Model Update Heading to Arkansas

[Aike]

Cats have slipped from what I would call borderline contender to unlikely to compete for a championship.

Still time to right the ship, but they need to get their act together.

Arizona barely clinging to the top spot, but they’ve lost almost their entire cushion.

Top 16:

1. Arizona 3.03
2. Houston 2.98
3. Tennessee 2.68
4. Auburn 2.63
5. Iowa St. 2.62
6. Purdue 2.58
7. Connecticut 2.40
8. Alabama 2.28
9. Kansas 2.26
10. BYU 2.23
11. Marquette 1.88
12. Kentucky 1.85
13. Michigan St. 1.82
14. Colorado 1.78
15. Duke 1.72
16. North Carolina 1.71

Rest of SEC:

24. Mississippi St
37. Mississippi
44. Florida
60. LSU
74. ATM
78. Missouri
81. South Carolina
97. Georgia
111. Arkansas
168. Vanderbilt


I’ve got us favored by 7, which frankly I don’t trust the way we’ve been playing.

 

[Wonky]

Wait… so the Cats are not a title contender but Arizona is? Don’t see that at all.

 

[TheDude73]

Cats have slipped from what I would call borderline contender to unlikely to compete for a championship.

Still time to right the ship, but they need to get their act together.

Arizona barely clinging to the top spot, but they’ve lost almost their entire cushion.

Top 16:

1. Arizona 3.03
2. Houston 2.98
3. Tennessee 2.68
4. Auburn 2.63
5. Iowa St. 2.62
6. Purdue 2.58
7. Connecticut 2.40
8. Alabama 2.28
9. Kansas 2.26
10. BYU 2.23
11. Marquette 1.88
12. Kentucky 1.85
13. Michigan St. 1.82
14. Colorado 1.78
15. Duke 1.72
16. North Carolina 1.71

Rest of SEC:

24. Mississippi St
37. Mississippi
44. Florida
60. LSU
74. ATM
78. Missouri
81. South Carolina
97. Georgia
111. Arkansas
168. Vanderbilt


I’ve got us favored by 7, which frankly I don’t trust the way we’ve been playing.

Sorry dude, the transfer portal and NIL has your model stuck in the past. I think this year the winner and probably even the Final Four will be littered with "wow, didn't see this in my model" commentary.

I actually like this, to be honest. I'm tired of models and statistics saying "no team ranked blah blah blah in this category has ever won it all". I like the balance and competition. Now if only we had a coach that could capitalize on this new way of the game...

 

[TheDude73]

Wait… so the Cats are not a title contender but Arizona is? Don’t see that at all.

Prepare yourself for all the "quad 1 wins, losses, quad 2, quad 18 yadda yadda yadda" excuses.

 

[CrazyCat74]

UK has the talent to play in the last game of the year..

 

[Aike]

Sorry dude, the transfer portal and NIL has your model stuck in the past. I think this year the winner and probably even the Final Four will be littered with "wow, didn't see this in my model" commentary.

I actually like this, to be honest. I'm tired of models and statistics saying "no team ranked blah blah blah in this category has ever won it all". I like the balance and competition. Now if only we had a coach that could capitalize on this new way of the game...

Probably not. Final Four, maybe. The champ is almost always one of a handful of top teams.

You’d probably have to go back to 2014 to find something different, but I wasn’t doing this then.

 

[Aike]

Wait… so the Cats are not a title contender but Arizona is? Don’t see that at all.

We no longer fit the profile of a contender.

Arizona still does, for now.

UCONN was similar last year. Killed it early. Struggled some in conference. Put it together down the stretch.

Will Arizona pull it back together? We’ll see.

“Good” news for us is even one game playing like we are capable and we could be back in the mix. Needs to come soon though.

Seriously, have we looked like a team capable of winning 6 straight to you?

 

[Aike]

UK has the talent to play in the last game of the year..

I agree. We haven’t been playing like it. Cal hasn’t been coaching like it.

 

[blue cincy]

UK has the talent to play in the last game of the year..

Agree. But we are getting a very late start with a full lineup. If Cal tinkers too much like the last game we will see a bunch of losses. Will have a tough path but could still win 6 games.

 

[CrazyCat74]

I agree. We haven’t been playing like it. Cal hasn’t been coaching like it.

Yeah, I figured you would see where I was going with that

 

[CrazyCat74]

Agree. But we are getting a very late start with a full lineup. If Cal tinkers too much like the last game we will see a bunch of losses. Will have a tough path but could still win 6 games.

Agree.

And I believe in "tinkering" to find the right rotations.

I'm just afraid we don't have the right people preparing the boys to be special for 5-6 in a row.

Hope I'm wrong this year because I really like this group with Thiero on the floor

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

Cats have slipped from what I would call borderline contender to unlikely to compete for a championship.

Still time to right the ship, but they need to get their act together.

Arizona barely clinging to the top spot, but they’ve lost almost their entire cushion.

Top 16:

1. Arizona 3.03
2. Houston 2.98
3. Tennessee 2.68
4. Auburn 2.63
5. Iowa St. 2.62
6. Purdue 2.58
7. Connecticut 2.40
8. Alabama 2.28
9. Kansas 2.26
10. BYU 2.23
11. Marquette 1.88
12. Kentucky 1.85
13. Michigan St. 1.82
14. Colorado 1.78
15. Duke 1.72
16. North Carolina 1.71

Rest of SEC:

24. Mississippi St
37. Mississippi
44. Florida
60. LSU
74. ATM
78. Missouri
81. South Carolina
97. Georgia
111. Arkansas
168. Vanderbilt


I’ve got us favored by 7, which frankly I don’t trust the way we’ve been playing.

Sorry, but I have to question any metrics that has Arizona 1st. They are putrid. How do you explain this?

 

[Aike]

Sorry, but I have to question any metrics that has Arizona 1st. They are putrid. How do you explain this?

They started off well and have been falling off the last few weeks.

They have wins over Duke, Michigan St., Alabama, and Wisconsin. Strong SOS.

 

[CBJK]

Sometimes the eye test is worth it's weight in gold. Arizona is not top dive.

 

[Aike]

Sometimes the eye test is worth it's weight in gold. Arizona is not top dive.

Appreciate all you guys setting me straight. Last year it was UCONN who I had rated too high. I also had Purdue and Alabama too low, and boy did everybody let me know it.

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

They started off well and have been falling off the last few weeks.

They have wins over Duke, Michigan St., Alabama, and Wisconsin. Strong SOS.

And yet they have no business at the top of any metric. I put very little value on early season wins or losses. Apparently you give great credence to them.

 

[UKortho]

Appreciate all you guys setting me straight. Last year it was UCONN who I had rated too high. I also had Purdue and Alabama too low, and boy did everybody let me know it.

Appreciate your sharing this. Lots of work/time goes into it no doubt.

 

[Montana81]

They started off well and have been falling off the last few weeks.

They have wins over Duke, Michigan St., Alabama, and Wisconsin. Strong SOS.

What’s the worst loss an eventual champion has taken outside of the 2 Uconn outliers(2011, 2014)?

Because that oregon state loss was ugly.

 

[Fox2monk]

Cats have slipped from what I would call borderline contender to unlikely to compete for a championship.

Still time to right the ship, but they need to get their act together.

Arizona barely clinging to the top spot, but they’ve lost almost their entire cushion.

Top 16:

1. Arizona 3.03
2. Houston 2.98
3. Tennessee 2.68
4. Auburn 2.63
5. Iowa St. 2.62
6. Purdue 2.58
7. Connecticut 2.40
8. Alabama 2.28
9. Kansas 2.26
10. BYU 2.23
11. Marquette 1.88
12. Kentucky 1.85
13. Michigan St. 1.82
14. Colorado 1.78
15. Duke 1.72
16. North Carolina 1.71

Rest of SEC:

24. Mississippi St
37. Mississippi
44. Florida
60. LSU
74. ATM
78. Missouri
81. South Carolina
97. Georgia
111. Arkansas
168. Vanderbilt


I’ve got us favored by 7, which frankly I don’t trust the way we’ve been playing.

I don’t think Arizona is any better than us. Numbers or not.

 

[Fox2monk]

Appreciate all you guys setting me straight. Last year it was UCONN who I had rated too high. I also had Purdue and Alabama too low, and boy did everybody let me know it.

I’m not saying your model is wrong but I just think the numbers this year are not worth as much as least right this moment.

 

[Aike]

And yet they have no business at the top of any metric. I put very little value on early season wins or losses. Apparently you give great credence to them.

I’ve done the math. I’m guessing you haven’t.

 

[Fox2monk]

Sorry dude, the transfer portal and NIL has your model stuck in the past. I think this year the winner and probably even the Final Four will be littered with "wow, didn't see this in my model" commentary.

I actually like this, to be honest. I'm tired of models and statistics saying "no team ranked blah blah blah in this category has ever won it all". I like the balance and competition. Now if only we had a coach that could capitalize on this new way of the game...

I agree to some extent, I think most teams at the top will end up performing better overall but as we all know the tournament is a crap shoot. I could also see a really random final four though too. Lots of 25 year olds have changed that everywhere.

 

[Fox2monk]

Agree.

And I believe in "tinkering" to find the right rotations.

I'm just afraid we don't have the right people preparing the boys to be special for 5-6 in a row.

Hope I'm wrong this year because I really like this group with Thiero on the floor

Let’s see how we start playing with him back in the lineup before we totally wrote our Cats off. Personally I’d rather a little lul now and play our best in March for once again.

 

[Aike]

I’m not saying your model is wrong but I just think the numbers this year are worth as much as least right this moment.

I gave the UCONN example because it seems pretty simple. They were really good last year but when they hit a rough stretch a lot of people were telling me how broken my model was.

I had Purdue rated like 16th. Not bad, just not nearly as good as a lot of people thought they should be. Funnily enough, I didn’t get any apologies when they got knocked out in the first round.

Arizona has gone from a 3.75 to 3.03. That means they are getting worse week by week. So if you are watching how they’re playing now, of course you’ll say they are terrible.

But it’s January. And they already did enough work early to build themselves a bit of a cushion.

Will they rebound or continue to slide? I have no clue. This is a snapshot in time. For all I know they won’t even be in the top 10 when the tournament starts.

Kentucky was as high as 2nd after beating Miami. We are 12th now, which means we’ve been playing a lot worse than that to fall that far.

All I’ll say is that it’s worth paying close attention to the teams who are still near the top of the model on March 17th. The season is a marathon, and the teams who put together the best overall seasons tend to be in the strongest position to make a deep run.

Is that all that matters? Nope. Being healthy matters. Being hot can help. And then you probably need to get a little lucky.

This is one tool. It’s supposed to be fun. Inevitably, Rupp Rafters squeezes the fun out of it every year.

 

[Aike]

I don’t think Arizona is any better than us. Numbers or not.

Maybe not. Both teams appear to be high ceiling/low floor.

 

[shyster51]

Well, I for one appreciate your effort and sharing it. I must admit, at times I’ve looked at some teams and think. That can’t be right. But most of the time, you’re pretty spot on. I appreciate your effort and find it very informative. In fact, I rely on it as much as some of the better know models. I guess what I am fumbling to say is, Thank you!

 

[Aike]

What’s the worst loss an eventual champion has taken outside of the 2 Uconn outliers(2011, 2014)?

Because that oregon state loss was ugly.

Don’t know if it’s the worst, but Michigan St. losing to Wright St. in 99-00 is one I found online.

I agree that losing to Oregon St. is problematic, and I question the mettle of any team taking a loss like that. But it was on the road, and we all know what a mess conference road games can become. I don’t think it’s as bad as our loss to UNCW.

 

[Fox2monk]

I gave the UCONN example because it seems pretty simple. They were really good last year but when they hit a rough stretch a lot of people were telling me how broken my model was.

I had Purdue rated like 16th. Not bad, just not nearly as good as a lot of people thought they should be. Funnily enough, I didn’t get any apologies when they got knocked out in the first round.

Arizona has gone from a 3.75 to 3.03. That means they are getting worse week by week. So if you are watching how they’re playing now, of course you’ll say they are terrible.

But it’s January. And they already did enough work early to build themselves a bit of a cushion.

Will they rebound or continue to slide? I have no clue. This is a snapshot in time. For all I know they won’t even be in the top 10 when the tournament starts.

Kentucky was as high as 2nd after beating Miami. We are 12th now, which means we’ve been playing a lot worse than that to fall that far.

All I’ll say is that it’s worth paying close attention to the teams who are still near the top of the model on March 17th. The season is a marathon, and the teams who put together the best overall seasons tend to be in the strongest position to make a deep run.

Is that all that matters? Nope. Being healthy matters. Being hot can help. And then you probably need to get a little lucky.

This is one tool. It’s supposed to be fun. Inevitably, Rupp Rafters squeezes the fun out of it every year.

I’m not trying to squeeze the fun out of it. Sorry if it came across that way.

 

[Aike]

I’m not trying to squeeze the fun out of it. Sorry if it came across that way.

Na you’re good. I like talking about it. It isn’t right or wrong, it’s just a math problem.

It tends to be better than the eye test, but there are a lot of sharp basketball fans around here. I never discount the eye test completely.

What I will say is that very few people, if any, watch every possession of every team. That’s what the model does. It watches every possession of every team.

So if you watched a team and you thought they looked bad, but the model disagrees, I would maybe question what did the team do in those possessions I didn’t watch?

Some people just get a little nasty, and others just say my math is wrong. But what they’re really saying is that their eye test and my math don’t match. Because they haven’t actually looked at the math.

And no offense, but most of them probably aren’t qualified to look at the math. Which isn’t meant as a knock. I’m probably not qualified to do their jobs either.

 

[Oldbluefart]

Appreciate all you guys setting me straight. Last year it was UCONN who I had rated too high. I also had Purdue and Alabama too low, and boy did everybody let me know it.

Aike: I appreciate your work. Just like in life, anything can happen to alter the course a team is on. No mater what, someone will always find fault in what you say or do.
If anyone does not agree with your model, all they have to do is stop reading it. Very simple.
Again, thanks.

 

[CBJK]

Where is the model? I see teams with numbers next to them. Some people may think the model is hollow and fake without the showing how the model works. Peel back the curtain a smidgen maybe?

 

[Aike]

Where is the model? I see teams with numbers next to them. Some people may think the model is hollow and fake without the showing how the model works. Peel back the curtain a smidgen maybe?

I’ve explained the process (how it works) in detail in prior years. Someone wants to know they can search.

I haven’t and won’t share mathematical specifics. If someone thinks that makes it hollow or fake, I guess I’ll have to live with the disappointment.

 

[Fox2monk]

I’ve explained the process (how it works) in detail in prior years. Someone wants to know they can search.

I haven’t and won’t share mathematical specifics. If someone thinks that makes it hollow or fake, I guess I’ll have to live with the disappointment.

I would like to see you run the model or use it to make a bracket when the field is released and compare the results of each matchup to how it ends overall. That would be cool data.

 

[kywildcats4life]

Model is completely unrealistic.

 

[Emarc]

Appreciate you doing this. Interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[Aike]

Model is completely unrealistic.

You are completely unrealistic

 

[kartmd]

I live in Arizona and share your model updates with a buddy here who is a huge AZ fan. He thinks your model is the greatest thing ever lol

 

[Aike]

I live in Arizona and share your model updates with a buddy here who is a huge AZ fan. He thinks your model is the greatest thing ever lol

Haha yeah I bet

 

[Fox2monk]

Model is completely unrealistic.

How so? Most people don’t even know what it entails. I don’t even know 100% just from what I remember from around 2018 when he really talked about it. If it was ran thru statical analysis then it’s easy to tell if it’s significant or not. I’m sure after all these years he has and refined it even more. Regardless even having numbers comparing teams in multiple categories thru-out the year will give a better indication of team strength than not doing it.

 

[Aike]

How so? Most people don’t even know what it entails. I don’t even know 100% just from what I remember from around 2018 when he really talked about it. If it was ran thru statical analysis then it’s easy to tell if it’s significant or not. I’m sure after all these years he has and refined it even more. Regardless even having numbers comparing teams in multiple categories thru-out the year will give a better indication of team strength than not doing it.

Yeah it’s a “good” and statistically significant measure of how teams are performing, but more importantly, how you might expect them to do in the tournament. It isn’t perfect, because nothing is.

The old adage about statistical models is that all are wrong, but some are useful.