have made it extremely clear that he will not accept a VP offer from Trump; they're much more silent about Rubio and Cruz. Obviously Kasich himself hasn't said anything to drive home the message either way, but the evidence only points one way at this point.

Calipari said he was happy at Memphis. That is what people say before they say something otherwise.

 

[AlbanyWildCat]

You still arrogantly sniffing your own farts and driving a Prius?

Just love checking in...I'm hoping she reaching out to Obama so he can share his secrets on winning that ever dwindling voting bloc.

 

[warrior-cat]

Just love checking in...I'm hoping she reaching out to Obama so he can share his secrets on winning that ever dwindling voting bloc.

There is no secret formula for the dems. Whoever the DNC picks (not the people) it is accepted and they will vote them in.

 

[TransyCat09]

I'd make a bet that if Trump were to be losing badly going into the last month of the election he would just drop out and leave everyone holding the bag.

 

[Mojocat]

Well, I'm no smarter than your average bear, and my memory ain't so great sometimes. But I definitely recall people on the right rationalizing things in 2008. They simply couldn't believe this country would elect someone with perceived socialist leanings, who got his political start in the living room of a guy who bombed the Pentagon. Couldn't believe someone like that could defeat a war hero. (Even if no one on the right was crazy about the war hero, either.) So, the polls must be wrong.

 

[Mojocat]

Interesting stuff in that new WSJ/NBC poll. First there is this sentence - which sort of tells you all you need to know about the "Clinton Machine":

"But with 51% of voters holding a negative view of Mrs. Clinton, she is viewed far less favorably than any eventual nominee who didn't already occupy the White House, going back to her husband's winning campaign in 1992. At this point in the 2012 campaign, 39% of registered voters viewed Mr. Romney negatively."

Any time you're losing to Mitt Romney by 12 points, in anything, you got real problems.

But then you see the head to head matchups:

Clinton 51%
Trump 38%

She is a historically weak candidate, and the Rs could beat her with any number of candidates. Just not, I fear, the one they're going to pick......

 

[krazykats]

Just remember she was the one after Bush and a 2 year senator spanked her pretty bad then again in 2012. And this year while she is winning vs Bernie it isn't quite landslide everyone expected.

She isn't very good at this and when it's her and Trump he won't be so easy. Now it may run a few the wrong way but after weeks of hearing these two a certain segment will decide they are screwed regardless and not show up like they did for Obama. That will hurt her chances.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

Interesting stuff in that new WSJ/NBC poll. First there is this sentence - which sort of tells you all you need to know about the "Clinton Machine":

"But with 51% of voters holding a negative view of Mrs. Clinton, she is viewed far less favorably than any eventual nominee who didn't already occupy the White House, going back to her husband's winning campaign in 1992. At this point in the 2012 campaign, 39% of registered voters viewed Mr. Romney negatively."

Any time you're losing to Mitt Romney by 12 points, in anything, you got real problems.

But then you see the head to head matchups:

Clinton 51%
Trump 38%

She is a historically weak candidate, and the Rs could beat her with any number of candidates. Just not, I fear, the one they're going to pick......

What electoral map can you realistically conceive where Rubio beats her? He cant win his home state in the primary. Cruz? Hed lose everything except the bible belt, and probably not even dominate there. Kasich? Maybe, but he cant get any traction in the primary.

Whos left other than Trump? He can win both FL and OH; and maybe MI. He can swing Nevada too. Ya hes far from a great candidate, but in terms of electoral map chances; hes the best they have.

 

[Mojocat]

So Rubio is done. Will be interesting to see what he does now. Read something the other day about a change in strategy on the part of "the establishment" in terms of stopping Trump. The idea that everyone but one other person should get out, making it one on one and exposing Trump's ceiling, is evidently so December. Now they want everyone else to stay in - only Kasich can stop him in Ohio, only Rubio in Florida, only Cruz in other places. But that was a week ago - now I don't think anyone thinks Rubio can win in Florida.

A lot of stuff written in last couple of days about his natural political talent, about how dropping out now and supporting Cruz or Kasich wins him some goodwill, positioning him for the Florida gov chair and then better positioned for 2020 race. I think it all misses a key point. Gang of Eight. Even in a normal year, that single issue was gonna cause him problems in his own party. I'm not so sure it won't be a permanent noose around his neck.......I'm trying to think of another politician viewed as pretty talented with a strong future that was derailed by a single issue or vote.....

 

[Mojocat]

She isn't very good at this....

Very much agree with you on that. I think those who say it will take a monumental effort to beat her are wrong. Everyone thinks because her name is Clinton she is some tough political force. That was her husband. She is a weak candidate. Generally her history is the more people get to know her, the more she's in the spotlight at a given time, the less people like her. The one reason I'm not totally fatalistic about the chances of beating her in November is she's not a very good candidate....

 

[Mojocat]

What electoral map can you realistically conceive where Rubio beats her? He cant win his home state in the primary. Cruz? Hed lose everything except the bible belt, and probably not even dominate there. Kasich? Maybe, but he cant get any traction in the primary.

Whos left other than Trump? He can win both FL and OH; and maybe MI. He can swing Nevada too. Ya hes far from a great candidate, but in terms of electoral map chances; hes the best they have.

Well, I wasn't advocating for someone else necessarily, just making the point (again!) that I think he's likely a loser.

But since you asked, the same poll shows this:

Clinton 47%
Cruz 45%

Clinton 46%
Rubio 46%

But, I agree with you if you think those are worthless numbers. After a summer of negative advertising, she'd likely destroy Cruz. Rubio would fare better in a general, probably - but that's moot as he's DOA.....

As I said the other day, I think the right has likely dicked around and boxed themselves into a losing position in what should have been a winnable year.......

 

[WettCat]

MITT!!!!! 2016!!!!

 

[AlbanyWildCat]

It will be fascniating to see if Hillary understands how terrible she actualy is and should stop listening to her currrent advisors. She needs to reach out to Warren sooner than later...though not sure Warren wants anything to do with her.

If there is one thing that constantly shows how terrible Hillary is, she consistantly put herself around some terrible political advisors.

Biden has to be kicking himself daily...

 

[bigblueinsanity]

Well, I wasn't advocating for someone else necessarily, just making the point (again!) that I think he's likely a loser.

But since you asked, the same poll shows this:

Clinton 47%
Cruz 45%

Clinton 46%
Rubio 46%

But, I agree with you if you think those are worthless numbers. After a summer of negative advertising, she'd likely destroy Cruz. Rubio would fare better in a general, probably - but that's moot as he's DOA.....

As I said the other day, I think the right has likely dicked around and boxed themselves into a losing position in what should have been a winnable year.......

I agree. Itll be tough to beat Hillary, even if everything goes right. Id love to see Kasich get traction, but he seems reluctant to get dirty. You cant hold back running against her, because she definitely wont hold back. And she has tons of dirt thats all fair game.

I agree the GOP messed this up. They had years to position themselves for this, knowing their opponent would be tough but bring tons of baggage. Yet theyve produced nothing other than Kasich.

 

[jamo0001]

remember when we were discussing "Jebbing" as a verb?