One other option 4th and 8

[Deeeefense]

A lot of debate over the decision to punt with 3 minutes left instead of trying to convert 4th and 8 - the debate has been between punting or going for it, but it just occurred to me that there was a 3rd option. The ball was at the UGA 47 YL. That would have been a 64 yard field goal attempt. But Jacob Kauwer kicks them in practice at the distance under rush. Wonder if that was even considered?

Could you image the reaction across the country if that had happened?

 

[Short-Dawg-69]

Either way if it works for you you’re a hero.
If it works against you… you played not to win…..

I feel okay with the call but not over happy. In hopes our D comes up with a quick stop.

I personally would have had a package and trick play in the bag just for something like this.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

Even if he makes that kick, uga would have marched down the field and scored most likely.

 

[gojvc]

A lot of debate over the decision to punt with 3 minutes left instead of trying to convert 4th and 8 - the debate has been between punting or going for it, but it just occurred to me that there was a 3rd option. The ball was at the UGA 47 YL. That would have been a 64 yard field goal attempt. But Jacob Kauwer kicks them in practice at the distance under rush. Wonder if that was even considered?

Could you image the reaction across the country if that had happened?

I’ve been supportive of Mark Stoops but that decision was an absolute catastrophe. It was the worst decision made by a UK coach at least since the Joker Phillips decision to punt from the Tennessee 37 yard line, and maybe the worst ever. It’s a shame after all he’s done here but this was a legacy defining catastrophe. I’m 56 years old and Kentucky football fans will be talking about this until the day I draw my last breath and beyond. 24 hours ago I thought people talking about running off Mark Stoops were certifiably insane. But now, he could hit the trail this very minute for all I care.

 

[Deeeefense]

I’ve been supportive of Mark Stoops but that decision was an absolute catastrophe. It was the worst decision made by a UK coach at least since the Joker Phillips decision to punt from the Tennessee 37 yard line, and maybe the worst ever. It’s a shame after all he’s done here but this was a legacy defining catastrophe. I’m 56 years old and Kentucky football fans will be talking about this until the day I draw my last breath and beyond. 24 hours ago I thought people talking about running off Mark Stoops were certifiably insane. But now, he could hit the trail this very minute for all I care.

There are a lot of knowledgeable people that support the decision to punt based on the analytics but that horse has been beat to death. I just wanted to point out that there might have been a 3rd option.

 

[JimBR]

There are a lot of knowledgeable people that support the decision to punt based on the analytics but that horse has been beat to death. I just wanted to point out that there might have been a 3rd option.

I would have preferred your option suggestion to a punt. The punt at the moment seemed chicken s to me.

 

[JASUN74]

I would’ve rather went for it personally but I don’t think it was a bad call. Had the defense not giving up another 3rd and 15 or whatever it was, we get the ball back with over two minutes and have a chance. I was very impressed with our defense all game and think it was of the best defensive performances since Josh Allen was destroying QBs. lol. Once again losing a game because we play 15 yards away from receivers and give up a big wide open first down should be a wake up call to maybe play a little tighter. Can’t have everything I suppose and I know they had to be tired but that was definitely time to buckle down and make a stop.

So close, had we won last weekend, we’d all be very happy and thinking about ten wins possibly. I’m still thinking we could get 6-7 and am definitely feeling better about the team. Hopefully we come out and get the offense some confidence next week that puts us back on track for the rest of this season. Thanks

 

[JASUN74]

Ohh, yeah I agree Defeeefence, I wouldn’t have cared one bit to let that young man go try that long kick. Who knows, hit it and you’re a genius and the kids is an instant superstar. Ha.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

No way the kid is making a 64 yarder in that situation.

O% chance.

 

[ZZZZCat]

Nah you gotta control your own destiny at home in an upset bid against a more talented #1

 

[Deeeefense]

No way the kid is making a 64 yarder in that situation.

O% chance.

0%? 🤣

He makes them in practice from that distance under rush so why would he not have a chance? Raynor made one earlier just 9 yards less in that same direction. Given the fact that the other two options were not exactly optimal, that might have made sense.

 

[gamecockcat]

I wonder which, according to analytics, had the better chance: 64-yard FG, 4th and 8 or punt/hold/score?

 

[Deeeefense]

I wonder which, according to analytics, had the better chance: 64-yard FG, 4th and 8 or punt/hold/score?

Too many variables there to get an accurate number on the punt - down, distance, time, TOs etc. all factor in into it. The skill of the individual kicker would dictate the success rate of the FG. The average conversating rate in college football of a 4th and 8 is 20-30% but that's an average. This would be against the #1 defense in college football, so it's likely around half that number. Plus we hadn't exactly had much success throwing the ball and it was too long to try to make it on the ground.

Just spit balling this is what I would come up with:

Convert 4th and 8, kick field goal succssfully on that possession - 10%
Punt, hold, get ball back on your 30 =/- 10 YL drive 40 yards, kick a FG - 15%
Jacob Kauwer kick a 64 yard FG now - 25%

The upside to the kick is it has the highest probability of success. It's only one event that is doable and doesn't depend on a multiple of things occurring like the other two. But the downside is UGA get's the ball back with a lot of time on the clock. So pick your poison. Unfortunately the coaches didn't have the time luxury to go through a lengthy analysis so the punt was probably as good of an option as any.

 

[catfan220]

A lot of debate over the decision to punt with 3 minutes left instead of trying to convert 4th and 8 - the debate has been between punting or going for it, but it just occurred to me that there was a 3rd option. The ball was at the UGA 47 YL. That would have been a 64 yard field goal attempt. But Jacob Kauwer kicks them in practice at the distance under rush. Wonder if that was even considered?

Could you image the reaction across the country if that had happened?

I have my own third option. Or, fourth, I guess. Line up and try to bait the defense into an offsides. If you get it the 4th down is manageable. If they don’t take the bait you take the penalty yards and punt from the 50, ie essentially no different from what we did.

 

[EliteBlue]

Either way if it works for you you’re a hero.
If it works against you… you played not to win…..

I feel okay with the call but not over happy. In hopes our D comes up with a quick stop.

I personally would have had a package and trick play in the bag just for something like this.

Part of what makes punting the wrong decision is that our offense hadn’t effectively moved the ball consistently all day. Punting and quick stop strategy is still counting in putting a drive together to get to scoring position after getting another stop on the #1 team in the nation. It’s improbable. You’re already 10 yards from FG range…your best odds are playing for the FG and 4 down territory right then and there

 

[EliteBlue]

A lot of debate over the decision to punt with 3 minutes left instead of trying to convert 4th and 8 - the debate has been between punting or going for it, but it just occurred to me that there was a 3rd option. The ball was at the UGA 47 YL. That would have been a 64 yard field goal attempt. But Jacob Kauwer kicks them in practice at the distance under rush. Wonder if that was even considered?

Could you image the reaction across the country if that had happened?

Even more of a reason why we should have ran or screen pass on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down bc even a 4th and 3 makes it a 59 yard FG. Just needed to not waste any downs and you have a shot to win

 

[Tf2217]

You're not going to kick a 64 no way no how..... I don't think. Especially not with a kicker kicking his first kick with that kind of pressure. Raynor doesn't have the leg for a kick that distance. He hit that 55 ( I'm not sure it had much past 56).
Definitely doesn't have 12 more. I.was so excited to see him hit a 50+ that's his only knock was the deep kicks if he can hit a mid 50s and with his accuracy he will have a better shot at the NFL than Austin Mac.

Well anyway back to the 64 yarder......You miss it and it's for sure over with even less of a shot than punting gave you which is slim.

You gotta man up and live or die with your best playcall on 4-8 they stop it and you tip your hat to a great defensive stand to win it. Likewise if you convert the chances of you attempting a FG and putting immense pressure on GA is almost certain.

But again if you miss it, they'll be the crowd saying we stopped them all night we should've punted. Those situations are always hindsight being 20/20 things while I don't agree with the way we handled it but there was going to be moaning no matter the call if it failed.

 

[Dead Cat Bounce]

At first I thought you were talking about Raynor, and I mulled it, before remembering the 55ish yard FG that he kicked last night. That kick did not seem to have nine extra yards in it. I don't know what Kauwer can do, but that seems like a lot of pressure to put on anyone other than your starting FG kicker.

 

[BigTyrone]

That’s a third option, that’s 3 are less than ideal. I probably would have gone for it, but I’m not confident it would have worked. I don’t really like punting, but we were looking at a situation with no good solutions.

 

[Dead Cat Bounce]

Part of what makes punting the wrong decision is that our offense hadn’t effectively moved the ball consistently all day. Punting and quick stop strategy is still counting in putting a drive together to get to scoring position after getting another stop on the #1 team in the nation. It’s improbable. You’re already 10 yards from FG range…your best odds are playing for the FG and 4 down territory right then and there

That’s one of the more convincing takes I’ve read on the situation. That being said, in the moment, I personally had more confidence in our D making a stop or forcing a turnover than in our O moving the chains on 4th and 8.