One other option 4th and 8

[Deeeefense]

A lot of debate over the decision to punt with 3 minutes left instead of trying to convert 4th and 8 - the debate has been between punting or going for it, but it just occurred to me that there was a 3rd option. The ball was at the UGA 47 YL. That would have been a 64 yard field goal attempt. But Jacob Kauwer kicks them in practice at the distance under rush. Wonder if that was even considered?

Could you image the reaction across the country if that had happened?

 

[Short-Dawg-69]

Either way if it works for you you’re a hero.
If it works against you… you played not to win…..

I feel okay with the call but not over happy. In hopes our D comes up with a quick stop.

I personally would have had a package and trick play in the bag just for something like this.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

Even if he makes that kick, uga would have marched down the field and scored most likely.

 

[gojvc]

A lot of debate over the decision to punt with 3 minutes left instead of trying to convert 4th and 8 - the debate has been between punting or going for it, but it just occurred to me that there was a 3rd option. The ball was at the UGA 47 YL. That would have been a 64 yard field goal attempt. But Jacob Kauwer kicks them in practice at the distance under rush. Wonder if that was even considered?

Could you image the reaction across the country if that had happened?

I’ve been supportive of Mark Stoops but that decision was an absolute catastrophe. It was the worst decision made by a UK coach at least since the Joker Phillips decision to punt from the Tennessee 37 yard line, and maybe the worst ever. It’s a shame after all he’s done here but this was a legacy defining catastrophe. I’m 56 years old and Kentucky football fans will be talking about this until the day I draw my last breath and beyond. 24 hours ago I thought people talking about running off Mark Stoops were certifiably insane. But now, he could hit the trail this very minute for all I care.

 

[Deeeefense]

I’ve been supportive of Mark Stoops but that decision was an absolute catastrophe. It was the worst decision made by a UK coach at least since the Joker Phillips decision to punt from the Tennessee 37 yard line, and maybe the worst ever. It’s a shame after all he’s done here but this was a legacy defining catastrophe. I’m 56 years old and Kentucky football fans will be talking about this until the day I draw my last breath and beyond. 24 hours ago I thought people talking about running off Mark Stoops were certifiably insane. But now, he could hit the trail this very minute for all I care.

There are a lot of knowledgeable people that support the decision to punt based on the analytics but that horse has been beat to death. I just wanted to point out that there might have been a 3rd option.

 

[JimBR]

There are a lot of knowledgeable people that support the decision to punt based on the analytics but that horse has been beat to death. I just wanted to point out that there might have been a 3rd option.

I would have preferred your option suggestion to a punt. The punt at the moment seemed chicken s to me.

 

[JASUN74]

I would’ve rather went for it personally but I don’t think it was a bad call. Had the defense not giving up another 3rd and 15 or whatever it was, we get the ball back with over two minutes and have a chance. I was very impressed with our defense all game and think it was of the best defensive performances since Josh Allen was destroying QBs. lol. Once again losing a game because we play 15 yards away from receivers and give up a big wide open first down should be a wake up call to maybe play a little tighter. Can’t have everything I suppose and I know they had to be tired but that was definitely time to buckle down and make a stop.

So close, had we won last weekend, we’d all be very happy and thinking about ten wins possibly. I’m still thinking we could get 6-7 and am definitely feeling better about the team. Hopefully we come out and get the offense some confidence next week that puts us back on track for the rest of this season. Thanks

 

[JASUN74]

Ohh, yeah I agree Defeeefence, I wouldn’t have cared one bit to let that young man go try that long kick. Who knows, hit it and you’re a genius and the kids is an instant superstar. Ha.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

No way the kid is making a 64 yarder in that situation.

O% chance.

 

[ZZZZCat]

Nah you gotta control your own destiny at home in an upset bid against a more talented #1

 

[Deeeefense]

No way the kid is making a 64 yarder in that situation.

O% chance.

0%? 🤣

He makes them in practice from that distance under rush so why would he not have a chance? Raynor made one earlier just 9 yards less in that same direction. Given the fact that the other two options were not exactly optimal, that might have made sense.

 

[gamecockcat]

I wonder which, according to analytics, had the better chance: 64-yard FG, 4th and 8 or punt/hold/score?

 

[Deeeefense]

I wonder which, according to analytics, had the better chance: 64-yard FG, 4th and 8 or punt/hold/score?

Too many variables there to get an accurate number on the punt - down, distance, time, TOs etc. all factor in into it. The skill of the individual kicker would dictate the success rate of the FG. The average conversating rate in college football of a 4th and 8 is 20-30% but that's an average. This would be against the #1 defense in college football, so it's likely around half that number. Plus we hadn't exactly had much success throwing the ball and it was too long to try to make it on the ground.

Just spit balling this is what I would come up with:

Convert 4th and 8, kick field goal succssfully on that possession - 10%
Punt, hold, get ball back on your 30 =/- 10 YL drive 40 yards, kick a FG - 15%
Jacob Kauwer kick a 64 yard FG now - 25%

The upside to the kick is it has the highest probability of success. It's only one event that is doable and doesn't depend on a multiple of things occurring like the other two. But the downside is UGA get's the ball back with a lot of time on the clock. So pick your poison. Unfortunately the coaches didn't have the time luxury to go through a lengthy analysis so the punt was probably as good of an option as any.

 

[catfan220]

A lot of debate over the decision to punt with 3 minutes left instead of trying to convert 4th and 8 - the debate has been between punting or going for it, but it just occurred to me that there was a 3rd option. The ball was at the UGA 47 YL. That would have been a 64 yard field goal attempt. But Jacob Kauwer kicks them in practice at the distance under rush. Wonder if that was even considered?

Could you image the reaction across the country if that had happened?

I have my own third option. Or, fourth, I guess. Line up and try to bait the defense into an offsides. If you get it the 4th down is manageable. If they don’t take the bait you take the penalty yards and punt from the 50, ie essentially no different from what we did.

 

[EliteBlue]

Either way if it works for you you’re a hero.
If it works against you… you played not to win…..

I feel okay with the call but not over happy. In hopes our D comes up with a quick stop.

I personally would have had a package and trick play in the bag just for something like this.

Part of what makes punting the wrong decision is that our offense hadn’t effectively moved the ball consistently all day. Punting and quick stop strategy is still counting in putting a drive together to get to scoring position after getting another stop on the #1 team in the nation. It’s improbable. You’re already 10 yards from FG range…your best odds are playing for the FG and 4 down territory right then and there

 

[EliteBlue]

A lot of debate over the decision to punt with 3 minutes left instead of trying to convert 4th and 8 - the debate has been between punting or going for it, but it just occurred to me that there was a 3rd option. The ball was at the UGA 47 YL. That would have been a 64 yard field goal attempt. But Jacob Kauwer kicks them in practice at the distance under rush. Wonder if that was even considered?

Could you image the reaction across the country if that had happened?

Even more of a reason why we should have ran or screen pass on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down bc even a 4th and 3 makes it a 59 yard FG. Just needed to not waste any downs and you have a shot to win

 

[Tf2217]

You're not going to kick a 64 no way no how..... I don't think. Especially not with a kicker kicking his first kick with that kind of pressure. Raynor doesn't have the leg for a kick that distance. He hit that 55 ( I'm not sure it had much past 56).
Definitely doesn't have 12 more. I.was so excited to see him hit a 50+ that's his only knock was the deep kicks if he can hit a mid 50s and with his accuracy he will have a better shot at the NFL than Austin Mac.

Well anyway back to the 64 yarder......You miss it and it's for sure over with even less of a shot than punting gave you which is slim.

You gotta man up and live or die with your best playcall on 4-8 they stop it and you tip your hat to a great defensive stand to win it. Likewise if you convert the chances of you attempting a FG and putting immense pressure on GA is almost certain.

But again if you miss it, they'll be the crowd saying we stopped them all night we should've punted. Those situations are always hindsight being 20/20 things while I don't agree with the way we handled it but there was going to be moaning no matter the call if it failed.

 

[Dead Cat Bounce]

At first I thought you were talking about Raynor, and I mulled it, before remembering the 55ish yard FG that he kicked last night. That kick did not seem to have nine extra yards in it. I don't know what Kauwer can do, but that seems like a lot of pressure to put on anyone other than your starting FG kicker.

 

[BigTyrone]

That’s a third option, that’s 3 are less than ideal. I probably would have gone for it, but I’m not confident it would have worked. I don’t really like punting, but we were looking at a situation with no good solutions.

 

[Dead Cat Bounce]

Part of what makes punting the wrong decision is that our offense hadn’t effectively moved the ball consistently all day. Punting and quick stop strategy is still counting in putting a drive together to get to scoring position after getting another stop on the #1 team in the nation. It’s improbable. You’re already 10 yards from FG range…your best odds are playing for the FG and 4 down territory right then and there

That’s one of the more convincing takes I’ve read on the situation. That being said, in the moment, I personally had more confidence in our D making a stop or forcing a turnover than in our O moving the chains on 4th and 8.

 

[Perrin75]

The real option was why the hell are you lining up in shotgun and throwing the ball on second and third when you have been successful running the ball and struggling with protection? If you want to pass, then use a quick slant or play action and/or a boot to slow down the rush and to give your QB a run/pass option. Asking this offense to get 8 yards in an obvious passing situation would have been almost an impossible task. After the false start penalty, there were no options other than punting.

 

[Deeeefense]

Even more of a reason why we should have ran or screen pass on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down bc even a 4th and 3 makes it a 59 yard FG. Just needed to not waste any downs and you have a shot to win

Good point. I'm wondering if that was even considered?

 

[JonathanW]

There are a lot of knowledgeable people that support the decision to punt based on the analytics but that horse has been beat to death. I just wanted to point out that there might have been a 3rd option.

Actually I think the analytics support going for it.

 

[trueblujr2]

Too many variables there to get an accurate number on the punt - down, distance, time, TOs etc. all factor in into it. The skill of the individual kicker would dictate the success rate of the FG. The average conversating rate in college football of a 4th and 8 is 20-30% but that's an average. This would be against the #1 defense in college football, so it's likely around half that number. Plus we hadn't exactly had much success throwing the ball and it was too long to try to make it on the ground.

Just spit balling this is what I would come up with:

Convert 4th and 8, kick field goal succssfully on that possession - 10%
Punt, hold, get ball back on your 30 =/- 10 YL drive 40 yards, kick a FG - 15%
Jacob Kauwer kick a 64 yard FG now - 25%

The upside to the kick is it has the highest probability of success. It's only one event that is doable and doesn't depend on a multiple of things occurring like the other two. But the downside is UGA get's the ball back with a lot of time on the clock. So pick your poison. Unfortunately the coaches didn't have the time luxury to go through a lengthy analysis so the punt was probably as good of an option as any.

So put in a true freshman for his first ever FG attempt to be a 64 yard potential game winner against the No. 1 team in the country. Yeah, that's not throwing a kid into the fire at all.

No, the punt was moot after UGA gained a bunch to put themselves right around the area where we punted or where they would have taken over on downs if we failed to convert. Only difference was a few seconds off the clock. Ideally we convert the 4th & 8 then run the clock down by keeping it on the ground with the goal of getting to about the 30 if we don't break one. Then try the game winning FG with under :10 on the clock. I hate that new 2:00 timeout BS though. Just another TV commercial money grab.

 

[Deeeefense]

So put in a true freshman for his first ever FG attempt to be a 64 yard potential game winner against the No. 1 team in the country. Yeah, that's not throwing a kid into the fire at all.

Of course it's throwing him into a hot situation, but they didn't recruit this kid to sit on the bench and watch, and I'll bet he would have loved the opportunity to go out on the field and show what he can do.

People have bitched to high heaven about Stoops not willing to risks, now I'm hearing that this would be too risky 🤣

 

[Soupbean]

A lot of debate over the decision to punt with 3 minutes left instead of trying to convert 4th and 8 - the debate has been between punting or going for it, but it just occurred to me that there was a 3rd option. The ball was at the UGA 47 YL. That would have been a 64 yard field goal attempt. But Jacob Kauwer kicks them in practice at the distance under rush. Wonder if that was even considered?

Could you image the reaction across the country if that had happened?

That would have been epic and maybe not as far fetched as first blush.

 

[WyleECoyote]

I personally think the 4th and 2 where we kicked the FG is more frustrating than the 4th and 8.

 

[simnalecho]

I agree with punting in that situation. Kirby Smart could have picked any 11 people out of the stands, and they would have been able to pressure BV. Until the line starts to pass block batter or they start getting BV to get out of the pocket, 3rd/4th and long are going to be a problem.

 

[TNTUK]

There are a lot of knowledgeable people that support the decision to punt based on the analytics but that horse has been beat to death. I just wanted to point out that there might have been a 3rd option.

The analytics actually gave UK a 34% chance to win the game if they went for it, and only 12% if we punted.

 

[Deeeefense]

The analytics actually gave UK a 34% chance to win the game if they went for it, and only 12% if we punted.

I've heard this stat several times but no one has ever provided a link to the source. I don't think it is based on the situation we had. If it exists at all it's likely based on a generic defense in a typical 4th and short situation, not the best defense in the country defending a 4th and 8. In reality the probability of UK converting 4th and 8 in that situation was probably around 10%.

As far as the 12% punting goes unless you have history of the same situation down & distance, time on clock, TOs left, relative strength of teams I don't see how it's possible to come up with a number there short of just guessing.

In reality these were both very low probability choices.

 

[gojvc]

I personally think the 4th and 2 where we kicked the FG is more frustrating than the 4th and 8.

That one was frustrating because we ran the ball the previous play on 3rd and 8. We were totally settling for the field goal.

 

[cats#1again]

A lot of debate over the decision to punt with 3 minutes left instead of trying to convert 4th and 8 - the debate has been between punting or going for it, but it just occurred to me that there was a 3rd option. The ball was at the UGA 47 YL. That would have been a 64 yard field goal attempt. But Jacob Kauwer kicks them in practice at the distance under rush. Wonder if that was even considered?

Could you image the reaction across the country if that had happened?

As scared as stoops was , no way he would do that. I doubt he would let him kick at 54 with game on line

 

[trueblujr2]

Of course it's throwing him into a hot situation, but they didn't recruit this kid to sit on the bench and watch, and I'll bet he would have loved the opportunity to go out on the field and show what he can do.

People have bitched to high heaven about Stoops not willing to risks, now I'm hearing that this would be too risky 🤣

well, yeah, they kinda did this year with Raynor still being in the fold. I'm sure they are doing what they can to preserve his redshirt and tossing him out there could burn one if something were to happen to Raynor and he couldn't kick late in the season.

Any 64 yard field goal at any level is risky.

 

[Deeeefense]

well, yeah, they kinda did this year with Raynor still being in the fold. I'm sure they are doing what they can to preserve his redshirt and tossing him out there could burn one if something were to happen to Raynor and he couldn't kick late in the season.

Any 64 yard field goal at any level is risky.

When your trying to beat #1 I don't think you should be that concerned about a red shirt, especially since he can play in 4 games and keep it.

All 3 options were risky, the question is which one is more likely to succeed. I don't claim to know but it was a possibility to kick there.

 

[ukfan1622]

Of course there is never a 4th and 8 if we don't throw a bomb on 2nd and 8 and then try to pick up the entire 8 on 3rd and 8. I'm repeating myself but they never thought about 4th down until 4th down; if they'd been thinking 4 down football(like everybody else in the world would), the calls on 2nd and 3rd down would have been different. They were coaching the same as if it were a 1st quarter drive.

 

[TNTUK]

I've heard this stat several times but no one has ever provided a link to the source. I don't think it is based on the situation we had. If it exists at all it's likely based on a generic defense in a typical 4th and short situation, not the best defense in the country defending a 4th and 8. In reality the probability of UK converting 4th and 8 in that situation was probably around 10%.

As far as the 12% punting goes unless you have history of the same situation down & distance, time on clock, TOs left, relative strength of teams I don't see how it's possible to come up with a number there short of just guessing.

In reality these were both very low probability choices.

 

[TNTUK]

I've heard this stat several times but no one has ever provided a link to the source. I don't think it is based on the situation we had. If it exists at all it's likely based on a generic defense in a typical 4th and short situation, not the best defense in the country defending a 4th and 8. In reality the probability of UK converting 4th and 8 in that situation was probably around 10%.

As far as the 12% punting goes unless you have history of the same situation down & distance, time on clock, TOs left, relative strength of teams I don't see how it's possible to come up with a number there short of just guessing.

In reality these were both very low probability choices.

Also - punting is technically the same as going for it and not getting the first down. (We only got +30 yards with the punt so it wasnt a huge difference field position wise). So why not at least try going for it?

 

[ukfan1622]

Also - punting is technically the same as going for it and not getting the first down. (We only got +30 yards with the punt so it wasnt a huge difference field position wise). So why not at least try going for it?

Exactly!

 

[Deeeefense]

Also - punting is technically the same as going for it and not getting the first down. (We only got +30 yards with the punt so it wasnt a huge difference field position wise). So why not at least try going for it?

I'm sure if Stoops knew ahead of time that Smart would complete a 30 yard pass down field he would have made a different choice. Most teams in the spot would run the ball 3 times to burn clock and force TOs and then punt. Good on Smart, he rolled the dice and won.

 

[BBNinSC]

The analytics actually gave UK a 34% chance to win the game if they went for it, and only 12% if we punted.

I don’t give a damn about analytics. There are too many variables that analytics can’t account for. Georgia will bring in one of their 5 star RB and just run out the clock.