Most baffling stat about the starting 5

[CRZ4UK]

I was out of the country for the last 3 games. I wanted to watch all 3 and decided with all the controversy about who starts I wanted to watch for ONE THING. I looked for the starting 5 to play together later in the game. Guess What??? Never happened
Not once. Those 5 started and played about 4 minutes together. 8 minutes at LSU. Then,…. Never on the floor together again until the start of the 2nd half. Four minutes again. Then never again in all 3 second halves. What coach can you ever recall for any team ….ever…. that the starters never play again together for 3 straight games?? What possible motivation does he have to start a lineup he WONT play together again the entire game??? That’s baffling?? If I missed one time don’t cuss me out but watching all 3 the starting 5 never played together again until they started the second half. Then never again after that.

 

[ukcatz12]

So Kenpom actually tracks the percentage of time each specific lineup gets. Over the last five games the starting five of DJ, Edwards, Thiero, Reeves, and Ugo have been getting 12.6% of the minutes. The only lineup getting more time than that is Reed, Dillingham, Reeves, Thiero, and Ugo at 13.7.

So it's not really like the starting five is getting quick minutes to start and then another lineup of five guys are getting a ton more minutes. We just have so many lineup combinations that one single group of five doesn't really get the bulk of the minutes, regardless of what five that is.

And this is the depth chart over the past five games. For everyone complaining about DJ, you should note that Reed gets the vast majority of the PG minutes.

 

[Rideordiewildcat]

I was out of the country for the last 3 games. I wanted to watch all 3 and decided with all the controversy about who starts I wanted to watch for ONE THING. I looked for the starting 5 to play together later in the game. Guess What??? Never happened
Not once. Those 5 started and played about 4 minutes together. 8 minutes at LSU. Then,…. Never on the floor together again until the start of the 2nd half. Four minutes again. Then never again in all 3 second halves. What coach can you ever recall for any team ….ever…. that the starters never play again together for 3 straight games?? What possible motivation does he have to start a lineup he WONT play together again the entire game??? That’s baffling?? If I missed one time don’t cuss me out but watching all 3 the starting 5 never played together again until they started the second half. Then never again after that.

I think Cal knows who he has to have out there at the end to win yet wants his 5 stars feeling good. So he starts DJ, Edwards and Ugo. I mean even Cal has to know there are 3 better players on the bench in Shep, Rob and Z right?

To me its just more Cal bs. Games are tough enough for a young team without Cal putting us in a hole to start every half. I honestly feel like his lineup bs is an 8-10 pt problem per game.

Square pegs and round holes. Should have been Cal's books name.

 

[Smashcat]

fwiw

 

[etowncatfan]

fwiw

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I call BS!!

 

[crestcat]

I don’t think DJ would get nearly as much grief if he wasn’t starting ahead of Reed. BBN can see who should be starting and they’re not..
I can’t recall any coach doing this four minute thing before, although the drunk BCG did start Coury but I don’t count that.

 

[dl51344]

Promises made, promises kept.

 

[Eagles_Ball]

Opposing teams practice their defensive sets and tendencies against the upcoming opponent’s starting five. We did this every game when I played in college. You are focused on guarding Wagner or Thiero or Edwards: His tendencies, does he go to his left, use a head fake? Can you cheat to help guard someone else in the line-up?

If that line-up is then rarely in the floor together it totally disrupts the defense.

Okay, had you going there. The real answer; It doesn’t matter to anyone but weirdo obsessive fans who don’t really know the game. Who is on the floor at the end matters. In-game substitutions to gain an advantage or keep key players fresh matter. Not who starts.

In the last four games Kentucky has two road wins over a Top 15 team and a Quad 1 team and a home blow-out over a Top 15 team. The loss was on the road after building a 15 point lead. That collapse involved defensive lapses by starters and by the guy who people apparently think it is necessary to start. It had nothing to do with who had started.

You know what does matter? The fact he’s played too many lineups too many minutes. That’s the biggest issue. He should have one lineup getting near or at 40% of the mins together. He’s not even close to that. And, btw, the top performing lineups should be playing together. Per the analytics, they’re not. That’s what matters and is what is wrong with who he plays.

 

[crestcat]

Cal is just a genius, I look for most of the coaches to be doing this next season.

 

[CatEye2010]

Cal: I start who I start to create a false sense of security. Then, I bring in the heavy artillery and BOOM!.

Doubt he actually thinks that, but if not, it seems to work most of the time. Kind of a "rope-a-dope" strategy.

 

[ukfan1622]

I think Cal knows who he has to have out there at the end to win yet wants his 5 stars feeling good. So he starts DJ, Edwards and Ugo. I mean even Cal has to know there are 3 better players on the bench in Shep, Rob and Z right?

To me its just more Cal bs. Games are tough enough for a young team without Cal putting us in a hole to start every half. I honestly feel like his lineup bs is an 8-10 pt problem per game.

Square pegs and round holes. Should have been Cal's books name.

yes

 

[Oldbluefart]

As a UK fan, I truly want every player who wears that uniform to achieve greatness. I do not bash players even though they are not playing up to their so called "5 Star" billing.
It is clear these stars placed by a players name is political in nature; who you know sort of thing.
With that, I look at DJ Wagner and see a kid who brings many good things to the table but just like all the other players, he has areas he could improve upon.
I was tickled s***less to watch Reed Sheppard hit that shot the other night. I have several items from when Jeff played at UK hanging on my walls.
But it was a huge thing for DJ Wagner to have the ball at the start of that last possession; the defense knows he can drive to the basket with the best of them and when he started his move to the basket, several Miss St players overplayed a little that way causing DJ to pass to Reed.
Yes, he made the shot with two players all over him but it was that opening created by those defensive players overplaying the drive by DJ that had them a split second late closing the lane for Reed's drive.

My point in all this; each player brings something special to this team and when they play off each others strength and not be selfish (something this teams does not do), they have chance to be special.

Reed made the shot to win the game but everyone on that floor worked hard. Hell, Bradshaw made that dunk late in the game was a step forward for him. He went up strong on that play; something he didn't do early on.

We lost some games we should have won but watching how they responded to the officials lack of consistency to fight through all that and win on the road is a good sign fellow BBN fans.

 

[Cal's Kat]

So Kenpom actually tracks the percentage of time each specific lineup gets. Over the last five games the starting five of DJ, Edwards, Thiero, Reeves, and Ugo have been getting 12.6% of the minutes. The only lineup getting more time than that is Reed, Dillingham, Reeves, Thiero, and Ugo at 13.7.

So it's not really like the starting five is getting quick minutes to start and then another lineup of five guys are getting a ton more minutes. We just have so many lineup combinations that one single group of five doesn't really get the bulk of the minutes, regardless of what five that is.

And this is the depth chart over the past five games. For everyone complaining about DJ, you should note that Reed gets the vast majority of the PG minutes.

Thanks for posting this! Very good info.

 

[the nail at the foul line]

Cal is just a genius, I look for most of the coaches to be doing this next season.

Cal is playing chess while everyone else plays checkers.

With his queen and rooks sitting on the bench.

 

[mcnicKY91]

Promises made, promises kept.

That can't be entirely true. If so, Bradshaw would still be starting.

Once he was cleared to play, he started immediately vs Penn, UNC, etc...

But his starting spot did not last long. Cal pulled the plug, and Ugo and Z get most of the minutes.

Why would Cal do that to Bradshaw, who many regarded as our first or second best recruit, if he was made certain "promises...."

Doesn't add up, to be honest.

 

[Fitch44]

When DJ was healthy he had a few games stretch where he was arguably the best guard of the 4.
We do need him to get back to playing well to make a deep run. Reeves, Rob and Reed can’t play 40 min.
And Rob/Reed play starter minutes anyway. Hell, most of the time they are in game by 17 min mark.
A confident, efficient DJ can be had rolling into March and Cal just wants to do what he can to get him going.
I honestly have no problem with the starting line up not changing.

 

[CatsFanIL]

Promises made, promises kept.

See, I think this is just a lazy take. Aaron Bradshaw was a higher ranked recruit than DJ and he's not starting. He was the 5th overall recruit in the class and not only does he NOT START, he barely even plays. So he made a promise to Edwards and DJ but not Bradshaw or Rob?

It also doesn't make sense because it's probably much more embarassing/discontent to be subbed out 2 minutes into the game almost every game. If there's going to be a promise you care about, it sure as hell isn't going to start every game but only play a total of 12 minutes. You're more likely to seek a promise of X-amount of minutes played, or a specific position to play, not simply getting to start a game.

Reed and Rob have CRUSHED it coming off the bench. Absolutely crushed it. Sure, that means we run the risk of digging ourselves into an early deficit, but that's not a guarantee. For all we know, Rob and Reed have expressed interest or preference in being the play-makers off the bench

 

[know1]

I was out of the country for the last 3 games. I wanted to watch all 3 and decided with all the controversy about who starts I wanted to watch for ONE THING. I looked for the starting 5 to play together later in the game. Guess What??? Never happened
Not once. Those 5 started and played about 4 minutes together. 8 minutes at LSU. Then,…. Never on the floor together again until the start of the 2nd half. Four minutes again. Then never again in all 3 second halves. What coach can you ever recall for any team ….ever…. that the starters never play again together for 3 straight games?? What possible motivation does he have to start a lineup he WONT play together again the entire game??? That’s baffling?? If I missed one time don’t cuss me out but watching all 3 the starting 5 never played together again until they started the second half. Then never again after that.

I think that actually happens a fair amount with most teams. Foul trouble, injuries, somebody getting hot, somebody clearly off, etc. all come into play. Lineups in basketball are very fluid. Maybe with a team that has a top 5 or 6 that are clearly better than everyone else, it's less common. But not for deeper teams like UK.

And it's another reason spending so much time saying which lineup should start and how many minutes it gets is a waste of time.

 

[ukcatz12]

Sure, that means we run the risk of digging ourselves into an early deficit, but that's not a guarantee

The starting lineup also got off to a quick start against Auburn. Held them to only 2 points and then Reed and Rob got subbed in and extended the lead. If that's the strategy it worked perfectly that game. If you got off to a slightly slow start you can quickly sub in Reed and Rob and course correct relatively quickly.

I think people are too easily remembering the times the starting five started slow and forgetting the times they didn't.

 

[CRZ4UK]

So Kenpom actually tracks the percentage of time each specific lineup gets. Over the last five games the starting five of DJ, Edwards, Thiero, Reeves, and Ugo have been getting 12.6% of the minutes. The only lineup getting more time than that is Reed, Dillingham, Reeves, Thiero, and Ugo at 13.7.

So it's not really like the starting five is getting quick minutes to start and then another lineup of five guys are getting a ton more minutes. We just have so many lineup combinations that one single group of five doesn't really get the bulk of the minutes, regardless of what five that is.

And this is the depth chart over the past five games. For everyone complaining about DJ, you should note that Reed gets the vast majority of the PG minutes.

I did notice that the starting lineup was in sometimes with the exception of one player. But NEVER again the whole 3 games.??? A lot of different lineups…. Yes, but never the starting 5 after the start is baffling. It is like he knows the starting 5 is not a good lineup. Can KENPOM explain why it’s the starting line every game then?? Just saying.

 

[Eagles_Ball]

When DJ was healthy he had a few games stretch where he was arguably the best guard of the 4.

You'd have to be one hell of an arguer to argue that. Was he better? Sure. But man, it's really hard to argue he's been THE BEST of the guards for any stretch of time. He's hobbled, for sure. But he's also the second best PG on the team and the fourth best guard/wing. But hey, that's nothing to sneeze at given the dudes in front of him. He should/could easily get 20 mins a game backing up the three guards.

 

[Cats192]

I was out of the country for the last 3 games. I wanted to watch all 3 and decided with all the controversy about who starts I wanted to watch for ONE THING. I looked for the starting 5 to play together later in the game. Guess What??? Never happened
Not once. Those 5 started and played about 4 minutes together. 8 minutes at LSU. Then,…. Never on the floor together again until the start of the 2nd half. Four minutes again. Then never again in all 3 second halves. What coach can you ever recall for any team ….ever…. that the starters never play again together for 3 straight games?? What possible motivation does he have to start a lineup he WONT play together again the entire game??? That’s baffling?? If I missed one time don’t cuss me out but watching all 3 the starting 5 never played together again until they started the second half. Then never again after that.

I don't read this and think negatively of Cal. It seems like a weird argument

"I'm mad cuz Cal starts inferior players"

"Oh, look at this, Cal doesn't keep that group in the whole game."

So, am I to believe you'd be happier if he DID play the starting lineup (the same starting lineup so many of you question) more minutes together?

Does not compute.

 

[Cats192]

I really don't care who starts. I criticized Cal for a lot of things this year.

I think the best players need to play a lot of minutes. I think Reed/Rob/Reeves need to play a lot together. I really don't care if they start.

There's this flawed belief that we only get off to slow starts when DJ starts. DJ was out for UNCW. We got off to a slow start with Reed as the starter. We lost.

Even if you believe Reed gets us off to a better start--DJ is going to come in at some point. And if your belief is that we're going to lose the minutes DJ plays--wouldn't we still lose them when DJ comes off the bench? Reed can't play all 40.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

Wagner, Reed, Reeves, edwards and Mitchell would be a good lineup. Cal screws reeves by having no other shooters out with him to start.

The above is my Benny cal compromise lineup.

I agree with another poster that if it's promises why doesn't Bradshaw start anymore? He was supposedly the best recruit.

 

[ukcatz12]

80% of the time Kentucky starts out IN THE HOLE or fighting to stay in the game ALL HALF because of the FIRST FIVE MINUTES!!

You got stats to back this up or are you just talking out your ass? Because against Auburn the starting five everyone hates so much put Auburn in the hole.

Score when Rob and Reed came off the bench for games since SEC play started.

• Miss. St: Miss. St. lead 7-3 with DJ scoring our only points. The subs then managed to fall even further behind 14-3
• LSU: Tied 16-16
• Alabama: Alabama lead 7-3
• Auburn: UK lead 4-2
• Ole Miss: UK lead 6-5
• Gonzaga: Gonzaga led 7-4 before our first sub, DJ was still hurt and didn't start. Dillingham subbed in and Gonzaga extended their lead to 11-4.
• Vanderbilt: UK led 5-2 when Dillingham first subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Tennessee: Tennessee led 13-3 before our first sub, DJ didn't start.
• Florida: UK led 10-8 when Dillingham subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Arkansas: Arkansas lead 7-3
• South Carolina: UK lead 4-0, Reed and Dillingham sub in and South Carolina goes on a 7-0 run.
• Georgia: Georgia lead 7-6
• Miss St.: UK lead 8-5
• Texas A&M: A&M lead 15-11
• Mizzou: UK lead 19-14
• Florida: UK lead 8-6

 

[CRZ4UK]

I don't read this and think negatively of Cal. It seems like a weird argument

"I'm mad cuz Cal starts inferior players"

"Oh, look at this, Cal doesn't keep that group in the whole game."

So, am I to believe you'd be happier if he DID play the starting lineup (the same starting lineup so many of you question) more minutes together?

Does not compute.

I just wonder why he starts a lineup. Then NEVER plays them together after the first four minutes of the game? It’s a legitimate question that we will never know the answer to, but a legitimate question all the same.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

I was out of the country for the last 3 games. I wanted to watch all 3 and decided with all the controversy about who starts I wanted to watch for ONE THING. I looked for the starting 5 to play together later in the game. Guess What??? Never happened
Not once. Those 5 started and played about 4 minutes together. 8 minutes at LSU. Then,…. Never on the floor together again until the start of the 2nd half. Four minutes again. Then never again in all 3 second halves. What coach can you ever recall for any team ….ever…. that the starters never play again together for 3 straight games?? What possible motivation does he have to start a lineup he WONT play together again the entire game??? That’s baffling?? If I missed one time don’t cuss me out but watching all 3 the starting 5 never played together again until they started the second half. Then never again after that.

KenPom is fake numbers. He edits out possessions. Nothing to be learned from fake numbers.

 

[Untouchables22]

If it doesn’t matter then why does every single professional basketball team in the world start the game with their best playing rotation of players? Seems like it DOES matter and Cal is patronizing the fans instead of being honest.

 

[IL Wildcat]

I don’t think DJ would get nearly as much grief if he wasn’t starting ahead of Reed. BBN can see who should be starting and they’re not..
I can’t recall any coach doing this four minute thing before, although the drunk BCG did start Coury but I don’t count that.

I completely agree with this. I wonder if Calipari would consider that argument as a reason to start Reed instead? If someone said- you know? If Wagner was coming off the bench, the outcry against him would probably stop immediately. I wonder if that would sway him? Probably not. I wonder if it's become like a superstition at this point?

I've been pointing this out for a couple months now. We almost always have a bad start to both halves and then Sheppard and Dillingham (and recently Big Z) come in and save our bacon. I can't explain it. We know Cal sees it and there must be a reason in his mind. Maybe he thinks Shep and Dilly play better off the bench?? I don't know.

 

[Cats192]

I completely agree with this. I wonder if Calipari would consider that argument as a reason to start Reed instead? If someone said- you know? If Wagner was coming off the bench, the outcry against him would probably stop immediately. I wonder if that would sway him? Probably not. I wonder if it's become like a superstition at this point?

I've been pointing this out for a couple months now. We almost always have a bad start to both halves and then Sheppard and Dillingham (and recently Big Z) come in and save our bacon. I can't explain it. We know Cal sees it and there must be a reason in his mind. Maybe he thinks Shep and Dilly play better off the bench?? I don't know.

Everyone keeps ignoring it when I point it out.

DJ didn't play vs UNC Wilmington. Reed started. We still got off to a slow start. We even lost.

DJ didn't play vs UT. Reed started. We got off to a slow start. We were down 13-3 at 16:38. We lost.

There's this belief that if Cal would end his stubbornness and start Reed, the slow starts would go away. But...it's not the case. We still do it with Reed starting.

 

[Cats192]

I don’t think DJ would get nearly as much grief if he wasn’t starting ahead of Reed. BBN can see who should be starting and they’re not..
I can’t recall any coach doing this four minute thing before, although the drunk BCG did start Coury but I don’t count that.

But, if that's the truth...

The kid isn't forcing Calipari to start him over Reed. Cal's the coach. Cal makes that decision. Why are people giving DJ Grief over a decision he doesn't control?

 

[Blueaz]

I don't read this and think negatively of Cal. It seems like a weird argument

"I'm mad cuz Cal starts inferior players"

"Oh, look at this, Cal doesn't keep that group in the whole game."

So, am I to believe you'd be happier if he DID play the starting lineup (the same starting lineup so many of you question) more minutes together?

Does not compute.

he was mad... facts showed it to be false, so he created a new thing to be made about... very similar thread on HOB. maybe to similar...

 

[IL Wildcat]

Everyone keeps ignoring it when I point it out.

DJ didn't play vs UNC Wilmington. Reed started. We still got off to a slow start. We even lost.

DJ didn't play vs UT. Reed started. We got off to a slow start. We were down 13-3 at 16:38. We lost.

There's this belief that if Cal would end his stubbornness and start Reed, the slow starts would go away. But...it's not the case. We still do it with Reed starting.

Yeah, I remember falling behind to Wilmington. There just never was the run we usually get. I'm not sure what the answer is but I do understand fan frustration. We see the same thing game after game and we think we know how to fix it. I'd love to hear Cal's reasoning.

 

[crestcat]

Everyone keeps ignoring it when I point it out.

DJ didn't play vs UNC Wilmington. Reed started. We still got off to a slow start. We even lost.

DJ didn't play vs UT. Reed started. We got off to a slow start. We were down 13-3 at 16:38. We lost.

There's this belief that if Cal would end his stubbornness and start Reed, the slow starts would go away. But...it's not the case. We still do it with Reed starting.

Just as a Benny making a guess I would suggest perhaps DJ isn’t the only problem. If Reeves is the only scorer on the floor you’re liable to fall behind, I don’t count Reed as a scorer because he seldom shoots early in the game.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

You got stats to back this up or are you just talking out your ass? Because against Auburn the starting five everyone hates so much put Auburn in the hole.

Score when Rob and Reed came off the bench for games since SEC play started.

• Miss. St: Miss. St. lead 7-3 with DJ scoring our only points. The subs then managed to fall even further behind 14-3
• LSU: Tied 16-16
• Alabama: Alabama lead 7-3
• Auburn: UK lead 4-2
• Ole Miss: UK lead 6-5
• Gonzaga: Gonzaga led 7-4 before our first sub, DJ was still hurt and didn't start. Dillingham subbed in and Gonzaga extended their lead to 11-4.
• Vanderbilt: UK led 5-2 when Dillingham first subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Tennessee: Tennessee led 13-3 before our first sub, DJ didn't start.
• Florida: UK led 10-8 when Dillingham subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Arkansas: Arkansas lead 7-3
• South Carolina: UK lead 4-0, Reed and Dillingham sub in and South Carolina goes on a 7-0 run.
• Georgia: Georgia lead 7-6
• Miss St.: UK lead 8-5
• Texas A&M: A&M lead 15-11
• Mizzou: UK lead 19-14
• Florida: UK lead 8-6

Thanks for posting this.

Very informative.

 

[IL Wildcat]

You got stats to back this up or are you just talking out your ass? Because against Auburn the starting five everyone hates so much put Auburn in the hole.

Score when Rob and Reed came off the bench for games since SEC play started.

• Miss. St: Miss. St. lead 7-3 with DJ scoring our only points. The subs then managed to fall even further behind 14-3
• LSU: Tied 16-16
• Alabama: Alabama lead 7-3
• Auburn: UK lead 4-2
• Ole Miss: UK lead 6-5
• Gonzaga: Gonzaga led 7-4 before our first sub, DJ was still hurt and didn't start. Dillingham subbed in and Gonzaga extended their lead to 11-4.
• Vanderbilt: UK led 5-2 when Dillingham first subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Tennessee: Tennessee led 13-3 before our first sub, DJ didn't start.
• Florida: UK led 10-8 when Dillingham subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Arkansas: Arkansas lead 7-3
• South Carolina: UK lead 4-0, Reed and Dillingham sub in and South Carolina goes on a 7-0 run.
• Georgia: Georgia lead 7-6
• Miss St.: UK lead 8-5
• Texas A&M: A&M lead 15-11
• Mizzou: UK lead 19-14
• Florida: UK lead 8-6

Wow! Hard to argue with facts, eh? I will say, I've often "felt" like we're often in a hole before Sheppard and Dillingham come in, but it's clearly not true. It could be that Cal believes those 2 just play better off the bench and the other guys play better as starters.

 

[JumperJack]

fwiw

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When we’re frequently digging out of a hole only to lose by a few points, it matters a lot.

 

[Fitch44]

You'd have to be one hell of an arguer to argue that. Was he better? Sure. But man, it's really hard to argue he's been THE BEST of the guards for any stretch of time. He's hobbled, for sure. But he's also the second best PG on the team and the fourth best guard/wing. But hey, that's nothing to sneeze at given the dudes in front of him. He should/could easily get 20 mins a game backing up the three guards.

Ya, probably an over statement on my part.
But he had some damn good games and was on an upward trajectory, one game being 18pts and 10 assists.

I’m sure he is pressing a bit too seeing the other guys have so much success.
His energy and smiles on the bench tells me he is all in even with his struggles.
But on the court I’m sure he wants to get back to doing what he knows he can.

 

[CRZ4UK]

The problem is not DJ over Reed. The problem is the whole lineup. That’s why he Never plays them again. UGO clogs the lane and can’t score. DJ can’t drive with a clogged lane. Edward does not create his own shot. He needs an assist. Our best assist guys are Reed and Dilly. The starting lineup has one guy who can create… Reeves. That’s why Reed, Dilly Edwards, reeves and UGO/Z should start. Enough guys who can create a shot, assist a shot and play some semblance of defense. The starting 5 should never play together. That’s why those 5 starting is so strange and why he NEVER goes back to it.

 

[Kentucky2022]

fwiw

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The man is a idiot